Saturday, July 16, 2005

Stage 14: WTF?!

I'm happy that Jason thinks this stage proves Ullrich's mettle. he apologizes for doubting Ullrich's skill, and I think he's right in that. ullrich has proven himself to be the strongest member of T-Mobile. He's also shown himself to have the tactics of a petulant child. I'm just going to quote the offficial Tour website:

There’s no doubt that the German is strong. He was one of just four riders who could stay with Lance on the way up the Pailheres climb. Also in the mix were Ivan Basso and two more Americans, Floyd Landis and Levi Leipheimer. This quintet eliminated Kloden, Vinokourov, Mancebo, Mickael Rasmussen and Cadel Evans from the program today. Although these stars would return for the final climb they would vanish again after a bizarre scene which illustrated T-Mobile’s stupidity.

Vinokourov proved his fighting spirit by wrestling his way into the lead group before the final mountain. He then bolted ahead to repeat his role from the previous climb – namely to hit the turbo and force his team’s rivals to do the work to reel him in. Perhaps the consistent and aggressive Basso would take the bait. Maybe even Evans could have a go and chase his former team-mates down. Why not Mancebo once again? It was a tactic dreamed up to taunt Armstrong but the American didn’t need to do anything. Why? Because Ullrich and Kloden teamed up and set off in pursuit of their colleague. Huh?!

...

Bravo Totschnig, you achieved a coup. And touché Armstrong, you are indeed a unique champion. But Ullrich… why must you insist on losing this race you know you can win?


That pretty much sums it up. What the fuck? Why attack your own teammate when he attacks? Is this the bizarre Make My Teammates Want to Kill Me strategy? Seriously? What is gained by this? What is the point? Yes, I know Vino died, but perhaps his break would have either suckered Armstrong into the chase or, even better, work outright. Instaed, there was no bait and there was no break. T-Mobile gobbled up their own.

It was arguably the dumbest tactical decision I have ever seen.

And this is why Armstrong wins. Not because he is the strongest, though he is, but because his rivals insist on doing absolutely stupid things. This was the absolute perfect stage to maybe pick up some time on Armstrong. How often do you break his team before the final climb? He was isolated and alone. The nonstop attacking on Port de Pailheres robbed Lance of any support. They just couldn't respond to every single attack and set that methodical pace.

So, on the final climb, Armstrong is without his billy goats. The only riers with him are an exclusive who's who of contenders: Ullrich, Kloden, Basso, Leipheimer, Mancebo, Landis, Evans, Rasmussen, Vinokourov, and Kloden (with Totschnig alone up front). I mean, that's put up or shut up time.

If any contender was going to put time into Lance and win this Tour de France, this was really the time. The situation will never be better. This was it, this was the chance to steal the yellow jersey. And they blew it. They instead spent time attacking each other and forcing their own teammates to expend energy, instead of making Armstrong react ot the attacks.

Ullrich rode not to win the race, he rode for a spot on the podium, and to keep his domestiques off of it. He made tactical decisions which will prevent him, or anyone else, from beating Lance Armstrong in his quest for a seventh maillot jaune. In the end, Armstrong didn't need any teammates to ride for him, for he had a superdomestique by the name of Jan Ullrich.

In Paris, I hope Lance thanks Jan for all of the hard work on his behalf.

We were wrong about Ullrich!

Jan Ullrich is the strongest man on Telekom and we were wrong to doubt him. Vinokourov won a stage, and Kloden came an inch away from winning one, but they have both shown more weakness. Jan has been consistently strong. He has been methodical in the mountains and has not cracked. I’m not going to criticize him for failing to match Armsrong’s push in the final kilometer—Jan isn’t an explosive climber. He’s not going to win, but he’s having a very strong Tour. He’s the best on his team and a podium finish is within reach.

Telekom is still dysfunctional. The attack they pulled on the climb over the Porte de Pailheres was a great piece of teamwork. Guerini set a pace that Lance’s team could not match, rendering them useless. Nardello was up the road in the breakaway, which meant he was available to help briefly when they caught him. The attacks from the big three blew the pack apart and forced Lance to ride hard before he wanted to. Great teamwork, and the only example they have shown. Naturally, they screwed it up on the next climb. Vino attacked. Ullrich and Kloden bridged the gap; Lance just followed Ullrich’s wheel. It’s as though Vinokourov has no team. Kloden and Ullrich work together, and even against Vinokourov. Vino works with no one and just attacks until he’s out of energy, which has been pretty soon and frequent in this Tour.

A couple years ago the other guy who writes on this page examined the idea of the GC men of several teams ganging up in Lance. Telekom’s team isn’t far off that model, and we can see how it works. It doesn’t work if none of the attackers are as strong as the guy they are attacking. I’ll illustrate with quotes.
Ullrich: "It was our plan to attack early because you do not take time off Lance in the final climb."
Armstrong: “But the other side is that when you ride like that, nobody stays around long. You quickly not only eliminate your rivals but you also eliminate your team.”

The only way I could see this tactic working would be if another rider were just riding on Armstrong’s wheel and not expending the energy for the attacks. Of course, he’d get pretty tired too in the process. Ivan Basso fits the profile, but it’s not as though anyone suspects he’s in league with the brilliant tacticians of Telekom.

Still, it was a brilliant race to watch, much more exciting than watching the USPS/Discovery boys chew up the field until no one is left to challenge. The Telekom guys are to be commended for fighting tooth and nail. Plus they are promising more tomorrow, ‘cause it’s better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.

Aside from the yellow jersey race, Telekom crushed everyone today in the team time. They started the day in second, trailing CSC by 2 minutes, but now they have the lead by 6 minutes. Can CSC overtake them? They are not better in the mountains, and they might not be better at the time trial without Zabriskie. But they are very good at sending guys up into breakaways, so maybe they’ll try that next week. But they’ll miss Jens Voigt.

***********
Hooray for Georg Totschnig. He’s been a solid rider who never won anything, but now he’s got the satisfaction of an epic stage win. This is the year of the massive breakaway. Totschnig was the last of a breakaway that lasted over 200 km. Had that climb been another kilometer longer, Totschnig would have been caught, but it wasn’t and he had what it took to finish.

OLN didn’t make a big deal of this, but Popovych was falling behind Andrey Kashechkin on the first climb, but he caught him and passed him on the second climb. Popovych ended up with an extra 2:29 on his lead, and that should make his white jersey fit a little more comfortably.

Landis and Leipheimer are really riding well in the mountains. I thought it was a bit of a stretch to consider Floyd Landis a team leader before the Tour started, but he has proved me wrong too.

OK, let’s look at the leader board.

1) Armstrong
2) Rasmussen, at 1:41
3) Basso, at 2:46
4) Ullrich, at 4:34
5) Leipheimer, at 4:45
6) Landis, at 5:03
7) Mancebo, at 5:03
8) Klöden, at 5:38

These are the guys with a shot at the podium. I don’t think Rasmussen is going to make it. He showed a slight weakness today, but the big problem for him is the time trial. In stage 1 he was 174th, losing 3:14 in a 19 km time trial. He was so bad, he only beat Iban Mayo by a second. He can console himself with his 84 point lead in the KoM race. Basso looks good for the podium. He’s been riding well in the mountains and his time trialing has improved a lot since last year. I don’t see him losing that much time. If Ullrich stays strong in the mountains, he’ll get on the podium in Paris. That’s why the guys behind him have to make a move in stage 15. Leipheimer is only 11 seconds away from Ullrich and he’s a great time trialist, so my sleeper pick for the podium still has a decent shot.

*************
One more thing about stage 13. Sylvain Chavanel is a dork. He and Horner were caught about 400 meters from the finish line. It might not have happened if Chavanel had not eased the pace to keep an eye on Horner. Instead of racing to beat the peloton to the line, he slowed to out-maneuver Horner and it cost both of them the stage win. Dork! Horner should throw a water bottle at Chavanel, not Carlos DaCruz. It's worth the fine.

Friday, July 15, 2005

Stage 13 & beyond

It was supposed to be a day for the breakaway, but Lotto did a great job of chasing down every last man so that McEwen could win the stage. Chris Horner's breakaway was over 150 km, and it really sucks to get caught in the last kilometer, but as that other guy who writes on this page likes to say, tough noogies. McEwen grabbed 35 points today, and O'Grady got 30 for his second place finish, but Thor was 5th, worth 22 points. That gap tightens things up a bit, but Thor still has a decent lead.

Hushovd 164
O'Grady 150
McEwen 142

Hushovd has shown he can beat O'Grady, but McEwen is beating both like a drum. The lead now is such that he has some margin for error, but not a whole lot.

The other big development was that Valverde abandoned because of illness & a knee injury. He loses the white jersey and Banesto loses any hope of winning the team competition. Mancebo, Karpets, and Valverde were to be their 3-headed monster in the mountains. Karpets was bad in the Alps. Even if he becomes strong in the Pyrenees, they can't catch CSC.

Yaroslav Popovych inherits the white jersey and holds a 7 second lead on Andrey Kashechkin. No one else is close. Popovych shouldn't be distracted. If he does his job of riding with Lance, he'll win this thing.

Stage 14 might be the most pivotal of the Tour. Take a look at the profile. Two intermediate sprints on the flat road should get the attention of the green jersey contenders. After that, the GC race is on. In the last 45 km we have an HC climb of 15.2 km at 8%, followed by a finish at top of a category 1 climb of 9.1 km at 7.3%. Anyone who wants to make a move in the GC should do it then. I think it will be the right place for Armstrong to take a stage win and put a choke hold on everyone else.

Thursday, July 14, 2005

Stage 12: Vive La France!

Well, it hasn't been a bang-up Tour for the French. They have no real threat for any jersey, though Moreau is still in third in the GC, so we can safely say he's a podium shot. But going in to today they had no stage wins, a pretty embarrassing shut out. While the Italians and Spanish dominate their national Grand Tour, the French just host the party. It's the other countries supplying the talent.

So its nice to say David Moncoutie win a stage, particularly in Bastille Day. The French need something, anything, to cheer about. It was a stage built for a breakaway, lots of rolling hills on a day sandwiched in between mountain stages so the big guns would eb resting up a bit. This takes nothing away from Moncoutie, but he chose the perfect day for a break. It was almost guarranteed to succeed. Good for him.

Of course, the big news is that Tom Boonen withdrew from the race. I'll give Boonen credit, it wasn't that he saw the mountains and packed up his bike. He rode hard in the mountains, but he really had some lousy luck and looked like he was just killing himself. He just crashed too often. I give Petacchi a hard time for dropping out at the drop of the hat, but that is not what happened here. He defended the jersey, but the body just gave out.

Which means we have to re-evaluate the Green Jersey. I don't think anyone disputes that McEwen is the best pure sprinter left, but he's down 35 points. That's a lot. Hushovd doesn't have to beat McEwen, he just has to not lose really, really badly. O'Grady's down 23 points, which is about the edge of striking distance.

Let's look at the remaining course from a sprinter's point of view
Stage 13 is a sprinter's stage. All flat, with two intermediates as well. Plenty of points out there. Stage 14's got some brutal climbs, but the first 80km is pretty darn flat, and there are two sprints. It's probably worth risking the exhaustion to get on an early break and get those points. Stage 15 is built the same exact way. Early flats followed by some brutal climbs. given the sheer number of Category 1 climbs, the early break strategy is not as suited for this stage.

Stage 17 is much like today's rolling hills, while Stage 18 is a more extreme version. Almost no opportunity there. Then there won't really be a chance until the last day in Paris, Stage 21. This means that if you're going to make a move on Hushovd, you have to do it tommorrow or early the next day. McEwen and O'Grady are thinking attack, attack, attack. Hushovd's thinking about staying upright on his bike.

Which makes him a huge favorite at this point.

Bastille Day Fun

All of France can be happy that a Frenchman got the stage win on Bastille Day. Even I'm happy for them. They host the coolest race in the world, but they suck at it. It's been 20 years since one of their own won and I think they've only had one guy finish on the podium in the last decade (I'll check on that). So, congrats to France, and I'm really glad it wasn't Virenque.

David Moncoutie is a pretty good stage rider. He has no chance in the GC, not even the French build him up as such. This is his third stage win, which doesn't seem like a ton, but don't forget about the quality of French cycling (see above). On the one hand, it was a good time to strike because it was a non-dramatic course set between the big mountain stages. A breakaway was bound to get loose. On the other hand, to beat the dozen guys in the breakaway he had to ride smart enough to get rid of the sprinters, then, everyone else, but not too soon. Nice race!

The green jersey race metamorphosized today with the withdrawl of Boonen. Unlike Petacchi, he had a real reason to quit. Last week he hurt his back in a crash, and he busted his knee in a fall during one of the climbs. OK, we'll cut Tom a little slack. Thor Hushovd inherits the green jersey now, and he's earned it after busting his butt the last couple stages. I figured his solo ride in the Alps would destroy his legs, but he came back for more today. Thor and O'Grady both struggled through the hills to join the breakaway, but they got the reward of picking up more points at the finish than McEwen. Now Thor has a 22 point lead on O'Grady and a 35 point lead on McEwen.

1) Scrambling for points makes a difference. See above.
2) McEwen had to feel like a moron when he sent his team up to chase Thor & O'Grady, only to find that they couldn't reel 'em in. Doh!
3) In the remaining bunch sprints McEwen will probably beat Thor & O'Grady every time, but so long as they are close behind, they'll score enough to keep ahead.
4) Besides, there are a couple more rolling hill stages just like stage 12 in the final week. If McEwen doesn't show an interest but Thor & O'Grady do, he'll never catch up.
5) My wife wants to name our first boy Thor. She also wants to give him an Indian middle name. I think she smokes crack.

Juan Garate finally showed up. His disappearing act in the Alps made me look bad. He picked up a handful of points on the little climbs today, but he's so far down it's not funny. Where were you man? It's a bit late now.

Manuel Beltran crashed out today. It's been years since Lance's team lost a guy. This won't make the difference in the race, but that's an excellent domestique going down. If any team can make up for it, this is the one.

Wednesday, July 13, 2005

Stages 10 &11: Two Days in the Mountains

Nothing like some mountains to sort out the contenders.

Armstrong's in yellow, Rasmussen's in dots, T-Mobile is in tatters, Valverde's in white, Voigt's out of the race, and we've got one hell of a race on our hands. Armstrong's up by 38 seconds on Rasmussen. He can reasonably expect to extend that on a time trial, but its close enough that Discovery's got to be nervous. Rasmussen hung with the pace for two days on the toughest climbs. Behind him, Moreau is 2:34 and Basso is 2:40 behind, respectively. Only four more riders are within four minutes an just another four with in five.

We're so used to Armstrong blowing up the field, this feels extraordinarily close, even though we know its not. Barring a crash, there's almost no chance of Armstrong losing that much time to anyone. However, if some misfortune should befall him: a crash, a really bad climb, something... then it is wide open. But Armstrong just doesn't seem to have bad days.

Rasmussen's waking up each morning and pinching himself. He's close to the lead in the GC, but he's come about as close to saying "I have no chance of winning the yellow jersey" as is appropriate. But he is just killing people for the climbing points. Ever since taking that huge 48 point lead in Stage 9, he's concentrated on the dots. His lead is up to 71, and he's making sure to get points on every major climb. He stuck with Lance on Stage 10 right up until the last kilometer, and happily picked up 22 points. On Stage 11, Moreau raced him to the pinnacle on both climbs to pick up a grand total of three points on Rasmussen. He's come in right behind to minimize the damage each time. I'm not sure how he can lose the dots, but I'm sure its possible.

What's going on with Illes Balears? They had two riders in the top four on the brutal Stage 10, including stage winner Alejandro Valverde. Francisco Mancebo's finally living up to some of that white jersey-winning promise. They actually followed it up by finishing with the yellow jersey today. They didn't burn themselves out on that one big day, it seems their progress is legit. Mancebo's in eighth (-4:00) and Valverde's in fifth (-3:16) overall. Seriously, neither is out of it, the only team with two legit contenders. What were the odds we'd say that after Stage 11?

Why can they say that? Because T-Mobile got their ass kicked. Actually, that's unfair, T-Mobile had a pretty good day overall, its just that none of their riders finished within two minutes of Armstrong. Of course, only five teams did. They had a decent day, just not a great one. Unfortunately, the standard for T-Mobile is excellence, and they didn't live up. If Team Phonak would have had two riders finish 2:14 behind the stage winner, we'd say they had a really good day. And that's not to pick on Phonak, Phonak's a damn good team. Instead they had one rider (Landis) finish 2:14 down and another finish (Botero) finish down 2:50. But you don't hear anyone talking about Phonak's bad Stage 10.

T-Mobile's got a rider in 9th, 10th, and 12th. That's pretty good, but at this point, you can pretty much say they have no shot at winning the yellow jersey. One guy might make a run at the podium, but its asking too much to pick up 4:02 on Armstrong while, and this is the important part, leap-frogging seven other riders. Down four minutes in 2nd is completely different than down four minutes in 9th. Adding insult to injury, T-Mobile's team time is still second to Team CSC. They can't even win that.

How's that decision to leave Zabel at home looking?

Finally, let's get into the guys who just got punished. Voigt finished outside the time limit, so he is out of the race. Both CSC riders to wear yellow are no longer riding. Maybe Basso shouldn't win the thing or he'd get struck by lightning.

There are six riders two hours out of first. You know how good you have to be to lose to Armstrong by two hours? 167 riders left.

Tuesday, July 12, 2005

An explosion on Tuesday's stage

I expected a great showdown in stage 10, but I wasn't expecteding Vinokourov to fizzle out harmlessly, nor was I expecting Discovery would go so soon. That was a massive surge that started about 15 km from the finish--a veritable light year in climbing terms. Let's take stock of the damage. Valverde crossed the line first, with Armstrong getting the same time. Mancebo and Rasmussen were 9 seconds away. And then...

5) Ivan Basso, at 1:02
6) Levi Leipheimer, at 1:15
9) Andreas Klöden, at 2:14
11) Floyd Landis, s.t.
13) Jan Ullrich, s.t.
14) Jorg Jaksch, at 2:19
15) Santiago Botero at 2:50
16) Christophe Moreau at 2:58
19) Yaroslav Popovych 03:59
24) Alexandre Vinokourov 05:18
33) Vladimir Karpets 06:38
37) Oscar Pereiro Sio 07:29
42) Roberto Heras 09:49
97) Iban Mayo 21:31

Mayo can complain about knee pain all he wants, but he sucked. He'll abandon tomorrow.

Why can't Heras ride the mountains anymore? It's as though he lost all his talent when he left USPS.

Oscar Pereiro just learned why a climber shouldn't burn off his legs on the flats. When you attack on the penultimate climb and continue on the flat, you burn yourself out for the final climb. And he finished behind both of his in-team rivals.

Vlad Karpets--what's the matter, don't you like the white jersey?

Popovych made a great recovery after the his crash. He was the last of Lance's domestiques today, and he made a masochistic surge that separated the top 4 from the rest of the elite climbers. Why is it that newcomers to Lance's team do so well as domestiques? Heras and Beltran both had their best moments as domestiques in their first tours with Lance. Now Popovych is outlasting the aces like Azevedo, Rubiera, and Beltran. How does this happen--are the rookies just too naive and willing to take punishment?

Jorg Jaksch was on the attack with Pereiro, but it's OK because 1) he's not a GC man or a climber and 2) he beat Pereiro by 5 minutes.

Ullrich, Kloden, Leipheimer, and Basso all did well to hang on. Really, they did strong rides, just not as strong as the lead group.

But what about Vinokourov? He lost 3 minutes to his rival teammates, so his claim to team leader is gone. What will he do now? Play domestique? Abandon? Go for a stage win?

Mancebo was great today, but I remember last year he was great in the early mountains but weak in the later ones, so we'll have to wait and see if he gets any better this year. Valverde now owns the white jersey and could keep it all the way to Paris.

Rasmussen is the revelation of the Tour. At 38 seconds behind Armstrong, he's the only guy within 2.5 minutes of the lead. He says he's just interested in the KoM competition, but he now has a problem. While he has a huge lead in the KoM, he's now a marked man. He can't race ahead of the peloton to pick up the points on Wednesday's climbs, so unless Rabobank rides tempo to cut down the breakaways, someone else is getting those points. Today there is no competition, but by the end of the day tomorrow, there might be. And if he doesn't fall in the standings, the same may be true when we get to the big climbs next weekend. Most riders wish they had his problems.

Armstrong did his usual rip-their-heart-out routine to put a lot of time on the rivals. He did the smart thing by not trying to drop Rasmussen, Velverde, and Mancebo. Had he been alone 10 km from the finish, he would have worn down and probably slid back. In exchange of the stage win, he got more time on Ullrich & Co.

This thing ain't over yet, but it sure looks familiar.

Monday, July 11, 2005

Rest Day Team Meetings

A look into the team meetings, starting from the back of the standings:

DOMINA VACANZE (Iglinsky, 58, -8:36)

“OK, Honchar was our only hope to win anything and he just withdrew. We have exactly two riders in the top 100, and you guys are so obscure we don’t even know who you are. We’re thinking about having the team charter malfunction and not even suit up for Stage 10. Let’s try and remind people we’re better than BigMat ever was.”

AG2R (Astarloza, 57, -8:32)

“Um, Nazon? What’s up? Aren’t you supposed to be a sprinter? We weren’t asking you to win this thing, but you’re in 29th in the Green Jersey competition. You’re making us look bad. We keep doing lead-outs and everything, so this is getting embarrassing. Could you make it through the Alps and maybe win a flat stage next week? OK, top three.”

COFIDIS (Moncoutie, 55, -8:27)

“O’Grady’s back in this thing. He’s 24 points behind Boonen, which isn’t good, but at least he’s in third. Our first option is to hope Boonen drops out. The second is to contest every single point left out there. Try and hit those early sprints in every stage, and then protect Stu on the climbs. Keep him in the Autobus at least. If he makes it through the mountains, we still have a shot at this thing. Oh yeah, we’re sending two large men over to McEwen’s place to leave a horse’s head in his bed.”

EUSKATEL (Mayo, 51, 8:06)

“We’re screwed.”

BOUYGUES TELECOM (Brochard, 49, -7:58)

“We held a jersey for a whole day. Sure, it was the polka dots before a single climb, but a jersey’s a jersey. Way to go, Voeckler. Let’s call this Tour a success!”

LAMPRE (Petrov, 45, -7:35)

“Do we even have goals? Stage wins? Not getting embarrassed like those chumps in Euskatel? I mean, have the decency to sneak in here quietly and try to escape attention. That way, when you fail, no one notices. So that’s the plan. Total media silence.”

SAUNIER DUVAL (Horner, 43, -7:12)

“Horner’s keeping us credible. But we have absolutely no riders who can protect him in the mountains. So, the first two days are gonna be a dogfight among the contenders, just try and hang out and lose a minimum amount of time. That should give you the chance to attack on the next few days and maybe steal a stage. Solo breakway! It’s our only hope.”

FDJ (McGee, 38, -6:30)

“Great job, guys! Terrific leadouts! You’re really doing a good job controlling the peleton and getting sprinters in position for the final hundred meters. I couldn’t be prouder of this team. Well, other than the fact no one knows who we’re doing these leadouts for. Really, does anyone know? Why are we bothering to control the peleton to set up some guy on another team?”

QUICKSTEP (Rogers, 37, -6:29)

“Nothing personal, Rogers. You’re a good rider and one of these days we may ride in support of you, but we’re saving the team for Boonen. We wanted to put this thing on ice, but that stupid crash allowed that crazy Norwegian back in things. It’s a joke Boonen’s only up 5 points, so we have to save our legs for the final week. We’d love to ride in support of you, Rogers. You’re young, though. You’ll have a chance to win this thing in a few years. Just get some experience, try and stay near the front, and learn from the big dogs up front. We’re investing everything in our sprinter. If you haven’t noticed, we don’t win things too often around here.”

LIQUIGAS (Garzelli, 33, -6:26)

“We’re not winning this thing, but Garzelli’s doing pretty well. Think you can make a run at the top ten? We can give you a little bit of support, but not much. Come to think of it, why not rest for next year’s Giro?”

LOTTO (Evans, 25, -5:47)

“Evans, good idea to align yourself with Rogers in the mountains. You guys can help each other out, because you ain’t getting any from the rest of us. How is that muzzle for McEwen going? All right, Robbie? Don’t talk, don’t think. You only hurt the team when you try to use your head. You’re not completely out of it, but you can’t do anything stupid. Nevermind, we’re out of it.”

FASSA BORTOLO (Frigo, 22, -5:20)

“We won a stage. I’m satisfied, are you? Good. Now go out there and finish.”

LIBERTY SEGUROS (Beloki, 18, -5:01)

“Beloki and Heras both have a shot at the top ten. You guys need to ride in support of one another, we’re going to have to play this by ear. Whichever one of you I feeling stronger once we hit the big climbs is our man, and we can give you some support. Jaksche’s pretty good, guys. Use him. Screw it. Let’s attack tomorrow. It’s our only real shot. Why be reactive? Let’s take it to them.”

GEROLSTEINER (Leipheimer, 16, -4:49)

“Two and a half minutes down to Lance? That’s doable. Totschnig’s already said he doesn’t have the legs, but we’re still going to ask him to do what he can in support. We have a run of top ten finishes to defend. We’re not going to stop now that we’re this close. I want a podium finish. Just hang with that top group.”

ILLES BALEARS (Karpets, 13, -4:31)

“Popovych isn’t going to contest the white jersey. He’s gonna play billy goat for Lance, so all we have to do is play this conservatively. Menchov still has a shot at the top ten, so we have to worry about that as well. Let’s make sure we always have great young riders who never fully live up to their potential.”

PHONAK (Landis, 12, -4:08)

“No one is paying any attention to us. This is great. Landis and Botero are within striking distance, and everyone’s still talking about CSC and T-Mobile. Hell, Rabobank’s getting more attention than we are. So let’s keep this up. Stay under the radar. Let these other teams kill each other off. We’re strong enough to still be standing.”

T-MOBILE (Vinokourov, 5, -3:20)

“We’ve got three guys in the top 11. So Ullrich, shut your piehole and accept that Vino and Kloden aren’t your domestiques anymore. There’s three of you and only one Armstrong, so we’re going to attack these next two days. Constant aggression. I want a neon pink jersey at the front of the climb at least half of the time. I don’t care who it is, I’d prefer if it was all three of you guys. Yes, that means working together. Get to the front, you’ll see your face on TV.”

RABOBANK (Rasmussen, 4, -2:43)

“Rasmussen? You’re no longer supporting Menchov. You’re now riding for the polka dots. You’ll have to stick with the leaders, but they’ll let you pick up the oints at the peak if you don’t try and win the stage. We’ll see how we can get a third stage win next week.”

DISCOVERY (Armstrong, 3, -2:18)

“It’s time to win this thing. No excuses. Let’s bring the pain.”

CREDIT AGRICOLE (Moreau, 2, -1:50)

“We’re as surprised as you, Christophe. Who does this Rasmussen guy think he is? Doesn’t he know the French need their token jersey? I thought it was agreed you were going to get dots. I agree, it’s not fair. We’re filing a protest right now.”

TEAM CSC (Voigt, 1, ---)

“You had fun, Voigt? OK, now you have to ride in support again. It’s okay, we’ll let you breakway again in a few days. Basso? Julich? Ready to launch the assault? Let’s keep the maillot jaune in the team.”

Stage 9: Rasmussen's Solo

Jesus Christ. What else can you say about a solo breakway that began just 4km into 171km stage? 167km solo breakaways aren't supposed to work. OK, he rode with Cioni for an hour before attacking his only companion because he wasn't riding fast enough. But this stage win was simply epic. Rasmussen just obliterated the field, and now he has a huge lead in the KoM contest.

All of the contenders sat back, which allowed Jens Voigt and Christophe Moreau to launch a fairly successful counter-attack. Both passed Armstrong in the GC, and Voigt's now in yellow. Voigt will get to wear the maillot jaune for precisely one stage, and I think even he knows it. But CSC's now had two guys in the lead, and Basso hasn't been one of them. Unfortunately, Zabriskie withdrew during the stage, so they lost the other rider who had held the lead.

All of the post-race talk centered around Voigt and Rasmussen, and rightfully so. That's the overall leader and the stage winner, the day's two big winners. But what about Moreau? He's not a chump, he actually has some chance, however remote, of winning the Tour. The ultimate disrespect to Moreau is that no one cares he's ahead of Armstrong. He's the captain of Credit Agricole, he's supposed to be a real contender, yet Armstrong lets him ride on a huge break?

Kinda tells you Lance thinks about as much of Moreau as we do.

Sunday, July 10, 2005

Rabobank--strong in the mountains

I couldn't resist such a goofy title. Rabobank might be the longest running team in the TdF. Their MO has been to send a bunch of Dutch riders who compete in the flat stages and disappear in the mountains. Now that this Tour has had a sample of mountains, they look like freaking billy goats. Two moutain stages, two stage wins. Mickael Rasmussen's stage 9 win was about as impressive an individual effort as you'll ever see. He left the peloton about 5 km after the start to get a measley 4 points on the first climb. He rode ahead of the first chase group with Dario Cioni until Cioni couldn't hold the pace on the category 1 climb. After that, Rasmussen was solo for the final 70 km. After 167 km at the front of the race, he finished 3 minutes ahead of Voigt and Moreau, the remains of the chase group, and 6 minutes ahead of the peloton. Rasmussen scored the maximum 56 climbing points by winning every climb of the day. He now has 88 points to Moreau's 40. That's a huge lead, but it's not safe with so many climbs remaining.

Jens Voigt finally got the green light from his team to go on the attack. He was just a minute behind Armstrong to start the day, but now he wears the yellow jersey. That's a nice reward for a rider who always busts his butt in the long breakaways.

Back in the peloton the big guns played it safe. None of the contenders made an attack, and Discovery wasn't inclined to put up much of a chase on the leaders. Everyone is waiting for the showdown on Tuesday. The loss of the yellow jersey shouldn't bother Armstrong too much, as he's just 2:18 off Voigt's lead and 28 seconds behind Moreau. I've got a feeling neither one will be atop the standings Tuesday.

Sprint points in the moutains?
The finish was flat, but the green jersey contenders were all going easy in the Autobus. All but Stuart O'Grady. He made it up to the yellow jersey group and took 4th place on the stage while Boonen, Hushovd, and McEwen were still a few km behind. That's a steal of 18 points for O'Grady, who jumps McEwen in the standings, third place, 24 points behind Boonen.

How is Discovery?
Whatever problem they had yesterday (if they really had one) wasn't bothering them today. For a while all 9 were at the front of the peloton during the climbs, and 7 of 9 finished in the yellow jersey peloton. That doesn't seem like a bad day. Of course, this was a routine climbing day. The real tests start Tuesday and Wednesday.
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