We were wrong about Ullrich!
Jan Ullrich is the strongest man on Telekom and we were wrong to doubt him. Vinokourov won a stage, and Kloden came an inch away from winning one, but they have both shown more weakness. Jan has been consistently strong. He has been methodical in the mountains and has not cracked. I’m not going to criticize him for failing to match Armsrong’s push in the final kilometer—Jan isn’t an explosive climber. He’s not going to win, but he’s having a very strong Tour. He’s the best on his team and a podium finish is within reach.
Telekom is still dysfunctional. The attack they pulled on the climb over the Porte de Pailheres was a great piece of teamwork. Guerini set a pace that Lance’s team could not match, rendering them useless. Nardello was up the road in the breakaway, which meant he was available to help briefly when they caught him. The attacks from the big three blew the pack apart and forced Lance to ride hard before he wanted to. Great teamwork, and the only example they have shown. Naturally, they screwed it up on the next climb. Vino attacked. Ullrich and Kloden bridged the gap; Lance just followed Ullrich’s wheel. It’s as though Vinokourov has no team. Kloden and Ullrich work together, and even against Vinokourov. Vino works with no one and just attacks until he’s out of energy, which has been pretty soon and frequent in this Tour.
A couple years ago the other guy who writes on this page examined the idea of the GC men of several teams ganging up in Lance. Telekom’s team isn’t far off that model, and we can see how it works. It doesn’t work if none of the attackers are as strong as the guy they are attacking. I’ll illustrate with quotes.
Ullrich: "It was our plan to attack early because you do not take time off Lance in the final climb."
Armstrong: “But the other side is that when you ride like that, nobody stays around long. You quickly not only eliminate your rivals but you also eliminate your team.”
The only way I could see this tactic working would be if another rider were just riding on Armstrong’s wheel and not expending the energy for the attacks. Of course, he’d get pretty tired too in the process. Ivan Basso fits the profile, but it’s not as though anyone suspects he’s in league with the brilliant tacticians of Telekom.
Still, it was a brilliant race to watch, much more exciting than watching the USPS/Discovery boys chew up the field until no one is left to challenge. The Telekom guys are to be commended for fighting tooth and nail. Plus they are promising more tomorrow, ‘cause it’s better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.
Aside from the yellow jersey race, Telekom crushed everyone today in the team time. They started the day in second, trailing CSC by 2 minutes, but now they have the lead by 6 minutes. Can CSC overtake them? They are not better in the mountains, and they might not be better at the time trial without Zabriskie. But they are very good at sending guys up into breakaways, so maybe they’ll try that next week. But they’ll miss Jens Voigt.
***********
Hooray for Georg Totschnig. He’s been a solid rider who never won anything, but now he’s got the satisfaction of an epic stage win. This is the year of the massive breakaway. Totschnig was the last of a breakaway that lasted over 200 km. Had that climb been another kilometer longer, Totschnig would have been caught, but it wasn’t and he had what it took to finish.
OLN didn’t make a big deal of this, but Popovych was falling behind Andrey Kashechkin on the first climb, but he caught him and passed him on the second climb. Popovych ended up with an extra 2:29 on his lead, and that should make his white jersey fit a little more comfortably.
Landis and Leipheimer are really riding well in the mountains. I thought it was a bit of a stretch to consider Floyd Landis a team leader before the Tour started, but he has proved me wrong too.
OK, let’s look at the leader board.
1) Armstrong
2) Rasmussen, at 1:41
3) Basso, at 2:46
4) Ullrich, at 4:34
5) Leipheimer, at 4:45
6) Landis, at 5:03
7) Mancebo, at 5:03
8) Klöden, at 5:38
These are the guys with a shot at the podium. I don’t think Rasmussen is going to make it. He showed a slight weakness today, but the big problem for him is the time trial. In stage 1 he was 174th, losing 3:14 in a 19 km time trial. He was so bad, he only beat Iban Mayo by a second. He can console himself with his 84 point lead in the KoM race. Basso looks good for the podium. He’s been riding well in the mountains and his time trialing has improved a lot since last year. I don’t see him losing that much time. If Ullrich stays strong in the mountains, he’ll get on the podium in Paris. That’s why the guys behind him have to make a move in stage 15. Leipheimer is only 11 seconds away from Ullrich and he’s a great time trialist, so my sleeper pick for the podium still has a decent shot.
*************
One more thing about stage 13. Sylvain Chavanel is a dork. He and Horner were caught about 400 meters from the finish line. It might not have happened if Chavanel had not eased the pace to keep an eye on Horner. Instead of racing to beat the peloton to the line, he slowed to out-maneuver Horner and it cost both of them the stage win. Dork! Horner should throw a water bottle at Chavanel, not Carlos DaCruz. It's worth the fine.
Telekom is still dysfunctional. The attack they pulled on the climb over the Porte de Pailheres was a great piece of teamwork. Guerini set a pace that Lance’s team could not match, rendering them useless. Nardello was up the road in the breakaway, which meant he was available to help briefly when they caught him. The attacks from the big three blew the pack apart and forced Lance to ride hard before he wanted to. Great teamwork, and the only example they have shown. Naturally, they screwed it up on the next climb. Vino attacked. Ullrich and Kloden bridged the gap; Lance just followed Ullrich’s wheel. It’s as though Vinokourov has no team. Kloden and Ullrich work together, and even against Vinokourov. Vino works with no one and just attacks until he’s out of energy, which has been pretty soon and frequent in this Tour.
A couple years ago the other guy who writes on this page examined the idea of the GC men of several teams ganging up in Lance. Telekom’s team isn’t far off that model, and we can see how it works. It doesn’t work if none of the attackers are as strong as the guy they are attacking. I’ll illustrate with quotes.
Ullrich: "It was our plan to attack early because you do not take time off Lance in the final climb."
Armstrong: “But the other side is that when you ride like that, nobody stays around long. You quickly not only eliminate your rivals but you also eliminate your team.”
The only way I could see this tactic working would be if another rider were just riding on Armstrong’s wheel and not expending the energy for the attacks. Of course, he’d get pretty tired too in the process. Ivan Basso fits the profile, but it’s not as though anyone suspects he’s in league with the brilliant tacticians of Telekom.
Still, it was a brilliant race to watch, much more exciting than watching the USPS/Discovery boys chew up the field until no one is left to challenge. The Telekom guys are to be commended for fighting tooth and nail. Plus they are promising more tomorrow, ‘cause it’s better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.
Aside from the yellow jersey race, Telekom crushed everyone today in the team time. They started the day in second, trailing CSC by 2 minutes, but now they have the lead by 6 minutes. Can CSC overtake them? They are not better in the mountains, and they might not be better at the time trial without Zabriskie. But they are very good at sending guys up into breakaways, so maybe they’ll try that next week. But they’ll miss Jens Voigt.
***********
Hooray for Georg Totschnig. He’s been a solid rider who never won anything, but now he’s got the satisfaction of an epic stage win. This is the year of the massive breakaway. Totschnig was the last of a breakaway that lasted over 200 km. Had that climb been another kilometer longer, Totschnig would have been caught, but it wasn’t and he had what it took to finish.
OLN didn’t make a big deal of this, but Popovych was falling behind Andrey Kashechkin on the first climb, but he caught him and passed him on the second climb. Popovych ended up with an extra 2:29 on his lead, and that should make his white jersey fit a little more comfortably.
Landis and Leipheimer are really riding well in the mountains. I thought it was a bit of a stretch to consider Floyd Landis a team leader before the Tour started, but he has proved me wrong too.
OK, let’s look at the leader board.
1) Armstrong
2) Rasmussen, at 1:41
3) Basso, at 2:46
4) Ullrich, at 4:34
5) Leipheimer, at 4:45
6) Landis, at 5:03
7) Mancebo, at 5:03
8) Klöden, at 5:38
These are the guys with a shot at the podium. I don’t think Rasmussen is going to make it. He showed a slight weakness today, but the big problem for him is the time trial. In stage 1 he was 174th, losing 3:14 in a 19 km time trial. He was so bad, he only beat Iban Mayo by a second. He can console himself with his 84 point lead in the KoM race. Basso looks good for the podium. He’s been riding well in the mountains and his time trialing has improved a lot since last year. I don’t see him losing that much time. If Ullrich stays strong in the mountains, he’ll get on the podium in Paris. That’s why the guys behind him have to make a move in stage 15. Leipheimer is only 11 seconds away from Ullrich and he’s a great time trialist, so my sleeper pick for the podium still has a decent shot.
*************
One more thing about stage 13. Sylvain Chavanel is a dork. He and Horner were caught about 400 meters from the finish line. It might not have happened if Chavanel had not eased the pace to keep an eye on Horner. Instead of racing to beat the peloton to the line, he slowed to out-maneuver Horner and it cost both of them the stage win. Dork! Horner should throw a water bottle at Chavanel, not Carlos DaCruz. It's worth the fine.
posted by uberschuck at 4:44 PM
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