Team evaluations

Tete de la Course

Astana
Contador,1st, 85:48:35; 3 stage wins; won yellow jersey and team competition.
Wow! This team was awesome. They had 2 men on the podium and 3 in the top 6, and that's with Levi Leipheimer crashing out midway through the Tour and with a token roster spot given to a Kazak cyclist to satisfy the sponsor. They were as good as advertised and held up despite having the turmoil of having to figure out who would lead the team.

Columbia
Hincapie, 22nd, + 33' 27"; 6 stage wins; 8 days in green jersey; 12 days in white jersey.
Obviously, it was mostly the work of Cavendish, who won 6 stages himself. Although Tony Martin wore white for half the race, he suffered in the Alps and finished far behind, although he did finish second on Ventoux. The fact that George Hincapie was their best finisher shows the GC was really an afterthought for Columbia. But since Cavendish is a juggernaut, Columbia is a juggernaut.

Saxo Bank
Andy Schleck, 2nd, +4:11; 3 stage wins; white jersey winner; 6 days in yellow, 1 day in green, 2 days in team lead.

That’s a lot of hardware for a team that’s only the 3rd most impressive of the Tour. In addition to the Schleck brothers contending for the yellow jersey, Cancellara and Sorensen won stages. This team lost Carlos Sastre to free agency and Jens Voigt to a crash and was still awesome.

Poursuviants

Garmin-Slipstream
Wiggins, 4th, +6:01; no stage wins or jerseys.
Is it fair to put them in “Peloton” when they had two men in the top 8 and were runner up in the team competition? Is it fair to put them in “Poursuviants” when they didn’t win anything? Well, I’ll err on the side of being generous. They are very talented, fought hard, and came up short. Good pursuit…poursuviants.

Ag2r
Nocentini, 14th, +20:45; 8 days in yellow; 5 days in team lead.

Nocentini’s week in the race lead was an unexpected surprise. The team did a fine job of defending, and even after he lost it, he still rode respectably. Nick Roche had a decent finish too, despite his stupid tactics on stage 14 that nearly cost Nocentini the yellow jersey. Once a lousy laughingstock, Ag2r may be the best French team now.

Liquigas
Nibali, 7th, +7:35; won King of Mountains; 2 days in white jersey.
Franco Pellizotti changed his focus from a GC position to the KoM after losing a ton of time one day…turned out to be a good move. He was tough in the Alps and ran away with the polka dots, winning by 75 points. Nibali and Kreuziger were 2nd & 3rd in the race for the white jersey. This could be a great TdF team if they can keep it together.

Cervelo
Sastre, 17th, +16:21; won green jersey and 2 stages.

OK, as a defending champ Sastre imploded, but if you win green and two stages, that’s a darn good Tour. Yet Cervelo seemed anonymous in the Tour. Did you know this is THOR! Hushovd’s team before I mentioned the words “green jersey?”

Peloton

FDJ
Le Mevel, 10th, 14:25; 4 days in dots.

It’s hard to believe that in addition to LeMevel finishing 10th, Sandy Casar was 12th. Jussi Viekkanen wore led the KoM before the race hit any mountains, which is always a fun thing to put on a rider’s resume. If this team had a real GC contender, LeMevel and Casar would be a pretty good support for him.

Euskaltel
Astarloza, 11th, +14:44; 1 stage win, 4 days in dots.

This was their best Tour in a long time—first stage win in 6 years and first time wearing any leader’s jersey. Martinez had the rare ability to take the KoM jersey out of the Pyrenees and lose it before the Alps, but he still finished second.

Bogus Telekom (Bbox/Bouygues Telecom)
Rolland, 22nd, +37:44; 2 stage wins.

Thomas Voeckler and Perrick Fedrigo each took stage wins with well-timed attacks out of breakaway groups. Short on talent, but with plenty of hustle. We make fun of this team a lot, but they definitely belong.

Autobus

Banesto (Cassie D’ Epargne)
Sanchez, 26th, +41:27; 1 stage win.

It was Sanchez who got the stage win. He also gave a stab at a couple other mountain attacks that went nowhere. No one else on the team was noteworthy. Rojas was 4th in the green jersey race, yet I can’t remember him contesting any sprints. He only finished in the top 5 three times.

Agritubel
Feillu, 25th, +41:14; 1 stage win; 1 day in dots.
At least this team is improving from laughing stock to a bit player.

Cofidis
Minard, 38th, +57:37; 2 days in dots.

Two different guys wore the dots, one of which was in the Pyrenees. Nothing else to write home about. Blah.

Katusha
Karpets, 13th, +18:34; 1 stage win.

Ivanov is a good rider. His stage win was the result of a well-executed attack, and he was aggressive in other stages too. Al Botcherov also finished in the top 20, so it wasn’t too bad for their first Tour.

Rabobank
Menchov, 51st, +1:17:04; 1 stage win.

Juan Garate’s stage win salvages what was an otherwise terrible Tour, but a win at Ventoux will pull any team out of the cellar. Menchov rode like a guy whose legs were cooked at the Giro, and Freire rode like a guy who didn’t care to defend his 2008 green jersey.

Lotto
Van Den Brouck, 15th, +20:50.

Congratulations to Jurgen Van Den Brouck on a fine ride. Remember a long time ago, before the days of Robbie McEwen, when Lotto was just a terrible team wasting space at the Tour? Well, even with Cadel Evans on the team, they were still a terrible waste of space. If Sastre was a disappointment, how do you describe Evans, who finished 30th, over 45 minutes off the lead? The whole team didn’t even have anyone finish top ten in any jersey race. They make the Autobus on the strength of VanDen Bouck (a sentence no one could have predicted) and because the teams in the bottom category are even scarier.

Abandon

Milram
Knees, 21, +34:48.

Cioleck was third in the green jersey race, but he was barely noticeable. The sponsor should ask for a refund.

Quick Step, Lampre, Skil-Shimano.

I’m lumping them all together to save time and to save myself the trouble of coming up with individual ways of describing how they suck. They won nothing. They contested for nothing. They finished in the bottom 3 in the team competition.

Best riders: Chavanel, 20th, +34:09 (Quick Step); Loosli, 53rd, 1:51:53 (Lampre); Hupond, 90th, 2:22:58 (Skil-Shimano).

OK, I don’t even know who Loosi and Hupond are; I couldn’t even identify them as cyclists until I looked this up. I’m almost tempted to move QuickStep, and Milram up to Autobus just for having riders in 20th and 21st place. That implies they have some talent. Lampre and Skil-Shimano apparently don’t. Skil-Shimano, in particular, was a woeful eyesore. QS was +2:40:01 in the team competition. Lampre was a few seconds shy of 4 hours, but Skil-Shimano takes the cake with a 7 hour deficit behind Astana’s winning time. Amazing!

Recap & All-Star Team

Recap:
Alberto Contador is the strongest cyclist in the world. That he broke everyone in the mountains was to be expected, but his time trial was stunningly good.

If Contador is going to dominate the next 5+ years, Andy Scheleck appears to be his most likely rival. Andy has won two consecutive white jerseys. There have been lots of guys to win white and not pan out, but Andy followed up his 11th overall last year with a 2nd overall this year.

Lance Armstrong didn't win the Tour, but he was pretty impressive nevertheless. There is a theory circulating that suggests that he suffered more from a lack of racing legs than age, ergo, next year he should be stronger with an extra year of training. Maybe. I'll need to see that to be convinced. We have 11 months to wait.

Astana did a much better job of handling the problem of too much talent (Contador, Armstrong, Kloden, Leipheimer) much better than Telekom (Ullrich, Kloden, Vinokourov) did several years ago. Is it a fair comparison? Astana has the best cyclist in the world. Telekom only had the second best.

Mark Cavendish is untouchable in the bunch sprint...Zabel, McEwen, and Cipollini never dominated the way he did.

2009 All Star Team

The obvious spots: Contador and Andy Schleck as GC riders. The fact that they were holding back on Ventoux and still led the contenders says it all. My sprinters are Cavendish--6 stage wins!!!!!--and THOR!, because he beat Cav in the green jersey race.

I'll take Fabian Cancellara as my time trialist. Contador did beat him in the final ITT, but if you combine times from both time trials, no one was faster than Cancellara. Even if he weren't an All-Star as a time trialist, I would have picked him as a domestique because of his pace-setting in the mountains.

Franco Pellizotti earned a spot as a climber. He won the KoM by a very large marging. Sometimes the KoM is a goofy competition, and I have kept the winner off the team for being a point hoarder who disappears on the hardest climbs, but not Franco. Even after he clinched the KoM he made a serious attack on the Ventoux, like a climbing All-Star is supposed to do.

I'll take Mark Renshaw as a lead out man for the sprints. The whole Columbia team did a great job of leading Cavendish, but Renshaw was the best of the group.

Frank Schleck earns a spot too. After Ventoux people think of him as the fellow who missed the podium because of a bad time trial and an inability to follow his brother's wheel on Ventoux. Don't forget that throughout the Alps he was constantly attacking to set up Andy Schleck. If Andy asserted himself as a team leader, Frank is a ridiculously talented and aggressive domestique for the climbs.

I've been wondering if I should include Lance Armstrong on the All-Star Team. If not Lance, then who? Ivanov had a nice stage win and a few other good breakaways. Ditto Perrick Fedrigo. But, seriously, it would be silly not to pick Armstrong. Don't compare him to Lance of 1999-2005; he's not that good. He's still awesome. Despite the drama on his team he ended up being the team player. He showed he's as smart as any rider in the peloton by being on the happy end of a peloton split at the finish twice. Any team needs a rider that strong and savvy.

Ventoux

Although the race up Ventoux was fun to watch, I got the feeling that the Tour organizers outsmarted themselves by putting it on the penultimate day after a back-end-loaded final week of mountain stages. Those guys were worn out, and they were all playing defense, except for Frank Schleck, who was probably the most worn out of the top 7. Still, the race was tense even if it didn't produce huge time gaps (well, unless you are named Evans, Sastre, or Menchov).

With Garate winning the stage, Rabobank finally has something good to take from the Tour. Otherwise, they might have found themselves in the Abandon category of my team evaluation.

Tomorrow the green jersey is up for grabs. There are two intermediate sprints that Cavendish ought to try to take if he intends to close the gap on THOR!.

When it's all over I'll name a TdF All-Star team and evaluate the teams. In the meantime, check out Jens Voigt's Halloween costume.

ITT

OK, I'm impressed. I'm more impressed by Contador's win in the time trial than I am by his winning the whole Tour. He beat Fabian Cancellara by 3 seconds. He beat Wiggins and Kloden by almost a minute. He beat Armstrong, the Schlecks, and the other contenders by 1:30+. I figured Contador to be a fair time trialist, not a great one, but today he served up a massive beat down. The margin is enough to push his overall lead beyond the magical 4 minute barrier I've been saying would be needed to feel safe going onto Mt. Ventoux.

The standings after stage 18.
1 Alberto Contador (Astana) at 73:15:39
2 Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank) at 04:11
3 Lance Armstrong (Astana) at 05:25
4 Bradley Wiggins (Garmin - Slipstream) at 05:36
5 Andréas Klöden (Astana) at 05:38
6 Frank Schleck (Saxo Bank) at 05:59
7 Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) at 07:15

The only way Contador doesn't win is if he gets sick, crashes, or fails a drug test. Andy Schleck has a nice advantage for a podium spot, but it's certainly not untouchable. The third podium spot is going to be a massive fight, with 4 guys separated by 34 seconds. The guys on Vs. haven't mentioned that because they are too busy predicting Lance will win every stage and then saying he's riding great when he doesn't win. But, this is really, really a tight race.

Even stage 20 on Friday could be a showdown, as there is a pretty nasty climb just before the finish. I think these guys will be so tired from the last few days that they won't attack. They'll save it for Ventoux on Saturday, where any one (or more) of them can blow up and lose his spot in the rankings.

Two days in the Alps

A couple jerseys were practically decided in stages 16 & 17.

Franco Pellizotti kept attacking the climbs to pick up points. He didn't make it with the lead group to the final climb on either day, but he lasted longer than Egoi Martinez and even when Martinez was hanging around, Pellizotti was faster. It's not a mathematical certainty (Martinez would have to win every remaining climb and have Pellizotti get nothing), so, really, Pellizotti needs to pass his dope tests and get all the way to the finish line in Paris.

THOR! attacked solo in the mountains to pick up 12 intermediate sprint points in stage 17. Cavendish didn't attempt, so he finds himself down 30 points. He needs THOR! to draw goose eggs in order to make up that gap.

Because I've said all along that 4 minutes is the gap needed for the leader to feel safe heading onto Ventoux, I'll say Contador still has some work to do, but after putting time on Armstrong and Wiggins in stage 17, he's a lot closer. I do think the Schleck brothers have pushed him harder than he expected to go, but they just can't drop him. They aren't great time trialists, so they really need to rely on having a ridiculously good day on Ventoux.

Standing after Stage 17
# 1. Alberto Contador Astana 2910km in 72:27:09
# 2. Andy Schleck Team Saxo Bank, at 2:26
# 3. Frank Schleck Team Saxo Bank at 03:25
# 4. Lance Armstrong Astana at 03:55
# 5. Andréas Klöden Astana at 04:44
# 6. Bradley Wiggins Garmin - Slipstream at 04:53
# 7. Vincenzo Nibali Liquigas at 05:09


So, while it looks like Contador vs. the Schlecks for yellow, all the guys from 2-7 are fighting for a podium spot. The time trial will shuffle their positions and time slots to set up the final showdown on Ventoux. Being that Armstrong and Kloden will be protecting Contador's yellow jersey, their tactics for defending or attacking a podium position may be compromised.

Also, Scheleck and Nibali are 1 and 2 in the white jersey competition, so they have a consolation prize to think about too.

Astana built their lead in the team competition up to 16 minutes after stage 17. That gap is probably going to grow. It's a total beat down, and without Levi Leipheimer.

As for the crash of Jens Voigt...I hope that wasn't the last we see of him at the Tour. It won't be as enjoyable without him.

Rest day: An Interview With Bernard Hinault

Press credentials--Bah, humbug. We scored a chat with former Tour de France runner-up Bernard Hinault.

TGT: Thanks for taking the time to visit, Bernard.

BH: Please, call me Mr. Hinault.

TGT: Yesterday was a long-awaited stage. Now that the race has taken form with Contador seizing control, what you think?

BH: Well, it's no surprise to me, of course. I've known all along that Alberto Contador is the strongest man in the race. His performance yesterday merely confirmed what I knew to be the truth.

TGT: It was an impressive display.

BH: Perhaps it seems impressive to those who don't understand cycling, but I assure you, my prediction was really an obvious one for anyone with a depth of knowledge of the sport. People who were predicting otherwise just don't understand.

TGT: I was talking about Contador.

BH: Oh, yes. He's quite a talented rider, a true champion. He's really showing his form by overcoming the sabotage of his own team.

TGT: You are referring to Lance Armstrong?

BH: I thought you'd never ask. There's a certain cosmic justice that this fraudulent, doping phony champion is being humiliated before the world. Just what sort of ego must this man have to think he could return at his age and ride well.

TGT: But he's in second place.

BH: There is no reward for finishing second.

TGT: Actually, it's a couple hundred thousand Euros.

BH: Whatever. The lowlife is only in it for the money.

TGT: Back to your point about sabotage...do you really think Armstrong and team Astana have been trying to sabotage Contador? What evidence do you have.

BH: It's obvious. The way Armstrong took advantage of the strong winds in stage 3 to attack his teammate and overtake him in the standings was just classless. You don't attack your own teammate! It's unprofessional.

TGT: But didn't people say the same about you and Greg LeMond?

BH: I've forgiven LeMond. He was young and unsophisticated. The poor fool just didn't know better.

TGT: No, no, I mean when you attacked LeMond in the 1986 Tour.

BH: I was protecting him.

TGT: Um.

BH: He still hasn't thanked me.

TGT: Back to the topic of this Tour. Do you think Contador will hold on to the yellow jersey all the way to Paris?

BH: Probably. He's definitely the best climber. It's possible Armstrong might loosen the screws holding his bike together the time trial, or maybe throw a water bottle in his spokes to crash him on the Ventoux. Of course, he'd have to be close enough to reach him, and Armstrong has shown he's too weak for that. Aside from that, I see Contador overcoming the long odds of his own team to win the Tour.

TGT: It's very favorable that he'll become a two time Tour winner.

BH: A true champion, one of the finest ever. Perhaps the best in 24 years.

TGT: Who won 24 years ago?

BH: That's it, this interview is over.

It's Contador's Tour to win

That's the headline from stage 15. Contador attacked and no one could match him. Most of the contenders (Schleck, Schleck, Sastre, Evans, Wiggins!) finished ahead of Armstrong, who was 95 seconds back.

The new top 10:
1. Ablerto Contador, Astana
2. Lance Armstrong, Astana, 1.37
3. Bradley Wiggins, Garmin-Slipstream, at 1.46
4. Andreas Kloden, Astana, at 2.17
5. Andy Schleck, Saxo Bank, at 2.26
6. Rinaldo Nocentini, AG2R, at 2.30
7. Vincenzo Nibali, Liquigas, at 2.51
8. Tony Martin, Columbia-HTC, at 3.07
9. Christophe Le Mevel, Francais des Jeux, at 3.09
10. Frank Schleck, Saxo Bank, at 3.25


Armstrong said all that needs to be said about Astana's game plan for the next week. Contador is the strongest; he rides for Contador.

The race isn't over with 2 alpine stages, Ventoux, and a time trial, but no one has been able to stay with Contador, his time trial is pretty good, and his team is the best in the race. The other contenders need Contador to mess up in order to catch him.

Other stuff:

What does Astana do about the other goals besides winning the yellow jersey? Lance and Kloden are both podium contenders. They lead the team competition. Sweeping the podium and winning the team race would be a massive accomplishment.

Brad Wiggins is a huge surprise. Can he do it again and again, or will he pop?

Liquigas is having a realy good tour. Pellizotti is wearing dots. Niboli is a podium (and white jersey) contender. Kreuziger is also a white jersey contender.

Shouldn't Andy Schleck be ahead of Frank Schleck? Speaking of the SaxoBank team, the work Voigt and Cancellara did to set the pace on the slopes of the climb was just phenomenal. Those guys will sleep well tonight.

Nocentini may have lost the yellow jersey, but he did well to keep it over a week, and he rode well today. He's actually still in the top 10, but I expect he'll drop a lot of places now that he's lost his incentive.