Saturday, December 07, 2002

The running back picture is a little clearer. Mainly because it's pretty straight-forward. The guy who rushed for 2000 yards also averages 8 yards a carry. He's also a terrific receiver. So Larry Johnson has a strangle-hold on the best running back in the country label. Like I said, we're just looking at big picture stats right now, I'll get into his big game disappearing acts later on.


The question is: Do any other backs merit consideration? Well, yeah. In another one of those instances of East Coast Bias, I'll bet you didn't know that Steven Jackson has rushed for over 1600 yards. I'm also willing to bet you didn't know what school he went to until you checked the chart or clicked the link. It's okay, it's not your fault that it's nigh on impossible to get a Pac-10 game in the Eastern Time Zone without ESPN GamePlan.


Just like the QB's, we have our official mid-major candidate, Michael Turner. 1900 yards is mighty impressive, no matter what conference you play in. However, both Jackson and Turner have two major flaws: they don't really catch passes and they both average under six yards a carry. 5.5 is obscenely good, but it doesn't put them on the same level as the guys their competing against. Thanks for stopping by the booth.


Then there is the Big 12 trio. Qunetin Griffin is a dual threat, but for some reason, he just doesn't find the end zone. Well, it's probably because he's not that great at running between the tackles in a power set. He just doesn't get a ton of carries, and neither does Darren Sproles. He's another guy who probably doesn't deserve the award, but at least deserves a mention. Seriously, did you know Sproles averaged over 6 yards a carry and had over 1300 yards. Heck, did you know there was a college football player named Darren Sproles? Some players get picked up by the hype machine, and some don't. I'll never understand why. The top guy from the Big 12 is Chris Brown. He was a serious contender, but a late injury caused him to miss both the Nebraska and the Oklahoma game. That ruined his chance at 2000 yards, and thereby his chances at toppling LJ.


Which leaves us with McGahee. The numbers in the chart were pre-Virginia Tech, so let's add SIX touchdowns to his totals, which now lead all of the NCAA. His yards per carry will still be less than LJ's, but he's still a credible receiving threat. He's the only other back worth considering, but just looking at the season as a whole, my rankings are:


1 LJ
2 McGahee
3 Brown
4 Griffin
5 Jackson


More to come.

So let's break down those numbers, starting with quarterbacks.



As you may have noticed, it's a little tough to see in the chart I know, the QB's are sorted by yards per attempt. This helps gives us an idea the real value of a quarterback. Somebody who is piling up tons of yards just because of a hugh amount of attempts (cough) Kliff Kingsbury (cough), is exposed by this stat. What does a player do on the average pass play?



Ryan Dimwiddie has put up spectacular numbers. OK, he plays in a lousy conference and he missed four games due to injury, but he at least earns a mention in the Heisman race. Not even an invite, just a mention. Besides, we can now compare our other mid-major QB, Byron Leftwich, to Dimwiddie. So let's see, similar completion percentage, lower yds/attempt but he played most of the year, and 3 less TD's and 5 more INT's. That's huge. For a mid-major guy to win the award, his numbers need to jump off the page. And Leftwich isn't as impressive as Dimwiddie. It's close, but if Dimwiddie's not a Heisman candidate, neither is Leftwich. Besides, what about Brian Jones? He has them beat on just about every metric, including a stunning 70% completion percentage. If I'm taking anyone from the mid-majors, it's Jones.



I put Kingsbury on the chart to show how unimpressive his 4642 yards of passing really is. He's thrown the ball 669 times, he better have that many yards. A 6.94 yards/attempt puts him in the company of guys like Jared Lorenzen. It's not even as good as Chris Simms. Does that mean I'd vote for Simms over Kingsbury? No. Yards/attempt is a guide, it's not the Holy Grail. Kingsbury has a 66.8% completion percentage and a TD-INT ratio of nearly 4-to-1. Simms ain't even in that ballpark. So Kingsbury makes the finals list due to his other numbers, which are outstanding, and the fact that 4642 yards is still a lot of real estate.



Now Carson Palmer and Ken Dorsey are in another boat. Both have the edge of Kingsbury in yards/attempt, but they don't have his total yards or effeceincy. OK, Palmer is close, but Dorsey isn't even 56% passer, and that's not good. Both have TD-INT ratios of about 3-to-1, Palmer on the high side, Dorsey on the low. It's pretty close, but on raw numbers, I'd go with Palmer.



I put Philip Rivers on there just to show that he's had a pretty good year all things considered. Sure, the season went down the toilet, but Rivers had a very good year, though he really needs to cut back on the picks. Also, there's the forgotten Jason Gesser. 3000 yards, 60% completion, 3-to-1 TD-INT ratio. Those are great numbers, though he can't hang his hat on just one. But why do some QB's get bonus points for getting hurt and then watching their team lose, but not Gesser? And for all of the talk about Palmer, Gesser's been the best QB in the Pac-10.



Which leaves us with our solid Big Ten quarterbacks. I'm not stumping him for the Heisman, but did you realize how good a year Craig Krenzel was having? I certainly didn't. Very effeceint performance. As you can see, this has been build up to Brad Banks.



His yards/attempt are off the charts. I can't get across how good 9.2 is. He completes just over 60% of his passes, which is real good, and he's tossed 25 TD's and only 4 picks. That's obscene. 25 TD passes is good for 10th in the nation. And I can't verify it, but 4 interceptions and just 11 sacks leads the nation among starters. His 166.1 passer rating tops everyone but Dimwiddie. On top of that, he rushed for 387 yards and five scores. The fact that this guys isn't a runaway Heisman favorite is just dumbfounding.



So here's a preliminary ranking of the quarterbacks:


1 Banks


2 Gesser


3 Palmer


4 Dorsey


5 Kingsbury



With an honorable mention to Dimwiddie. Running backs to come.

The Heisman is a popularity contest. It is still the most prestigious award in college football, and I'm now going to try and figure out who should win the award. I can't tell you who will win because I'm not privvy to who has the best mailer to potential voters. I'm going to take this in three steps over the next week. Step one is checking out the overall stats of the contenders at the glamour positions. Part two will look at non-traditional candidates. And part three will break the finalists down not only by their overall stats, but also by their intangibles and big game performences. So here are the numbers through December 1st:


QB School COMP ATT YDS Yds/Att Pct% TD INT
Dinwiddie BSU 117 173 2123 12.27 0.676 19 3
Banks Iowa 155 258 2369 9.18 0.601 25 4
Leftwich Marshll 277 405 3615 8.93 0.684 22 8
Krenzel Ohio St 141 228 1988 8.72 0.618 12 5
Gesser WSU 204 344 2922 8.49 0.593 25 9
Jones Toledo 247 346 2894 8.36 0.714 21 6
Rivers NCSU 239 381 3125 8.20 0.627 18 10
Dorsey Miami 182 330 2773 8.40 0.552 24 9
Palmer USC 288 458 3639 7.95 0.629 32 10
Simms Texas 220 368 2938 7.98 0.598 24 11
Kingsbury TT 447 669 4642 6.94 0.668 42 12

RB School ATT YDS AVG TD Catch Yds TD
Johnson PSU 251 2015 8.03 20 39 341 3
Griffin OU 228 1552 6.81 12 29 231 3
McGahee Miami 223 1481 6.64 21 22 329 0
Brown Colordo 276 1743 6.32 18 5 40 0
Sproles KSU 216 1347 6.24 16 9 99 0
Turner UNI 338 1915 5.67 19 10 100 0
Jackson Orgn St 300 1656 5.52 14 14 136 2
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