Saturday, July 03, 2004

Take a closer look...

No, it wasn't an earthshattering day, but there are two things to add in regards to Lance Armstrong's chances at winning this thing.

1) Finishing second isn't as important as beating Ullrich and Hamilton by 15 seconds in a short time trial.

2) Notice how well the Posties did--Hincapie, Landis, and Ekimov had great times. They have the best team time overall, six seconds ahead of CSC. They are trying to put themselves in position to be the top team and, hence, the last team out of the gate for the team time trial.

And congrats to Cancellera. Now he can tell his grandkids he wore the yellow jersey and beat Lance Armstrong in a TdF time trial.
PROLOGUE

Not much to say after one stage of under 7K. Lance looks real good, though it's always news when he loses a time trial, even if it is by one second in 6.1 K sprint. He's an awesome time trialist, but come on, this was a day for the sprinters to flex their muscles.

A nice debut for Fabian Cancellara. He gets to wear yellow after his first stage in his entire Tour de France career. He's also built himself nearly a half-minute cushion in the youth standings already, which may or may not be signifigant. It depends on whether he can climb at all.

Nobody worth a damn had a disatrous day. virenque is already nearly a minute out, but if you thought Virenque had any chance of wearing yellow, you're the most delusional fan of French cycling in the world. I am surprised Botchorov is in 183rd place, over a minute out already. He's a top twenty finisher, and he's hanging out with the lowest of the domestiques here.

The only thing of real signifigance on day one is some green jersey points that got handed out for the finish. We do expect the points title to be pretty close, so every point counts, even in the early stages. Of the top ten, only Thor Hushovd is a real threat to win the green jersey, so his six point bonus for a fifth place finish is important. All in all, though, it's just nice to see the Tour underway.

Friday, July 02, 2004

Yellow

GIOIA:

I know Armstrong is more vulnerable than say 2 or 3 years ago. Losing to Hamilton and Mayo in the Mont Ventoux time trial last month may be prescient. But Armstrong is always well-prepared for the Tour physically and strategically. His team is excellent. Since I still don’t see someone beating him consistently in both the climbs and the time trials, I’m sticking with Lance. The mountain time trial and softened rules in the team time trial will help Mayo, but I don’t know if he’s good enough to overcome Ullrich. Jan Ullrich is just too good. He beat Mayo by 6 minutes last year, and I don’t think one time trial in the mountains will be enough for Mayo to beat Ullrich, but I expect it to be a close race, probably decided on the last (flat!) time trial. So my pick…

1) Armstrong
2) Ullrich
3) Mayo
And Hamilton has a good shot too.


BAKER: We’ve done this in long form, but now I’ve got to actually make a pick. I think we’ve narrowed it down to these four riders, and barring a crash, they should finish top five, with a mention for maybe Basso or Heras to crash the top five. Heras and Mayo both have the same weakness: time trailing. However, this won’t be that huge of a liability this year due to the loss of a flat time trial. Ullrich won’t get his time trial shot until late, and while he’s an excellent climber, he’s not in the same class as these guys. Hamilton might be the best time trailer out there right now, even better than Lance at this point in their careers. And he can climb just as well.

However, his team is not as strong, and in the end, the Posties will do their job and break all of the contenders. Lance is going to lean heavily on his team, a luxury that only Ullrich has in terms of support quality. And we know Armstrong is better than Ullrich. So my pick is:

1) Armstrong
2) Hamilton
3) Ullrich


Green

GIOIA: There aren’t many points available after the race hits the Alps, so having a big first week is the key here. Alessandro Petacchi is by far the best sprinter, so he could build a huge lead. The problem is that there is no reason to suspect he will finish the race, so maybe there will be a mad scramble once he quits. I’ll bet on Robbie McEwen, who has been the best man in the green jersey competition over the last few years. Since I was too predictable in predicting the yellow, I’ll throw a curveball here…Thor Hushovd in second, and Baden Cooke, the defending champ, in third. I’ll call Eric Zabel the outside shot because even though he’s slower, he’s extremely consistent.

BAKER: We agree that if Petacchi finishes, he wins green. Zabel is the smartest sprinter out there, as he just finds a way to pick up every intermediate point there is. You have to at least mention Cipo and O’Grady, though both are slipping. Nazon carries the hearts and dreams of France winning something, and he could make a showing in the Green. You stole my Hushovd pick, but I still see the two Australians duking it out. Let’s see McEwen actually win one.

1) McEwen
2) Cooke
3) Hushovd

Polka Dots

GIOIA: The rules have been changed to award more points for the climbs at the ends of stages. That means Richard Virenque can’t win it on one day’s work. It’s hard to predict this because the new rules change the strategy. Maybe the elite climbers in contention for yellow will care about the KoM, maybe not. I’ll predict Mayo to win it, Virenque in second, Heras in third. Outside shot to Lance Armstrong.

BAKER: It’s hard to project because we don’t know how the points will really be redistributed. I mean, we can read the charts, but we don’t know if it’ll actually reward honest climbing, or the Virenque one-day strategy. I think Heras realizes he’s outclassed in the GC and goes for the dots instead.

1) Heras
2) Mayo
3) Armstrong


White

GIOIA: OK, it’s completely impossible to pick this. How can we predict who will be the best rider under the age of 25? Most of these guys have never even raced the Tour. Denis Menchov is too old to defend his title. Here’s a wild guess. 1) Michael Rogers. 2) Juan Mercado. 3) Sylvain Chavanel.

You’ll have to keep an eye on the race to see how wrong I am.

BAKER: It’s a crapshoot, but I’ll throw out another name: Michele Scarponi. Domina Vacanze has nothing else to ride for, really. So why not ride for the white? Rogers is the favorite, but I’m still skeptical.

1) Scarponi
2) Chavanel
3) Rogers
Baker: Lance is a favorite once again, and he looks like a good bet to get the magical sixth yellow jersey. However, Indurain looked just as invincible, and when it ended, it ended quickly for him. So let's look at the very top contenders and what they need to win.

MAYO.
Baker: He won't be hurt by his team as much due to the new team time trial rules. And, as we've discussed, a time trial up Alpe d'Huez really helps him. He's not a pure time trialist, but he may even be a better climber than Lance, and the time trial aspect of Huez has to help Mayo a lot. He's got to be salivating over this course, and if he's ever going to win the Tour, this is it.

Gioia: I think his mom sat on the committee that designed the course. He’s already won on Alpe d’Huez, so this could be a time trial he could win. Mayo is a legit threat for a podium finish, and to win it all. Last month he beat Armstrong by two minutes in the Mont Ventoux time trial at the Dauphine Libere. And let’s not forget, Mayo wasn’t even the fastest man on his team last year—Haimar Zubeldia will be back in ‘04.


ULRICH.
Baker: As always, he's out of shape. If he had any work ethic whatsoever, he would have several more yellow jerseys. I don't think it's that he's a lazy bum, I just think he knows in his heart of hearts that he cannot beat Lance.

Gioia: Every year we hear that Ullrich is out of shape, and every year he beats everyone (except Lance). Losing a flat time trial is going to hurt his chances because that’s his best weapon. We both have a lot of respect for Ullrich, but I do believe this year he’ll see his toughest competition for a podium spot. And those people who think he’s out of shape should check the results of the Tour of Switzerland—look at the top.

HAMILTON.
Baker: Sevilla knows he's a lieutenant, so he doesn't have those problems to deal with. He's a terrific time trialist, so he can compete with Lance there. And he proved last year he's the toughest human being on earth, almost reaching the podium despite racing with a
broken collarbone. There's only three riders in the field who aren't afraid of Lance: Vino, Hamilton, and Heras.

Gioia: Maybe he’s not afraid of Lance, but I get the feeling that Hamilton thinks he can’t beat Armstrong unless he gets a little help—like Armstrong having a crash, a puncture, an illness, etc. Tyler is with a new team, but Phonak appears to be a decent crew. It’s hard to predict how Tyler will finish. He’s got the all-around tools to win, but he’s not the best at any one thing, nor have we seen him attack repeatedly.

HERAS.
Baker: He can't really time trial, but he's been Lance's prime domestique. Now he rides for himself. It was really inevitable, there's only so long a guy of his skills can play second fiddle. But now it's put up or shut up time. By leaving Postal, he seems to be
saying he can beat Postal, so he has more pressure on him than any other contender. If he doesn't reach the podium, he'll be second guessed for leaving the most successful team.

Gioia: Heras needs a 3 minute lead over Armstrong, Hamilton, Vinokourov, and Ullrich going into the final time trial in order to win. But I predict Heras is to play a great role in this race. Roberto Heras unleashed in the mountains may do more to break up the field than he did as Lance’s domestique.

VINOKOUROV.
Baker: Vino really made a splash last year, but he's got the problem of needing to get Telekom to work for him, not Ulrich. Telekom is really desperate to be the team that unseats Lance, and in their hubris, they have too many chiefs and not enough Indians. Who is this team going to ride for? It should ride for Vino, but that's no sure
thing.

Gioia: Telekom left him off the team. I wonder if he had a real problem or if Ullrich put his foot down. In any case, last year’s #3, and a real threat to Armstrong isn’t in the race.

Baker: A shocking move by Telekom, and one that speaks to Ullrich’s weaknesses.

That's about it. Beloki and Leipheimer deserve a mention, but they aren't serious threats to win. So that's a six-man race, eight if you count those two.

Gioia: Beloki was on the start list until he left his team. His career is just one bizarre turn after another. There are a few other names worth mentioning, not because they are podium favorites, but because they should be among the elite climbers. Ivan Basso has turned in two quality races in the last two years. Now he’s riding for CSC, which is a team that could actually provide him some support. Francisco Mancebo and Denis Menchov are a sold 1-2 punch for Illes Baleares (formerly Banesto). Aitor Gonzalez and Gilberto Simoni get their names mentioned because they’ve won major tours in the past, but I don’t expect to see them in contention.

Baker: Who can beat Armstrong? Really, who? If Ulrich couldn't do it in his prime, he can't do it now. Mayo, while a chic pick, doesn't strike me as a winner due to his time trialing weakness (and his team). Heras is like Mayo only not as good. I really think we're looking at one man with a good chance of pulling the upset: Hamilton. Hamilton really showed a lot in last year's Tour. Yeah, he's never made the podium, but I think he's ready to step up and make the Leap.

I'm not committed to picking him just yet, but I'm leaning towards Hamilton winning the whole thing.

Gioia: After last year people may feel emboldened to pick against Armstrong, and his competitors will feel emboldened to attack him. So, it’s possible the reign is ending. I reach the opposite conclusion. Armstrong had a bad race and still won. Last year he had a stomach virus, two crashes, severe dehydration, and was run off the road by Beloki’s crash. And he still won by a minute. I’m still picking Armstrong to win it. He may not be the strongest man every day like in 1999-2002, but I think he’ll be the strongest on most days. I think he’ll be in top form this year and able to match the attacks that he couldn’t match last year.

How to beat Armstrong…he’s known for great strategy, but his strategy has an Achilles’ heel. The old model of “just watch Ullrich” is no longer practical. To be sure, he must watch Ullrich and consider him the greatest threat, but if he only devotes his attention to Ullrich, the other contenders will take advantage of the distraction. Armstrong must match the early attacks of Mayo and Heras. He needs to use those attacks to drop the other competitors. Up until last year, Lance’s strategy was to attack hard on the first mountain stage. If he’s feeling well this year, expect it again.

Baker: If the other riders are relying on a flaw in US Postal strategy, they will lose. It’s as simple as that. Armstrong’s greatest strength is that he is perhaps the best tactician ever. Their strategy is always picture perfect as well, adapted to the changing conditions.

You’re only going to beat Lance by out time-trialing him, and the list of people who can do that is about two cyclists long. Or you can outclimb him, and the list of people who can do that is about three cyclists long. Unfortunately, it’s different riders on each list. But you are never, ever, ever going to beat him on tactics and strategy. Every contender is thinking the same thing, just hang with Lance until either Alpe d’Huez if you’re a climber, or the last time trial if you’re a trialist. Does anyone think they are going to crack him on the mountains?

In the end, you just can’t pick against Lance. He’s the best until someone proves it otherwise.
Tour de France 2004 Team Preview

US Postal:
GIOIA: It’s virtually the same team that won the previous tour, with the obvious difference that Heras is gone. But Heras was replaced with Jose Azevedo, who came from the old ONCE team. Azevedo is a climber and a good time trialist who actually beat Heras in 2002 and 2003. Beltran, Rubiera, and Azevedo make a great core of mountain domestiques. Padrnos, Ekimov, and Hincapie are all a year older, but it’s obvious they know how to control a peloton. Armstrong has a solid team behind him.

BAKER: We’re calling the best team on earth “solid”? How about awesome? Dominant? The very key to Lance’s victories? Not only is this team loaded, they have one mission: win it for Lance. There’s no distractions like worrying about picking up intermediate sprint points or trying to pull down a stage win or two. It’s all about Lance. It’s all about winning this thing. His victory is their victory.

Telekom (T-Mobil):
GIOIA: The big news is that they didn’t put Alexandre Vinokourov on the team. This team is so loaded they can tell last year’s 3rd place rider to sit out. That makes Jan Ullrich the clear leader of this team and there will be no dispute about who the boss is. Aside from Ullrich this team has some big names in Santiago Botero, Daniele Nardello, and Erik Zabel. However, Telekom has been loaded before and come up empty. A great team on paper, but they are without their most explosive rider.

BAKER: The decision to leave Vino at home is ridiculous. Honestly, I thought he had a better shot at beating Lance, as Ullrich just keeps getting mentally and physically punished by Armstrong. The decision smacks of Ullrich’s own insecurities as he wants to be the man who beats Lance, not some upstart teammate. Zabel is always a threat to win the green, though.



Fassa Bortolo:
GIOIA: Alessandro Petacchi seems unbeatable in the sprints. He won 4 stages last year and won 7 in the Giro last May. If he stays in the race he can win the Green jersey easily, but why would we think that Petacchi can finish? Fassa lost Ivan Basso last year, but they have a pretty good GC rider in Aitor Gonzalez.

BAKER: Basso made the right move, as he’d done pretty much all he could with Fassa. And besides, their Tour is all about Petacchi. If he bothers to finish, he’ll win the green. It’s as simple as that, he is clearly the best sprinter in the world. Of course, finishing is a huge question. I’ll guess four stage wins and a withdraw the first day in the Alps.


Cofidis:
GIOIA: Since David Millar admitted to doping and has been ruled ineligible, so that removes their best hope for a stage win. Stuart O’Grady is a good rider who may contend for stage wins and the green jersey, but this team just doesn’t have much.

BAKER: Really, this team is no better than AG2R. Millar’s always been a bit of a running joke, and his loss may be a good thing in the long run for this team, as they finally realize he’s never going to win anything. O’Grady’s window for the green jersey appears to have closed, passed by fellow Australians.


CSC:
GIOIA: Last year they were awesome, but Tyler Hamilton has left the team. They replaced him with Ivan Basso, who is a good Italian that actually seems to care about riding the Tour well. This team has 3 former stage winners in Carlos Sastre, Jakob Piil, and Jens Voigt. CSC has really good management in Bjarne Riis too, so look for them to play a big role.

BAKER: If they could only decide on whom to ride for. Sastre or Basso? Both finished in the top ten last year, so it’s not like either of these guys are chumps. And as you point out, there are lots of stage winners on this team. And let’s not forget former Great American Hope Bobby Julich. They probably aren’t in contention for any individual awards, though a podium finish for either Basso or Sastre would be nice, but they are the front-runners for the team title.


Gerolsteiner:
GIOIA: They didn’t do much of anything last year. Danilo Hondo is a pretty good sprinter who stands an outside chance of getting a stage win. Georg Totschnig is a pretty good all-around rider, but no real threat to win. Maybe if he has a great race, he could contend for the top 10. And Uwe Peschel is a good time trialist—provided he can stay on his bike. Gerolsteiner used up all their rookie mistakes last year, so they had better show a pulse this year.

BAKER: Udo Bolts is also the best name in cycling. But really, this team brings almost nothing to the table.


Rabobank:
GIOIA: Levi Leipheimer crashed out in stage one last year, so you know he’s going to try to redeem himself this year. In fact the whole Rabobank team had a bad year in 2003. Oscar Freire isn’t riding, but they are brining 4 former stage winners in Michael Boogard, Marc Wauters, Karsten Kroon, and Erik Dekker. Rabobank should be back in force this year.

BAKER: Last year was awful. Leipheimer is a terrific rider, but who will ride for him. This team excels at flat stages, but they don’t have a sprinting contender. And then there’s our mascot, Erik Dekker, man of the annual withdraw. I do like this team, but they need to decide what the hell they are doing. Are they going for the sprints or for the GC?


Saeco:
GIOIA: One of the strongest teams in the world, but you’d never know it if you only watched them in the Tour. Simoni and Casagrande will be there. I expect this team will do like last year—fall back behind the pack, then try to salvage their race by getting someone in a breakaway for a stage win.

BAKER: Hmm… we don’t hear much bluster from Simoni this year. I wonder why not? Finishing over two and half hours out tends to bring some humility.


Quick Step-Davitamon:
GIOIA: They had a good Tour last year with two stage wins and a Polka Dot jersey for Richard Virenque. He’ll be back to vie for a 7th King of the Mountains, but since the rules have changed to put more emphasis on the final climbs, he’s going to have a hard time beating the stronger climbers. Paolo Bettini is another rider to watch on this team.

BAKER: This team is pretty good. I’ll say it now, Virenque won’t win the dots, and DuFaux won’t finish second in the climbers classification again. They seem to think Rogers is the future, but he was a complete washout in his first Tour. Maybe he’ll contend for the white, but right now, he’s nothing but hype.


Euskaltel-Euskadi:
GIOIA: The Basque team has found its niche. Zubeldia and Mayo can do whatever they want in the mountains, and the rest of the team gets to look snappy in those orange uniforms. They’ll be totally absent for the first 11 stages, then Mayo and Zubledia will rock your world in the mountains. Two top 10 riders last year, aiming for a podium finish this year.

BAKER: A podium finish? They don’t want the podium, they want Mayo to win this thing. The organizers bent over backwards to make a course as amenable as possible for Mayo, so this is really his best chance to win the yellow. The new rules concerning team time trials also help out Mayo. And don’t forget, Zubeldia actually finished ahead of Mayo last year.


Illes Balears—Banesto:
GIOIA: Henceforth we’ll be calling them Banesto. As usual, Banesto’s “B” team is pretty darn good. Expect more solid performances as they fly below the radar of the elite teams in the Tour. They’ve got a ton of good climbers. Last year Denis Menchov won the white jersey after taking it from his own teammate, and, they still have Francisco Mancebo, who has been in the top 10 for 3 of the last 4 years.

BAKER: Karpets will ride for the white, and Mancebo and Menchov hope they can crack the top ten. Remember when this team was awesome? When did their expectations get so low? They are a good team, but nothing special anymore. It’s a shame.


Liberty Seguros:
GIOIA: This is Roberto Heras’ new team. Much like Euskaltel, we won’t see much of them until the race gets to the mountains. Heras has decent support from Isidro Nozal and Igor Gonzales, but he doesn’t really need it once they get to the mountains. Heras can turn in a great finish, but I think he’s not likely to win the Tour. I wonder if he’ll shoot for the King of the Mountains jersey. Not as big a prize, but he could certainly win it.

BAKER: Heras wants to win this thing. He left Postal so he could win this thing, there’s no point to leave the Blue Train if all you’re gonna do is ride for polka dots. It would be a nice consolation prize, but he’s got a team put together for the express purpose of winning the yellow. You even left off quality domestiques like Nozal and Vande Velde.


Alessio-Bianchi:
GIOIA: This team doesn’t have very much to work with. They should pin their hopes on getting someone into a breakaway and hoping he can steal a stage win.

BAKER: They’ve got some decent riders, but that’s about it. Noe, Caucchioli, Moller, and Baldato make a good core of domestiques, but there’s just no one to ride for. They aren’t a contender to win anything, but they won’t embarrass themselves, and may actually steal a stage win or something.


Lotto-Domo:
GIOIA: Robbie McEwen is a contender for the green jersey. He’s never relied on his team, and that’s a good thing, because they aren’t very good. All eggs in one basket here.

BAKER: He actually tries as hard as possible to stay away from them. McEwen’s strategy is to simply stalk the best sprinter, and then ride out and beat them man to man. His team just gets in the way. He’ll stalk Petacchi in the first weeks, and then switch to Cooke.


Phonak:
GIOIA: Tyler Hamilton’s new team also has all their eggs in one basket, but Tyler’s a pretty good horse to bet on. Oscar Sevilla will make a very good domestique in the mountains. Outside of them the team isn’t notable. Hamilton is capable of making enough headlines for an entire team.

BAKER: He finished fourth with a broken collarbone. A podium finish seems well within his grasp, and maybe even the yellow. The team was good enough to dominate the Tour de Romandie, so while it isn’t Telekom, they are still good. He gets out from the crowd at CSC and is the undisputed team leader here. I really like his chances.


AG2r:
GIOIA: This team has never evolved. Kirsipuu and Nazon give them chances to steal a stage win, and Flickinger is a decent rider, but I’m stretching here. Their Tour is a success if they get a stage win. If they come away with nothing, it will be typical for them.

BAKER: Well, Nazon finished sixth last year in the quest for the green jersey, and Kirsipuu is a pretty good sprinter in his own right. The points title is wide open, and there’s no reason why Nazon can’t sneak in there with a lot of luck. Goubert’s their best shot in the GC, but if he fishes within one hour of the yellow, he would have had a great Tour. They don’t suck, but they aren’t a real factor.

Brioches la Boulangere:
GIOIA: A couple weeks ago I would have said that Brioches had reason to be hopeful because Joseba Beloki had joined their team. But then the sponsor announced they were leaving, and Beloki left the team too. So now they don’t have a jersey contender. The French will hype Sylvain Chavanel as some great cyclist in order to assuage their empty cupboard feeling.

BAKER: Well, there’s always Didier Rous. Rous is an interesting rider, as he always finishes with a respectable place (20th last year, about 30 minutes out), yet never actually threatens anybody. It’s a remarkable degree of consistent mediocrity. Chavanel will ride for the white jersey. Why not?


Credit Agricole:
GIOIA: Christophe Moreau actually had a good Tour last year, but he’s not really a threat for the yellow jersey. Botcharov is a pretty good rider too, but this team should pin its hopes on Thor Hushovd in the race for the green jersey.

BAKER: The change in Climber scoring hurts the French the most, as they usually win a jersey by having either Moreau or Virenque ride out for uncontested early climbs to gobble up points. Now, they won’t win any jerseys. This is a good team, but Moreau is past it. Halgand and Botcharov will finish in the top 50, but they have no one to support. Their real hope at a jersey is actually a solid one, Thor Hushovd, who finished fourth in the sprints last year.


FDJeux:
GIOIA: Matching last year’s output is a tall order. They wore all 4 jerseys, won the green jersey, and one stage. It’s pretty much the same crew again, but they will not be able to surprise anyone this year. Even so, consider this—FDJeux is now the best French team. That says a lot about how French cycling has fallen off the map.

BAKER: So far in fact that the best riders on this team, and most French teams, are Australian. Sandy Casar’s still eligible for the white, so this team has something else to do aside from defend Cooke’s green jersey. I’ll say they wear two jerseys this year.


RAGT:
GIOIA: I follow cycling a lot, but I’ve never heard of anyone on their roster. Hopefully one of them will work his way into a breakaway so we can see what their uniforms look like.

BAKER: Their team is a complete joke. They have no business riding in the tour. None.

Domina Vacanza:
GIOIA: This is the latest team to get Mario Cipollini, but now he’s 37 years old. It’s been a long time since the Tour invited Cipollini, and he’s probably too old to win any sprints. But we’ll consider it a success if he finishes the Tour.

BAKER: What the hell? A second tier Italian team invited to the Tour? Where is the plague of frogs or fire raining from the sky? OK, they are in the Tour just so Cipo can feel good about himself, but he’s not going to be a factor at all except at photo ops. In fact, the only guy who might contend for anything is Scarponi might make a run at the white jersey.


Kelme:
GIOIA: What? Kelme isn’t in the Tour? They had their team disqualified because of doping. This team used to be one of the elite. Now they are nothing, and the Tour goes on without them.

BAKER: ONCE has collapsed. Banesto has a new sponsor. Festina is long gone due to doping scandals. The Posties change sponsors next year. Everything is changing right now, positioning for the post-Lance world. There’s always Telekom.



FREE hit counter and Internet traffic statistics from freestats.com