Yellow

GIOIA:

I know Armstrong is more vulnerable than say 2 or 3 years ago. Losing to Hamilton and Mayo in the Mont Ventoux time trial last month may be prescient. But Armstrong is always well-prepared for the Tour physically and strategically. His team is excellent. Since I still don’t see someone beating him consistently in both the climbs and the time trials, I’m sticking with Lance. The mountain time trial and softened rules in the team time trial will help Mayo, but I don’t know if he’s good enough to overcome Ullrich. Jan Ullrich is just too good. He beat Mayo by 6 minutes last year, and I don’t think one time trial in the mountains will be enough for Mayo to beat Ullrich, but I expect it to be a close race, probably decided on the last (flat!) time trial. So my pick…

1) Armstrong
2) Ullrich
3) Mayo
And Hamilton has a good shot too.


BAKER: We’ve done this in long form, but now I’ve got to actually make a pick. I think we’ve narrowed it down to these four riders, and barring a crash, they should finish top five, with a mention for maybe Basso or Heras to crash the top five. Heras and Mayo both have the same weakness: time trailing. However, this won’t be that huge of a liability this year due to the loss of a flat time trial. Ullrich won’t get his time trial shot until late, and while he’s an excellent climber, he’s not in the same class as these guys. Hamilton might be the best time trailer out there right now, even better than Lance at this point in their careers. And he can climb just as well.

However, his team is not as strong, and in the end, the Posties will do their job and break all of the contenders. Lance is going to lean heavily on his team, a luxury that only Ullrich has in terms of support quality. And we know Armstrong is better than Ullrich. So my pick is:

1) Armstrong
2) Hamilton
3) Ullrich


Green

GIOIA: There aren’t many points available after the race hits the Alps, so having a big first week is the key here. Alessandro Petacchi is by far the best sprinter, so he could build a huge lead. The problem is that there is no reason to suspect he will finish the race, so maybe there will be a mad scramble once he quits. I’ll bet on Robbie McEwen, who has been the best man in the green jersey competition over the last few years. Since I was too predictable in predicting the yellow, I’ll throw a curveball here…Thor Hushovd in second, and Baden Cooke, the defending champ, in third. I’ll call Eric Zabel the outside shot because even though he’s slower, he’s extremely consistent.

BAKER: We agree that if Petacchi finishes, he wins green. Zabel is the smartest sprinter out there, as he just finds a way to pick up every intermediate point there is. You have to at least mention Cipo and O’Grady, though both are slipping. Nazon carries the hearts and dreams of France winning something, and he could make a showing in the Green. You stole my Hushovd pick, but I still see the two Australians duking it out. Let’s see McEwen actually win one.

1) McEwen
2) Cooke
3) Hushovd

Polka Dots

GIOIA: The rules have been changed to award more points for the climbs at the ends of stages. That means Richard Virenque can’t win it on one day’s work. It’s hard to predict this because the new rules change the strategy. Maybe the elite climbers in contention for yellow will care about the KoM, maybe not. I’ll predict Mayo to win it, Virenque in second, Heras in third. Outside shot to Lance Armstrong.

BAKER: It’s hard to project because we don’t know how the points will really be redistributed. I mean, we can read the charts, but we don’t know if it’ll actually reward honest climbing, or the Virenque one-day strategy. I think Heras realizes he’s outclassed in the GC and goes for the dots instead.

1) Heras
2) Mayo
3) Armstrong


White

GIOIA: OK, it’s completely impossible to pick this. How can we predict who will be the best rider under the age of 25? Most of these guys have never even raced the Tour. Denis Menchov is too old to defend his title. Here’s a wild guess. 1) Michael Rogers. 2) Juan Mercado. 3) Sylvain Chavanel.

You’ll have to keep an eye on the race to see how wrong I am.

BAKER: It’s a crapshoot, but I’ll throw out another name: Michele Scarponi. Domina Vacanze has nothing else to ride for, really. So why not ride for the white? Rogers is the favorite, but I’m still skeptical.

1) Scarponi
2) Chavanel
3) Rogers