Baker: Lance is a favorite once again, and he looks like a good bet to get the magical sixth yellow jersey. However, Indurain looked just as invincible, and when it ended, it ended quickly for him. So let's look at the very top contenders and what they need to win.
MAYO.
Baker: He won't be hurt by his team as much due to the new team time trial rules. And, as we've discussed, a time trial up Alpe d'Huez really helps him. He's not a pure time trialist, but he may even be a better climber than Lance, and the time trial aspect of Huez has to help Mayo a lot. He's got to be salivating over this course, and if he's ever going to win the Tour, this is it.
Gioia: I think his mom sat on the committee that designed the course. He’s already won on Alpe d’Huez, so this could be a time trial he could win. Mayo is a legit threat for a podium finish, and to win it all. Last month he beat Armstrong by two minutes in the Mont Ventoux time trial at the Dauphine Libere. And let’s not forget, Mayo wasn’t even the fastest man on his team last year—Haimar Zubeldia will be back in ‘04.
ULRICH.
Baker: As always, he's out of shape. If he had any work ethic whatsoever, he would have several more yellow jerseys. I don't think it's that he's a lazy bum, I just think he knows in his heart of hearts that he cannot beat Lance.
Gioia: Every year we hear that Ullrich is out of shape, and every year he beats everyone (except Lance). Losing a flat time trial is going to hurt his chances because that’s his best weapon. We both have a lot of respect for Ullrich, but I do believe this year he’ll see his toughest competition for a podium spot. And those people who think he’s out of shape should check the results of the Tour of Switzerland—look at the top.
HAMILTON.
Baker: Sevilla knows he's a lieutenant, so he doesn't have those problems to deal with. He's a terrific time trialist, so he can compete with Lance there. And he proved last year he's the toughest human being on earth, almost reaching the podium despite racing with a
broken collarbone. There's only three riders in the field who aren't afraid of Lance: Vino, Hamilton, and Heras.
Gioia: Maybe he’s not afraid of Lance, but I get the feeling that Hamilton thinks he can’t beat Armstrong unless he gets a little help—like Armstrong having a crash, a puncture, an illness, etc. Tyler is with a new team, but Phonak appears to be a decent crew. It’s hard to predict how Tyler will finish. He’s got the all-around tools to win, but he’s not the best at any one thing, nor have we seen him attack repeatedly.
HERAS.
Baker: He can't really time trial, but he's been Lance's prime domestique. Now he rides for himself. It was really inevitable, there's only so long a guy of his skills can play second fiddle. But now it's put up or shut up time. By leaving Postal, he seems to be
saying he can beat Postal, so he has more pressure on him than any other contender. If he doesn't reach the podium, he'll be second guessed for leaving the most successful team.
Gioia: Heras needs a 3 minute lead over Armstrong, Hamilton, Vinokourov, and Ullrich going into the final time trial in order to win. But I predict Heras is to play a great role in this race. Roberto Heras unleashed in the mountains may do more to break up the field than he did as Lance’s domestique.
VINOKOUROV.
Baker: Vino really made a splash last year, but he's got the problem of needing to get Telekom to work for him, not Ulrich. Telekom is really desperate to be the team that unseats Lance, and in their hubris, they have too many chiefs and not enough Indians. Who is this team going to ride for? It should ride for Vino, but that's no sure
thing.
Gioia: Telekom left him off the team. I wonder if he had a real problem or if Ullrich put his foot down. In any case, last year’s #3, and a real threat to Armstrong isn’t in the race.
Baker: A shocking move by Telekom, and one that speaks to Ullrich’s weaknesses.
That's about it. Beloki and Leipheimer deserve a mention, but they aren't serious threats to win. So that's a six-man race, eight if you count those two.
Gioia: Beloki was on the start list until he left his team. His career is just one bizarre turn after another. There are a few other names worth mentioning, not because they are podium favorites, but because they should be among the elite climbers. Ivan Basso has turned in two quality races in the last two years. Now he’s riding for CSC, which is a team that could actually provide him some support. Francisco Mancebo and Denis Menchov are a sold 1-2 punch for Illes Baleares (formerly Banesto). Aitor Gonzalez and Gilberto Simoni get their names mentioned because they’ve won major tours in the past, but I don’t expect to see them in contention.
Baker: Who can beat Armstrong? Really, who? If Ulrich couldn't do it in his prime, he can't do it now. Mayo, while a chic pick, doesn't strike me as a winner due to his time trialing weakness (and his team). Heras is like Mayo only not as good. I really think we're looking at one man with a good chance of pulling the upset: Hamilton. Hamilton really showed a lot in last year's Tour. Yeah, he's never made the podium, but I think he's ready to step up and make the Leap.
I'm not committed to picking him just yet, but I'm leaning towards Hamilton winning the whole thing.
Gioia: After last year people may feel emboldened to pick against Armstrong, and his competitors will feel emboldened to attack him. So, it’s possible the reign is ending. I reach the opposite conclusion. Armstrong had a bad race and still won. Last year he had a stomach virus, two crashes, severe dehydration, and was run off the road by Beloki’s crash. And he still won by a minute. I’m still picking Armstrong to win it. He may not be the strongest man every day like in 1999-2002, but I think he’ll be the strongest on most days. I think he’ll be in top form this year and able to match the attacks that he couldn’t match last year.
How to beat Armstrong…he’s known for great strategy, but his strategy has an Achilles’ heel. The old model of “just watch Ullrich” is no longer practical. To be sure, he must watch Ullrich and consider him the greatest threat, but if he only devotes his attention to Ullrich, the other contenders will take advantage of the distraction. Armstrong must match the early attacks of Mayo and Heras. He needs to use those attacks to drop the other competitors. Up until last year, Lance’s strategy was to attack hard on the first mountain stage. If he’s feeling well this year, expect it again.
Baker: If the other riders are relying on a flaw in US Postal strategy, they will lose. It’s as simple as that. Armstrong’s greatest strength is that he is perhaps the best tactician ever. Their strategy is always picture perfect as well, adapted to the changing conditions.
You’re only going to beat Lance by out time-trialing him, and the list of people who can do that is about two cyclists long. Or you can outclimb him, and the list of people who can do that is about three cyclists long. Unfortunately, it’s different riders on each list. But you are never, ever, ever going to beat him on tactics and strategy. Every contender is thinking the same thing, just hang with Lance until either Alpe d’Huez if you’re a climber, or the last time trial if you’re a trialist. Does anyone think they are going to crack him on the mountains?
In the end, you just can’t pick against Lance. He’s the best until someone proves it otherwise.
MAYO.
Baker: He won't be hurt by his team as much due to the new team time trial rules. And, as we've discussed, a time trial up Alpe d'Huez really helps him. He's not a pure time trialist, but he may even be a better climber than Lance, and the time trial aspect of Huez has to help Mayo a lot. He's got to be salivating over this course, and if he's ever going to win the Tour, this is it.
Gioia: I think his mom sat on the committee that designed the course. He’s already won on Alpe d’Huez, so this could be a time trial he could win. Mayo is a legit threat for a podium finish, and to win it all. Last month he beat Armstrong by two minutes in the Mont Ventoux time trial at the Dauphine Libere. And let’s not forget, Mayo wasn’t even the fastest man on his team last year—Haimar Zubeldia will be back in ‘04.
ULRICH.
Baker: As always, he's out of shape. If he had any work ethic whatsoever, he would have several more yellow jerseys. I don't think it's that he's a lazy bum, I just think he knows in his heart of hearts that he cannot beat Lance.
Gioia: Every year we hear that Ullrich is out of shape, and every year he beats everyone (except Lance). Losing a flat time trial is going to hurt his chances because that’s his best weapon. We both have a lot of respect for Ullrich, but I do believe this year he’ll see his toughest competition for a podium spot. And those people who think he’s out of shape should check the results of the Tour of Switzerland—look at the top.
HAMILTON.
Baker: Sevilla knows he's a lieutenant, so he doesn't have those problems to deal with. He's a terrific time trialist, so he can compete with Lance there. And he proved last year he's the toughest human being on earth, almost reaching the podium despite racing with a
broken collarbone. There's only three riders in the field who aren't afraid of Lance: Vino, Hamilton, and Heras.
Gioia: Maybe he’s not afraid of Lance, but I get the feeling that Hamilton thinks he can’t beat Armstrong unless he gets a little help—like Armstrong having a crash, a puncture, an illness, etc. Tyler is with a new team, but Phonak appears to be a decent crew. It’s hard to predict how Tyler will finish. He’s got the all-around tools to win, but he’s not the best at any one thing, nor have we seen him attack repeatedly.
HERAS.
Baker: He can't really time trial, but he's been Lance's prime domestique. Now he rides for himself. It was really inevitable, there's only so long a guy of his skills can play second fiddle. But now it's put up or shut up time. By leaving Postal, he seems to be
saying he can beat Postal, so he has more pressure on him than any other contender. If he doesn't reach the podium, he'll be second guessed for leaving the most successful team.
Gioia: Heras needs a 3 minute lead over Armstrong, Hamilton, Vinokourov, and Ullrich going into the final time trial in order to win. But I predict Heras is to play a great role in this race. Roberto Heras unleashed in the mountains may do more to break up the field than he did as Lance’s domestique.
VINOKOUROV.
Baker: Vino really made a splash last year, but he's got the problem of needing to get Telekom to work for him, not Ulrich. Telekom is really desperate to be the team that unseats Lance, and in their hubris, they have too many chiefs and not enough Indians. Who is this team going to ride for? It should ride for Vino, but that's no sure
thing.
Gioia: Telekom left him off the team. I wonder if he had a real problem or if Ullrich put his foot down. In any case, last year’s #3, and a real threat to Armstrong isn’t in the race.
Baker: A shocking move by Telekom, and one that speaks to Ullrich’s weaknesses.
That's about it. Beloki and Leipheimer deserve a mention, but they aren't serious threats to win. So that's a six-man race, eight if you count those two.
Gioia: Beloki was on the start list until he left his team. His career is just one bizarre turn after another. There are a few other names worth mentioning, not because they are podium favorites, but because they should be among the elite climbers. Ivan Basso has turned in two quality races in the last two years. Now he’s riding for CSC, which is a team that could actually provide him some support. Francisco Mancebo and Denis Menchov are a sold 1-2 punch for Illes Baleares (formerly Banesto). Aitor Gonzalez and Gilberto Simoni get their names mentioned because they’ve won major tours in the past, but I don’t expect to see them in contention.
Baker: Who can beat Armstrong? Really, who? If Ulrich couldn't do it in his prime, he can't do it now. Mayo, while a chic pick, doesn't strike me as a winner due to his time trialing weakness (and his team). Heras is like Mayo only not as good. I really think we're looking at one man with a good chance of pulling the upset: Hamilton. Hamilton really showed a lot in last year's Tour. Yeah, he's never made the podium, but I think he's ready to step up and make the Leap.
I'm not committed to picking him just yet, but I'm leaning towards Hamilton winning the whole thing.
Gioia: After last year people may feel emboldened to pick against Armstrong, and his competitors will feel emboldened to attack him. So, it’s possible the reign is ending. I reach the opposite conclusion. Armstrong had a bad race and still won. Last year he had a stomach virus, two crashes, severe dehydration, and was run off the road by Beloki’s crash. And he still won by a minute. I’m still picking Armstrong to win it. He may not be the strongest man every day like in 1999-2002, but I think he’ll be the strongest on most days. I think he’ll be in top form this year and able to match the attacks that he couldn’t match last year.
How to beat Armstrong…he’s known for great strategy, but his strategy has an Achilles’ heel. The old model of “just watch Ullrich” is no longer practical. To be sure, he must watch Ullrich and consider him the greatest threat, but if he only devotes his attention to Ullrich, the other contenders will take advantage of the distraction. Armstrong must match the early attacks of Mayo and Heras. He needs to use those attacks to drop the other competitors. Up until last year, Lance’s strategy was to attack hard on the first mountain stage. If he’s feeling well this year, expect it again.
Baker: If the other riders are relying on a flaw in US Postal strategy, they will lose. It’s as simple as that. Armstrong’s greatest strength is that he is perhaps the best tactician ever. Their strategy is always picture perfect as well, adapted to the changing conditions.
You’re only going to beat Lance by out time-trialing him, and the list of people who can do that is about two cyclists long. Or you can outclimb him, and the list of people who can do that is about three cyclists long. Unfortunately, it’s different riders on each list. But you are never, ever, ever going to beat him on tactics and strategy. Every contender is thinking the same thing, just hang with Lance until either Alpe d’Huez if you’re a climber, or the last time trial if you’re a trialist. Does anyone think they are going to crack him on the mountains?
In the end, you just can’t pick against Lance. He’s the best until someone proves it otherwise.
posted by Poseur at 4:57 PM
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