Tour de France 2004 Team Preview
US Postal:
GIOIA: It’s virtually the same team that won the previous tour, with the obvious difference that Heras is gone. But Heras was replaced with Jose Azevedo, who came from the old ONCE team. Azevedo is a climber and a good time trialist who actually beat Heras in 2002 and 2003. Beltran, Rubiera, and Azevedo make a great core of mountain domestiques. Padrnos, Ekimov, and Hincapie are all a year older, but it’s obvious they know how to control a peloton. Armstrong has a solid team behind him.
BAKER: We’re calling the best team on earth “solid”? How about awesome? Dominant? The very key to Lance’s victories? Not only is this team loaded, they have one mission: win it for Lance. There’s no distractions like worrying about picking up intermediate sprint points or trying to pull down a stage win or two. It’s all about Lance. It’s all about winning this thing. His victory is their victory.
Telekom (T-Mobil):
GIOIA: The big news is that they didn’t put Alexandre Vinokourov on the team. This team is so loaded they can tell last year’s 3rd place rider to sit out. That makes Jan Ullrich the clear leader of this team and there will be no dispute about who the boss is. Aside from Ullrich this team has some big names in Santiago Botero, Daniele Nardello, and Erik Zabel. However, Telekom has been loaded before and come up empty. A great team on paper, but they are without their most explosive rider.
BAKER: The decision to leave Vino at home is ridiculous. Honestly, I thought he had a better shot at beating Lance, as Ullrich just keeps getting mentally and physically punished by Armstrong. The decision smacks of Ullrich’s own insecurities as he wants to be the man who beats Lance, not some upstart teammate. Zabel is always a threat to win the green, though.
Fassa Bortolo:
GIOIA: Alessandro Petacchi seems unbeatable in the sprints. He won 4 stages last year and won 7 in the Giro last May. If he stays in the race he can win the Green jersey easily, but why would we think that Petacchi can finish? Fassa lost Ivan Basso last year, but they have a pretty good GC rider in Aitor Gonzalez.
BAKER: Basso made the right move, as he’d done pretty much all he could with Fassa. And besides, their Tour is all about Petacchi. If he bothers to finish, he’ll win the green. It’s as simple as that, he is clearly the best sprinter in the world. Of course, finishing is a huge question. I’ll guess four stage wins and a withdraw the first day in the Alps.
Cofidis:
GIOIA: Since David Millar admitted to doping and has been ruled ineligible, so that removes their best hope for a stage win. Stuart O’Grady is a good rider who may contend for stage wins and the green jersey, but this team just doesn’t have much.
BAKER: Really, this team is no better than AG2R. Millar’s always been a bit of a running joke, and his loss may be a good thing in the long run for this team, as they finally realize he’s never going to win anything. O’Grady’s window for the green jersey appears to have closed, passed by fellow Australians.
CSC:
GIOIA: Last year they were awesome, but Tyler Hamilton has left the team. They replaced him with Ivan Basso, who is a good Italian that actually seems to care about riding the Tour well. This team has 3 former stage winners in Carlos Sastre, Jakob Piil, and Jens Voigt. CSC has really good management in Bjarne Riis too, so look for them to play a big role.
BAKER: If they could only decide on whom to ride for. Sastre or Basso? Both finished in the top ten last year, so it’s not like either of these guys are chumps. And as you point out, there are lots of stage winners on this team. And let’s not forget former Great American Hope Bobby Julich. They probably aren’t in contention for any individual awards, though a podium finish for either Basso or Sastre would be nice, but they are the front-runners for the team title.
Gerolsteiner:
GIOIA: They didn’t do much of anything last year. Danilo Hondo is a pretty good sprinter who stands an outside chance of getting a stage win. Georg Totschnig is a pretty good all-around rider, but no real threat to win. Maybe if he has a great race, he could contend for the top 10. And Uwe Peschel is a good time trialist—provided he can stay on his bike. Gerolsteiner used up all their rookie mistakes last year, so they had better show a pulse this year.
BAKER: Udo Bolts is also the best name in cycling. But really, this team brings almost nothing to the table.
Rabobank:
GIOIA: Levi Leipheimer crashed out in stage one last year, so you know he’s going to try to redeem himself this year. In fact the whole Rabobank team had a bad year in 2003. Oscar Freire isn’t riding, but they are brining 4 former stage winners in Michael Boogard, Marc Wauters, Karsten Kroon, and Erik Dekker. Rabobank should be back in force this year.
BAKER: Last year was awful. Leipheimer is a terrific rider, but who will ride for him. This team excels at flat stages, but they don’t have a sprinting contender. And then there’s our mascot, Erik Dekker, man of the annual withdraw. I do like this team, but they need to decide what the hell they are doing. Are they going for the sprints or for the GC?
Saeco:
GIOIA: One of the strongest teams in the world, but you’d never know it if you only watched them in the Tour. Simoni and Casagrande will be there. I expect this team will do like last year—fall back behind the pack, then try to salvage their race by getting someone in a breakaway for a stage win.
BAKER: Hmm… we don’t hear much bluster from Simoni this year. I wonder why not? Finishing over two and half hours out tends to bring some humility.
Quick Step-Davitamon:
GIOIA: They had a good Tour last year with two stage wins and a Polka Dot jersey for Richard Virenque. He’ll be back to vie for a 7th King of the Mountains, but since the rules have changed to put more emphasis on the final climbs, he’s going to have a hard time beating the stronger climbers. Paolo Bettini is another rider to watch on this team.
BAKER: This team is pretty good. I’ll say it now, Virenque won’t win the dots, and DuFaux won’t finish second in the climbers classification again. They seem to think Rogers is the future, but he was a complete washout in his first Tour. Maybe he’ll contend for the white, but right now, he’s nothing but hype.
Euskaltel-Euskadi:
GIOIA: The Basque team has found its niche. Zubeldia and Mayo can do whatever they want in the mountains, and the rest of the team gets to look snappy in those orange uniforms. They’ll be totally absent for the first 11 stages, then Mayo and Zubledia will rock your world in the mountains. Two top 10 riders last year, aiming for a podium finish this year.
BAKER: A podium finish? They don’t want the podium, they want Mayo to win this thing. The organizers bent over backwards to make a course as amenable as possible for Mayo, so this is really his best chance to win the yellow. The new rules concerning team time trials also help out Mayo. And don’t forget, Zubeldia actually finished ahead of Mayo last year.
Illes Balears—Banesto:
GIOIA: Henceforth we’ll be calling them Banesto. As usual, Banesto’s “B” team is pretty darn good. Expect more solid performances as they fly below the radar of the elite teams in the Tour. They’ve got a ton of good climbers. Last year Denis Menchov won the white jersey after taking it from his own teammate, and, they still have Francisco Mancebo, who has been in the top 10 for 3 of the last 4 years.
BAKER: Karpets will ride for the white, and Mancebo and Menchov hope they can crack the top ten. Remember when this team was awesome? When did their expectations get so low? They are a good team, but nothing special anymore. It’s a shame.
Liberty Seguros:
GIOIA: This is Roberto Heras’ new team. Much like Euskaltel, we won’t see much of them until the race gets to the mountains. Heras has decent support from Isidro Nozal and Igor Gonzales, but he doesn’t really need it once they get to the mountains. Heras can turn in a great finish, but I think he’s not likely to win the Tour. I wonder if he’ll shoot for the King of the Mountains jersey. Not as big a prize, but he could certainly win it.
BAKER: Heras wants to win this thing. He left Postal so he could win this thing, there’s no point to leave the Blue Train if all you’re gonna do is ride for polka dots. It would be a nice consolation prize, but he’s got a team put together for the express purpose of winning the yellow. You even left off quality domestiques like Nozal and Vande Velde.
Alessio-Bianchi:
GIOIA: This team doesn’t have very much to work with. They should pin their hopes on getting someone into a breakaway and hoping he can steal a stage win.
BAKER: They’ve got some decent riders, but that’s about it. Noe, Caucchioli, Moller, and Baldato make a good core of domestiques, but there’s just no one to ride for. They aren’t a contender to win anything, but they won’t embarrass themselves, and may actually steal a stage win or something.
Lotto-Domo:
GIOIA: Robbie McEwen is a contender for the green jersey. He’s never relied on his team, and that’s a good thing, because they aren’t very good. All eggs in one basket here.
BAKER: He actually tries as hard as possible to stay away from them. McEwen’s strategy is to simply stalk the best sprinter, and then ride out and beat them man to man. His team just gets in the way. He’ll stalk Petacchi in the first weeks, and then switch to Cooke.
Phonak:
GIOIA: Tyler Hamilton’s new team also has all their eggs in one basket, but Tyler’s a pretty good horse to bet on. Oscar Sevilla will make a very good domestique in the mountains. Outside of them the team isn’t notable. Hamilton is capable of making enough headlines for an entire team.
BAKER: He finished fourth with a broken collarbone. A podium finish seems well within his grasp, and maybe even the yellow. The team was good enough to dominate the Tour de Romandie, so while it isn’t Telekom, they are still good. He gets out from the crowd at CSC and is the undisputed team leader here. I really like his chances.
AG2r:
GIOIA: This team has never evolved. Kirsipuu and Nazon give them chances to steal a stage win, and Flickinger is a decent rider, but I’m stretching here. Their Tour is a success if they get a stage win. If they come away with nothing, it will be typical for them.
BAKER: Well, Nazon finished sixth last year in the quest for the green jersey, and Kirsipuu is a pretty good sprinter in his own right. The points title is wide open, and there’s no reason why Nazon can’t sneak in there with a lot of luck. Goubert’s their best shot in the GC, but if he fishes within one hour of the yellow, he would have had a great Tour. They don’t suck, but they aren’t a real factor.
Brioches la Boulangere:
GIOIA: A couple weeks ago I would have said that Brioches had reason to be hopeful because Joseba Beloki had joined their team. But then the sponsor announced they were leaving, and Beloki left the team too. So now they don’t have a jersey contender. The French will hype Sylvain Chavanel as some great cyclist in order to assuage their empty cupboard feeling.
BAKER: Well, there’s always Didier Rous. Rous is an interesting rider, as he always finishes with a respectable place (20th last year, about 30 minutes out), yet never actually threatens anybody. It’s a remarkable degree of consistent mediocrity. Chavanel will ride for the white jersey. Why not?
Credit Agricole:
GIOIA: Christophe Moreau actually had a good Tour last year, but he’s not really a threat for the yellow jersey. Botcharov is a pretty good rider too, but this team should pin its hopes on Thor Hushovd in the race for the green jersey.
BAKER: The change in Climber scoring hurts the French the most, as they usually win a jersey by having either Moreau or Virenque ride out for uncontested early climbs to gobble up points. Now, they won’t win any jerseys. This is a good team, but Moreau is past it. Halgand and Botcharov will finish in the top 50, but they have no one to support. Their real hope at a jersey is actually a solid one, Thor Hushovd, who finished fourth in the sprints last year.
FDJeux:
GIOIA: Matching last year’s output is a tall order. They wore all 4 jerseys, won the green jersey, and one stage. It’s pretty much the same crew again, but they will not be able to surprise anyone this year. Even so, consider this—FDJeux is now the best French team. That says a lot about how French cycling has fallen off the map.
BAKER: So far in fact that the best riders on this team, and most French teams, are Australian. Sandy Casar’s still eligible for the white, so this team has something else to do aside from defend Cooke’s green jersey. I’ll say they wear two jerseys this year.
RAGT:
GIOIA: I follow cycling a lot, but I’ve never heard of anyone on their roster. Hopefully one of them will work his way into a breakaway so we can see what their uniforms look like.
BAKER: Their team is a complete joke. They have no business riding in the tour. None.
Domina Vacanza:
GIOIA: This is the latest team to get Mario Cipollini, but now he’s 37 years old. It’s been a long time since the Tour invited Cipollini, and he’s probably too old to win any sprints. But we’ll consider it a success if he finishes the Tour.
BAKER: What the hell? A second tier Italian team invited to the Tour? Where is the plague of frogs or fire raining from the sky? OK, they are in the Tour just so Cipo can feel good about himself, but he’s not going to be a factor at all except at photo ops. In fact, the only guy who might contend for anything is Scarponi might make a run at the white jersey.
Kelme:
GIOIA: What? Kelme isn’t in the Tour? They had their team disqualified because of doping. This team used to be one of the elite. Now they are nothing, and the Tour goes on without them.
BAKER: ONCE has collapsed. Banesto has a new sponsor. Festina is long gone due to doping scandals. The Posties change sponsors next year. Everything is changing right now, positioning for the post-Lance world. There’s always Telekom.
US Postal:
GIOIA: It’s virtually the same team that won the previous tour, with the obvious difference that Heras is gone. But Heras was replaced with Jose Azevedo, who came from the old ONCE team. Azevedo is a climber and a good time trialist who actually beat Heras in 2002 and 2003. Beltran, Rubiera, and Azevedo make a great core of mountain domestiques. Padrnos, Ekimov, and Hincapie are all a year older, but it’s obvious they know how to control a peloton. Armstrong has a solid team behind him.
BAKER: We’re calling the best team on earth “solid”? How about awesome? Dominant? The very key to Lance’s victories? Not only is this team loaded, they have one mission: win it for Lance. There’s no distractions like worrying about picking up intermediate sprint points or trying to pull down a stage win or two. It’s all about Lance. It’s all about winning this thing. His victory is their victory.
Telekom (T-Mobil):
GIOIA: The big news is that they didn’t put Alexandre Vinokourov on the team. This team is so loaded they can tell last year’s 3rd place rider to sit out. That makes Jan Ullrich the clear leader of this team and there will be no dispute about who the boss is. Aside from Ullrich this team has some big names in Santiago Botero, Daniele Nardello, and Erik Zabel. However, Telekom has been loaded before and come up empty. A great team on paper, but they are without their most explosive rider.
BAKER: The decision to leave Vino at home is ridiculous. Honestly, I thought he had a better shot at beating Lance, as Ullrich just keeps getting mentally and physically punished by Armstrong. The decision smacks of Ullrich’s own insecurities as he wants to be the man who beats Lance, not some upstart teammate. Zabel is always a threat to win the green, though.
Fassa Bortolo:
GIOIA: Alessandro Petacchi seems unbeatable in the sprints. He won 4 stages last year and won 7 in the Giro last May. If he stays in the race he can win the Green jersey easily, but why would we think that Petacchi can finish? Fassa lost Ivan Basso last year, but they have a pretty good GC rider in Aitor Gonzalez.
BAKER: Basso made the right move, as he’d done pretty much all he could with Fassa. And besides, their Tour is all about Petacchi. If he bothers to finish, he’ll win the green. It’s as simple as that, he is clearly the best sprinter in the world. Of course, finishing is a huge question. I’ll guess four stage wins and a withdraw the first day in the Alps.
Cofidis:
GIOIA: Since David Millar admitted to doping and has been ruled ineligible, so that removes their best hope for a stage win. Stuart O’Grady is a good rider who may contend for stage wins and the green jersey, but this team just doesn’t have much.
BAKER: Really, this team is no better than AG2R. Millar’s always been a bit of a running joke, and his loss may be a good thing in the long run for this team, as they finally realize he’s never going to win anything. O’Grady’s window for the green jersey appears to have closed, passed by fellow Australians.
CSC:
GIOIA: Last year they were awesome, but Tyler Hamilton has left the team. They replaced him with Ivan Basso, who is a good Italian that actually seems to care about riding the Tour well. This team has 3 former stage winners in Carlos Sastre, Jakob Piil, and Jens Voigt. CSC has really good management in Bjarne Riis too, so look for them to play a big role.
BAKER: If they could only decide on whom to ride for. Sastre or Basso? Both finished in the top ten last year, so it’s not like either of these guys are chumps. And as you point out, there are lots of stage winners on this team. And let’s not forget former Great American Hope Bobby Julich. They probably aren’t in contention for any individual awards, though a podium finish for either Basso or Sastre would be nice, but they are the front-runners for the team title.
Gerolsteiner:
GIOIA: They didn’t do much of anything last year. Danilo Hondo is a pretty good sprinter who stands an outside chance of getting a stage win. Georg Totschnig is a pretty good all-around rider, but no real threat to win. Maybe if he has a great race, he could contend for the top 10. And Uwe Peschel is a good time trialist—provided he can stay on his bike. Gerolsteiner used up all their rookie mistakes last year, so they had better show a pulse this year.
BAKER: Udo Bolts is also the best name in cycling. But really, this team brings almost nothing to the table.
Rabobank:
GIOIA: Levi Leipheimer crashed out in stage one last year, so you know he’s going to try to redeem himself this year. In fact the whole Rabobank team had a bad year in 2003. Oscar Freire isn’t riding, but they are brining 4 former stage winners in Michael Boogard, Marc Wauters, Karsten Kroon, and Erik Dekker. Rabobank should be back in force this year.
BAKER: Last year was awful. Leipheimer is a terrific rider, but who will ride for him. This team excels at flat stages, but they don’t have a sprinting contender. And then there’s our mascot, Erik Dekker, man of the annual withdraw. I do like this team, but they need to decide what the hell they are doing. Are they going for the sprints or for the GC?
Saeco:
GIOIA: One of the strongest teams in the world, but you’d never know it if you only watched them in the Tour. Simoni and Casagrande will be there. I expect this team will do like last year—fall back behind the pack, then try to salvage their race by getting someone in a breakaway for a stage win.
BAKER: Hmm… we don’t hear much bluster from Simoni this year. I wonder why not? Finishing over two and half hours out tends to bring some humility.
Quick Step-Davitamon:
GIOIA: They had a good Tour last year with two stage wins and a Polka Dot jersey for Richard Virenque. He’ll be back to vie for a 7th King of the Mountains, but since the rules have changed to put more emphasis on the final climbs, he’s going to have a hard time beating the stronger climbers. Paolo Bettini is another rider to watch on this team.
BAKER: This team is pretty good. I’ll say it now, Virenque won’t win the dots, and DuFaux won’t finish second in the climbers classification again. They seem to think Rogers is the future, but he was a complete washout in his first Tour. Maybe he’ll contend for the white, but right now, he’s nothing but hype.
Euskaltel-Euskadi:
GIOIA: The Basque team has found its niche. Zubeldia and Mayo can do whatever they want in the mountains, and the rest of the team gets to look snappy in those orange uniforms. They’ll be totally absent for the first 11 stages, then Mayo and Zubledia will rock your world in the mountains. Two top 10 riders last year, aiming for a podium finish this year.
BAKER: A podium finish? They don’t want the podium, they want Mayo to win this thing. The organizers bent over backwards to make a course as amenable as possible for Mayo, so this is really his best chance to win the yellow. The new rules concerning team time trials also help out Mayo. And don’t forget, Zubeldia actually finished ahead of Mayo last year.
Illes Balears—Banesto:
GIOIA: Henceforth we’ll be calling them Banesto. As usual, Banesto’s “B” team is pretty darn good. Expect more solid performances as they fly below the radar of the elite teams in the Tour. They’ve got a ton of good climbers. Last year Denis Menchov won the white jersey after taking it from his own teammate, and, they still have Francisco Mancebo, who has been in the top 10 for 3 of the last 4 years.
BAKER: Karpets will ride for the white, and Mancebo and Menchov hope they can crack the top ten. Remember when this team was awesome? When did their expectations get so low? They are a good team, but nothing special anymore. It’s a shame.
Liberty Seguros:
GIOIA: This is Roberto Heras’ new team. Much like Euskaltel, we won’t see much of them until the race gets to the mountains. Heras has decent support from Isidro Nozal and Igor Gonzales, but he doesn’t really need it once they get to the mountains. Heras can turn in a great finish, but I think he’s not likely to win the Tour. I wonder if he’ll shoot for the King of the Mountains jersey. Not as big a prize, but he could certainly win it.
BAKER: Heras wants to win this thing. He left Postal so he could win this thing, there’s no point to leave the Blue Train if all you’re gonna do is ride for polka dots. It would be a nice consolation prize, but he’s got a team put together for the express purpose of winning the yellow. You even left off quality domestiques like Nozal and Vande Velde.
Alessio-Bianchi:
GIOIA: This team doesn’t have very much to work with. They should pin their hopes on getting someone into a breakaway and hoping he can steal a stage win.
BAKER: They’ve got some decent riders, but that’s about it. Noe, Caucchioli, Moller, and Baldato make a good core of domestiques, but there’s just no one to ride for. They aren’t a contender to win anything, but they won’t embarrass themselves, and may actually steal a stage win or something.
Lotto-Domo:
GIOIA: Robbie McEwen is a contender for the green jersey. He’s never relied on his team, and that’s a good thing, because they aren’t very good. All eggs in one basket here.
BAKER: He actually tries as hard as possible to stay away from them. McEwen’s strategy is to simply stalk the best sprinter, and then ride out and beat them man to man. His team just gets in the way. He’ll stalk Petacchi in the first weeks, and then switch to Cooke.
Phonak:
GIOIA: Tyler Hamilton’s new team also has all their eggs in one basket, but Tyler’s a pretty good horse to bet on. Oscar Sevilla will make a very good domestique in the mountains. Outside of them the team isn’t notable. Hamilton is capable of making enough headlines for an entire team.
BAKER: He finished fourth with a broken collarbone. A podium finish seems well within his grasp, and maybe even the yellow. The team was good enough to dominate the Tour de Romandie, so while it isn’t Telekom, they are still good. He gets out from the crowd at CSC and is the undisputed team leader here. I really like his chances.
AG2r:
GIOIA: This team has never evolved. Kirsipuu and Nazon give them chances to steal a stage win, and Flickinger is a decent rider, but I’m stretching here. Their Tour is a success if they get a stage win. If they come away with nothing, it will be typical for them.
BAKER: Well, Nazon finished sixth last year in the quest for the green jersey, and Kirsipuu is a pretty good sprinter in his own right. The points title is wide open, and there’s no reason why Nazon can’t sneak in there with a lot of luck. Goubert’s their best shot in the GC, but if he fishes within one hour of the yellow, he would have had a great Tour. They don’t suck, but they aren’t a real factor.
Brioches la Boulangere:
GIOIA: A couple weeks ago I would have said that Brioches had reason to be hopeful because Joseba Beloki had joined their team. But then the sponsor announced they were leaving, and Beloki left the team too. So now they don’t have a jersey contender. The French will hype Sylvain Chavanel as some great cyclist in order to assuage their empty cupboard feeling.
BAKER: Well, there’s always Didier Rous. Rous is an interesting rider, as he always finishes with a respectable place (20th last year, about 30 minutes out), yet never actually threatens anybody. It’s a remarkable degree of consistent mediocrity. Chavanel will ride for the white jersey. Why not?
Credit Agricole:
GIOIA: Christophe Moreau actually had a good Tour last year, but he’s not really a threat for the yellow jersey. Botcharov is a pretty good rider too, but this team should pin its hopes on Thor Hushovd in the race for the green jersey.
BAKER: The change in Climber scoring hurts the French the most, as they usually win a jersey by having either Moreau or Virenque ride out for uncontested early climbs to gobble up points. Now, they won’t win any jerseys. This is a good team, but Moreau is past it. Halgand and Botcharov will finish in the top 50, but they have no one to support. Their real hope at a jersey is actually a solid one, Thor Hushovd, who finished fourth in the sprints last year.
FDJeux:
GIOIA: Matching last year’s output is a tall order. They wore all 4 jerseys, won the green jersey, and one stage. It’s pretty much the same crew again, but they will not be able to surprise anyone this year. Even so, consider this—FDJeux is now the best French team. That says a lot about how French cycling has fallen off the map.
BAKER: So far in fact that the best riders on this team, and most French teams, are Australian. Sandy Casar’s still eligible for the white, so this team has something else to do aside from defend Cooke’s green jersey. I’ll say they wear two jerseys this year.
RAGT:
GIOIA: I follow cycling a lot, but I’ve never heard of anyone on their roster. Hopefully one of them will work his way into a breakaway so we can see what their uniforms look like.
BAKER: Their team is a complete joke. They have no business riding in the tour. None.
Domina Vacanza:
GIOIA: This is the latest team to get Mario Cipollini, but now he’s 37 years old. It’s been a long time since the Tour invited Cipollini, and he’s probably too old to win any sprints. But we’ll consider it a success if he finishes the Tour.
BAKER: What the hell? A second tier Italian team invited to the Tour? Where is the plague of frogs or fire raining from the sky? OK, they are in the Tour just so Cipo can feel good about himself, but he’s not going to be a factor at all except at photo ops. In fact, the only guy who might contend for anything is Scarponi might make a run at the white jersey.
Kelme:
GIOIA: What? Kelme isn’t in the Tour? They had their team disqualified because of doping. This team used to be one of the elite. Now they are nothing, and the Tour goes on without them.
BAKER: ONCE has collapsed. Banesto has a new sponsor. Festina is long gone due to doping scandals. The Posties change sponsors next year. Everything is changing right now, positioning for the post-Lance world. There’s always Telekom.
posted by Poseur at 4:45 PM
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