Saturday, July 05, 2003

The Prologue

In a shocking twist, something bad happened to David Millar. Millar's a really good rider, and if he wasn't David Millar, he might have a chance to win something. But, I swear I have never seen a rider who seemed more cursed by fate. Whatever happens, its never Millar's fault, it just happens. It's like God hates him or something. Or at least doesn't want him riding a bicycle. He had a 5 second lead at the first split, and Millar was absolutely tearing up the course. He was going to wear the yellow jersey, even if only for a day. But as he neared the finish line, he blew a chain. He slowed and switched gears, so he only lost a few seconds, but he lost the Prologue by 0.14 seconds. A pretty typical day for Millar.

Jason's right, you can't win anything in the first week, only lose. But the first day is a nice day to make a statement. Brad McGee's winning ride puts him in yellow, and maybe he'll keep that honor for a few days. He's a good enough sprinter to thrive in these flat stages. He's not in the race to win yellow, but he's got to be thrilled to at least have a day in the maillot jaune. However, what is important for McGee is that he won 15 points in the Points standings. None of the other contenders for the Green took any points, most went to riders like Ullrich, Beloki, and Armstrong. Those guys certainly aren't going to kill themselves on the sprints. So McGee just got himself a nice 15 point lead over Zabel et al. McEwen needed 280 to win last year, so 15 points is not a difference maker, but his final margin was only 19 points over Zabel. Those 15 points will certainly come in handy, primarily because no other sprinter won any. A big win for McGee, and already a successful Tour for FDJ.

As for other riders, the big guns all made their presence felt. First off, here's who had a bad day, finishing over 30 seconds out:
Heras Doesn't mean anything. Conserve energy in the first week, and we already knew US Postal war riding for Lance. There is no backup plan.
Mancebo Banesto can't be pleased with this. Their captain is already down half a minute and the race is only 7 kilometers run.
McEwen, Zabel, and Pettachi They need to show they can come within half a minute on a 7k course to McGee. We're not asking for much. I don't think it means anything, but you like to at least make a decent showing on the first day. These sprinters didn't.

Outside of McGee, the big winner was clearly Jan Ullrich, Unlike the other top riders, Ullrich needed a good first day just to dispel any doubts about his racing condition. He had a fabulous ride, and now sits in fourth just 2 seconds off the pace. He has an insignifigant 5 second lead over Armstrong, but it is worth noting, Ullrich is the early pace-setter. He looked good.

It's just the Prologue, though. Real racing begins tommorrow when the sprinters should reign supreme for about a week. Enjoy.

Friday, July 04, 2003

The 100st anniversary edition of the Tour de France begins Saturday, July 5th. Three weeks and 2000 miles later it will end in Paris.

Allow me to break with tradition and say something good about the TdF organizing committee. They did a good job designing the course. They mixed in tradition-like starting in Paris like in the original Tour-followed the traditional route, and scheduled stops at several mainstays. But to make room for all that, the race will hit the mountains a couple days early.

Week one: You can't win the TdF in the first week, but you can certainly lose it. A crash and a dismal team time trial can set a rider far behind the pack. During this week the big guns will ride smart-near the front, but apart from the action. They'll let the sprinters fight for stage wins and points; they'll let contenders go on long breakaways.

And the breakaways are a beautiful thing. A mediocre rider will consider his whole year a success if he busts his rump a few hours one day, speeding away in a pack of 10 riders. The breakaway will work together to hold off the peloton, but as they approach the finish line, they'll turn on each other, play mental games, and strike at the opportune moment to steal the stage win. And just maybe that mediocre rider will have the highlight of his career by snagging the leader's yellow jersey for a day or two.

Stage 4-the first red letter day. A 69km team time trial. Each 9 member team races as a unit. The start is staggered so each team is alone against the clock. The top 5 riders of each team all get the same time, so the contenders have to rely on the team heavily. ONCE & USPS will excel, Saeco & Telekom will suffer. This is when the race starts to take shape, it provides the first real separation among the contenders.

The rest of the week features more stages on the flats & rolling hills. Fodder for the opportunists and battleground for the green jersey contenders.

Week two: Abandon every hope, all ye who enter. The gloves will be off when the race hits the first mountain stage on July 12. Stage 7 is a mammoth 226 km with 5 climbs. Lance Armstrong has made a living by attacking the field on the first day in the mountains. That's his m.o., and he'll do it again. When that torture is over, the next day, the riders will climb l'Alpe d'Huez, probably the most famous climb in the TdF. The stage features 4 climbs. The second is 12km at a 6.8% grade (6.8m rise in altitude per 100m). The third is 18 km at 6.7%. The final ascent is a grueling 14km at 8% grade. By this time the field will be blown apart. Yet, the following day is another mountain stage. By this point the contenders may call off the dogs to recover. So, a lesser climber may steal the day with a breakaway . All the while, climbers will be accumulating points in the King of the Mountains competition. The mountains will also weed out the guys who can't hack it. Lots of the sprinters & youngsters will throw in the towel.

There is a rest day in week two and also a couple downhill stages to let the riders catch their breath before Stage12, the first individual time trial. The true contenders will rise up in the race of truth-47km alone, against the clock. At this time all the good climbers who can't ride a time trial will fade away, and there will be no more than 5 contenders remaining with a legit shot.

Week 3: Immediately following the time trial, the riders return to the mountains-four days in the Pyrenees. Even the strong climbers from the previous week will be struggling. This is when the leader's team will be crucial to protecting him from attacks. Of course, the leaders will be content to let some climbers-the ones far behind in the standings-spend 5 hours pedaling alone ahead of the field in an effort to win the stage. And the Pyrenees are a bit different than the Alps. It'll be warmer, and the climbs are steeper. The final climb into Bayonne is 9km at a 9.2% grade. In these 4 stages three themes will dominate: 1) the strategy of the leader to protect his advantage (does not apply to Claudio Chipucchi); 2) attrition-even the best athletes in the world can't hack it; 3) maneuvering for podium position-guys in 12th will try to crack the top 10, etc. OK, four themes, as the King of the Mountains competition will be decided in these days. Note: the fans in southern France love to paint porn on the road, so don't be alarmed when you see it from the aerial photographs.
Those who survive the mountains have two days on the flat roads (we'll get to see which sprinters survived) before the final test. Stage 19 is the second individual time trial. If there is any unfinished business in the overall standings, this is where it will be settled. By this point the riders are exhausted, but the best of the best find the strength. The following day they'll ride onto the Champs Elysees for the finish. Typically the race is already decided by then. Most of the ride is at an easy (for them) pace with some fanfare & horseplay. However, the last two green jerseys have been decided on the final stage, and in this stacked field it may happen again. In any event, there will be a mad dash to be the first man to the finish.

Wednesday, July 02, 2003

Waiting is the hardest part

Not much to say right now. The race doesn't start until July 5th. So now I'm just twidling my thumbs. So let's see what Chris Boardman has to say about the race:

Boardman is less sure when asked to compare Armstrong to the likes of Merckx and Indurain.

"How does he compare to the greats?

"Well, I think Indurain was the last of his breed. He left the sport with five Tour wins and not a single enemy.

"He was a true gentleman.

"Let's just say that Lance is a very good athlete."


Translation: Lance doesn't make friends. I'm okay with that. He's not there to make friends. He's their to crush their bodies and spirits. And it's harder to crush a friend.


Tuesday, July 01, 2003

YELLOW
STEPHEN: Armstrong is going to win unless he crashes. I’m sorry, he’s just that good. US Postal is loaded and his top threats all have weaknesses. Simoni is tired from the Giro, Ullrich is still recovering from a year away from the sport, and Botero’s breaking in a new team. Actually, I really like either Vino or Leipheimer to crash the party, but the guy who will push Armstrong the hardest is still Beloki. He just isn’t good enough to beat Lance head to head, though.
1. Armstrong
2. Beloki
3. Vinokourov
4. Simoni
5. Ullrich
Spolier: Leipheimer


JASON: To win it all, a rider has to avoid disaster and ride among the elite in the time trials and mountain climbs. Since 1999 there have only been two stages in which ANY of Lance’s chief competitors beat him by significant time in a time trial or mountain stage. And doing it once just isn’t enough, because Armstrong will attack, and he can torture his competition day after day. Beloki is much better than anyone else out there, and Ullrich is still elite despite his condition. A couple of the big guns (like Simoni, Garzelli, and Ullrich) will be set back by the team time trial. But yes, there will always be an unknown, an upstart to surprise us like Rumsas did last year. And I have no idea who it will be.

1. Lance Armstrong (USPS)
2. Joseba Beloki (ONCE)
3. Gilberto Simoni (Saeco)
4. Tyler Hamilton (CSC)
5. Jan Ullrich (Bianchi)
Spoiler: Iban Mayo (Euskaltel)

STEPHEN: I think Basso might be able to crash the party if Fassa ever decides on a heirarchy. Or maybe we'll have the first multiple-American podium, with either Leipheimer or Hamilton making the top three. But those are just sleeper picks. The only guy who has the will to hang with Armstrong is Botero, and he doesn't have the legs. I do think we're looking at multiple top ten finishers for both ONCE and Telekom. So, will they act as one giant super-team in order to beat Lance?

That's the scuttlebutt, but who do they support? Beloki? Botero?
Vinokourov? Someone on (gasp) another team? Do you think a Spanish team and a German team get together to propel an Italian to victory?
Not likely. I think it's just talk. The top teams won't from some
giant anti-Armstrong alliance for two reasons
1) they can't agree on the #1 contender with Ullrich still out of
shape
2) it would only be more humiliating when Lance wins anyway

They have done everything to keep him from breaking away in the last two races, and he's beaten the snot out of them then. why should 2003 be any different?

JASON: I seriously doubt there would be a multi-team coup to attack Lance. You can find them working together on a single day, but that's an impulsive and opportunist thing. Even if the stud climbers of different teams worked together, Lance has Heras, Rubiera, Beltran, Ekimov, and Hincapie backing him up. One rider could bust himself on a given day and put time on Lance, but what will his legs be like the next day?

Again, it's a war of attrition. After they go through the Alps,
they've got the Pyrenees. What strength remains in the third week? Lance always shows up strong for the final time trial. He plans his race to ride hard that day, regardless of the time gap. When all the others are weary and demoralized, he's ready for the final test because that's his gameplan. By that time, the rest are praying for an end to the torture.

STEPHEN: And that’s the secret. You can beat Lance on one stage. But he’s going to get up and kick the crap out of you the next day. I’ve never seen anything like it, not even Indurain. Armstrong can practically kill himself on l’Alpe d’Huez and then ride a seemingly suicidal pace the very next day. No one else can. He’s stronger mentally and physically than any other rider in the Tour. The real question is not: will Lance win? It is: by how much?
GREEN
STEPHEN: The sprinter’s jersey is one of the biggest contests of the Tour. Zabel is the old master, McEwen is the lone wolf, O’Grady is the perennial bridesmaid, and Cooke is the wild card. And don't forget Friere. McEwen will find it difficult to stalk Zabel as he will be the rider the sprinters mark. I think his inferior team costs him this time. Zabel doesn’t go down without a fight, but I think it’s finally O’Grady’s turn.
1. O’Grady
2. Zabel
3. Friere
Spolier: Petacchi

JASON: Unlike the race for the polka dot jersey, this one has a clear cut list of favorites and there isn’t enough room in the peloton for all these heavy hitters. This should be very tight, and every stage, save the mountain stages and time trials, will be big. I think Zabel will take it back.

1. Erik Zabel (Telekom)
2. Baden Cooke (FDJeux)
3. Stuart O’Grady (Credit Agricole)
Spoiler: Alessandro Petacchi (Fassa Bortolo)

STEPHEN: It'll come down to the last day again. But it will also come down to someone who can make it through the mountains. And that's what hurts McEwen. Honestly, I can't believe he won the Green the last time. Zabel's got more support than anybody, but he has lost a step. If teams weren't a factor, I'd take Friere, but they are. I don't see a reason to abandon my O'Grady pick. But, God. Is this race loaded with sprinters or what?

JASON: Excellent point about abandoning. The field is loaded, but at least a third will lose because of attrition. But really, the TdF is a war of attrition. I'm going to change my pick. I rate Petacchi as the #2. I rate Baden Cooke as the potential spoiler.
OK, now some picks

POLKA DOTS
STEPHEN: Well, without Jalabert, the door is wide open. Heras would win the thing if he tried, but he’ll conserve energy to help Armstrong win. Botero and Beloki should figure prominently, but so should some of the mountain attackers like Ullrich and Simoni. And of course Virenque and Moreau, because this is the only way the French are winning a jersey. I’ll go with:
1. Virenque
2. Armstrong
3. Beloki
Spoiler: Botchorov

JASON: The King of the Mountains race is absolutely wide open. Botero and Virenque are obvious favorites, but an opportunist who attacks on the first big mountain stage may rack up enough points on the first couple climbs to convince himself to aim for the dots.
Prediction:
1. Santiago Botero (Telekom)
2. Richard Virenque (Quick Step)
3. Lance Armstrong (USPS)
Spoiler: Angel Casero (Bianchi)

STEPHEN: So you advocate the Mario Aerts strategy. Honestly, it's about attacking on the last mountain stage when Lance already has the race wrapped up and will let you go. Which precludes a guy like Botero
winning it that way, because Lance would chase him down. He won't
chase down Virenque.

JASON: As I said, Botero did exactly that last year. The Aerts strategy isn't bad. A rider needs the points early to be in position for the big day late in the race.

STEPHEN: Or be so far back in the GC that Armstrong won’t bother to reel you in if you attack Ventoux.

VINI CALDIROLA (Garzelli)
STEPHEN: Another Italian team which lives for the Giro. Garzelli lost out on that one, and this team shouldn’t be much of a factor in anything except for the few days when Vainsteins tried to win a stage. They don’t matter.

JASON: Essentially, Garzelli needs a better team. He’s got great talent and is definitely among the elite riders in the big Tours, but this team isn’t good enough to make the difference for him in the TdF. Put him on Banesto, CSC, or even Kelme and it’s a whole different story.

STEPHEN: Hey, maybe Kelme could rebirth the two-headed monster. Once Sevilla chokes like usual, Garzelli could pick up the slack. He could make a mid-level team great.
SAECO (Simoni)
STEPHEN: So Simoni likes cocaine, what’s the big deal? It only cost his team, a spot in the Tour last year, and almost got him kicked out of cycling altogether. Well, he won the Giro this year and he’s got one hell of a team behind him. Forget a shot at the podium, he’s looking to beat Lance.

JASON: Simoni says he’s gunning for Lance. Fine. Simoni needs a little humbling. He’ll be among the elite contenders to win it all, so let’s hope we get to see a good fight. And Saeco might have a pretty good team this time. Stefano Zanini and Ivan Quaranta (pending) are both capable of winning the sprint finish.

STEPHEN: The great thing about Saeco is that we simply don't know anything about them. We know they do well in the Giro, but they've never been in the Tour de France, and it remains to be seen whether they'll act like typical Italians and blow off the Tour. I think Simoni wants to beat Lance, but we're talking about a guy who specializes in ripping out your heart and stomping on it repeatedly. And I'm not sure Simoni is tough enough to withstand the first blow from Armstrong. Really, only Botero has taken a direct spirit-crushing blow from Armstrong and seemed to bounce back. But Botero's just not good enough to beat him.

JASON: A few years ago Saeco was a TdF regular--back when Cipollini was on Saeco and the TdF committee was not on a personal vendetta against Cipollini. But this particular team doesn't have much TdF experience. That said, Simoni is the real deal. He's been talking the talk for two months. Now it's time to walk the walk. Oh, by the way, Quaranta's not racing, so they lose a great threat for the sprint finish.

STEPHEN: Yawn. Maybe if Cipollini actually tried to, I don’t know, finish the fricking race he wouldn’t find himself despised by the organizers. Rarely do I side with TdF committee, but I’m like the only cycling fan who has no problem with Cipo not being in the Tour.
GEROLSTEINER (Rebellin)
STEPHEN: They think Totschnig can contend for the podium. He’s done well in the Giro and he attacks the mountains, so he’s got a shot. I wouldn’t put money on the guy, but he does have a chance. Rebellin always shows up in the World Cup standings, so he could be a factor on the sprints. It’s their first Tour, but they have the makeup of an older team.

JASON: Not a great team, but with Udo Boltz, Georg Totschnig, and Davide Rebellin, they’ll be in the mix. A stage win makes their Tour a success, but they’re not a bunch of chumps who don’t belong.

STEPHEN: Exactly. It's like someone has to ride next to CSC and Cofidis. We don't expect them to rock anyone's world, but they deserve the bid. They have good riders and I'd rather see them get in than some of the driftwood that passes by.

BIANCHI (Ullrich)
STEPHEN: Ullrich didn’t ride in 2002, but Armstrong’s biggest rival returns for this year’s race. He’s already said he cannot win, but he’s always dangerous when he gets on the bike. He’s not riding for the fun of it. Casero’s also a threat, winning the Vuelta in 2001. Team Coast, their previous incarnation, got robbed of a bid last year, so it’s nice to see them in this year.

JASON: This team was formed last month so that Ullrich could get a paycheck (Team Coast couldn’t pay their riders) and get into the Tour. It’s good to have him in it, but he’s definitely not in great form. He and Casero are both dangerous and capable of the top 5. Ullrich may be out of condition, but that’s how talented he is.

STEPHEN: It's tough to throw together a team in a month, even one centered on guys as talented as Ullrich and Casero. And Ullrich is not a threat to beat the machine that is Lance. Maybe if he was in shape.

CREDIT AGRICOLE (Bessy)
STEPHEN: No team was a bigger flop in 2002 than C.A. What made that so disappointing was that 2001 was so awesome. The French are pinning their hopes to Moreau, who will inevitably let them down, but he does have the potential to win the King of the Mountains. But let’s face it, it’s all about O’Grady. He’s the guy who deserved to unseat Zabel, but he fell just short two years in a row. This is probably his best chance, and the team will ride for the green. Nothing else matters, except trying to screw up Lance.

JASON: If only that were Bernard Hinault, not Sebastien Hinault on their roster. The former was the last Frenchman to win the yellow jersey. Christophe Moreau is presumed to be the best hope now. But he’s a sissy. However, Stuart O’Grady is good enough to threaten for stage wins and the green jersey, and Jens Voigt is good enough to put him in good position to do that.

STEPHEN: Can you believe Laurent Fignon actually won the Tour de France? I really like C.A. but they weren't as good as they showed in 2001, nor as bad as in 2002. The truth lies somewhere in between, but I don't know exactly where that is. I'm saying they are average, yet I believe they can win two jerseys: King of the Mountains and points.

JASON: Good assessment.

STEPHEN: Aw, now I’m blushing.

EUSKATEL (Laiseka)
STEPHEN: Extebarria should bounce back and at least be competitive. Mayo was the only rider to hang with Lance in the Dauphine Libere. I know you have a soft spot for the Basques, so I’ll let you take it way.

JASON: My boys in orange are at their third consecutive TdF, boasting an entire one stage win. Exclusively Basque climbers, they paint themselves into a corner tactically. They may steal a stage win in the mountains, but why not try for the polka dot jersey for once? The good news is that Iban Mayo has developed very well and is a legit contender or the top10.

STEPHEN: Euskatel gets slaughtered in the early stages, when even crappy French teams can hang. It's like they get bored with flat straightaways. They can climb, but that don't have a heavy hitter like Beloki. They probably have the strongest roster of climbers top to bottom, but the top ain't that great. Maybe Mayo, but I still need convincing. We each have our soft spots, mine is for Rabobank, yours is Euskatel.

JASON: It must be something to do with the color orange. Last year they didn't have a pulse. Hey, I don't mind if they are a one trick pony, but at least impress me with the trick!

BRIOCHES LE BOLANGERE (Chavanel)
STEPHEN: Bonjour has no business being here, no matter hwat they call their team now. Rous isn’t that bad, but he’s getting old. Simon once finished in the top ten, one of the all-time fluky performances. They suck out loud.

JASON: The TdF committee wanted French teams and riders well represented. This is the length they went to for that end. When Big Mat got demoted to division two for sucking so bad, the Tour organizers had to find another team to represent the benthic levels. This is a bad team. I’ll stop wasting time on them.

STEPHEN: Agreed. When will the Tour follow suit?

AG2R (Botcharov)
STEPHEN: Botchorov conquered Ventoux. That’s pretty damn impressive, so even though this is a second level team, I think they are slightly above FDJ, Brioches, and Delatour. Kispiruu is a good sprinter, Botchorov can climb, and Brochard is pretty solid. I think they’ve got a decent team. They won’t win anything, but they aren’t a complete joke.

JASON: For years they’ve relied on Jaan Kispiruu to be a top sprinter so that people will remember they are in the Tour. Botcharov, Brochard, and Chaurreau–maybe one might find his way into the top 25, but they’re not threats. But the good news is AG2r might actually have riders within camera range when the race hits the mountains. That’s an improvement.

STEPHEN: OK, the more I think about it, the more I think that was just the mushrooms talking. AG2R ain't nearly as good as FDJ. They are a bad team with one good sprinter (Kispiruu), and he has little chance of
winning the Green.

KELME (Gutierrez)
STEPHEN: All right, this is misleading, Kelme should be near the top of this list with Oscar Sevilla leading the charge. He just didn’t finish last year, so he didn’t appear in the final GC standings. Well, it’ll be weird without the two-headed monster of Sevilla and Botero. But Gonzalez sort of pulled this team apart and they had to take sides. Personally, I think they chose the wrong guy. Sevilla just isn’t a great climber or time trialist, and that’s just the kiss of death. Sevilla’s a podium threat, but I think this team is in serious trouble losing two of its top three riders.

JASON: THUD! One of the elite teams in recent years. Sevilla hasn’t been healthy all year & is recovering from surgery. Botero rides for Telekom. They’re left with support personnel. I recommend they send a man to pick up points on the early mountains so they can get a contender in the KoM competition. Thud!

STEPHEN: Thud is also the sound of Sevilla on the last day of any major event. Is there a guy who has choked away more leads currently on the
circuit?

JASON: Beloki had a great thud in the Vuelta two years ago.

STEPHEN: Sevilla choked away the Vuelta to his own teammate on the last day. His own teammate. The last day.

LOTTO (Merckx)
STEPHEN: Due to money problems, two decent teams merged and cut loose their biggest stars. Then again, Aerts is overrated and Virenque is drug abusing nutcase, so no great loss. Merckx has the name, but not
The skills to win the Tour. He’s a good threat to win a stage though.
However, this team is all about McEwen’s quest for a second green jersey. The funny thing is, he won the first one with barely any help from his team, I think the team riding for him would screw up his strategy of stalking Zabel. So the team merely exists to take up space and let McEwen due his thing on his own.

JASON: Yeah, they’d do well to avoid McEwen so that they don’t mess him up. Lotto typically doesn’t amount to much in the Tour–maybe the odd stage win. McEwen gave them something completely foreign to them in TdF
success. He’ll stalk the green jersey; Merckx and Verbrugghe will try to get into breakaways.

STEPHEN: Early warning sign! The Lotto team is already talking about giving McEwen support and how their team strategy will be to support his Green Jersey defense. That's bad. The less Lotto does, the better for McEwen. Just treat him like he rides for no one, he'll be better off.
ALESSIO (Gotti)
STEPHEN: They ride for the Giro and then see what they have left for the Tour. Which, as always, will be not much. The French treat the Italian teams like dirt, so the Italians return the favor by treating the Tour as a training ground for next year’s Giro.

JASON: Yep, they’re sending their B-team because Italian teams don’t take the Tour seriously. They bring a couple of pretty good riders in Caucchioli, Noe, and Baldato. If they win a stage it’ll be because someone got in a breakaway and became an opportunist.

STEPHEN: Here's a good time to bust out a chart. Here is the top ten of the Giro:

1. Gilberto Simoni (Ita) Saeco 89 hours 32min 09sec
2. Stefano Garzelli (Ita) +7min 06sec
3. Yaroslav Popovych (Ukr) +7:11
4. Andrea Noe (Ita) +9:24
5. Georg Totschnig (Aut) +9:42
6. Raimondas Rumsas (Lit) +9:50
7. Dario Frigo (Ita) +10:50
8. Serhiy Honchar (Ukr) +14:14
9. Franco Pellizotti (Ita) +14:26
10. Eddy Mazzoleni (Ita) +19:21

That's six Italians. And only Frigo takes the Tour seriously (ok, maybe Simoni, that remains to be seen). It's striking that one of the
Three Grand Tours, and there's a good chance only one guy will appear
in the top ten of the first two.

Where have you gone, Claudio Chiappucci?


JASON: Specialization. The contenders are willing to plan their years around one of the big Tours. It's possible to be in fine condition to ride well in two or three of them, but if other elite riders are going to avoid the fatigue of the tough schedule to focus on his race, then the other elite contenders are at a huge disadvantage.

FDJ (Vogondy)
STEPHEN: They make the most of their undeserved bid. Everybody attacks like mad, they throw off the better riders plans, and then generally make pests of themselves, maybe even winning a stage. I like that. It’s like they know they shouldn’t be in the Tour, so they might as well ride as aggressively as possible. Robin has an outside shot at a top 15 finish. And there is the Austalian Baden Cooke, who as a real shot at winning the green. He’s got a pretty good team and he can beat anyone in a straight sprint.

JASON: An excellent example of French cycling. Vogondy can hang with the elite climbers on his best days, but their threat for hardware is if the Australians, Brad McGee and Baden Cooke, can steal a sprint finish. You’re right, they make the most of their questionable bid.

STEPHEN: I don't think they are typical of French cycling. If the rest of French cycling was as good as FDJ, they would contend for something. For a midlevel team (which they are not, they are below average), they've got two guys with a real chance at winning green and another guy who could finish top ten. That would be a great Tour for a good team if they pull it off, much less a French B-team.

JASON: I don't mean to suggest that they are excellent. They're not even the best cyclists France has to offer. They are the middle of the curve--that's why they're a good representative of French cycling. And what do they accomplish? Nothing outside of what their Australian sprinters provide. In five Tours they have one stage victory. You might think they don't suck, but really, they do--another reason why they are a good example of French cycling.

JEAN DELATOUR (Goubert)
STEPHEN: One of the French teams that gets an invite for merely being
French. Goubert actually did pretty well last year, as did Brochard, who parlayed it into a better gig with AG2R. Halgand won a stage, and that was nice, he can tell his kids one day. This teams blows, Goubert should be helping someone else win the yellow, but instead he’s riding for himself, supported by a bunch of guys who will be out of the sport in a few years.

JASON: An utterly underwhelming team. When Halgand won an early stage last year and took the early (i.e. before the mountains) King of the
Mountains jersey it was their only hardware for the whole Tour. In fact, that’s how they got a rider in dots the previous year too. So that’s what this team is good for–they get someone to wear the King of the Mountains jersey before the race gets to the mountains. Yippie!

STEPHEN: Not just any rider, it was Halgand both times. So he's worn the dots in two straight Tours. I think he makes it three!

QUICK STEP (Virenque)
STEPHEN: Virenque is an unapologetic scumbag, but he’s French, so the people will line the roads to cheer him on. Vandenbroucke is the guy who probably has the best shot at a top ten finish, but even that is stretching it. Bettini currently leads the World Cup standings, meaning he could contend for the green jersey, but let’s face it, this
team pretty much defines the term peleton. They don’t suck out loud, nor will they win anything except maybe a stage here and there.

JASON: Virenque makes this team of interest in the Tour. He had a bit of a renaissance last year. He’ll step in as the lovable elder statesman of French cycling in the absence of Laurent Jalabert. And maybe he’ll wow the crowd with a mountain top win or a King of the Mountains jersey.

STEPHEN: And he'll win it the same way. By attacking early on big climbs and Armstrong will let him go, knowing he has as much chance of winning the yellow as Erik Dekker.

COFIDIS (Moncoutie)
JASON: If you want to build an overrated team, I suggest you build it around David Millar. He, Cedric Vasseur, and David Moncoutie are all adequate riders, but their not TdF studs. Imagine CSC without Hamilton and Sastre.

STEPHEN: Moncoutie and Lelli both finished top 15 in the last Tour and the chances of either of them repeating that feat aren’t very good. This is David Millar’s team, and it’s his job to actually manage to stay on his bike this year. He has two stage wins all-time to his credit, and the Brits love to overhype their boys, but Millar’s got a legit shot to… nope, couldn’t type it without laughing. He’ll finish in 20th or so. It’ll be his best finish ever by a wide margin.

JASON: Millar’s aim for the GC will end on the second big climb of the Tour, assuming he doesn’t crash in the first week.

STEPHEN: Kivilev's death still haunts this team. I can't imagine them having a good Tour. It's one thing to lose a talented rider, it's another to have him die in a race.

JASON: Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned that. Even though they are a functional team again, it's still not quite right knowing a teammate died in a race just a few months ago.

FASSA BORTOLO (Basso)
STEPHEN: Basso won the white jersey for the best young rider, and it remains to be seen whether he can build on that. 11th overall is tough to top in a field as quality as the Tour de France’s. Frigo is a solid
rider, he’ll be a good support guy once he gets any thoughts of actually winning the race out of his head.

What is most interesting is Aitor Gonzalez. He won the Vuelta last year with a furious rally on the last day, but he did it for Kelme and he was supposed to be riding in support of Sevilla. It’s understandable why his former team might be a little peeved, even with the win. It’s doubtful Gonzalez will ride to support Basso or Frigo, he’s going to go for the win himself. Will his team ride for him?

JASON: Last year we were amazed that an Italian team was taking the Tour seriously, and it looks like Fassa might do it again this year. Aitor Gonzales will be saving his best for the Vuelta in September, but he’s still a threat in the mountains and the time trials. Petacchi won 6 stages in the Giro. Um, maybe he’s a threat to win a sprint finish here?

STEPHEN: Fassa is sort of like a talented FDJ. They are not a heavy hitter, but they do deserve a bid, and they make the most of it by wreaking havok, only they do it with riders who are pretty good. Will Gonzalez, Frigo, or Basso win the yellow? No, but they might contend for the podium. Will they win the King of the Mountains? Don't bet on it, but they will contend. Green? Petacchi's got an outside shot, if nothing else, the sprints he wins will be points he costs other contenders. He's a classic spoiler. So is the rest of the team. Heck, they might be a spoiler in the team standings, particularly the time trial. It's an interesting team which merits watching just to see whose Tour they ruin.

CSC (Sastre)
STEPHEN: This is Tyler Hamilton’s team now. He’s never really lived up to his earlier promise, and he’s now been passed by Leipheimer as the Next Great American Cyclist. Hamilton won Liege, but that means diddly squat. Frankly, I don’t rate this team at all.

JASON: Hamilton swears he’s in the best shape of his life and ready-though he admits no one is going to beat Lance. Hamilton tailored his training to mimic Armstrong’s. The man has finished second at the Giro, so he’s got the ability to rise up in the big tour. I do rate him and this team highly.

CSC is a good team: Sastre rides with the elite climbers; Sorensen, Piil, Luttenberger, Nick Jalobert are all going to find themselves in breakaways on the flat stages.

STEPHEN: Perhaps I should restate that. They don't suck. They won't contend for anything, nor will they embarrass themselves. They'll win a stage or two, and maybe send Hamilton to the top ten. They are solid and boring as hell. They pretty much define the peleton.


RABOBANK (Leipheimer)
STEPHEN: The sprinters. I really like Rabobank, and they are really trying to change their traditional image as a bunch of sprinters. Okay, they still have Dekker (I have Stage 10 in the annual When Does Dekker Drop Out? pool), but they now added Oscar Friere, who probably was a good team away from winning the green. OK, he crashed out, but he’s got to feel good about having a bunch of Dutch speed freaks around him.
On top of that, Rabobank seems intent on actually trying to win the GC. Leipheimer is now the best American rider not named Lance Armstrong and Michael Boogerd is a consistent top 20 guy. He makes a nice lieutenant for Leipheimer. I don’t think this team is strong enough to take the yellow, but I think they’ll be in the mix as well as for the Green. Think Telekom Light.


JASON: Dekker’s not in the starting team, but they do bring Marc Wauters and Robbie Hunter to aim for sprint wins. Then there is former world champion Oscar Friere–probably their best chance for a stage win.

STEPHEN: No Dekker? That's not right! I'll miss his annual descent down the standings as the race hits the mountains. For the record, here are his finishes in order: 101, 70, 74, 81, DNF, 107, 51, 91, 136. That's remarkable consistency.

JASON: Once they get to the mountains, it’ll be Boogerd & Leipheimer. They’ve both proven they can hang with the lead pack, but neither has ever mounted an attack. Still, Leipheimer is a resilient rider and could also contend for the top 10. Last year Rabobank was trying to decide whether to ride for Leipheimer or Boogerd. Hopefully, they know who their man is now.

STEPHEN: And it's Leipheimer. Boogerd had his time, and he blew it. He never built on that 5th in 1998. He managed to finish 10th in 2001, but this is a guy who's been in 7 Tours and has won 2 stages. He ain't winning anything.
BANESTO (Mancebo)
STEPHEN: Obviously, they are a top team, but I don’t think anyone outside of the team car thinks Mancebo has a snowball’s chance in hell of winning the race. They are hyping up Mercado as a possibility, but I don’t see it. When Unai Osa arguably had the best Tour of any member of the team, you have problems.

JASON: They always use the Tour as a chance to train for the Vuelta (which they dominate!) and get some camera time for their sponsors. Mancebo is a legit threat for a mountain stage win and a top 10 finish.

STEPHEN: Sounds about right. It's a shame that a team which dominates the Vuelta can't at least pretend to contend for the Tour.
TELEKOM (Botero)
STEPHEN: Give them points for creativity. Ullrich leaves them high and dry, so instead of crying about the injustice of the whole affair, they steal Botero from Kelme. And Botero might have a better chance of winning than Ullrich this year. Salvodelli won the Giro last year, and
Vinokourov won the Tour de Suisse this year. So Botero’s place as a team leader isn’t even secure from his lieutenants. Then again, Telekom lives to win Zabel the green jersey. After six consecutive
points titles, he finally lost one, giving Telekom a dual focus:
stopping Lance and winning the green. If push comes to shove, I’m willing to bet Telekom plays for Zabel, not Botero, Vino, or Salvodelli. Which is a shame. Botero broke Lance’s air of invulnerability last year, actually taking a time trial from Armstrong.

If anybody has a shot, Botero’s got to be the guy. Unless it’s
Vino.

JASON: This is the best Telekom team since 1997 (Ullrick, Riis, Zabel). They’ve done a masterful job redefining their team post-Ullrich. Zabel’s green jersey has got to be their top priority, but second to that, Botero will be aiming for stage wins. Nardello is such a tough rider. He fell off the map last year, so I’m curious to see how he bounces back. But, he’ll have teammates in the mountains (unlike on his old Mapei team), so that makes a huge difference. Vinokourov is the poster-boy for blue collar riders. He’ll lead Zabel out on sprints and ride with the elite in the mountains.

Paolo Savodelli might miss the Tour because of a stomach virus, but if
he’s in, he’s another threat to win a mountain stage. Mario Aerts is a great addition too–FYI he was second in the King of the Mountains last year. After falling behind the elite teams, Telekom is back. This team could walk away with more hardware than any other.

STEPHEN: Aerts scored a perfect 110 points on the Aimes-Cluses ride. Whoopee. He had 68 for the rest of the race. Hats off to Aerts, but he
Attacked on the day when every big gun had already wasted themselves battling for the Yellow, and he still didn't come within 100 points of the polka dots. I'm supposed to be impressed by a one-day breakway that the leaders let happen because Aerts was so far out contention that it wasn't worth the effort to reel him in?

JASON: That formula isn't bad. By the way, last year Botero lost a good 8-10 minutes on the first climb last year. That's why they let him go in a later mountain stage. He was out of contention, but then he made up huge time because he was so far out. He landed in 4th overall after flying under the radar. I think you're overrating Botero. He's great on any given day in the mountains, but he lacks stamina. The elite will drop him when they have three consecutive mountain stages.

STEPHEN: I'm picking on Aerts because you bring him up. He's a good rider, but nothing special. I'm not disagreeing that Telekom is indeed loadad. Zabel could win the green, Vino could win polka dots, Botero could win polka dots or the yellow. That's one hell of a team.

JASON: Am I overrating Aerts? I'm not predicting he'll win anything, I'm just saying he's one more good climber to help out. By the way, Savodelli is out; they replaced him with Guerini. An older rider, but if you need a last minute substitute, a former winner at l'Alpe d'Huez is a good choice.

STEPHEN: And I don’t believe I’m overrating Botero. He beat Armstrong in a time trial. No one else in the field can say that. He’s legit contender. I don’t think he’ll win, I honestly have more faith in Vino, but I think Botero’s got the will. He just doesn’t have the legs.
LAMPRE (Rumsas)
STEPHEN: Lost in all of the hoopla of Cipo not making the Tour is that the organizers decided not to invite a freaking podium finisher in the last Tour. Rumsas isn’t a huge name rider, but his third place finish was one of the best stories of last year’s race. He doesn’t deserve a chance to defend his podium spot? Besides, Cassagrande was thrown out of the Giro for starting a fistfight. You can’t buy that kind of entertainment.

JASON: I’ve got no sympathy for Lampre or Raimondas Rumsas missing the Tour de France. Rumsas was a great story last year–a newcomer from a team with little TdF success fighting his way to the podium. Heck, he even attacked Beloki twice on the Champs Elysees. Later that day his wife was caught smuggling performance-enhancing drugs into the country. In the midst of a fine Giro 2003, he had a positive dope test. Think about the history of doping at the TdF–would you invite this punk? I wouldn’t invite another scandal to the 100th anniversary edition of the Tour. Drop Lampre and make room for Saeco and Vini-Caldirola.

Stephen: Come on! They let Virenque in. If they were leaving out everybody who failed a drug test, well, it would pretty much be Lance versus some Estonian we'd never heard of. I don't have sympathy for them, but Lampre is boatloads of fun: fistfights, drug scandals, smuggling, in-fighting... it's like a little episode of Melrose Place.

JASON: Virenque cheated & paid the price. He was expelled from the Tour, suspended from racing, taken to court, and his reputation was ruined. He did his time and came back. You're lobbying for a known Cheat to get into the race and possibly take a podium slot from a rider who would earn it. It's moot—his second sample was positive for EPO. The UCI just suspended him. See ya!

STEPHEN: You’re just no fun. We need corruption and cronyism or else it wouldn’t be the Tour. Lampre is such a wonderfully corrupt team that it’s like they are a traveling parody of the sport. Then again, I’d rather have them in than the loads of second tier French teams that let in.

ONCE (Beloki)
After saying lots of nice things about the Posties, ONCE is still the deepest team. Beloki’s not exactly world’s behind Lance, and Azevedo finished sixth last year. They lose Galdeano to a collarbone injury, and as awesome as he was last year, he is no Beloki. They are heavy favorites to win the team competition again, but I just don’t see them winning any individual awards, except for a nice podium finish for Beloki.

JASON: They’re always among the best teams, and there is no reason to think the team will not contend for the best team time. There’s no reason to think Beloki will not contend for the podium. There is also no reason to think Beloki will be able to overtake Lance Armstrong. This may be his best chance to finally beat Ullrich.

STEPHEN: It's not like he was as far behind Ullrich as Ullrich was to
Armstrong. Give the guy some credit. He has a chance to win even if Ullrich wasn't doing his best Marlon Brando impersonation.

JASON: I give him credit for being one of the last guys Lance drops. That's impressive. But he's cracked repeatedly at the moment of truth. He rarely shows the guts to attack, but he is willing to attack when Lance is at the team car (last year).

STEPHEN: And that was the cowardly move among all cowardly moves. It was like Beloki admitted that he had no chance to beat Armstrong straight up. His spirit is absolutely crushed by the guy.


Welcome to the Tour de Lance page.

Um, Jason and I have an unhealthy obsession with the world's greatest endurance race. I'm willing to bet this is is the most comprehensive Tour de France preieve on the net. Seriously.

We've been debating the Tour over email for about a week. i've edited that conversation and so I present to you the BartCopSports Tour de France preview.

US POSTAL SERVICE (Armstrong)
STEPHEN: OK, Lance is nearly unbeatable. Ullrich has already said he has no chance and teams are basing their entire strategy based on stopping Lance. Good luck.

JASON: Lance is the stud of studs at the Tour. Everyone else is either fighting for second or hoping to be an opportunist should some calamity
occur. Really, a bad crash or an illness present a greater threat to Lance than any opponent.

STEPHEN: We’ve been on this bandwagon for a while, but the Posties just do not get enough credit for being as awesome as they are. Jesus, they’ve got Heras, Pena, and Rubiera. Those are some serious
climbers, and if this team was built around Heras, he’d have a good shot at winning the whole thing. At times, he’s looked like the only guy capable of hanging with Lance on the biggest climbs. I’d have to put Lance’s odds of repeating at about 1 to 1.

JASON: The team is rock solid. Heras and Rubiera have shown how good they are in carrying Lance into the mountains. The team added Manuel Beltran, who’s also a great climber. This is a wealth of climbers–USPS can afford to rest Heras on the early climbs, allowing him to pace Lance when he attacks on the stage-ending climbs. Oh, and they’ve got George Hincapie and Viatcheslav Ekimov on the squad too–they’ve paced the yellow jersey to victory a few times.

STEPHEN: It's really amazing how long guys like Hincapie and Ekimov have been willing to stick around. Being a Postie has got to suck sometimes. No matter what you do, you're just there to support Lance. It's no longer a team, it's just the Lance Armstrong Riders. They are the Pips to his Gladys Knight or the News to his Huey Lewis.

JASON: The team exists to have Lance win the Tour. They throw a bone to the others--they ride the Vuelta for Heras and they ride Paris-Roubaix for Hincapie. But we know what the bottom line is. Is there discontent? The only discontent is when a rider like Floyd Landis or Christain Vandevelde gets left off the team--they're fighting for the chance to be Lance's domestique.


STEPHEN: And any time there is discontent, they go become a stud in their own right.

JASON: Hamilton & Leipheimer left for other teams, but it's understandable--they have careers of their own and are good enough to be team leaders. But USPS has no morale problem--winning helps. Heck, Ekimov came out of retirement a year ago to ride for Lance! When Beltran joined the team he said it was a breath of fresh air to know the team had a clear leader and a clear mission. No fighting, just do it.
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