The 100st anniversary edition of the Tour de France begins Saturday, July 5th. Three weeks and 2000 miles later it will end in Paris.
Allow me to break with tradition and say something good about the TdF organizing committee. They did a good job designing the course. They mixed in tradition-like starting in Paris like in the original Tour-followed the traditional route, and scheduled stops at several mainstays. But to make room for all that, the race will hit the mountains a couple days early.
Week one: You can't win the TdF in the first week, but you can certainly lose it. A crash and a dismal team time trial can set a rider far behind the pack. During this week the big guns will ride smart-near the front, but apart from the action. They'll let the sprinters fight for stage wins and points; they'll let contenders go on long breakaways.
And the breakaways are a beautiful thing. A mediocre rider will consider his whole year a success if he busts his rump a few hours one day, speeding away in a pack of 10 riders. The breakaway will work together to hold off the peloton, but as they approach the finish line, they'll turn on each other, play mental games, and strike at the opportune moment to steal the stage win. And just maybe that mediocre rider will have the highlight of his career by snagging the leader's yellow jersey for a day or two.
Stage 4-the first red letter day. A 69km team time trial. Each 9 member team races as a unit. The start is staggered so each team is alone against the clock. The top 5 riders of each team all get the same time, so the contenders have to rely on the team heavily. ONCE & USPS will excel, Saeco & Telekom will suffer. This is when the race starts to take shape, it provides the first real separation among the contenders.
The rest of the week features more stages on the flats & rolling hills. Fodder for the opportunists and battleground for the green jersey contenders.
Week two: Abandon every hope, all ye who enter. The gloves will be off when the race hits the first mountain stage on July 12. Stage 7 is a mammoth 226 km with 5 climbs. Lance Armstrong has made a living by attacking the field on the first day in the mountains. That's his m.o., and he'll do it again. When that torture is over, the next day, the riders will climb l'Alpe d'Huez, probably the most famous climb in the TdF. The stage features 4 climbs. The second is 12km at a 6.8% grade (6.8m rise in altitude per 100m). The third is 18 km at 6.7%. The final ascent is a grueling 14km at 8% grade. By this time the field will be blown apart. Yet, the following day is another mountain stage. By this point the contenders may call off the dogs to recover. So, a lesser climber may steal the day with a breakaway . All the while, climbers will be accumulating points in the King of the Mountains competition. The mountains will also weed out the guys who can't hack it. Lots of the sprinters & youngsters will throw in the towel.
There is a rest day in week two and also a couple downhill stages to let the riders catch their breath before Stage12, the first individual time trial. The true contenders will rise up in the race of truth-47km alone, against the clock. At this time all the good climbers who can't ride a time trial will fade away, and there will be no more than 5 contenders remaining with a legit shot.
Week 3: Immediately following the time trial, the riders return to the mountains-four days in the Pyrenees. Even the strong climbers from the previous week will be struggling. This is when the leader's team will be crucial to protecting him from attacks. Of course, the leaders will be content to let some climbers-the ones far behind in the standings-spend 5 hours pedaling alone ahead of the field in an effort to win the stage. And the Pyrenees are a bit different than the Alps. It'll be warmer, and the climbs are steeper. The final climb into Bayonne is 9km at a 9.2% grade. In these 4 stages three themes will dominate: 1) the strategy of the leader to protect his advantage (does not apply to Claudio Chipucchi); 2) attrition-even the best athletes in the world can't hack it; 3) maneuvering for podium position-guys in 12th will try to crack the top 10, etc. OK, four themes, as the King of the Mountains competition will be decided in these days. Note: the fans in southern France love to paint porn on the road, so don't be alarmed when you see it from the aerial photographs.
Those who survive the mountains have two days on the flat roads (we'll get to see which sprinters survived) before the final test. Stage 19 is the second individual time trial. If there is any unfinished business in the overall standings, this is where it will be settled. By this point the riders are exhausted, but the best of the best find the strength. The following day they'll ride onto the Champs Elysees for the finish. Typically the race is already decided by then. Most of the ride is at an easy (for them) pace with some fanfare & horseplay. However, the last two green jerseys have been decided on the final stage, and in this stacked field it may happen again. In any event, there will be a mad dash to be the first man to the finish.
Allow me to break with tradition and say something good about the TdF organizing committee. They did a good job designing the course. They mixed in tradition-like starting in Paris like in the original Tour-followed the traditional route, and scheduled stops at several mainstays. But to make room for all that, the race will hit the mountains a couple days early.
Week one: You can't win the TdF in the first week, but you can certainly lose it. A crash and a dismal team time trial can set a rider far behind the pack. During this week the big guns will ride smart-near the front, but apart from the action. They'll let the sprinters fight for stage wins and points; they'll let contenders go on long breakaways.
And the breakaways are a beautiful thing. A mediocre rider will consider his whole year a success if he busts his rump a few hours one day, speeding away in a pack of 10 riders. The breakaway will work together to hold off the peloton, but as they approach the finish line, they'll turn on each other, play mental games, and strike at the opportune moment to steal the stage win. And just maybe that mediocre rider will have the highlight of his career by snagging the leader's yellow jersey for a day or two.
Stage 4-the first red letter day. A 69km team time trial. Each 9 member team races as a unit. The start is staggered so each team is alone against the clock. The top 5 riders of each team all get the same time, so the contenders have to rely on the team heavily. ONCE & USPS will excel, Saeco & Telekom will suffer. This is when the race starts to take shape, it provides the first real separation among the contenders.
The rest of the week features more stages on the flats & rolling hills. Fodder for the opportunists and battleground for the green jersey contenders.
Week two: Abandon every hope, all ye who enter. The gloves will be off when the race hits the first mountain stage on July 12. Stage 7 is a mammoth 226 km with 5 climbs. Lance Armstrong has made a living by attacking the field on the first day in the mountains. That's his m.o., and he'll do it again. When that torture is over, the next day, the riders will climb l'Alpe d'Huez, probably the most famous climb in the TdF. The stage features 4 climbs. The second is 12km at a 6.8% grade (6.8m rise in altitude per 100m). The third is 18 km at 6.7%. The final ascent is a grueling 14km at 8% grade. By this time the field will be blown apart. Yet, the following day is another mountain stage. By this point the contenders may call off the dogs to recover. So, a lesser climber may steal the day with a breakaway . All the while, climbers will be accumulating points in the King of the Mountains competition. The mountains will also weed out the guys who can't hack it. Lots of the sprinters & youngsters will throw in the towel.
There is a rest day in week two and also a couple downhill stages to let the riders catch their breath before Stage12, the first individual time trial. The true contenders will rise up in the race of truth-47km alone, against the clock. At this time all the good climbers who can't ride a time trial will fade away, and there will be no more than 5 contenders remaining with a legit shot.
Week 3: Immediately following the time trial, the riders return to the mountains-four days in the Pyrenees. Even the strong climbers from the previous week will be struggling. This is when the leader's team will be crucial to protecting him from attacks. Of course, the leaders will be content to let some climbers-the ones far behind in the standings-spend 5 hours pedaling alone ahead of the field in an effort to win the stage. And the Pyrenees are a bit different than the Alps. It'll be warmer, and the climbs are steeper. The final climb into Bayonne is 9km at a 9.2% grade. In these 4 stages three themes will dominate: 1) the strategy of the leader to protect his advantage (does not apply to Claudio Chipucchi); 2) attrition-even the best athletes in the world can't hack it; 3) maneuvering for podium position-guys in 12th will try to crack the top 10, etc. OK, four themes, as the King of the Mountains competition will be decided in these days. Note: the fans in southern France love to paint porn on the road, so don't be alarmed when you see it from the aerial photographs.
Those who survive the mountains have two days on the flat roads (we'll get to see which sprinters survived) before the final test. Stage 19 is the second individual time trial. If there is any unfinished business in the overall standings, this is where it will be settled. By this point the riders are exhausted, but the best of the best find the strength. The following day they'll ride onto the Champs Elysees for the finish. Typically the race is already decided by then. Most of the ride is at an easy (for them) pace with some fanfare & horseplay. However, the last two green jerseys have been decided on the final stage, and in this stacked field it may happen again. In any event, there will be a mad dash to be the first man to the finish.
posted by uberschuck at 12:17 PM
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