YELLOW
STEPHEN: Armstrong is going to win unless he crashes. I’m sorry, he’s just that good. US Postal is loaded and his top threats all have weaknesses. Simoni is tired from the Giro, Ullrich is still recovering from a year away from the sport, and Botero’s breaking in a new team. Actually, I really like either Vino or Leipheimer to crash the party, but the guy who will push Armstrong the hardest is still Beloki. He just isn’t good enough to beat Lance head to head, though.
1. Armstrong
2. Beloki
3. Vinokourov
4. Simoni
5. Ullrich
Spolier: Leipheimer
JASON: To win it all, a rider has to avoid disaster and ride among the elite in the time trials and mountain climbs. Since 1999 there have only been two stages in which ANY of Lance’s chief competitors beat him by significant time in a time trial or mountain stage. And doing it once just isn’t enough, because Armstrong will attack, and he can torture his competition day after day. Beloki is much better than anyone else out there, and Ullrich is still elite despite his condition. A couple of the big guns (like Simoni, Garzelli, and Ullrich) will be set back by the team time trial. But yes, there will always be an unknown, an upstart to surprise us like Rumsas did last year. And I have no idea who it will be.
1. Lance Armstrong (USPS)
2. Joseba Beloki (ONCE)
3. Gilberto Simoni (Saeco)
4. Tyler Hamilton (CSC)
5. Jan Ullrich (Bianchi)
Spoiler: Iban Mayo (Euskaltel)
STEPHEN: I think Basso might be able to crash the party if Fassa ever decides on a heirarchy. Or maybe we'll have the first multiple-American podium, with either Leipheimer or Hamilton making the top three. But those are just sleeper picks. The only guy who has the will to hang with Armstrong is Botero, and he doesn't have the legs. I do think we're looking at multiple top ten finishers for both ONCE and Telekom. So, will they act as one giant super-team in order to beat Lance?
That's the scuttlebutt, but who do they support? Beloki? Botero?
Vinokourov? Someone on (gasp) another team? Do you think a Spanish team and a German team get together to propel an Italian to victory?
Not likely. I think it's just talk. The top teams won't from some
giant anti-Armstrong alliance for two reasons
1) they can't agree on the #1 contender with Ullrich still out of
shape
2) it would only be more humiliating when Lance wins anyway
They have done everything to keep him from breaking away in the last two races, and he's beaten the snot out of them then. why should 2003 be any different?
JASON: I seriously doubt there would be a multi-team coup to attack Lance. You can find them working together on a single day, but that's an impulsive and opportunist thing. Even if the stud climbers of different teams worked together, Lance has Heras, Rubiera, Beltran, Ekimov, and Hincapie backing him up. One rider could bust himself on a given day and put time on Lance, but what will his legs be like the next day?
Again, it's a war of attrition. After they go through the Alps,
they've got the Pyrenees. What strength remains in the third week? Lance always shows up strong for the final time trial. He plans his race to ride hard that day, regardless of the time gap. When all the others are weary and demoralized, he's ready for the final test because that's his gameplan. By that time, the rest are praying for an end to the torture.
STEPHEN: And that’s the secret. You can beat Lance on one stage. But he’s going to get up and kick the crap out of you the next day. I’ve never seen anything like it, not even Indurain. Armstrong can practically kill himself on l’Alpe d’Huez and then ride a seemingly suicidal pace the very next day. No one else can. He’s stronger mentally and physically than any other rider in the Tour. The real question is not: will Lance win? It is: by how much?
STEPHEN: Armstrong is going to win unless he crashes. I’m sorry, he’s just that good. US Postal is loaded and his top threats all have weaknesses. Simoni is tired from the Giro, Ullrich is still recovering from a year away from the sport, and Botero’s breaking in a new team. Actually, I really like either Vino or Leipheimer to crash the party, but the guy who will push Armstrong the hardest is still Beloki. He just isn’t good enough to beat Lance head to head, though.
1. Armstrong
2. Beloki
3. Vinokourov
4. Simoni
5. Ullrich
Spolier: Leipheimer
JASON: To win it all, a rider has to avoid disaster and ride among the elite in the time trials and mountain climbs. Since 1999 there have only been two stages in which ANY of Lance’s chief competitors beat him by significant time in a time trial or mountain stage. And doing it once just isn’t enough, because Armstrong will attack, and he can torture his competition day after day. Beloki is much better than anyone else out there, and Ullrich is still elite despite his condition. A couple of the big guns (like Simoni, Garzelli, and Ullrich) will be set back by the team time trial. But yes, there will always be an unknown, an upstart to surprise us like Rumsas did last year. And I have no idea who it will be.
1. Lance Armstrong (USPS)
2. Joseba Beloki (ONCE)
3. Gilberto Simoni (Saeco)
4. Tyler Hamilton (CSC)
5. Jan Ullrich (Bianchi)
Spoiler: Iban Mayo (Euskaltel)
STEPHEN: I think Basso might be able to crash the party if Fassa ever decides on a heirarchy. Or maybe we'll have the first multiple-American podium, with either Leipheimer or Hamilton making the top three. But those are just sleeper picks. The only guy who has the will to hang with Armstrong is Botero, and he doesn't have the legs. I do think we're looking at multiple top ten finishers for both ONCE and Telekom. So, will they act as one giant super-team in order to beat Lance?
That's the scuttlebutt, but who do they support? Beloki? Botero?
Vinokourov? Someone on (gasp) another team? Do you think a Spanish team and a German team get together to propel an Italian to victory?
Not likely. I think it's just talk. The top teams won't from some
giant anti-Armstrong alliance for two reasons
1) they can't agree on the #1 contender with Ullrich still out of
shape
2) it would only be more humiliating when Lance wins anyway
They have done everything to keep him from breaking away in the last two races, and he's beaten the snot out of them then. why should 2003 be any different?
JASON: I seriously doubt there would be a multi-team coup to attack Lance. You can find them working together on a single day, but that's an impulsive and opportunist thing. Even if the stud climbers of different teams worked together, Lance has Heras, Rubiera, Beltran, Ekimov, and Hincapie backing him up. One rider could bust himself on a given day and put time on Lance, but what will his legs be like the next day?
Again, it's a war of attrition. After they go through the Alps,
they've got the Pyrenees. What strength remains in the third week? Lance always shows up strong for the final time trial. He plans his race to ride hard that day, regardless of the time gap. When all the others are weary and demoralized, he's ready for the final test because that's his gameplan. By that time, the rest are praying for an end to the torture.
STEPHEN: And that’s the secret. You can beat Lance on one stage. But he’s going to get up and kick the crap out of you the next day. I’ve never seen anything like it, not even Indurain. Armstrong can practically kill himself on l’Alpe d’Huez and then ride a seemingly suicidal pace the very next day. No one else can. He’s stronger mentally and physically than any other rider in the Tour. The real question is not: will Lance win? It is: by how much?
posted by Poseur at 2:28 PM
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