Ventoux

Although the race up Ventoux was fun to watch, I got the feeling that the Tour organizers outsmarted themselves by putting it on the penultimate day after a back-end-loaded final week of mountain stages. Those guys were worn out, and they were all playing defense, except for Frank Schleck, who was probably the most worn out of the top 7. Still, the race was tense even if it didn't produce huge time gaps (well, unless you are named Evans, Sastre, or Menchov).

With Garate winning the stage, Rabobank finally has something good to take from the Tour. Otherwise, they might have found themselves in the Abandon category of my team evaluation.

Tomorrow the green jersey is up for grabs. There are two intermediate sprints that Cavendish ought to try to take if he intends to close the gap on THOR!.

When it's all over I'll name a TdF All-Star team and evaluate the teams. In the meantime, check out Jens Voigt's Halloween costume.

ITT

OK, I'm impressed. I'm more impressed by Contador's win in the time trial than I am by his winning the whole Tour. He beat Fabian Cancellara by 3 seconds. He beat Wiggins and Kloden by almost a minute. He beat Armstrong, the Schlecks, and the other contenders by 1:30+. I figured Contador to be a fair time trialist, not a great one, but today he served up a massive beat down. The margin is enough to push his overall lead beyond the magical 4 minute barrier I've been saying would be needed to feel safe going onto Mt. Ventoux.

The standings after stage 18.
1 Alberto Contador (Astana) at 73:15:39
2 Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank) at 04:11
3 Lance Armstrong (Astana) at 05:25
4 Bradley Wiggins (Garmin - Slipstream) at 05:36
5 Andréas Klöden (Astana) at 05:38
6 Frank Schleck (Saxo Bank) at 05:59
7 Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) at 07:15

The only way Contador doesn't win is if he gets sick, crashes, or fails a drug test. Andy Schleck has a nice advantage for a podium spot, but it's certainly not untouchable. The third podium spot is going to be a massive fight, with 4 guys separated by 34 seconds. The guys on Vs. haven't mentioned that because they are too busy predicting Lance will win every stage and then saying he's riding great when he doesn't win. But, this is really, really a tight race.

Even stage 20 on Friday could be a showdown, as there is a pretty nasty climb just before the finish. I think these guys will be so tired from the last few days that they won't attack. They'll save it for Ventoux on Saturday, where any one (or more) of them can blow up and lose his spot in the rankings.

Two days in the Alps

A couple jerseys were practically decided in stages 16 & 17.

Franco Pellizotti kept attacking the climbs to pick up points. He didn't make it with the lead group to the final climb on either day, but he lasted longer than Egoi Martinez and even when Martinez was hanging around, Pellizotti was faster. It's not a mathematical certainty (Martinez would have to win every remaining climb and have Pellizotti get nothing), so, really, Pellizotti needs to pass his dope tests and get all the way to the finish line in Paris.

THOR! attacked solo in the mountains to pick up 12 intermediate sprint points in stage 17. Cavendish didn't attempt, so he finds himself down 30 points. He needs THOR! to draw goose eggs in order to make up that gap.

Because I've said all along that 4 minutes is the gap needed for the leader to feel safe heading onto Ventoux, I'll say Contador still has some work to do, but after putting time on Armstrong and Wiggins in stage 17, he's a lot closer. I do think the Schleck brothers have pushed him harder than he expected to go, but they just can't drop him. They aren't great time trialists, so they really need to rely on having a ridiculously good day on Ventoux.

Standing after Stage 17
# 1. Alberto Contador Astana 2910km in 72:27:09
# 2. Andy Schleck Team Saxo Bank, at 2:26
# 3. Frank Schleck Team Saxo Bank at 03:25
# 4. Lance Armstrong Astana at 03:55
# 5. Andréas Klöden Astana at 04:44
# 6. Bradley Wiggins Garmin - Slipstream at 04:53
# 7. Vincenzo Nibali Liquigas at 05:09


So, while it looks like Contador vs. the Schlecks for yellow, all the guys from 2-7 are fighting for a podium spot. The time trial will shuffle their positions and time slots to set up the final showdown on Ventoux. Being that Armstrong and Kloden will be protecting Contador's yellow jersey, their tactics for defending or attacking a podium position may be compromised.

Also, Scheleck and Nibali are 1 and 2 in the white jersey competition, so they have a consolation prize to think about too.

Astana built their lead in the team competition up to 16 minutes after stage 17. That gap is probably going to grow. It's a total beat down, and without Levi Leipheimer.

As for the crash of Jens Voigt...I hope that wasn't the last we see of him at the Tour. It won't be as enjoyable without him.

Rest day: An Interview With Bernard Hinault

Press credentials--Bah, humbug. We scored a chat with former Tour de France runner-up Bernard Hinault.

TGT: Thanks for taking the time to visit, Bernard.

BH: Please, call me Mr. Hinault.

TGT: Yesterday was a long-awaited stage. Now that the race has taken form with Contador seizing control, what you think?

BH: Well, it's no surprise to me, of course. I've known all along that Alberto Contador is the strongest man in the race. His performance yesterday merely confirmed what I knew to be the truth.

TGT: It was an impressive display.

BH: Perhaps it seems impressive to those who don't understand cycling, but I assure you, my prediction was really an obvious one for anyone with a depth of knowledge of the sport. People who were predicting otherwise just don't understand.

TGT: I was talking about Contador.

BH: Oh, yes. He's quite a talented rider, a true champion. He's really showing his form by overcoming the sabotage of his own team.

TGT: You are referring to Lance Armstrong?

BH: I thought you'd never ask. There's a certain cosmic justice that this fraudulent, doping phony champion is being humiliated before the world. Just what sort of ego must this man have to think he could return at his age and ride well.

TGT: But he's in second place.

BH: There is no reward for finishing second.

TGT: Actually, it's a couple hundred thousand Euros.

BH: Whatever. The lowlife is only in it for the money.

TGT: Back to your point about sabotage...do you really think Armstrong and team Astana have been trying to sabotage Contador? What evidence do you have.

BH: It's obvious. The way Armstrong took advantage of the strong winds in stage 3 to attack his teammate and overtake him in the standings was just classless. You don't attack your own teammate! It's unprofessional.

TGT: But didn't people say the same about you and Greg LeMond?

BH: I've forgiven LeMond. He was young and unsophisticated. The poor fool just didn't know better.

TGT: No, no, I mean when you attacked LeMond in the 1986 Tour.

BH: I was protecting him.

TGT: Um.

BH: He still hasn't thanked me.

TGT: Back to the topic of this Tour. Do you think Contador will hold on to the yellow jersey all the way to Paris?

BH: Probably. He's definitely the best climber. It's possible Armstrong might loosen the screws holding his bike together the time trial, or maybe throw a water bottle in his spokes to crash him on the Ventoux. Of course, he'd have to be close enough to reach him, and Armstrong has shown he's too weak for that. Aside from that, I see Contador overcoming the long odds of his own team to win the Tour.

TGT: It's very favorable that he'll become a two time Tour winner.

BH: A true champion, one of the finest ever. Perhaps the best in 24 years.

TGT: Who won 24 years ago?

BH: That's it, this interview is over.

It's Contador's Tour to win

That's the headline from stage 15. Contador attacked and no one could match him. Most of the contenders (Schleck, Schleck, Sastre, Evans, Wiggins!) finished ahead of Armstrong, who was 95 seconds back.

The new top 10:
1. Ablerto Contador, Astana
2. Lance Armstrong, Astana, 1.37
3. Bradley Wiggins, Garmin-Slipstream, at 1.46
4. Andreas Kloden, Astana, at 2.17
5. Andy Schleck, Saxo Bank, at 2.26
6. Rinaldo Nocentini, AG2R, at 2.30
7. Vincenzo Nibali, Liquigas, at 2.51
8. Tony Martin, Columbia-HTC, at 3.07
9. Christophe Le Mevel, Francais des Jeux, at 3.09
10. Frank Schleck, Saxo Bank, at 3.25


Armstrong said all that needs to be said about Astana's game plan for the next week. Contador is the strongest; he rides for Contador.

The race isn't over with 2 alpine stages, Ventoux, and a time trial, but no one has been able to stay with Contador, his time trial is pretty good, and his team is the best in the race. The other contenders need Contador to mess up in order to catch him.

Other stuff:

What does Astana do about the other goals besides winning the yellow jersey? Lance and Kloden are both podium contenders. They lead the team competition. Sweeping the podium and winning the team race would be a massive accomplishment.

Brad Wiggins is a huge surprise. Can he do it again and again, or will he pop?

Liquigas is having a realy good tour. Pellizotti is wearing dots. Niboli is a podium (and white jersey) contender. Kreuziger is also a white jersey contender.

Shouldn't Andy Schleck be ahead of Frank Schleck? Speaking of the SaxoBank team, the work Voigt and Cancellara did to set the pace on the slopes of the climb was just phenomenal. Those guys will sleep well tonight.

Nocentini may have lost the yellow jersey, but he did well to keep it over a week, and he rode well today. He's actually still in the top 10, but I expect he'll drop a lot of places now that he's lost his incentive.