They’re not all getting in, but there is no shortage of quality candidates. Three inductees would be a huge class, so it’ll be interesting who gets in with so many worthy players out there. I didn’t even vote for one of the borderline outfielders!

To review, that’s:
- One of the ten best catchers to ever play
- An inner circle Hall of Fame 1st baseman
- The first relief ace
- The greatest curveball ever
- The man who has a surgery named after him
- The best all-around pitcher not enshrined
- The second best reliever of all-time
- The greatest 2nd baseman since Morgan
- The greatest pitcher of the 1980s

Not a bad list. All have a case.

Looking over my ballot, I have a huge class:
Carter
Ryno
Blyleven
John
Kaat
Morris
Sutter
Gossage
Murray

That’s nine votes. You can only vote for ten, but that’s rare. You don’t rank your ballot, but if I did, it would probably go like this:

1 Carter
2 Murray
3 Sutter
4 Blyleven
5 John
6 Kaat
7 Gossage
8 Ryno
9 Morris

Relievers are the trickiest group to rate. There just aren’t any standards developed yet.

W L Sv IP K ERA LgERA AS SvL CyYo
Bruce Sutter 68 71 300 1042 861 2.83 3.85 6 5 1979
Lee Smith 71 92 478 1289 1251 3.03 3.99 7 4 --
Rich Gossage 124 107 310 1809 1502 3.01 3.78 9 3 --

First off, Lee Smith holds the career saves mark because of usage. The modern pattern of the one-inning relief ace didn’t come about until the 1980s, and Smith is the first pitcher to take advantage of that. He was really good, but was he as dominant as Sutter or Gossage?

I don’t think so. Particularly not Sutter, who probably was the father of modern relief aces. He invented the position along with Gossage, and bth should be ebshrined. If I only pick one, it’s Sutter despite a short career. He led the league in saves 5 times, his career ERA is a full point lower than the league’s. And how does a reliever win a Cy Young? Smith needs to wait until those first two go in.

Lost in Tommy John’s fame for getting operated on is the fact he was one hell of a pitcher. He never won the Series, but he always played well, posting a 2.67 ERA over three Series. He’d have a shot even if he didn’t have the most famous surgery in sports history, but that contribution certainly constitutes impact on the game. It’s enough in my eyes to put him in.

Kaat also won every Gold Glove from 1962-1977. A little of that is habit, but he was a hell of a defensive player. Of his 10 closest comps, 7 are in the Hall. His closest statistical comp? Tommy John. Put them in together.

OK, Blyleven hung around trying to get that magical 300th win which never came. From 1988-1992, he was a bad pitcher trading on his name. But come on, he’s 5th all-time in strike outs. He is credited with the greatest curveball in history. And even with those lousy years at the end, check out his career ERA versus the league average. He shouldn’t have had to wait this long. And if he’s in, then 9 of Kaat’s 10 comps are in.

Now let’s look at pitchers

W L IP K ERA LgERA AS CyYoung
Jack Morris 254 186 3824 2478 3.90 4.08 5 -
Fernando Valenzuela 173 153 2930 2074 3.54 3.66 6 1981
Tommy John 288 231 4710 2245 3.34 3.69 4 -
Jim Kaat 283 237 4530 2461 3.45 3.69 2 -
Bert Blyleven 287 250 4970 3701 3.31 3.90 2 -

The good news for Jack is that of his 10 closest comps, 7 are in the Hall. The bad news is, none of them are really that comparable. What he does have are three World Series rings, and in the first two he went 3-0 with 1.54 ERA and 28 K’s over 41 innings. And maybe the greatest postseason pitching game ever, Game 7 of the 1991 Series. He wasn’t just on a World Series team, he willed his team to the title. His numbers aren’t outstanding, but they are really good, I think his peripherals should get him in.

It’s nice that Fernando made the ballot, and I wanted to include him because he was so good for such a brief period of time, but let’s not kid ourselves. He’s not Cooperstown material.

Jim Rice had a better average, but no speed and defense. So it’s a nice trade. His closest comps are a lot of the same guys on Murphy’s list, only topped by Orlando Cepeda.

Dave Parker’s also in the same group, enjoying a slightly longer career to pad those counting stats. The Hawk rounds it out, faring the best in the counting stats, also providing the best power/speed combo (over 400 SB’s) and great defense.

So do any of these guys scream Hall of Famer? Honestly, maybe Dawson, just for bringing a pennant to the Cubs, but not really. All of these guys meet the minimum standards for induction, you can make a case that there are plenty of guys enshrined that they are better than (mainly those bad Veterans Committee selections). When you look at them as a group like this, they all look the same, and they all look like guys who you could put in, but don’t have to be put in.

Like I said, I’m tempted to vote for Dawson, but really, the Hall is not any poorer for not having these players. They could go in and I wouldn’t raise a fuss, I’d say only nice things, but I wouldn’t vote for them. Sorry.

H HR RBI AVG OBP SLG GG AS MVP
Dale Murphy 2111 398 1266 265 346 469 7 5 1982, 1983
Jim Rice 2452 382 1451 298 352 502 0 8 1978
Dave Parker 2712 339 1493 290 339 471 3 7 1978
Andre Dawson 2774 438 1591 279 323 482 8 8 1987

Murphy also could steal bases. 168 of them to be exact. His closest comps are Joe Carter, who is borderline himself, Duke Snider, who’s in, and a bunch of just misses.

As good as his peak years were, we’re not talking about the Sandy Koufax of first basemen. He was great for maybe four years. And that’s it. First basemen are almost entirely defined by their offensive production, and Mattingly’s got the career numbers of Wally Joyner. And his period of greatness didn’t deliver a single title to the Yankees. He was great, but not incredibly great. And if you have a four year peak, it needs to be incredible. Mattingly doesn’t make the cut. Sorry, Donnie.

Same deal with the outfielders...

So let’s rank the other three and as soon as we reach a guy who isn’t Hall of Fame worthy, we can stop. Hernandez has the best rate stats, but the worst counting stats because by most accounts, he was a jerk and no one wanted him on their team. He didn’t get those last five years just hanging around padding his resume. Of course, Garvey was no choir boy, so Donnie Baseball is probably the only guy you’d want to see go to the Hall just because you’d like to see him get honored as a person. Mattingly and Hernandez were excellent defensive first baseman, which is a lot like being the sanest guy in the loony bin. If either of them were that good defensively, they wouldn’t be playing first base.

None of them have the milestones that merit induction, but looking at the numbers and the careers of each of these three, Mattingly is the best of the lot. He had a short career, punctuated by a great but brief peak. He was the best defensively, the best offensively, and the best as a human being. He wins on all counts, so does Mattingly deserve induction?

There are four 1st basemen on the ballot worth considering, let’s look at them:
H HR RBI AVG OBP SLG GG AS MVP
Don Mattingly 2153 222 1099 307 358 471 9 6 1985
Keith Hernandez 2182 162 1071 296 384 436 11 5 1979
Steve Garvey 2599 272 1308 294 329 446 4 10 1974
Eddie Murray 3255 504 1917 287 359 467 3 8

Murray is in. 3000 hits or 500 homers is like automatic admission, but having both is inner circle kind of numbers. It’s such a no-brainer than I can’t believe I’ve now wasted two sentences about it.

Alan Trammell
2365 hits
185 HR
1003 RBI
285/352/415
4 gold gloves, 6 All-Star games, 1987 AL MVP runner-up

He’s got better numbers than Phil Rizzuto, but Rizzuto shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame. According to similarity scores, none of his closest comps are in the Hall. Subtract defense, add some offense to concepcion and you have Trammell. He was the heart of the 1984 team, and part of perhaps the greatest longtime double play combination ever. Still, Trammell is hurt by the Ripken generation of shortstops, who will put up power numbers never before imagined by middle infielders. And his defense wasn’t so good you feel the need to enshrine him for that. No support here.

Gary Carter
2092 hits
324 HR
1225 RBI
262/335/439
3 Gold Gloves, 11 All-Star games, 1980 NL MVP runner-up

It’s criminal that Carter isn’t in Cooperstown already. He couldn’t hit like Johnny Bench, but if we use that as a standard, we’re never going to put another catcher in. According to more sophisticated fielding measures, Carter might be the greatest defensive catcher in baseball history. And he could still hit like a position player. Carter has more career homers than George Brett. If you only could vote for one candidate this year, he’d be the one. This should be the year he finally gets in. YES

Dave Concepcion
2326 hits
101 HR
950 HR
321 SB
267/322/357
5 Gold Gloves, 9 All-Star games

I liked Concepcion. I was a kid during the Big Red Machine’s late years and he was just an amazing glove man. However, we’re talking the Hall of Fame here. Is Concepcion as good as Ozzie Smith? No. And Ozzie was a better hitter. Was he better than, say, Alan Trammell? Yes, but not by much. And Trammel more than makes up for it with his bat. It’s nice he’s on the ballot, and it speaks well to his personality that so many of his former teammates are willing to stump for him, but I’m not buying. I believe in high standards for the highest honor of enshrinement in the Hall of Fame, and while I’m negotiable on Ryno, I’m not on Concepcion.

Hall of Fame ballots are due this weekend, and I've narrowed down the list to about 20 candidates who merit consideration:

C-Gary Carter
2b-Ryne Sandberg
ss-Dave Concepcion, Alan Trammell
1b- Don Mattingly, Keith Hernandez , Steve Garvey, Eddie Murray
of- Dale Murphy, Jim Rice , Dave Parker, Andre Dawson
rp- Bruce Sutter, Lee Smith, Rich Gossage
sp- Jack Morris, Fernando Valenzuela, Tommy John, Jim Kaat, Bert Blyleven

Let’s look at our middle infielders first.

Ryne Sandberg
2386 hits
282 HR
1061 RBI
344 SB
285/344/452
1984 MVP, 9 Gold Gloves, 10 All-Star games, 1990 HR champ (40)

Sandberg’s got good, but not great numbers. So his ticket to Cooperstown is tied into his defense in combination with his bat, and the fact 2nd basemen don’t hit like right fielders. He’s got better numbers than, say, Bobby Doerr, but he’s not Joe Morgan. Rod Carew got in without Sandberg’s power, but he had the magical 3000 hits. His most similar player is Lou Whitaker who had 244 HR, 1084 RBI, 2369 hits, and a 276 average. And he didn’t even make it past one ballot. Is Sandberg that much better than Sweet Lou? Sandberg would be a borderline Hall of Famer, but he does fit in the group already enshrined. He’s not as good as his reputation, but he’s still Cooperstown material. YES