It’s Tour time! Let’s just skip the part about doping. Two of the three podium finishers last year aren’t in the Tour, but Leipheimer wasn’t gonna win this thing anyway. But it sucks that we always open with doping and who isn’t racing. So let’s jump right to it: Cadel Evans finished 2nd last year and is a huge favorite this year. So let’s come up with reasons why the Aussie isn’t going to win!
JG: I’ll open with doping. Innocent until proven guilty. Enjoy the race. If anyone gets caught doping, you can call him a cheat and move on.
But first Team Previews, in alphabetical order:
AG2R
A waste of space. Without Moreau, even moreso. Maybe Calzati will win a stage, or Gadret will crack the top 20…but who cares?
JG: Valjavec finished 19th last year. That’s all the chest thumping they can do heading into this thing. The bar is low for AG2r, and I’m not sure they’ll clear it.
AGRIBUTEL
Repeat what I said about AG2R, only with Moreau on the roster. At age 37. Seriously, you’re not gonna win.
JG: Yet, I bet Phil & Paul talk about them a lot. Moreau used to be good. Jimmy Casper used come close to stage wins. Jalobert is the brother of a guy who used to win jerseys. But there is no escaping the fact that this team is wretched.
BARLOWORLD
The surprise of last year’s Tour, Soler came out of nowhere to win the dots, which makes him an excellent candidate to make that his thing. Win KoM while the heavy hitters go after the yellow. Robbie Hunter finished 2nd last year in the Green and Baden Cooke’s no slouch. All of a sudden, this is a real interesting team for the non-GC classifications. So, do they ride for the former winner Cooke or the guy who did better last year in Hunter? Having two guys at the top usually doesn’t bode well for the team involved, but I think they manage it. Who cares about learning from the past?
JG: Interesting facts: nationalities of the Barloworld guys: 2 Italians, 2 Columbians, 2 South Africans, one each from Spain, Kenya, Australia. Simply put, this team is as unorthodox as Soler’s cycling form. I don’t think Cooke will be a serious threat for green, but I expect them to be fun to watch again. Soler for dots, breakaways for stage wins.
BOUYGUES TELECOM
Still living off the glory of Voeckler’s gutty run in 2004. Nostalgia is kind of cool on VH1, not so much in the Tour. They probably won’t even win a stage.
JG: Can I still call them Bogus Telekom now that Telekom/T-Mobile no longer sponsors a team? Bouygues looks to be in a fight with AG2r and Agritubel to see what team finishes the race having done the least to justify its invitation.
CAISSE D’EPARGNE (BANESTO)
As our custom, we will refer to this team as Banesto, the old sponsor, because it is easier. Oscar Perreiro settles into his role as a domestique, though he can now call himself a former Tour winner. Valverde is a stud, and one of the favorites. Karpets is listed as an alternate, and Arroyo will be in the race, so there is a deep stable to back up the run at the Yellow. He’s the guy you’re backing if you think Cadel is gonna lose since this course doesn’t favor his time trialing edge. Which of course means, I’m backing Valverde. This is his Tour to lose. Really. Even though he’s never been on the podium before.
JG: Yes, they again send a deep team that should do some damage. That would be a big difference from last year because they had a deeply talented team that came away with nothing. I am a Valverde doubter, although the case you make for him below is strong.
Rebuttal: Show me you can deliver in the Tour before I believe you. I still think he isn’t tough enough to excel day after day in the long & steep mountains that the Tour offers.
COFIDIS
The French team that’s actually legit. They won’t win anything, but they are the standard bearers for the peloton. Won’t embarrass themselves, which is high praise for a French team.
JG: Not really a resounding endorsement for Cofids. If it weren’t for AG2r, Agritubel, and BT, you’d be more critical, wouldn’t you?
SB: Yes.
CREDIT AGRICOLE
Thor!!! CA used to be a well-rounded team that tried to compete in everything, but now it just exists to ride as a train for Hushovd, who I friggin’ love. OK, he’s not going to win the Green, but I will openly root for him like I always do.
JG: I think Thor’s got a decent chance, especially with Boonen out of the race. But, yes, this team is really relying on him. No one else on that team has ever amounted to anything in the Tour.
CSC
Probably the best team on earth. Of the heavy hitters of the Lance Era, only CSC is still going strong in anything resembling it’s original form. Sastre is a podium contender as a climber who can’t time trial. But what a team. Cancellera is going to wear yellow after the prologue. The Schleck brothers are great domestiques, each have a shot at a top ten finish, and Andy is a near lock to win the White. O’Grady will contest a few sprint stages. And then there’s Jens Voigt. I don’t think there’s a guy in the Tour I like more than Voigt. I hope he wins a stage.
JG: There is no prologue this year, but Cancellara may still work his way into yellow. The great thing about this team is that they have the talent to find success regardless how the race unfolds. They could have different guys win a few stages, or Sastre might be a podium contender.
EUSKATEL
I write them off, and the finally show up last year. I say that, but they didn’t wear a jersey or win a stage, but at least they had two guys in the top ten and Zubeldia finished 5th. He’s an outside podium contender, but I just don’t see it. He can’t time trial and the team is always more concerned with the Vuelta. I’m hoping last year wasn’t a fluke, but I just don’t see them seriously putting a guy on the podium.
JG: Zubledia is an awesome rider. He consistently finishes well in the GC…it would be nice to see him win a stage or wear a jersey. But if the past is predictive, he’ll finish in the top 10 and the rest of his team will be invisible.
FDJ
Casar or Chavanel might win a stage. That’s about where this team peaks. Cofidis with less talent.
JG: Another French team with questionable talent? Is this 5 already? Well, someone has to win stages and wear the leader’s jerseys. With so many weak teams, there’s an opportunity for one of these loser teams. Of course, there are so many weak teams because so many cyclists have been exiled by doping scandals, but I digress.
SB: Not entirely fair. The French teams sucked before the doping scandals and they were getting invites back then as well.
GARMIN-CHIPOTLE
I rarely mention the second sponsor on teams, but I do have to say I love a Chipotle burrito. Just sayin’. Tom Danielson is a no-show, so they aren’t a threat to win anything. Millar will lose the time trial and find a way to blame someone else. Why does the standard bearer for anti-doping have to be such a whiny puss?
JG: Julian Dean is a pretty talented sprinter who could steal a stage, but I don’t think he’ll contend for green. But, yeah, this team doesn’t look strong, but is likely to get lots of attention because of their anti-doping theme.
GEROLSTEINER
Their goal is to win stages. So they’ve conceded the GC and any other classification and they hope Wegmann or Fothen can catch people napping. Way to set the goals high, boys.
JG: Remember a few years ago we said Gerolsteiner was at the crossroads between taking the next step to becoming a serious team or getting stuck in the mud with the other also-rans? So how has that turned out?
HIGH ROAD
Rogers is a no-show, which actually makes things clear for the team: Kim Kirchen is the man. The former T-Mobile team is actually a bigger threat to win the Green as Mark Cavendish has decided to show up. The question is: can he make it through the Alps? And look! George Hincapie sighting!
JG: And how pleased they must be to pin their hopes on Kirchen instead of Rogers! Are you mentioning Cavendish to mock the buzz that the cycling mags are throwing his way? Isn’t it more likely that he’s just the next edition in a long line of over-hyped British athletes?
SB: It’s possible, and I’m not picking him to win, but the field for Green is wide open. He’s also done well in his head to head contests with most of the sprinters in the field. But he’s British and will therefore lose.
LAMPRE
Never, ever, ever bet on an Italian team in the Tour. Cunego would be a favorite to win, I just can’t bring myself to believe they will actually try. Maybe they will. But I’m skeptical.
JG: Lemme tell ya something…Cunego is the only rider in the race who has ever won a Grand Tour, except Pereiro, who won due to Floyd Landis’ failed drug test. No, I’m not advising you bet on Cunego, but if anyone in the field is a sleeper pick, he’s the guy. And remember, he won the Giro when his team was supposedly working for Gilberto Simoni, so he can do is work when he lacks the full support of a team.
SB: Apparently Menchov’s two Vuelta wins didn’t happen.
LIQUIGAS
Speaking of Italian teams not trying in the Tour: Bennati is skipping the Tour. Which dials back the expectations to…what, exactly? The Spanish guy (Beltran) trying to finish top 15?
JG: Bennati is injured. Still, Pozatto won a stage last year, and also won one a couple years prior. Roman Kreuziger won the Tour of Switzerland last month. He’s a Tour rookie…sometimes talented rookies get crushed, and sometimes they don’t. Anyway, he’s a white jersey contender. So this team could be good: a stage win or 2, a top 20 finish, and a jersey contender.
LOTTO
Evans for the Yellow. McEwen for the Green. Popovych to domestique. Pretty simple formula. The Pocket rocket ain’t exactly the dominant force he once was, which leads to a dilemma: how much effort do you expend trying to win the Green when you need to save energy for the mountains to win the Yellow? We’ll see how serious a threat McEwen is by his team’s behavior because you have to think they want to conserve their energy and maybe try and win just one stage for old time’s sake for McEwen.
JG: Think I pronounced McEwen too old three years ago. So long as Zabel is still racing, maybe McEwen isn’t too old. He only has 3 wins on the year, so maybe he is out of gas. The absence of Boonen makes him an intimidating factor again. Evans was oh-so-close to winning the Tour last year. Was that because he’s the next big thing, or was that his one chance that slipped away? Although he’s the heavy favorite, I’m wondering if he can drop people in the mountains.
SB: I’m not just doubting it, I’m flat out saying it: Evans will not drop the serious contenders in the mountains. If he wins, it’s the hang on tight in the climbs and win on the ITT strategy.
MILRAM
Zabel keeps showing up despite having nothing to prove. He’s the greatest sprinter in Tour history, but he hasn’t won a stage since 2002. Someone let him win one so he can retire. Actually, don’t. Because he was a factor last year and if you let him win one, he’ll win the Green.
JG: In two years on the Tour, Milram has never won a stage or worn a jersey. Their best finish was 41st. So, let’s see you guys do something to earn a bid.
QUICK STEP
Boonen got caught doing cocaine so all of a sudden, this team has nothing to ride for. Steegmans once accidentally beat Boonen in a sprint, so I guess he’s their point man now.
JG: Yikes! It could be a bad year for a team that usually does well. Just wondering... did Boonen go to Florida St?
RABOBANK
Menchov is the last of the big favorites (with Evans, Sastre, and Valverde), but probably the longshot of the four. Rabobank always brings a strong team, though this one isn’t as strong as past editions, but Menchov has always cracked on the big climbs. Freire is there to contend for the Green and this might be his best chance to ever win it. Rabobank has to make a tough choice over whether to support him, though I doubt they will.
JG: Menchov has looked great mid-race, but faded—a definite stamina problem. There are a couple former/potential stage winners on this team. I wonder if they will be an average team, or if they’ll manage something more. So much depends upon Menchov actually finishing the job.
SAUNIER DUVAL
De La Feunte wore the dots once for attacking on a flat stage. That’s the kind of event they need for success in the Tour.
JG: An also-ran, imported from Italy.
OK, enough of this. Let’s get to the picks:
DOTS
1. Soler
2. Astarloza
3. Sastre
Here’s the logic: neither Soler or Astarloza are GC contenders, and they’ll be allowed to rack up the points. Sastre will be know he’s gonna get his ass kicked in the time trial and will have a huge day in the mountains to make up for it. Popovych and Evans might show up as a tag team.
JG:
1. Soler
2. Popovych
3. Koos Moerenhout
Here’s the logic. We know Soler can win, and so does he. He’ll suffer again for two long mountain breakaways to get the points. I pick Popovych because either he’ll be leading Evans over the mountains or riding for himself if Evans blows it. I picked Koos because his name is cool, and there was no other way we would mention it. Besides, the KoM is a total crap shoot.
GREEN
1. McEwen
2. Cavendish
3. Zabel
I’m going with the old men. I’m not sold on Hunter, as I think last year was a fluke, and he only won one stage. Hushovd gobbles up those intermediate points but rarely wins the big sprint, though I am pulling for him. Freire is the guy who scares me. Cavendish is just too young, though I think this is good experience. There’s about 10 other guys who have a shot depending on how the first week goes, but I’m not sold on anyone. And Zabel finished 3rd last year. Why can’t he do it again?
JG:
1. Thor
2. Sebastien Chavanel
3. Zabel
I don’t think Cavendish or McEwen will make it through the mountains, but I think Zabel will. Chavanel was pretty good last year, and Thor is Thor. He’s won several stages in the past, and he won the green jersey without winning a stage. Consistent, but able to win a stage or two.
YELLOW
1. Valverde
2. Evans
3. Sastre
4. F. Schleck
5. Menchov
I don’t trust Cunego. Zubeldia doesn’t have the team. Kirchen is interesting, but I can’t see him winning, though he might sneak onto the podium. I can see one of the Schlecks making a run at it (probably Frank), which will tank CSC’s unity and any chance Sastre has given his crappy time trialing. Menchov always finds away to grab defeat, and I don’t think Rabobank can carry him in the Alps. So I keep coming back to Valverde and Evans. Breaking them down...
EVANS: He finished 2nd last year in a non-threatening sort of way. He’s the kind of guy who just hangs around in the mountains and kills you on the time trial. Worked for Indurain. But Evans isn’t Big Mig. He’s never even won a stage. And for a great time trialist, it was the ITT which killed his chances last year. I think I’m trying to talk myself out of Evans because he’s so damn boring, but I just don’t get the feeling he has that killer instinct.
VALVERDE: While Evans has the best top lieutenant in Popovych, Valverde’s team is deeper. Perreiro is a former Tour winner (sort of) with no illusions of being the number one. Karpets is listed as a sub right now, but Arroyo is another great climber who will be in support. Valverde’s not a great time trialist, but he’s good enough to hang with Evans, and he’s a terrific climber. He’s on peak form, winning Liege-Baston-Liege and the Dauphine Libere. Things always seem to conspire against Valverde, but it’s all in place this year, especially a course that doesn’t favor the ITT. The course is enough to bump it in his favor in my eyes.
JG: Evans and Valverde are safe picks because they are the established favorites. There are good arguments to be made for either, and you made them. The Tour is no longer in the predictable days of Lance Armstrong, so I’ll go with an unconventional name. Yet, it’s a conventional theme—someone who can ride hard in the mountains day after day and do a pretty good time trial too.
1. Yaroslav Popovych
2. Alejandro Valverde
3. Carlos Sastre
4. Damiano Cunego
5. Cadel Evans
SB: I really like that pick. I wish I had thought of it.
