Let's wait until tomorrow

Did you ever hear of Linus Gerdemann before today? Neither did I. The way he suffered over the Colombiere I wonder if he'll make it all the way to Paris. That doesn't matter for the moment since he has a stage win, a white jersey, and a yellow jersey for his trouble. When he attacked early on the climb it looked like a fool's errand, but Tour rookies are foolish enough to take such risks, and sometimes are brave/crazy enough to make them work.

The main contenders were content to ride fast enough to limit the breakaway, but slow enough so as to conserve energy for tomorrow. None of the favorites lost time. I wonder if one week from now anyone will regret not having attacked Vinokourov and Kloden as they recovered from their crashes.

De la Fuente and Rasmussen picked up some climbing points to eat into Chavanel's lead. Either one could take it tomorrow because there are three cat. 1 climbs. If de la Fuente or Chavanel try a long breakway to score points, they may get away if they leave early in the stage. Rasmussen does not have that luxury--he's too good a rider for the peloton to allow him to escape. That means Rabobank may spend a lot of energy protecting Rasmussen to chase down Chavanel or de la Fuente. That's not a problem, unless it interferes with their ability to support Denis Menchov. Still, Rabobank looked good controlling the peloton today.

After 7 stages and one day in the Alps, none of the contenders have lost the Tour, but no one has distinguished himself as the man to beat.

The green jersey race at halftime

Since we'll all be preoccupied with Alps through Tuesday, I'll focus on the green jersey now. It is halftime--5 of the first 7 days were for sprinters, and they have 5 more stages in which they can score big points remaining. Actually, 2 of those 5 are tricky because they finish on the downhill, so they may get shut out of a bunch finish or two.

Here are the current standings:
Tom Boonen 141 pts.
Erik Zabel 130
Oscar Freire 114
Robbie Hunter 103
THOR! 101
Robbie McEwen 97
Sebastien Chavanel 94

How'd we get here? Boonen, THOR, and McEwen all won stages. Zabel, Freire, and Hunter have all been close and fairly consistent. Chavanel has been consistent too, just not as close. McEwen and THOR have both suffered lousy days with few or no points.

Don't assume they'll all make it out of the mountains, and don't assume those who do make it out will have strong sprinting legs. Clearly, Boonen has the best chance to win. He's got a commanding lead on everyone except Zabel, over whom his lead is simply fair. It also helps that Boonen has proven to be faster than Zabel head to head. For Zabel (or anyone else) to catch him, Boonen is going to have to make a mistake or have something goofy happen--like, say, getting hurt in a crash. Speaking of which, McEwen is now on the outside looking in. For him to have any chance, he needs to win stages. Picking up intermediate sprint points would help too, but I can't remember him ever giving a hoot about the intermediate sprints. Boonen, apparently has started caring, as he took 4 points in one during stage 6. While Boonen's lead is daunting, he can't afford a goose egg, and those sorts of results have been very common among the elite sprinters this year.


Finally!

Stage 6: Boonen wins, Cancellara's last day in the lead

Would someone please tell T-Mobile that Erik Zabel is no longer on their team?

I'm at a loss to explain why the team has spent so much time at the front of the peloton these last few days, but there they are. Everyday, reeling in breaks and making things easy for their green jersey contender... oh, that's right, they don't have one. Or maybe they are defending their yellow jersey... nope, wait... yeah Cancellara still rides for rival CSC. I don't get it.

McEwen, after looking so dominant on Stage One, tumbled even further down the points standings to sixth place and 44 points out. Boonen took back his green jersey from Zabel with a terrific sprint, not to mention the points he gobbled up on the road. Could this finally be the year that the black cloud lifts from Boonen? It's looking that way, but you know what they say about counting chickens. He's got 11 points on Zabel and 27 on Freire. Now he has to make it through the mountains in one piece.

To follow up on Astana, both Kloden and Vino started today's stage. The question is how they will ride in the mountains, and we will have our answer tomorrow. I would like to clarify that I wasn't saying yesterday the team had lapsed into dysfunction, just that the potential was there. It's easy to mouth platitudes, it's much more diffiuclt to carry someone else's water when you think you can win the yellow. It's worth watching to see how the Astana dynamic develops.

This is Cancellara's last day in yellow, which even he concedes. He has said he will support his teammates in the mountains and he graciously thanked everyone for keeping him in yellow for the best week of his racing life. And so the race for the GC truly begins.

Stage 5: The No-Good, Terrible, Very Bad Day

It was a bad day for the Tour. First off, whoever designed the course route for the day needs to be dragged out into the street and beaten severely. What the hell was that? Some organizer's idea of a sick joke?

ORGANIZER #1: "Hey, I know. Let's have an undulating stage in which the final five km is all downhill on a narrow road with tons of switchbacks and s-curves?"
ORGANIZER #2: "What if the peloton is still together? It's not like the climbs are so tough as to absolutely splinter the field. These are professionals, after all."
ORGANIZER #1: "Eh... screw 'em."

It was an unnecessarily dangerous descent, and one in which we were pretty lucky not to have a horrific crash. That many riders still bunched together, all going full speed downhill, and without room to maneuver? It was just a poorly conceived stage. But the course designers weren't the only ones to have a bad day.

THE SPRINTERS
McEwen finished over ten minutes back. He's never been a great climber, but he was completely dropped on what can hardly be classified as the toughest of ascents. I think Jason's right, his wrist is worse than he's letting on. Boonen also got dropped, though he finished only about a minute back. However, what's the difference between one minute and ten when you need to finish top twenty to earn any points on the day? Both of the top sprinters left the door open for the rest of the field...

...and Erik Zabel walked right in. Zabel took enough points to leapfrog past the leaders and he finds himself back in a familiar place, wearing the green jersey. When do we start taking him seriously as a legit threat to win it? Look at the standings after today's stage:

Zabel(MIL): 102 pts
Boonen(QSP): 98
McEwen(LOT): 84
Freire(RAB): 84
Hunter(BAR): 83
Hushovd(CA): 79

Boonen is probably still the favorite, but they have put some distance between themselves and the pack. And Hushovd has to have another big stage. Just saying.

THE CLIMBERS
OK, Auge knew he was just keeping the polka dots warm, so he can't be too upset to see someone else on the podium today. But if you're gonna lose a jersey, it's nice to lose it to a teammate. Sylvain Chavanel has been all over the place in these early stages, so its nice to see him get some recognition. This is his second straight day pushing the break, and this time he gets to wear dots for his troubles. Chavanel's on his seventh Tour, and he's always put forth a solid effort, so he gets some well deserved glory with his first jersey. Sebastian Chavanel, if you haven't noticed, is doing pretty well in the green jersey chase.

But, as a reason for concern, Rasmussen picked up eight points on the climbs today. No big deal. He's still way back in the standings. but he has announced his presence. He will contest this jersey. He's not gonna let Chavanel build up to big of a lead. All the climbers need to worry. Rasmussen's out here to win his third straight title.

ASTANA
What a craptacular day for Astana.

Kloden crashed in the early going, and his team dropped back to work him back in the peloton. OK, so the team used up some strength, and got one of its contenders back in the race. Big deal, right?

Well, Vinokourov would then crash, even tearing his pants (leading to a visual I could have lived without, Vino riding with his ass literally hanging out). But Astana had already burned itself working Kloden back in. Salvodelli, for example, 7:04 back. He wasn't alone among Astana riders finishing well back. Vino was on his own, and he fought valiantly, but lost 1:20 to the field. That's a lot of time to lose before we have hit the Alps.

Which opens up the worst case scenario for Astana. They are about to do their best T-Mobile impression, even with some of the same characters. Kloden has got to think he's the team's best chance to win. Vino's not gonna concede his shot to win the Tour on his first bad day, especially since the damage is only a minute. And Kashechkin is still lurking in the wings. At least Salvodelli is clearly a domestique. We're not quite at the level of Telekom dysfunction we've seen in previous Tours, but this has got to be the story to watch headed to the Alps.

Edited to Add:
Apparently the day for Astana just got worse. Kloden has a fractured coccyx and may withdraw from the Tour. Well, at least that clears up the leadership picture.

Textbook lead out

Remember the mistake in Stage 2, when Tom Boonen's lead out man won the stage. There was no such mistake in stage 4 today. Julian Dean earned his yearly salary with a superb lead out to deliver Thor Hushovd to the finishing line. They should also thank the two guys who were at the front before Dean kicked, because those guys set such a fast pace that the field was stretched out. As Dean led Hushovd, the only one close enough to get Hushovd's wheel was Robbie Hunter.

Yesterday some moron said the green jersey was a two man race. Today Boonen and McEwen finished 8th and 16th (18 and 10 points, respectively). Meanwhile Hushovd, Hunter, Freire, and Zabel scored 35, 30, 26, and 24 points each, respectively. So, this is a substantial shift in the green jersey standings

Boonen 98
Zabel 86
McEwen 84
Hunter 81
Hushovd 79
Sebastien Chavanel 70
Gert Steegmans 66
Freire 62

Yesterday there were only 2 men within 20 points of Boonen's lead, but now there are 4.
Hushovd and Hunter have given themselves a fighting chance by going 1-2 on a day when Boonen and McEwen didn't have their A-game. One wonders if McEwen is suffering physically from the crash in stage 1--since then he has been totally average. And what about 37-year old Zabel. He finished 2nd & 4th on consecutive days. He clearly still has more in the tank than I thought.

See the FDJ rider in white on the right...why does he have his head turned in the final sprint?














photo from AFP via velonews.com

THOR!

Celebrate like a Viking.

The Tour Sucks because the athletes are full of dope, and there are no stars contending for yellow, and the same guy dominates the green jersey.

Like Americans scoffing at soccer, the anti-cycling fan, who at best wants to ignore it and at worst demonizes it as phony, would probably nod his head in approval at the title of this post.

Not having stars isn't a problem. They will identify themselves in the the mountains. Just in case the Tour might have suffered for lack of a star in the first week, we have the exploits of Fabian Cancellara, as described in the post below.

These first few stages are supposed to be for the sprinters. After McEwen left everyone in his wake on stage one, you could have been excused for thinking he would slaughter the field and hold the green jersey all the way to Paris. Then a funny thing happened. In the last two stages McEwen finished outside the top 5 twice, while Boonen finished 2nd & 4th. Boonen's 1 point lead after stage 2 has grown to 6. That's not large at all, but what is significant is that after stage one, it looked like McEwen would have a 20 point lead by now.

The bad news is that it might already be a two man race for green. Boonen has 80; McEwen has 74; Zabel has 62. There are several other riders with greater than 40 points, but these guys need the two front runners to come up empty in a bunch sprint in order to get back into contention. Thor Hushovd and Oscar Freire keep slipping further away as they can't finish near the front. But hey, a two man race is better than a one man race, and quite honestly, Boonen is the only guy who has proven he can beat McEwen repeatedly, albeit 2 years ago.

As for the doping problem, I told you that all the riders signed a statement saying they are clean, so there.

Stage 3: Tactical Maneuvers Pay Off

Two interesting gambits paid off today.

First, Auge attacked the peloton and chased down the two-man break in order to pick up a few points in the climbing competition. Only Willems reacted and the two of them closed a three and half minute gap in just about seven km. The peloton shrugged. Which allows me to poke even more fun of David Millar. Look, you make a big show of attacking on some hills to take the dots when the jersey doesn't much matter, only to completely fail to defend it the next day? How can Saunier Duval be caught so flat-footed? Are they really they weak of a team that they can't contain Stephane Auge? How is he allowed to break off and form a chase group without a single rider from Saunier Duval reacting? Just a great gamble by Auge, as he gets to wear dots for a few days, which is a pretty big deal when you're Stephane Auge.

But the real gambit was by Fabian Cancellara, who once again demonstrates how riders suddenly become better just by wearing the yellow jersey. The break looked like it was going to work, even at the last km, only to be swallowed up by the peloton in the final few hundred meters. But instead of the sprinters running to the front and taking the stage, Cancellara bolted from the pack early and held off the sprinters to the line. Just an awesome performance, and one that gives him some breathing room due to time bonuses. He should now be in yellow until this race hits the Alps. CSC did almost no work today, perferring to let the sprinter teams do some work for once, yet CSC still manages to surpass their goals: instead of merely hanging on to the yellow jersey for Cancellara, he wins his second stage of the Tour. Not bad for a time trialing specialist.

It was the kind of move I didn't think would work. How is Cancellara going to hold off the sprinting powers? But it worked to perfection. Just a perfectly timed, yet extremely bold move. I absolutely love when a guy lives up to the honor wearing the maillot jaune. Cancellara is a worthy race leader. Today, he really earned that yellow jersey he's wearing.

Cleaning Up Yesterday's Mess

Two important tidbits from Velonews today, clearing up some of the carnage from yesterday's stage. I didn't want to talk about the crash until we knew who was going to withdraw from the race. The grand total: one rider. Thomas Vaitkus of Discovery is the only rider who couldn't make the Stage Three start. Pretty amazing given the carnage at the end of yesterday's stage. That probably means the rider most affected by the crash, as pointed out by Jason yesterday in the comments, is Thor Hushovd, who failed to earn a single point in the final sprint as he was caught in the crash.

Also, Velonews identified Erik Zabel as the cause of yesterday's crash. Which means Zabel caused Hushovd to earn zero points and later blocked McEwen from getting a clear look at the line. Boonen owes Zabel a beer.

Stage 2: The Wrong Guy Wins

Well, that’s one way to end up in Green. Tom Boonen finally beats McEwen in a sprint, only to lose to his own leadout man at the line. Steegmans might be the first guy in the history of the Tour to be slightly ticked he won the stage.

His goal was to get Boonen to the line first. Whoops. You don’t think those five points are going to come in handy later? Boonen has exactly one point over McEwen right now. McEwen has proven himself to be a stronger sprinter. Which means Boonen needs every point he can get. Leaving five on the table is not earth-shattering, but it’s a big deal. Boonen needs to gobble up every point he can.

I’m not sure why CSC is expending so much energy to defend the yellow, but they have such a track record of terrific tactics, I’m not going to criticize. They are keeping Cancellara in yellow, knowing he’s not a real contender. Sastre is their guy. Maybe this is just practice for Zabriskie and Voigt. But I do admire their respect for the maillot jaune. You have the jersey, you defend it.

Stage 1: McEwen? Still Good

How awesome is Robbie McEwen? And how has he only won 12 stages in his career? Because it seems like he’s won about a hundred.

This one was classic McEwen. Crash in the final 25km. Get dropped by the peloton. Rally back to the pack. Be nowhere near the front during the final lead out. Magically appear. Win by a full bike length.

Ho-hum.

Maybe he should try to win a stage after sawing off a leg. Maybe he should give his a rivals a 50 meter headstart. You know, just to be fair. There’s nothing McEwen cannot do. He is so far ahead of everyone else. He is clearly the best sprinter in the field.

So what hope does Tom Boonen have? Well, McEwen did hurt his wrist today. So maybe McEwen will lose something on the upcoming sprints. Maybe he won’t be able to make it thorugh the mountains. Maybe… well, Boonen better hope there’s a maybe. Because in an honest race, McEwen beats everybody.

Stage 1 Shocker

In a stunning repeat of stages 2, 4, and 6 of last year, Robbie McEwen won the race today. That's really not surprising, but what was really impressive was the way his team helped him back to the peloton and all the way to the front of the pack after a crash in the final 20 km. Not easy at all. Aside from that, his burst of speed was really impressive. He passed the other guys like they were standing still.

Thor and Boonen were 2nd & 3rd, so they didn't lose much in terms of points. Oscar Freire was 7th and Erik Zabel was 13th--they did dig holes for themselves on day one.

David Millar was sneaky enough to sprint for the speed bumps that qualified as category 4 climbs, so he wears the poseur polka dot jersey. That's pretty cool, but don't think we'll stop making fun of him.