Stage 1: God Bless America!

Get used to it, Jan (picture from VeloNews)



Four riders in the top six hailed from the goold old US of A. Four. So you could say it was a good day for Americans in the Tour. Hell, it might be the best day Americans have ever had on the Tour, and that's saying something. Four of six!

Hell, Bobby Julich and Levi Leipheimer were lurking at 11th and 14th, not that far off the pace. This day could not have gone any better for the United States. We focus on Lance so much, we kind of forget about the rest of the Americans out there. Let's take a second for some good old fashioned nationalism: we're pretty damn good. The US is third overall in the National rankings of the UCI, behind only Spain and Italy. Really, when Armstrong started winning the Tour, the overall success of US cycling we're currently enjoying was unimaginable. Boys and girls, the US has arrived.

I'm also genuinely happy for David Zabriskie. He not only won the stage, he set the record for the fastest ITT in Tour history. Just when we thought no one would ever catch Greg LeMond (keeping with the American theme). Zabriskie never really got a shot on US Postal, and he was let go in the offseason. Things seem to working out on CSC, eh? He's ineligible for the white jersey by a few months, so this is about the only hardware he can really expect to win. But if you're gonna win a stage, make it the first one so you get that day in yellow.

OK, enough with the niceties, let's get down to business.

Remember all of that crap about Armstrong not being that fit for the Tour? Well, we cleared that rumor up real quick. He's ready. He finished two seconds behind Zabriskie, but a full 51 seconds ahead of the third-placed Vinokourov. So he put almost a full minute between himself and the field. Welcome to reality. Iban Mayo's already out of the GC, 3 minutes down. He's not making that up. People like Totschnig and Heras can lie to themselves and pretend they have a podium shot, but Mayo can't even indulge in that fantasy. He's toast.

Two themes we hit on before the Tour really came to the forefront: Lance doesn't just beat you physically, he crushes your spirit; and T-Mobile is dysfunctional. Let's look at both.

Spirits Crushed
A full minute. How is that possible? The course wasn't long enough for anyone to gain a minute on the real contenders. I mean, Vino had a great day, and he only took 30 seconds from Basso. He's in third place, and has to figure out how to get a minute back from Armstrong. We're a day in, and the entire field has to be thinking, "here we go again." Of course, the rider with his spirit most ground into dust (other than Mayo) is Jan Ullrich, who suffered the indignity of getting passed by Armstrong. No one else got that special extra kick to the groin. Which leads nicely into...

T-Mobile Is Dysfunctional
The outgoing manager is ripping you in the press and it seems he's not just whistling Dixie. Godefroot has now told anyone who will listen that Ullrich is only the captain for commercial reasons, he had to keep Zabel off to make Ullrich happy, and that he thinks both Vino and Kloden are better. And he's probably right.

We're enjoyed a solid month of stories that run like this:

"Jan is ready this time. No, really. Stop laughing. He's in shape. I told you, stop laughing. It's not funny. We're serious this time. Lance is in big trouble. No. Huge trouble. We're surprised he's even showing up. Jan looks that good. Really. He's amazing. Will you please stop laughing?"

Well, he's not ready. And he's not going to beat Lance. But this might not be good news for T-Mobile, as usually they harbor the Ullrich Delusion for a two weeks before admitting Vino or Kloden has a better shot. They might realize right away they need to ride for Vino, which means they won't waste the time and energy riding for Ullrich. Which is no good for Lance. We identified Vino's biggest weakness as his team, and maybe, just maybe, that is now a strength. Let's see how they ride the flat stages.

Stage 1

Stage 1 was great. I think we owe a little apology to the organizers. They obviously knew something about this course we didn’t know. On most flat roads 19 km would not have changed much, but the winds on the Atlantic coast made it a pretty significant day. However, we don’t owe them a full apology, as our point about substituting a long time trial with this mini-ITT is still valid. Ordinarily we’d see much more separation in the field. The last man, Leonardo Piepoli, was 4:40 behind the winner, but if you throw out the times of Zabriskie and Armstrong, who were so much better than everyone else, and Piepoli, who I assume must have fallen off his bike 2 or 3 times, the remaining 186 riders were separated by under 3 minutes. That just isn’t very much. Our complaint concerning the de-emphasis of the Race of Truth stands, but that didn’t stop Mayo, Heras, Totschnig, Mancebo, and Garzelli from losing 2+ minutes right out of the gate.

David Zabriskie beat Armstrong by 2 seconds and everyone else by a mile. What a nice way to start your first Tour! He’s only 26, but he already owns stage wins in all 3 Grand Tours. Now he owns the Tour record for fastest time trial, finally beating the old one set by Greg LeMond. Americans are pretty darn good at time trials.

Jan Ullrich must be demoralized after Lance Armstrong passed him during the race. This is a guy whose strongest feature is his time trial, and he got passed by his rival in a 19 km time trial. It’s in part because there was only a 1 minute gap (not 2) between them at the start, and possibly because he’s hurting from the crash he suffered yesterday. But excuses don’t change the blow to the morale or the fact that he’s 66 seconds behind Armstrong on day 1. He’s also 15 seconds behind Vinokourov, which is the opposite of what I expected. Obviously there is a lot of racing to go, but his Tour might already be ruined.

Certainly Armstrong is a big winner on the day. He put 53 seconds on Vinokourov and 1:22 on Basso. That’s a nice cushion to take to the team time trial. The whole team was great. Hincapie was 4th on the day; Rubiera and Popyvich were in the top 20. Beltran was the last guy from Discovery to cross the line, but he was 70th and he beat the entire Euskaltel team. However, CSC managed to beat Discovery in team time by 4 seconds on the strength of Zabriskie, Voigt, and Basso. If they can hold that lead, they will start last in the stage 4 TTT.

Random, My Left Foot

Via the truly indispensible tdfblog, it seems the French government did "random" blood sampling on the Tour field. Its random sample was exactly one rider: Lance Armstrong. A ride wide swath there.

This is patently ridiculous. Seriously, the French couldn't even pretend this was random by getting samples from a few minor domestiques? What a complete joke.

BTW- T-Mobile has signed Michael Rogers for next year as well as Patrik Sinkewitz. A team of Kloden, Vino, Ullrich, Zabel, and Rogers is unmanageable. It's like they sign riders to prevent them from competing with Ullrich.

Pickin and Grinnin

JASON: First a couple things about the course. I hate the way they neuter the team time trial. The time gaps are determined by place, not time. The second place team loses 20 seconds to the first (unless they finish within 20s). Specific maximum time gaps are assigned to each place. The 12^th team loses no more than a minute; the last team loses no more than 2:50. Last year USPS won this event by a mile. Why try so hard again this year? This system discourages teams from putting forth their best effort. But Iban Mayo has to be happy.

The other big change is that the prologue and first time trial have been morphed into one 19 km time trial to open the Tour. It’s not a prologue, just a short stage 1 time trial. The only other individual time trial is in the penultimate stage. This really hurts the elite time trialists like Ullrich, Armstrong, and Botero. Again, Iban Mayo and Roberto Heras must be happy. I don’t like this change, but I can excuse it because the guys who design the course are just trying to throw in something different. It’s simply a course that doesn’t favor time trialists. There used to be courses with 3 ITTs. Hopefully this is just a silly variation and not a trend.

Now to the picks…

STEPHEN: When will the organizing committee ever learn? You cannot stop Lance via tinkering with the course or jiggering the rules? Given that this is the last chance for someone to beat Lance, this change in course again to his disadvantage really hurts his competitors the most. If they beat Lance, it is because of the rules committee and if they fail, it is with every advantage in the world. It takes something away from the honest pursuit of Armstrong.

The Tour is timeless. It’s one thing to change the course up, the course is slightly different every year, but these massive changes aimed at one guy makes the Tour look silly. It should be bigger than one rider, even Lance.

Yellow jersey

JASON:

The pick

1. Lance Armstrong
2. Alexandre Vinokourov
3. Levi Leipheimer

Call me boring, but I think Armstrong wins again. People criticize his performance to date—no wins in 2005, but I’m not concerned. It’s not important that he wins the Tour of Georgia and the Dauphine. It’s only important that he’s near the front. In the Dauphine he was fourth, one minute of the winner. A year ago he was fourth, two minutes behind, and I think he did OK in the 2004 Tour. The team is still great; he’s still elite in both the mountains and the time trials. He prepares for the course better than anyone. He’s been invincible for so long that he intimidates his competitors—Ullrich: "Lance has dominated the Tour for the last six years and whoever beats him is going to be the greatest." Vinokourov "We are going there with the intention of turning the heat on Armstrong and hopefully force him to crack. But the guy is exceptionally strong and motivated. It is hard to imagine him cracking. He will be in top form." Why wouldn’t I think he’s going to win again?

Alexandre Vinokourov has the best shot at beating Armstrong, but the problem is that he has to convince his team to work for him first. So, if I’m Vino, I attack Ullrich on stage 9—the first mountain stage. Ullrich is always a bit weak on the first mountain anyway. Ullrich is a better man in the time trial, but with only a 19 km TT prior to the mountains, he will probably have no more than 20 seconds on Vino. When Vino takes 2 minutes out of him on stage 9, even Telekom will know who their leader is. The question about Vino is will he have the legs in the third week? I think Vino will wear yellow, but Lance will take it from him in the last week.

I’ll take a sleeper pick to finish the podium. Levi Leipheimer. I think Ullrich and Basso are more likely, but Leipheimer is riding well. His problem is that he always has one bad day in the mountains (aside from the time he broke his hip in a crash). If he can avoid the 4-minute wipe out, he’ll be in good shape.

STEPHEN:

The pick

1. Lance Armstrong
2. Alexandre Vinokourov
3. Santiago Botero

Every year, we look for a reason to pick against Lance and come up empty. Why should this year be different? There is no reason to think anyone can beat him until proven otherwise. Armstrong specializes in ripping out the hearts of his competitors. He doesn’t just beat you physically, he wears you down mentally and spiritually. There’s only two riders in the entire field who honestly believe they beat Armstrong: Vino and Basso. Both have other factors working against them.

Vino has the disorganization of T-Mobile. They go into this Tour not sure whether to ride for Vino or Ullrich, but early indications are they’ll line up for the longtime boss, which is precisely the wrong strategy. Ullrich is past his prime, and in his prime he couldn’t beat Lance. Why do we think he’ll start now? I think even Ullrich knows he can’t do it.

Basso has the problem of fatigue. While we did praise him for gutting out the Giro with a nasty case of the flu, perhaps the wisest course would have been to abandon and save strength for the Tour. Actually, that makes me admire Basso’s tenacity even more. He had a ready-made excuse, yet he still refused to give in. Mental toughness is key, but Basso has a high chance of bonking.

Which leaves me a random third rider. Why not Botero? He’s been wildly inconsistent in the past, but he’s riding as if a ten-ton brick has been lifted off his shoulders (its called getting the hell away from T-Mobile). Phonak’s shown resilience in the past, and they’d love to put those drug convictions in the rear view mirror. I’m not convinced Landis is anything more than a really, really good domestique. He was incredible last year, but suddenly he’s a GC contender? Supporting Botero, he could get someone else to the podium.

I should also mention Menchov, who’s a good young rider and will have a pretty good domestique in Rasmussen. He’s a real wild card in all of this. But I’m such a sucker for Rabobank.

Green jersey

JASON:

The pick

1. Robbie McEwen
2. Thor Hushovd
3. Tom Boonen

I’d like to see Thor Hushovd win just because I like his name. Thor can beat McEwen, he just can’t beat him more than McEwen beats him. Tom Boonen is almost as good as they are. Also, the course leaves a lot of points in the last week—pretty much the opposite of last year. Maybe some of these guys will lose their sprinting legs over the mountains.

STEPHEN:

The pick

1. Robbie McEwen
2. Tom Boonen
3. Thor Hushovd

I love Hushovd and I’m rooting for him to win the Green. I also think on a straight sprint, he’d beat these two guys. But Lotto has really as a team devoted to McEwen. They are an average team at best, but they know their role: get McEwen every intermediate sprint out there. Credit Agricole is honor bound to pretend Chritophe Moreau’s gonna contend in the GC, which means less support for Hushovd. CA’s lack of focus cost Hushovd already.

Boonen’s a chic pick, as is his teammate Michael Rogers in the GC, but Quick Step’s a year away. It’s a young team, so this year will give them some valuable experience about what being a Tour contender is about. It rarely goes well the first time.

King of the Mountains

JASON:

The pick

1. Juan Garate
2. Alejandro Valverde
3. Christophe Moreau

Valverde would be the favorite, but I’m not sure he’ll try, so I’ll go with Garate, who is a good climber and actually says he wants to win the polka dot jersey. I guess Moreau will flirt with the idea of going for it again, but it could just as easily be Vinokourov taking 3^rd on accident.

STEPHEN:

The pick

1. Roberto Heras
2. Iban Mayo
3. Christophe Moreau

I think we might have some really heavy hitters going after the dots. Heras is having a miserable year, as is the entire Euskatel team. Both could change their fortunes by lowering the aim in the Tour on winning the climbs instead of trying to beat Armstrong. Let’s face it, if Mayo couldn’t win it last year with a course specifically designed for him, he’s not gonna win this year. He’s got to be thinking he missed his shot at yellow.

Heras, mired in a pretty awful slump, can tune up for the Vuelta in style. If Mayo and Heras are far enough back, Armstrong will let them climb unmolested. So tank the first week, fellas.

Team Previews

Discovery

JASON: First, I think it is amusing that OLN has to advertise for the Discovery Channel for 3 weeks. This team is loaded. There is speculation that this team is better than any previous USPS teams. Well, the additions of Savoldelli and Popovych give more GC riders, but I’d rather have Ekimov to drive the peloton. Eki is also a huge engine in the team time trial. Without Eki, more pressure is on Padrnos, Hincapie, and Noval. The first two are solid; the third had trouble in his debut last year. Still, this is an excellent team, and no one has a better trio of climbing domestiques than Azevedo, Beltran, and Ruberia. Some guy named Lance is on this team too.

STEPHEN: The big advantage they have is the clearly defined leader. There’s no confusion about goals, its all about Lance. There’s just no chance that Azevedo or Rubiera will try and win this thing on their own, though they are able to compete for a podium finish. But they put the individual stuff behind the team goal. And in that vein, let’s give some love to Hincapie, Lance’s reliable domestique. Seriously, this guy has been working his ass off for Lance on every one of those Tour wins.

T-Mobile (Telekom)

JASON: The rumor is that Kloden is out of shape, so they expect to back either Ullrich or Vinokourov, whoever is stronger. Guerini, Kessler, Nardello and Sevilla make this a ridiculously deep team. Obviously, they left Zabel home to focus on the yellow jersey. OK, enough pussyfooting around, I’ll come out & say it: Ullrich is not the strongest man on this team. He’s great, and a threat to win, but Vino is stronger. Also, the team management is poor. For years they have come to Tour with no defined leader or strategy. They’ll land at least on man on the podium, but that’s in spite of, not because of their management.

STEPHEN: My heart goes out to Ullrich, who had the misfortune of riding against the Big Mig and Lance. He’s an all-time great, but lacks the Tour wins because of Lance’s dominance. So there’s this pity factor in almost all analysis of Ullrich, you can just feel people rooting for him to win one because he deserves it. Well, tough noogies. Because Vino is better in the here and now. Kloden’s taken a step backwards from last year’s breakout Tour, which means Vino will establish himself as the biggest threat to Lance. Nardello hasn’t done anything involving lots of his own blood in awhile, he must be mellowing.

CSC

JASON: Do we love this team, or what? Ivan Basso is their GC man. Sastre and Zabriskie are stage win threats. Julich and Voigt are fine domestiques. No threat for the green jersey, but a contender in everything else, including the team time. Too bad the left of Jakob Piil.

STEPHEN: Leaving Piil off is a tough blow. Piil’s not a great rider, but he’s super-aggressive, and he was a one-man wrecking crew last year. And it’s not like Luke Roberts is a young rider looking for his shot, he’s a 28 road pursuit rider. It’s like they went out of their way to screw Piil. Basso is an absolute stud.

Gerolsteiner

JASON: This could be the year I stop putting them down as a one trick pony. That’s because Levi Leipheimer joins Georg Totschnig. They could have two finish in the top 10, with an outside chance at the podium.

STEPHEN: Totschnig is a good rider, but he’s maxed out on his potential. And his Tour de Suisse was not encouraging. Is there anyone who thinks he can actually win this thing? And I’m ready to jump off the Leipheimer bandwagon. They can compete for the podium. Great. But aren’t teams in this to win? There’s a limited window sometimes.

Illes Balears (Banesto)

JASON: This is not the B-team. Mancebo, Karpets, and Valverde could probably win the team competition if their other 6 teammates rode the autobus. Valverde is probably going easy with the Vuelta in mind, but maybe he’ll aim for the mountains jersey or stage wins. Karpets & Mancebo are top-10 caliber and outside shots at the podium.

STEPHEN: Speaking of limited windows. How’s that post-Indurain world going? It’s taken them a decade to crawl back into contention, and even now they have only an outside shot in Mancebo. But at least they are in the conversation.

Phonak

JASON: Santiago Botero has returned from the dead, winning a mountain stage and a time trial in the Dauphine Libere. Oscar Pereiro and Floyd Landis give them a solid core. They had a terrible doping problem last year, but the team goes on.

STEPHEN: I can’t rationally talk about Tyler Hamilton. He was my favorite cyclist, and now he’s the new Richard Virenque. The team has actually done well this year, and they stand first in the ProTour standings right now. But the Tour’s gonna be tough on them. They should do fine, but they aren’t riding to win it all.

Liquigas

JASON: They were great in the Giro, but this is the Tour, so they’ll make a point to be half-assed. Garzelli is no longer a threat post-drug suspension. At least they have Magnus Backstedt, who won’t win anything, but is fun to watch because he is a giant.

STEPHEN: I’ll give the UCI credit, the ProTour has really prevented teams from taking whole races off. It meant a terrific Giro, and it should mean a great Tour. Liquigas isn’t exactly dumping the Tour like they have in the past. DiLuca seems honestly injured and Garzelli’s their top Grand Tour guy. The Italians are actually showing up to race.

Liberty

JASON: Well, they have to do better than last year. Will Heras be a factor at all? Joseba Beloki is no threat to win, but we’ll call it a victory if he finishes. The crash in 2003 could have ended his career. He quit the Giro two months ago. I hope he can make it to Paris.

STEPHEN: The fact Beloki can even ride is amazing. But the collapse of Heras is amazing, but not in a good way. He just hasn’t been the same since leaving the Posties.

Rabobank

JASON: Our Dutch boys have been in decline the last few years, but signing Denis Menchov should be invigorating. He’s their only threat for a jersey, but they do have a few former stage winners on the squad, including clumsy oaf Erik Dekker.

STEPHEN: I have Stage 13 in our annual pool of when does Erik Dekker crash out? I love the Dutch boys, but they can’t climb at all and they won’t contend for any jersey. This team is built for the classics, not the Tour. Menchov’s a top ten threat and Rasmussen can climb a bit. It’s a solid team, but nothing great.

Bougues Telekom (Brioches)

JASON: Do they try to get unpronounceable names? I’m just going to call them “Bogus.” Everyone on the roster is average at best. They do have last year’s hero, Thomas Voeckler, but do you expect him to have nearly as good a tour as he did last year?

STEPHEN: No. Voeckler’s ride was a fluke. Rous and Brochard are solid, and they won’t embarrass themselves.

Credit Agricole

JASON: Thor Hushovd has the best chance of winning the green jersey of any rider not named McEwen. Plus, they have Jaan Kirsipuu, who is no bad sprinter either. Will Christophe Moreau go for the King of the Mountains, or will he revert to his old yellow jersey pipe dream?

STEPHEN: You got to think he’s settled into the Richard Virenque career path of trying only for dots. I like Kirsipuu a lot, and Thor’s a bad man. McEwen’s better than both of them, but has the disadvantage of a lousy team. CA gives them a chance of winning the Green by virtue of team strength.

Cofidis

JASON: They had better hope Sylvain Chavanel is ready to ride with the big boys. David Moncoutie is decent, and there is Stuart O’Grady too, but he hasn’t done much in a while. It could be a bad year for Cofidis. Maybe they shouldn’t have cancelled Lance Armstrong’s contract in 1997.

STEPHEN: Not one of their brighter moves. Remember when they were players on the Tour? A decent team, but with no real shot at anything.

Domina Vacanze

JASON: About 6 years ago Wladimir Belli finished in the top 10. Sergey Honchar is capable of doing it this year. Aside from that this team doesn’t bring much.

STEPHEN: They aspire to mediocrity. They would kill for Cofidis’ level of sort-of-accomplishment. How depressing is that? They don’t even have the excuse that they are built for classics. They are not.

Davitamon—Lotto

JASON: Yes, they exist to win the green jersey for Robbie McEwen. He actually has lead out men on this team too. In fact, with Fred Rodriguez, Axel Merckx, Cadel Evans, and Mario Aerts on the team, they might have someone other than McEwen win a stage.

STEPHEN: McEwen should have dumped this team two years ago. Do they have compromising pictures of his family or something? With Hushovd’s leadout, he’d be a cinch to win.

Euskaltel

JASON: Has Iban Mayo learned to do a time trial yet? The rule changes help him: there is only one long time trial, and the team time trial has been watered down to reduce the losses. But he starts the Tour down 4 minutes to Armstrong because there is a 55 km time trial at the end of this thing. Landaluze won the Dauphine, so he could make more noise in the Tour. Euskaltel has a pattern of good year/bad year. Last year was really bad. Try to win in the mountains, guys.

STEPHEN: The greatest thing about Lance is that the Tour organizers redesign the course and the rules every year in order to make it harder. And he wins anyway. Even with the decreased importance of time trials, Mayo won’t beat Lance. It will not happen. And your boys in orange have awful this season.

Fassa Bortolo

JASON: Petacchi isn’t even starting this Tour. This team is only showing up because the sponsor would get ticked if the biggest team in the world didn’t show up for the premier event. Maybe someone will sneak into a breakaway and get a stage win. But do they really care?

STEPHEN: Well, given the new point system, they have to care. But I’m gonn miss mocking Petacchi.

FDJ

JASON: A team of average riders with a couple decent sprinters in Cooke & McGee. Will they have a great Tour like in 2003, or a pitiful one like in 2004?

STEPHEN: Give them credit. They went from marginal French team getting a charity bid to a legit tour team. They aren’t great, but they are a legit peleton team. Sometimes you have to be proud of those small achievements.

Lampre

JASON: A lot like Fassa—they are a big team showing up to a gunfight with an empty magazine. Simoni is a last minute scratch. They don’t bring much to the party.

STEPHEN: Simoni’s scratch kills them. As does Cunego’s. No team is hurt more by scratches.

Quick Step

JASON: If Tom Boonen continues to improve like he did in the last two Tours, he’ll push McEwen for the green jersey. Michael Rogers may be the real deal. He beat Ullrich in the Tour of Switzerland.

STEPHEN: But still didn’t win it (Gonzalez Jiminez did). But yeah, Quick Step is a team on the rise. Rogers is the best young rider out there, and Boonen won’t win the Green this year, but he will soon.

Saunier

JASON: Juan Garate rode well in the Giro and says he’ll try to win the King of the Mountains. The rest of the team is mediocre at best. They have an American, Chris Horner, which means OLN will give them a lot of TV time.

STEPHEN: No chance. None. Expect to hear lots about Horner’s fifth place Tour de Suisse.

AG2r

JASON: Jaan Kirsipuu used to be their man, now it’s Jean-Patrick Nazon. He’s a good contender for the green jersey and stage wins. Aside from that, they don’t have much to be excited about.

STEPHEN: Another marginal French team which somehow made themselves a decent team. They can sprint, which means they’ll be a factor throughout the Tour, if only as a lurker for the Green.