Saturday, July 02, 2005

Stage 1: God Bless America!


Get used to it, Jan (picture from VeloNews)
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Four riders in the top six hailed from the goold old US of A. Four. So you could say it was a good day for Americans in the Tour. Hell, it might be the best day Americans have ever had on the Tour, and that's saying something. Four of six!

Hell, Bobby Julich and Levi Leipheimer were lurking at 11th and 14th, not that far off the pace. This day could not have gone any better for the United States. We focus on Lance so much, we kind of forget about the rest of the Americans out there. Let's take a second for some good old fashioned nationalism: we're pretty damn good. The US is third overall in the National rankings of the UCI, behind only Spain and Italy. Really, when Armstrong started winning the Tour, the overall success of US cycling we're currently enjoying was unimaginable. Boys and girls, the US has arrived.

I'm also genuinely happy for David Zabriskie. He not only won the stage, he set the record for the fastest ITT in Tour history. Just when we thought no one would ever catch Greg LeMond (keeping with the American theme). Zabriskie never really got a shot on US Postal, and he was let go in the offseason. Things seem to working out on CSC, eh? He's ineligible for the white jersey by a few months, so this is about the only hardware he can really expect to win. But if you're gonna win a stage, make it the first one so you get that day in yellow.

OK, enough with the niceties, let's get down to business.

Remember all of that crap about Armstrong not being that fit for the Tour? Well, we cleared that rumor up real quick. He's ready. He finished two seconds behind Zabriskie, but a full 51 seconds ahead of the third-placed Vinokourov. So he put almost a full minute between himself and the field. Welcome to reality. Iban Mayo's already out of the GC, 3 minutes down. He's not making that up. People like Totschnig and Heras can lie to themselves and pretend they have a podium shot, but Mayo can't even indulge in that fantasy. He's toast.

Two themes we hit on before the Tour really came to the forefront: Lance doesn't just beat you physically, he crushes your spirit; and T-Mobile is dysfunctional. Let's look at both.

Spirits Crushed
A full minute. How is that possible? The course wasn't long enough for anyone to gain a minute on the real contenders. I mean, Vino had a great day, and he only took 30 seconds from Basso. He's in third place, and has to figure out how to get a minute back from Armstrong. We're a day in, and the entire field has to be thinking, "here we go again." Of course, the rider with his spirit most ground into dust (other than Mayo) is Jan Ullrich, who suffered the indignity of getting passed by Armstrong. No one else got that special extra kick to the groin. Which leads nicely into...

T-Mobile Is Dysfunctional
The outgoing manager is ripping you in the press and it seems he's not just whistling Dixie. Godefroot has now told anyone who will listen that Ullrich is only the captain for commercial reasons, he had to keep Zabel off to make Ullrich happy, and that he thinks both Vino and Kloden are better. And he's probably right.

We're enjoyed a solid month of stories that run like this:

"Jan is ready this time. No, really. Stop laughing. He's in shape. I told you, stop laughing. It's not funny. We're serious this time. Lance is in big trouble. No. Huge trouble. We're surprised he's even showing up. Jan looks that good. Really. He's amazing. Will you please stop laughing?"

Well, he's not ready. And he's not going to beat Lance. But this might not be good news for T-Mobile, as usually they harbor the Ullrich Delusion for a two weeks before admitting Vino or Kloden has a better shot. They might realize right away they need to ride for Vino, which means they won't waste the time and energy riding for Ullrich. Which is no good for Lance. We identified Vino's biggest weakness as his team, and maybe, just maybe, that is now a strength. Let's see how they ride the flat stages.

1 Comments:

Blogger uberschuck said...

I don't think the guys at Telekom are going to bail on Ullrich yet. The gap to Vino is 15 seconds. If they've refused to acknowledge that Vino's the man all this time, they're not going to reverse themselves after 20 km of racing.

Oh, my favorite Zabel quote ripping Telekom is this one..."When I become second or third it is a loss, yet other people are celebrated for that."

Before you declare the contenders dead in the water, understand that you need to judge this race as the ITT, not the prologue. Lance always puts this much time on his competitors in the time trials, usually more. There isn't going to be another ITT for 20 days. Lance often has this sort of cushion going into the mountains on the strength of the ITT. This year that advantage is decreased slightly because we are dealing with such a short time trial.

Counterpoint: the emphasis of this being day 1 may be worth as much as the extra time he'd take in a long time trial.

In any event, the only other chance to get time on them is in the TTT, which is sissified in the scoring. So, Lance will probably enter the mountains with a lead on his rivals that isn't abnormally large.

1:16 AM  

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