Pickin and Grinnin

JASON: First a couple things about the course. I hate the way they neuter the team time trial. The time gaps are determined by place, not time. The second place team loses 20 seconds to the first (unless they finish within 20s). Specific maximum time gaps are assigned to each place. The 12^th team loses no more than a minute; the last team loses no more than 2:50. Last year USPS won this event by a mile. Why try so hard again this year? This system discourages teams from putting forth their best effort. But Iban Mayo has to be happy.

The other big change is that the prologue and first time trial have been morphed into one 19 km time trial to open the Tour. It’s not a prologue, just a short stage 1 time trial. The only other individual time trial is in the penultimate stage. This really hurts the elite time trialists like Ullrich, Armstrong, and Botero. Again, Iban Mayo and Roberto Heras must be happy. I don’t like this change, but I can excuse it because the guys who design the course are just trying to throw in something different. It’s simply a course that doesn’t favor time trialists. There used to be courses with 3 ITTs. Hopefully this is just a silly variation and not a trend.

Now to the picks…

STEPHEN: When will the organizing committee ever learn? You cannot stop Lance via tinkering with the course or jiggering the rules? Given that this is the last chance for someone to beat Lance, this change in course again to his disadvantage really hurts his competitors the most. If they beat Lance, it is because of the rules committee and if they fail, it is with every advantage in the world. It takes something away from the honest pursuit of Armstrong.

The Tour is timeless. It’s one thing to change the course up, the course is slightly different every year, but these massive changes aimed at one guy makes the Tour look silly. It should be bigger than one rider, even Lance.

Yellow jersey

JASON:

The pick

1. Lance Armstrong
2. Alexandre Vinokourov
3. Levi Leipheimer

Call me boring, but I think Armstrong wins again. People criticize his performance to date—no wins in 2005, but I’m not concerned. It’s not important that he wins the Tour of Georgia and the Dauphine. It’s only important that he’s near the front. In the Dauphine he was fourth, one minute of the winner. A year ago he was fourth, two minutes behind, and I think he did OK in the 2004 Tour. The team is still great; he’s still elite in both the mountains and the time trials. He prepares for the course better than anyone. He’s been invincible for so long that he intimidates his competitors—Ullrich: "Lance has dominated the Tour for the last six years and whoever beats him is going to be the greatest." Vinokourov "We are going there with the intention of turning the heat on Armstrong and hopefully force him to crack. But the guy is exceptionally strong and motivated. It is hard to imagine him cracking. He will be in top form." Why wouldn’t I think he’s going to win again?

Alexandre Vinokourov has the best shot at beating Armstrong, but the problem is that he has to convince his team to work for him first. So, if I’m Vino, I attack Ullrich on stage 9—the first mountain stage. Ullrich is always a bit weak on the first mountain anyway. Ullrich is a better man in the time trial, but with only a 19 km TT prior to the mountains, he will probably have no more than 20 seconds on Vino. When Vino takes 2 minutes out of him on stage 9, even Telekom will know who their leader is. The question about Vino is will he have the legs in the third week? I think Vino will wear yellow, but Lance will take it from him in the last week.

I’ll take a sleeper pick to finish the podium. Levi Leipheimer. I think Ullrich and Basso are more likely, but Leipheimer is riding well. His problem is that he always has one bad day in the mountains (aside from the time he broke his hip in a crash). If he can avoid the 4-minute wipe out, he’ll be in good shape.

STEPHEN:

The pick

1. Lance Armstrong
2. Alexandre Vinokourov
3. Santiago Botero

Every year, we look for a reason to pick against Lance and come up empty. Why should this year be different? There is no reason to think anyone can beat him until proven otherwise. Armstrong specializes in ripping out the hearts of his competitors. He doesn’t just beat you physically, he wears you down mentally and spiritually. There’s only two riders in the entire field who honestly believe they beat Armstrong: Vino and Basso. Both have other factors working against them.

Vino has the disorganization of T-Mobile. They go into this Tour not sure whether to ride for Vino or Ullrich, but early indications are they’ll line up for the longtime boss, which is precisely the wrong strategy. Ullrich is past his prime, and in his prime he couldn’t beat Lance. Why do we think he’ll start now? I think even Ullrich knows he can’t do it.

Basso has the problem of fatigue. While we did praise him for gutting out the Giro with a nasty case of the flu, perhaps the wisest course would have been to abandon and save strength for the Tour. Actually, that makes me admire Basso’s tenacity even more. He had a ready-made excuse, yet he still refused to give in. Mental toughness is key, but Basso has a high chance of bonking.

Which leaves me a random third rider. Why not Botero? He’s been wildly inconsistent in the past, but he’s riding as if a ten-ton brick has been lifted off his shoulders (its called getting the hell away from T-Mobile). Phonak’s shown resilience in the past, and they’d love to put those drug convictions in the rear view mirror. I’m not convinced Landis is anything more than a really, really good domestique. He was incredible last year, but suddenly he’s a GC contender? Supporting Botero, he could get someone else to the podium.

I should also mention Menchov, who’s a good young rider and will have a pretty good domestique in Rasmussen. He’s a real wild card in all of this. But I’m such a sucker for Rabobank.

Green jersey

JASON:

The pick

1. Robbie McEwen
2. Thor Hushovd
3. Tom Boonen

I’d like to see Thor Hushovd win just because I like his name. Thor can beat McEwen, he just can’t beat him more than McEwen beats him. Tom Boonen is almost as good as they are. Also, the course leaves a lot of points in the last week—pretty much the opposite of last year. Maybe some of these guys will lose their sprinting legs over the mountains.

STEPHEN:

The pick

1. Robbie McEwen
2. Tom Boonen
3. Thor Hushovd

I love Hushovd and I’m rooting for him to win the Green. I also think on a straight sprint, he’d beat these two guys. But Lotto has really as a team devoted to McEwen. They are an average team at best, but they know their role: get McEwen every intermediate sprint out there. Credit Agricole is honor bound to pretend Chritophe Moreau’s gonna contend in the GC, which means less support for Hushovd. CA’s lack of focus cost Hushovd already.

Boonen’s a chic pick, as is his teammate Michael Rogers in the GC, but Quick Step’s a year away. It’s a young team, so this year will give them some valuable experience about what being a Tour contender is about. It rarely goes well the first time.

King of the Mountains

JASON:

The pick

1. Juan Garate
2. Alejandro Valverde
3. Christophe Moreau

Valverde would be the favorite, but I’m not sure he’ll try, so I’ll go with Garate, who is a good climber and actually says he wants to win the polka dot jersey. I guess Moreau will flirt with the idea of going for it again, but it could just as easily be Vinokourov taking 3^rd on accident.

STEPHEN:

The pick

1. Roberto Heras
2. Iban Mayo
3. Christophe Moreau

I think we might have some really heavy hitters going after the dots. Heras is having a miserable year, as is the entire Euskatel team. Both could change their fortunes by lowering the aim in the Tour on winning the climbs instead of trying to beat Armstrong. Let’s face it, if Mayo couldn’t win it last year with a course specifically designed for him, he’s not gonna win this year. He’s got to be thinking he missed his shot at yellow.

Heras, mired in a pretty awful slump, can tune up for the Vuelta in style. If Mayo and Heras are far enough back, Armstrong will let them climb unmolested. So tank the first week, fellas.