Stage 13: Total Failure

It's almost been a day and I still can't rationally talk about today's stage. I watched the stage with Jason, and there was a moment when I simply losy the ability to speak. I was completely flabbergasted by the sheer epic stupidity of it all. But before we get to that, let's talk about the good things.

Jens Voigt is a bad man. If cycling were the sort of sport which named awards after athletes, it would call the most aggressive rider the Jens Voigt Award. When there was a break, once you saw Voigt, you knew it was going to work. He's the patron saint of breakaways. He's not a gifted sprinter, he can't climb, and he's not all that loyal of a domestique. What he is, is the guttiest rider on the Tour. Pereiro had him dead to rights on the final sprint, but for some reason he couldn't pass him. There was no logical reason for Voigt to win that final sprint, but he did. Because he is all heart.

OK, back to Landis and Phonak. Stage 13 was a failure on three levels: morally, tactically, and strategically. There's no way to justify giving up 30 minutes to Pereiro. Absolutely none.

First off, there's a certain honor in wearing the maillot jaune. Ordinary riders become great riders, and great riders become transcendent ones. There's a certain obligation to defending the jersey. And while it can be forgivable to give up the yellow jersey in order to win it in the end, that does not mean giving up the jersey to another contender who was dead to rights when the day began. Giving up half an hour to a guy down by 28 minutes when the day began is an inexcusible thing. It's a total betrayal.

It can't even be justified as good tactics. I talked yesterday about Landis letting other contenders up off the map. He did it with Kloden and then Popovych. This wasn't letting Pereiro off the mat, this was rising him from the dead. You can't let contenders back into things. It's one thing to give up 30 minutes to Jens Voigt, it's quite another to give up that time to Pereiro.

What the hell are they conserving their energy for? That big climb in which they will all protect Landis? There's only one rider on the team who can even pretend he could help Landis in the Alps, and that's Merckx. The only time Phonak can conceivably help their leader is during these flat stages. They can at least theoretically control the peloton and, at the very least, keep the other contenders at bay. Allowing a break with a contender on two consecutive days? That's just poor. But allowing a break, any beak, to reach twenty minutes at this stage of the Tour is completely inexcusable. The fact Pereiro was in the break makes it hundred time worse. I don't even know how that happens.

Mostly, this is a failure of strategy. Discovery won Tours for Lance by absolutely asserting their will in the peloton. they were the strongest team and everyone knew it. Any show of weakness was quickly quashed. Phonak's tactics didn't just show weakness, they put an excalmation point on it. At one point today, Rabobank actually started to drive the peloton. Apparently, Menchov didn't want to lose too much time to the leader. Phonak might as well put up a sign asking teams to attack them at will. If they can't protect him on a flat stage, they certainly can't protect him in the mountains. Landis shied away from the bright glare of leading the race. I'm sure there are other riders who wouldn't mind so much.

Which brings us to Rabobank. They were the strongest team in the mountains. They were the strongest team today. Menchov is sitting in fourth place, but he has not displayed the weakness of the three riders ahead of him. He has the most powerful team in this Tour behind him. Right now, they have to be giving high fives over the team dinner. This is Denis Menchov's race to lose. Phonak has demonstrated they can't control this race, Rabobank has.

Phonak has dared Rabobank to take control. Why show this much weakness?

Up with Voigt! Down with Phonak!

Hooray for one of our favorite cyclists, Jens Voigt. As is his style, he suffered through a long breakaway to get a stage win, and his CSC team could really use it after practially everything for them in this Tour had gone wrong so far.

The other big development is that Phonak gave away Landis' yellow jersey. Oscar Pereiro made up a 28 minute gap on Landis to take the overall lead. Phonak is saying that they decided to give up the lead to take pressure off the team, and really, that's a good idea because this team is afraid of pressure. My assessment of their ability to defend the lead and control the race is simple: they stink. Landis is stronger than Pereiro in the mountains and the time trial, so he's likely to overtake him. Really, it may be to their benefit to relieve themselves of the burden of the yellow jersey.

This definitely makes the race more interesting, but it's time for me to rip Phonak severely.

Giving up 30 minutes in 1 stage is ridiculous. And it's not like when USPS gave up 30 minutes to non-contenders like O'Grady and Andrei Kivilev in 2001. They gave away 30 minutes to Oscar Pereiro, who finished 10th in each of the last 2 Tours. For the second consecutive day Phonak gave a mulligan to a proven climber. Just because a guy was bad one day in the Pyrenees doesn't mean he can't ride in the Alps. It's unlikely, but why tempt fate? Why give a guy motivation?

I don't expect Pererio or Popovych to make the final podium, but there is a bigger problem here. There is no reason for any other team to respect Phonak. They refuse to defend the jersey and control the race. They have no authority on the race like Disco/USPS did for Lance. Even when Lance would give up the jersey in week 1, everyone knew his team still controlled the race, they were just waiting for the mountains; his team was a proven juggernaut. Phonak could have won respect by limiting the breakaway to 10 minutes or so. It would show they have control yet still show that they weren't worried about Pereiro.

Phonak is not proven as a team that can control anything. They intimidate no one. They have loudly declared to the peloton that they are weak and ineffective. Rabobank and Telekom dictated the race in the one big mountain showdown--they have more control than Phonak. Even freakin' AG2r defended the jersey! When we get to the Alps, Menchov will attack, and Rabobank will support him. Menchov has every reason to believe this is his race to win. It's a good thing for Floyd that he can climb.

Redemption from Popovych

There’s a reason why we say Johan Bruyneel is the best manager in the Tour, and it’s not because we’re on the OLN payroll (we're not!). Yesterday was a disaster for Discovery, but Bruyneel has taken his lemons and made lemonade. After Yaroslav Popovych won stage 12 he said that just before the start Bruyneel told him “Okay, now you go and win a stage.” Popovych beat the peloton to the line by over 4 minutes, taking him to 10th overall and 4:15 behind Floyd Landis’s lead. Yesterday Disco had no GC contender and no stage wins to its name. Today it has both.

Popovych played his hand perfectly. The attack was launched just after one breakaway had been run down, but with nearly 100 km still to go. That’s a good time to catch the peloton in a lazy mood. Popovych was helped by the fact that two of the other three men in the breakaway were highly motivated to see their attack survive—Freire was chasing points, and the Frenchman Le Mevel, wanted to be a national hero on Bastille Day. Popovych knew that he couldn’t out-sprint Freire or Ballan, so he attacked repeatedly in the final 10 km to drop them and avoid a sprint. Perfect tactics.

Popovych was also helped by mistakes from the guys leading the peloton. McEwen wanted to chase down Freire, but Evans and the other guys in Lotto didn’t consider it a priority. As a result Freire picked up 11 points on McEwen today. His lead is still pretty big, but giving away points can’t please McEwen.

The other mistake was by Phonak in letting the breakaway get nearly 5 minutes ahead. Popovych was out of contention, but now they’ve let him back in with 3 big days in the Alps still to come. And don’t be fooled by people saying Phonak did a good job driving the peloton. Know how many teammates Landis had with him when he crossed the line? Two. Yeah, on a flat finish they only had two guys cross the line with the yellow jersey that they are “defending.”

It's a good thing for Floyd that he can climb.

Stage 11: Landis, Menchov, Evans, Sastre

The pretenders are exposed and the contenders are apparent. The elite climbers at the end of stage 11 were Denis Menchov, Levi Leipheimer, Floyd Landis, Carlos Sastre, and Cadel Evans. These guys occupy 4 of the top 5 spots in GC and are within 2 minutes of each other. Leipheimer is almost 6 minutes back because of his crummy time trial last Saturday.

Rabobank: I didn’t know what to make of Menchov before the Tour started, but now it is clear. He thinks he can win, and his team thinks so too. Menchov was very strong and none of the attacks could shake him. Rabobank used Lance Armstrong’s tactics. They had Rasmussen and Boogerd deplete the field to just a few elite climbers. Michael Boogerd was outstanding at leading the elite climbers on the final climb—an outstanding effort.

Telekom: When Telekom started making pace on the penultimate climb the race changed. They put a ton of pressure on the field and dropped a lot of riders. For a moment, with three of them leading the pack, it looked like they were in charge of the Tour. It turned out to create a problem, as they were all spent by the time they got to the final climb. Why does Telekom make the mistake of attacking on the penultimate climb year after year? The good news for them is that Kloden is clearly their leader (although that might not be good for him). Kloden lost significant time to Landis. He’s down, but not out.

Discovery: Disco has no GC threat. The three big names all lived up to their drawbacks. Popovych looked like he’s still not ready to be a team leader. Savoldelli looked like a guy who peaked in May for the Giro. Hincapie looked like a domestique. Asevedo was best placed, but 4 minutes back. No one on this team is getting on the podium, so they should reconsider their goals and think about stage wins.

AG2r: They did an admirable job driving the peloton and Dessel showed a lot of guts defending his yellow jersey. Moreau is still riding well, though behind the contenders. This is their breakout Tour, and they’ve got reasons to be proud.

Sastre, Evans, and Leipheimer had no team support on the day, but it didn’t matter. Landis had none either, but now that he is in yellow, Phonak will be obliged to ride at the front. But Rabobank definitely has the personnel to control the race in the mountains, so we can expect to see them working for Menchov again in the Alps. Unless another team steps up for the pacemaking, the race could unfold with Rabobank whittling the field down for Menchov, leaving a small group of isolated team leaders to attach each other. That would be fun.

As for now, Landis is the man to beat. Menchov is his most important rival. Both have been great in the time trial and mountains. Cadel Evans is right behind Menchov and must be closely marked. He never attacks, which must keep his opponents guessing.

It appears I gave Iban Mayo too much credit when I predicted he would not abandon the race until stage 16. I was wrong; he decided to quit in front of the home crowd in stage 11.

Stage 10: No One Makes a Move

Before we talk about today’s stage, I wanted to quickly address something in velonews a few days ago. There was a little fluff piece in which Cipo says McEwen is really good. Well, thanks. But it’s a nice article and I wouldn’t comment on it were it not for this line:

“Mario Cipolinni, arguably the greatest sprinter of modern Tour de France history.”

I’m sure you COULD argue that. I mean, you could also argue the moon is made of cheese. You’d just be wrong.

Cipo’s won four stages in two Tours, neither of which he finished. Nothing personal, that doesn’t even get you on the radar of best sprinter ever. That puts you behind guys like Thor Hushovd, who is a good sprinter, but no one’s calling him the best ever. The best sprinter of the modern era is clearly Erik Zabel. Arguing for Cipo is like arguing that Joseba Beloki is the best GC man of the last decade. Sure, he’s good, but there’s this Lance Armstrong guy.

Don’t misconstrue this as a slam on velonews. Their cycling coverage is consistently awesome. I’m just picking nits.

OK, stage 10. What a waste.

We wait a week and a half for this? This was a stage with an HC climb in which Erik Friggin’ Zabel finished ninth. That should never happen on a mountain stage. Two riders in the top five of the green jersey standings should not be in the top ten on a stage with an HC climb. It’s supposed to be a day for climbers and GC men, not a glorified rolling stage. I’m pissed. It’s one thing for an underdog to win the stage, but none of the contenders ever left the peloton. Except for Rasmussen for a few minutes to pick up a few climbing points.

Wow. I’m cranky today. So let’s pass out some praise. I said before the Tour that if Agributel even had a rider finish top 20 in any stage, it will be a successful Tour. Stage 10 was the first time we saw Agributel in the top 20 of any stage: Mercado won it. I really enjoy it when the small teams have their moment in the sun. Ag2r, hardly a powerhouse themselves, just missed out on the stage, but get to solace themselves with the yellow jersey. So Cyril Dessel gets a day in yellow, which is pretty damn cool.

Mercado who?

Stage 9

image from www.letour.com

The bunch sprint.

There were several things to notice in the sprint for Stage 9 today. Tom Boonen may be fast, but his timing is off. That’s why he hasn’t won a stage yet. It looked like he was so eager to win today that he jumped the gun. The 3 guys who beat were all riding in his line in the final 200 meters. First came Zabel, who was well-positioned, but simply lacks the firepower in his legs to ride away from everyone. Next came Freire, who probably had the best timing of everyone on this sprint, hence the win. Third was McEwen, who was boxed in, but shot the gap as soon as Zabel & Freire opened it. It was too late by then, but McEwen had such a quick acceleration that he almost overtook Freire. But take another look at the replay. McEwen made a very wide cut to get around the other 3. It’s the type of cut that gets sprinters disqualified for riding into anther cyclist’s line—it’s illegal because it’s a great way to cause a crash. Fortunately for McEwen, he was too fast to cut anyone off.

And if you think Boonen took off too soon, don’t even look for Thor Hushovd.

13 seconds.

It doesn’t really qualify as a shake-up in the GC, but Denis Menchov was caught napping in the rush to the finish line and finished behind the lead pack. He lost 13 seconds to the likes of Gonchar, Kloden, Savoldelli, Landis, Sastre, Hincapie, et al. Not a big deal, but it makes things a tiny bit tighter for Menchov.

Levi Leipheimer finished 159^th, but was given a time of 26 seconds behind Freire, which I presume means he was caught in a crash or flat in the last 3 km, it’s just that kind of Tour for Levi.

Iban Mayo was also in Menchov’s group, so he lost 13 seconds too. It’s not surprising that Mayo lost track of the peloton.

The road goes up.

Finally, we’re headed to the mountains. The first big climbs often catch guys when they are not ready, but since the last climb is 40 km from the finish, there probably will not be a big GC showdown in stage 10. Of course, the last 40 km are descent, and there’s one 2-time Giro champions who excels at the downhill in this race. The stage is ideal for Disco to set tempo up the mountains and then let Savoldelli fly downhill. It’s more likely that they’ll play it safe and conserve energy for Stage 11.

But it’s a lock that someone will make a dash for the polka dot jersey tomorrow.

Rest Day: A Tale of Three Teams

The last few Tours have been dominated by three teams: CSC, T-Mobile, and Discovery. They have been the teams which have dominated the peloton these last few years, and they were all prepared for the post-Lance world. Discovery had a series of contenders ready to take the mantle, and CSC and T-Mobile hinged their chances on Basso and Ullrich, both of whom have been suspended from this Tour.

So it's strange to see the Big Three's very different Tours so far.

THE GOOD: T-Mobile
We've been pretty critical of T-Mobile. I've called them Team Dysfunction, and I think a lot of it centered on Ullrich being mentally destroyed by Lance, being backed by a team that consistently comes up with contenders who have to pull back so Ullrich can make his run. These other riders know they can win, they've always known it. Rogers and Kloden in particular. Losing Ullrich may have been a blessing in disguise.

That said, this isn't the first time T-Mobile has dominated a race. It's not new to see guys in pink all over the top ten (ok, maybe not 4 in the top 6). So it's not like they have found new success. But there is a new swagger that wasn't there before. You get the sense they are no longer just waiting for the moment to self-destruct. And that's the real difference here. Not the level of success, but that there is not the impending sense of doom which Ullrich always provided. Not to pick on Ullrich who is a genuinely great athlete, but T-Mobile being in a better place because of his absence is not a huge surprise to either of us. They were built for this day.

THE BAD: CSC
I don't know how this Tour could have gone worse for Team CSC. Basso, a huge pre-race favorite, got booted before the start. Julich, the obvious second choice, crashed out during the time trial. Zabriskie, their time trial specialist, lost the ITT by 1:57. O'Grady, the team's sprinter, broke his L4 vertebra in Stage 3 and is out of contention. And the team has less stage wins than AG2R (1 to 0). They've held a jersey exactly zero times. We haven't reached the mountains yet, and their Tour is essentially done. It's an unmitigated disaster, unless Carlos Sastre goes insane in the mountains.

THE UGLY: Discovery
For all of the hype surrounding Hincapie, he laid an egg in the time trial. Then again, Popovych and Savoldelli didn't exactly pick up the slack. Three contenders, and they all sit over two minutes out. But it's not just the time, it's the amount of riders between them and the lead. If we consider Landis the real leader at -1:00 in 2nd place, there are 11 riders between Savoldelli and the top contender. And there are other contenders in that group: Rogers, Kloden, Karpets, Evans, Menchov, and Moreau. Sastre and Pereiro are still lurking. That's a lot of riders to leapfrog. It's not just making up time, it's making up places.

Hey, they at least have a day in yellow. They aren't out of things, but they are in the unusual position of coming from behind.