Rest Day: A Tale of Three Teams
The last few Tours have been dominated by three teams: CSC, T-Mobile, and Discovery. They have been the teams which have dominated the peloton these last few years, and they were all prepared for the post-Lance world. Discovery had a series of contenders ready to take the mantle, and CSC and T-Mobile hinged their chances on Basso and Ullrich, both of whom have been suspended from this Tour.
So it's strange to see the Big Three's very different Tours so far.
THE GOOD: T-Mobile
We've been pretty critical of T-Mobile. I've called them Team Dysfunction, and I think a lot of it centered on Ullrich being mentally destroyed by Lance, being backed by a team that consistently comes up with contenders who have to pull back so Ullrich can make his run. These other riders know they can win, they've always known it. Rogers and Kloden in particular. Losing Ullrich may have been a blessing in disguise.
That said, this isn't the first time T-Mobile has dominated a race. It's not new to see guys in pink all over the top ten (ok, maybe not 4 in the top 6). So it's not like they have found new success. But there is a new swagger that wasn't there before. You get the sense they are no longer just waiting for the moment to self-destruct. And that's the real difference here. Not the level of success, but that there is not the impending sense of doom which Ullrich always provided. Not to pick on Ullrich who is a genuinely great athlete, but T-Mobile being in a better place because of his absence is not a huge surprise to either of us. They were built for this day.
THE BAD: CSC
I don't know how this Tour could have gone worse for Team CSC. Basso, a huge pre-race favorite, got booted before the start. Julich, the obvious second choice, crashed out during the time trial. Zabriskie, their time trial specialist, lost the ITT by 1:57. O'Grady, the team's sprinter, broke his L4 vertebra in Stage 3 and is out of contention. And the team has less stage wins than AG2R (1 to 0). They've held a jersey exactly zero times. We haven't reached the mountains yet, and their Tour is essentially done. It's an unmitigated disaster, unless Carlos Sastre goes insane in the mountains.
THE UGLY: Discovery
For all of the hype surrounding Hincapie, he laid an egg in the time trial. Then again, Popovych and Savoldelli didn't exactly pick up the slack. Three contenders, and they all sit over two minutes out. But it's not just the time, it's the amount of riders between them and the lead. If we consider Landis the real leader at -1:00 in 2nd place, there are 11 riders between Savoldelli and the top contender. And there are other contenders in that group: Rogers, Kloden, Karpets, Evans, Menchov, and Moreau. Sastre and Pereiro are still lurking. That's a lot of riders to leapfrog. It's not just making up time, it's making up places.
Hey, they at least have a day in yellow. They aren't out of things, but they are in the unusual position of coming from behind.
So it's strange to see the Big Three's very different Tours so far.
THE GOOD: T-Mobile
We've been pretty critical of T-Mobile. I've called them Team Dysfunction, and I think a lot of it centered on Ullrich being mentally destroyed by Lance, being backed by a team that consistently comes up with contenders who have to pull back so Ullrich can make his run. These other riders know they can win, they've always known it. Rogers and Kloden in particular. Losing Ullrich may have been a blessing in disguise.
That said, this isn't the first time T-Mobile has dominated a race. It's not new to see guys in pink all over the top ten (ok, maybe not 4 in the top 6). So it's not like they have found new success. But there is a new swagger that wasn't there before. You get the sense they are no longer just waiting for the moment to self-destruct. And that's the real difference here. Not the level of success, but that there is not the impending sense of doom which Ullrich always provided. Not to pick on Ullrich who is a genuinely great athlete, but T-Mobile being in a better place because of his absence is not a huge surprise to either of us. They were built for this day.
THE BAD: CSC
I don't know how this Tour could have gone worse for Team CSC. Basso, a huge pre-race favorite, got booted before the start. Julich, the obvious second choice, crashed out during the time trial. Zabriskie, their time trial specialist, lost the ITT by 1:57. O'Grady, the team's sprinter, broke his L4 vertebra in Stage 3 and is out of contention. And the team has less stage wins than AG2R (1 to 0). They've held a jersey exactly zero times. We haven't reached the mountains yet, and their Tour is essentially done. It's an unmitigated disaster, unless Carlos Sastre goes insane in the mountains.
THE UGLY: Discovery
For all of the hype surrounding Hincapie, he laid an egg in the time trial. Then again, Popovych and Savoldelli didn't exactly pick up the slack. Three contenders, and they all sit over two minutes out. But it's not just the time, it's the amount of riders between them and the lead. If we consider Landis the real leader at -1:00 in 2nd place, there are 11 riders between Savoldelli and the top contender. And there are other contenders in that group: Rogers, Kloden, Karpets, Evans, Menchov, and Moreau. Sastre and Pereiro are still lurking. That's a lot of riders to leapfrog. It's not just making up time, it's making up places.
Hey, they at least have a day in yellow. They aren't out of things, but they are in the unusual position of coming from behind.
posted by Poseur at 8:28 PM
2 Comments:
Remember, you can't win the Tour in week 1, but you can lose it. In the case of Basso and Ullrich, well, they lost even before week 1. Julich lost in week 1, and so did Leipheimer. But Sastre, Hincapie, Savoldelli, and Popovych all escaped week 1 without losing. They are fine.
Mountains change everything. That's where the race is won. There isn't one GC contender that you'd think will go through the mountains without losing time to another contender at least 1 day. They are all vulnerable, which is why I think the 4 guys I listed are OK and why I think the yellow jersey is going to be passed around a few more times.
I think you are right. Disco is in a new position for the team, but things aren't hopeless. They are in a pretty good position, just not the great position they are used to.
CSC still has Sastre, but that team just got killed in week one. Though Jens Voigt did ease up on his TT to save energy for the mountains. I like Voigt a lot, and it's for take-one-for-the-team moves like this.
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