Stege 4--note to green jersey contenders--McEwen's the man to beat
All that stuff about parity and things being up for grabs that Stephen wrote about yesterday is true, but maybe Robbie McEwen read it and decided to remind us who’s the man to beat. In a first week with the jerseys being constantly exchanged, McEwen became the first man to win a second stage. Collectively the other green jersey contenders have none (unless you count Hushovd’s prologue win). So, all of a sudden McEwen takes the green jersey and an 11 point lead.
Erik Zabel made a career out of being in the top 10 in every bunch sprint of his life, but today he had a flat tire in the closing stretch, so he got a goose egg on the day. It’s not as though Zabel has the strength to overcome McEwen’s 41 point lead in his legs anymore, so this could kill his chances of winning green.
The next two stages are more of the same. There are a few time bonuses and small climbs, but the teams of the green jersey contenders will probably control the race and set up a bunch finish. The question is, will they continue to trade jabs, or will McEwen win again to get a stranglehold on this race?
In response to a comment posted by Stel on prospects for Carlos Sastre, Jose Rujano, and Iban Mayo:
We like Sastre a lot. He’s strong in the mountains, but he probably planned to ride this Tour as Basso’s domestique, not as a yellow jersey contender. I can see him rising pretty high in the final standings, especially if CSC rallies around him.
Rujano’s a great climber, but he’s a pure climber, and this is a course for a time trialist. I think it would be great if he were to aim for the King of the Mountains and a stage win in the Alps.
Iban Mayo…um a couple years ago we were high on Mayo—winning on Alpe d’Huez does that for your reputation. Since then his stock has gone way down on this blog. Wiping out in the mountains and abandoning the Tour does that for your reputation. He’s never been as strong since 2003. Even if he does have great climbing form, Mayo’s always been bad at the time trial, and with over 100 km of time trialing remaining, he’s got his work cut out for him.
Menchov—Karpets—Popovych. I see lots of potential there. None is an identified team leader at this point, though. If any of them turn in a top time for their team on Saturday’s time trial, then maybe we’ll see them get the green light from their teams to go for yellow.
Erik Zabel made a career out of being in the top 10 in every bunch sprint of his life, but today he had a flat tire in the closing stretch, so he got a goose egg on the day. It’s not as though Zabel has the strength to overcome McEwen’s 41 point lead in his legs anymore, so this could kill his chances of winning green.
The next two stages are more of the same. There are a few time bonuses and small climbs, but the teams of the green jersey contenders will probably control the race and set up a bunch finish. The question is, will they continue to trade jabs, or will McEwen win again to get a stranglehold on this race?
In response to a comment posted by Stel on prospects for Carlos Sastre, Jose Rujano, and Iban Mayo:
We like Sastre a lot. He’s strong in the mountains, but he probably planned to ride this Tour as Basso’s domestique, not as a yellow jersey contender. I can see him rising pretty high in the final standings, especially if CSC rallies around him.
Rujano’s a great climber, but he’s a pure climber, and this is a course for a time trialist. I think it would be great if he were to aim for the King of the Mountains and a stage win in the Alps.
Iban Mayo…um a couple years ago we were high on Mayo—winning on Alpe d’Huez does that for your reputation. Since then his stock has gone way down on this blog. Wiping out in the mountains and abandoning the Tour does that for your reputation. He’s never been as strong since 2003. Even if he does have great climbing form, Mayo’s always been bad at the time trial, and with over 100 km of time trialing remaining, he’s got his work cut out for him.
Menchov—Karpets—Popovych. I see lots of potential there. None is an identified team leader at this point, though. If any of them turn in a top time for their team on Saturday’s time trial, then maybe we’ll see them get the green light from their teams to go for yellow.
posted by uberschuck at 6:16 PM
2 Comments:
I'm working on a memo for Bankruptcy, so I don't have much time today (stupid law school getting in the way of the Tour). but I agree with Jason. McEwen reasserted himself as the badass sprinter, and as long as he doesn't headbutt someone again, I think he'll keep asserting that bad-assery.
I'm watching everyone right now in the GC. I keep a spreadsheet with all of the team's contenders and highest placed rider, and some teams I'm going about 4 riders deep, which is just silly. I have no read right now, particularly with Discovery. I can't shake the feeling that the hyping up of Hincapie is a feint for Popovych or Savoldelli. We'll see.
I also suspect that Disco is going to dance with Popovych. I think the hype on Hincapie is mainly the work of OLN, but I'm sure Johan Bruneyl embraces it to draw attention to Hincapie. I don't think that Bruneyl is giving Hincapie the red light, I just think that in the back of his mind he'd bet that Popovych will finish higher (again). But without an obvious team leader, he's going to wait until the time trials and mountains to figure out who's the horse to bet on.
Ordinarily I think this strategy blows.
I don't think it's a feint for Savoldelli. His year is built around the Giro, not the Tour. I doubt he's in top shape to win a Grand Tour just this month.
Post a Comment
<< Home