Wednesday, June 28, 2006

The Team Preview

Picks to come, but until then...

What does each team bring to the Tour & what can we expect from them?

Discovery Channel
JASON: They bring an excellent team, the best manager, and no leader. Perhaps they say they are riding for George Hincapie. Why not? He’s been the ultimate team player and Yaroslav Popovych is a year away from becoming the leader. So, I suspect they’ll give Hincapie support and hope for a top 10 finish. Given the quality of this team, though, they really ought to aim for 2+ stage wins or perhaps the best team time.

STEVE: There’s this Savoldelli guy on the team who I hear is pretty good. They might want to ride for him. I agree that Popovych, the defending white jersey champ, is a year or two away. Then again, Menchov has been a year or two away for almost half a decade. The big mystery of this Tour is what it will look like post-Lance. Why would they bother to put forth the effort to dominate the peleton? Win a few stages, contend for the podium, but generally, just use this as a consolidation year.


AG2r
JASON: Every year we say what they need is a legit yellow jersey threat. Answer: Francisco Mancebo. On top of that they have Moreau for support in the mountains or perhaps a run at the polka dot jersey. This is AG2r’s big chance to be more than an also ran.

STEVE: Once a joke, AG2r has developed into a fine team. They aren’t a heavy hitter, but they aren’t making a mockery of their bid. And of course Moreau is going to make a run at dots in his usual cowardly way. He has perfected the Richard Virenque strategy of gobbling points on meaningless climbs and then getting thrashed on the big climbs. The fact this strategy works is disgraceful. I’m not sure how they are going to support Mancebo, a legit podium threat. It’s a real put up or shut up year for these guys.


CSC
JASON: This team means business. Yellow jersey favorite? Check (Ivan Basso). Time trial stud? Check (David Zabriskie). Green jersey contender? Check (Stu O’Grady). Mountain domestique? Check (Carlos Sastre). Gutsy rider who will do anything asked of him? Check (Jens Voigt). Old veteran to control the peloton on flats or mountains? Check (Bobby Julich). Remember how USPS/Discovery owned the Tour? This team can do it too.

STEVE: This team is loaded. And not in the Telekom sense of lots of big name riders who will stab each other in the back on a moment’s notice. Everyone knows who the Man is: Ivan Basso. You think David Zabriskie is gonna try and steal some of Basso’s glory? Sastre? Julich? These guys are pro’s pros. They know their role, and they also know any chance they ever had to win the Tour is long gone. They can only win by basking in the reflected glow of Basso, much like the old Posties. Though O’Grady will still ride for the Green, which shouldn’t hurt the team at all. And how cool is Voigt?


Telekom
JASON: For them it’s all about Jan Ullrich. If he wins this thing then Telekom ends the nightmare that they have endured for several years. The team is pretty solid with fine domestiques like Guerini and Sevilla. Kloden and Kessler are tough riders. Honchar and Rogers are excellent in the time trial. Will Ullrich have his best? Will the team actually function well?

STEVE: See the Tour organizers welcome the suspected drug dope, Ullrich, with open arms. It’s all a big misunderstanding, they say. Maybe it is. See those same people hound Lance. Roll eyes. Repeat.

OK, let’s talk about Team Dysfunction. Really, Telekom is the most entertaining team every year because you know they are going to implode, the only question is when and how. It seems they find new ways to screw each other over each its Tour, trying to top the previous year’s effort. Because we all know Ullrich won’t win, not for lack of talent but for lack of mental toughness. My money is on the newcomer, Michael Rogers, to chafe in his role as water-carrier and make his stab for the lead about Stage 14. Which will open the door for Kloden. I expect it to be great fun. Why is a tough-as-nails, no-nonsense rider like Kessler on this team?


Bogus Telecom
JASON: Familiar French names and familiar French expectations -- low.

STEVE: Laurent Brochard will usually ride hard and finish right around 30th place. Maybe someone will win a stage. I’ve always had a soft spot for Rous, but he’s not a real threat. I’ve got nothing interesting to say, so let’s move along.


Cassie d’ Epargne—Illes Balaeres
JASON: OK, STOP CHANGING THE TEAM NAME AND STOP MAKING IT LONGER EVERY TIME. On this webpage, it’s Banesto. With Oscar Pereiro, Vlad Karpets, and Alejandro Valverde, this team can do some real damage. Will they aim for stages or will they work for one man to win yellow?

STEVE: Pereiro only finished 16 minutes back, 11 minutes Basso. He has to be considered a dark horse, but was that the peak of his ability? Valverde is another real interesting name being thrown into the mix, but I’m skeptical of his chances. It’s a solid team that’s sort of on the verge of recapturing their glory years under Indurain, but not really. Is this the future of Discovery?


Astana Wurth
JASON: I’d like to say they are bringing the wildest wild card in the Tour (Al Vinokourov), but that might not happen. The team is still rolled up in doping scandal that destroyed their Giro. The Tour wants them banned. If that happens, then we’ll be missing the most exciting racer out there.

STEVE: The cycling gods hate Vino. I don’t know what else to say about this guy, who simply cannot buy a break. Ever since he showed Ullrich the back wheel, he’s been consistently screwed over, usually by Telekom. To be clear, Vino is not implicated in the doping scandal surrounding this team. Yet.


Cofids
JASON: There was a time when Cofidis was a good team that challenged for hardware. Now it is a collection of domestiques. Unless Chavanel finally becomes the great French cyclist they’ve been telling us he’d be for 5 years, their only hope of anything positive rests in David Moncoutie.

STEVE: Hey! Moncoutie won a stage last year! And, and... er, I got nothing. Their highest finisher from the last Tour was Vasseur. And he finished a hour and a half back. Which pretty much sums up this year’s team. Maybe they can win on Bastille Day again. The French always like that.


Credit Agricole
JASON: Thor Hushovd is back to defend the green jersey. Try winning a stage this time. For fun keep an eye on Laszlo Bodrogi—see if he can stay upright.

STEVE: They were on the cusp a few years ago, and have done nothing but backslide since then. OK, Moreau was sort of competitive in his own way last year, but he’s now off to greener pastures. This team has nothing to shoot for other than Thor Hushovd’s green jersey pursuit. Unless Caucchioli suddenly becomes, ya know, good.


Rabobank
JASON: Speaking of not staying upright, our man Erik Dekker returns. This team has a lot of talent—5 former stage winners plus Denis Menchov. Last year’s surprise, Michael Rasmussen is back, but he’ll catch no one by surprise this time. The question for him is will he go for the King of the Mountains again or aim for yellow.

STEVE: Dekker! Sure, he finished 3 hours back in 2005, keeping alive his three-year streak of finishes ranked in the triple digits (136th, 133rd, and 109th). He’s come to symbolize everything we love in the Tour. He rides hard, has won four stages, and has as much chance of winning this thing as I do. You forgot about Boogerd, who at least cracked the top 25 and was top 5 in dots as well. We’re both sort of wary of Rasmussen, not sure if last year was a complete and total fluke. But he did defend the hell out of the jersey and actually earned it. Menchov further complicates things, he’s the new team leader. This is a super interesting team, and I have absolutely no read on them. After last year’s great Tour (won the dots, 18 jerseys, and 2 stages), maybe they are due for an absolute crash and burn. Fitting for a team with Erik Dekker.


Davitamon
JASON: It’s the teamless team. Robbie McEwen is a favorite to win green and he may or may not use his team for help. Cadel Evans can repeat his solo effort to crack the top 10 without help from his team. Chris Horner can think about the odd breakaway, again, with no help from the team.

STEVE: In the team’s defense, McEwen doesn’t seem to like help. He just stalks his biggest rival, lets that team do the work, and then rocket by everyone in the last 100 meters. Which means the old Lotto team can maybe, just maybe, try and get Evans on the podium. Look, he’s not winning this thing, but Horner is a capable domestique and this is a wide open race.


Gerolsteiner
JASON: Is this the year for Levi Leipheimer? They return pretty much the same team that they had in 2005, which isn’t bad, but can they improve?

STEVE: The great American hope. And let’s not forget Georg Totschnig, perhaps the most underrated cyclist in the world (who is also in desperate need of some vowels). He’s always hanging around the top ten, and usually finishes all the brutal stages up with the big boys. Yet he never gets the credit. OK, I think he rides as a super domestique to Leipheimer, but who else has a #2 guy as strong? Basso for sure. Ullrich, if Kloden decides to help him. Everyone else has a rival, not a domestique (like the difficult pairing of Savoldelli with Popovych). I want Leipheimer to make the podium just because I like Totschnig so much.


Euskaltel
JASON: I predict Mayo will last all the way until stage 16 this time before abandoning.

STEVE: You’ve finally given up on your Basque boys. They have become an increasing embarrassment on each and every Tour. I’m at a loss. It’s just ugly.


Lampre
JASON: If this were the Giro I’d be impressed by a team bringing Damiano Cunego and Sal Commesso. But it’s not, and I’m not. Just who is Cunego fooling by lining up for this race?

STEVE: Speaking of dropouts by Stage 16. Cunego is a hell of a cyclist, and maybe this is the year he rides the Tour for real. Armstrong is gone, the door is wide open, and the favorite is an Italian. Why would you let the glory go to your countryman, when you could have it for yourself?


FdJ
JASON: Their roster is full of domestiques and nobodies. Somehow they usually find a way to distinguish themselves. How will they do it this time? Beats me.

STEVE: I’m always thoroughly impressed by FdJ. They do more with less than any other team in the Tour. They made the most of their gift bids almost a decade ago to transform themselves into a real solid team. Casar finished fifth in the Giro, so if he ups his game, he’s on the podium. Which would be the first time a Frenchman mattered in this race in long time. I don’t think Casar will make the podium, but it’s at least not a completely ridiculous scenario. Though they would be thrilled with a top ten. Or a top twenty.


Milram
JASON: Erik Zabel is back even though Telekom sent him into retirement two years ago. I hope he throttles them, but I know he’s too old. But is one more stage win too much to ask for the best Grand Tour sprinter of all time?

STEVE: For all of the talk about Lance, which is well-deserved, let’s lift our glasses to perhaps the greatest cyclist of the past decade. He’s a sprinter, a completely different kind of rider than Lance, but just as successful. This guy has a closet full of green jerseys, and while he won’t win another one, it’s nice that he’s in the race. And since he took his last victory lap pretty damn seriously, he may even crack the top five in points. I put nothing past the guy. Write him off at your own peril. Hell, he might win the green out of sheer spite. Telekom’s star is Ullrich, my ass.


Phonak
JASON: If they can look beyond all the drug scandals that have hit their team in the last two years they may be able to concentrate on Floyd Landis, who has a legit shot at the yellow jersey.

STEVE: He’s not Lance and he’s not Levi, but Landis is a solid, solid rider. The loss of Pereiro will really hurt him, but their co-existence was always sort of tenuous. Who’s going to be his domestique, Merckx? Pena? Jalabert? I don’t see it. His team will let him down. I don’t see him as a legit threat to win. Maybe the top five.


Quick Step
JASON: After crashing out of the Tour last year Tom Boonen would probably walk on hot coals to get the green jersey back now.

STEVE: It was his jersey to lose, and lost it he did. He held the green jersey every day but one. He had won two stages already. He just had to survive the mountains and then put his foot down in the last week. Hell, he didn’t finish, and still was ninth in total points. If there is one guy to root for in this year’s Tour, it is Tom Boonen. Bettini is always good for a highlight clip or two, and there’s the off chance Garate can follow up his impressive Giro. It’s a very off chance.


Saunier
JASON: The biggest whiner in cycling (Simoni) and the dope cheat returning from suspension (Millar) on the same team. Need a team to mock when you aren’t making fun of Euskaltel? This is it.

STEVE: Just when we were running out of people to hate. I mean, Virenque is gone and mocking Moreau isn’t nearly as much fun. But the choking dog Simoni along with the delusional Millar? Sign me up! Remember when Millar publicly sold out his team when his chain broke during a time trial? We have all sorts of bitching and whining to look forward to.


Liquigas
JASON: I don’t expect much from them since they are an Italian team, and they don’t exactly perform at the Tour. But they only have 4 Italians on the squad, so maybe they will take it seriously.

STEVE: And those non-Italians are: Mugerli, Carlstrom, Calcagni, Backstedt, and Albasani. A real roster of superstars there. They can take the race as seriously as they want, they still ain’t finishing within two hours of yellow. Which leaves everything to Garzelli and DiLuca. If DiLuca finishes, it will be a Tour first.


Agritubel
JASON: A wild card team made up of guys I can’t recognize. Just once I’d like to see one of these crummy wild card teams actually ride like mad to earn their spot.

STEVE: Look, they suck. But to say a French wild card has never ridden hard is not true. OK, they haven’t shown up in a long time, and if they finish in the top 20 in any stage, much less the race, it would be a major accomplishment. But maybe we’ll find out what their jersey looks like by Stage 10. Where have you gone, BigMat? All is forgiven.

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