Highly (In)accurte Pre-Tour Prognostications
DOTS
Steve:
Let’s just skip the annual “they award climbing points in the most asinine fashion possible, allowing inferior climbers to win the jersey.” Pretend I discussed it fully. Just realize that it is a joke, and someone (READ: Christophe Moreau) will scam the system.
I also think if his team even rides, Vinokourov has to take a hard look in the mirror. He’s a great cyclist, but he’s going to get no support. Which means his chances of winning yellow are remote, even if he gets to the start line. And what is the favored jersey of the also-ran? The polka dots of the King of the Mountains. I don’t think he will ride for dots, he’s not a coward like Moreau, but he really should. But yellow is too appealing.
1. Christophe Moreau, AG2r
2. Michael Rasmussen, Rabobank
3. Micheal Rogers, Telekom
Jason:
This great idea has been ruined by those who scam the system. So, I will not devote many words to it. But, I refuse to pick Moreau.
King of the Mountains:
1. Thomas Voeckler
2. Oscar Periero
3. Ivan Basso
GREEN
Steve:
The last few years, this has been the dramatic competition. Boonen. Zabel. McEwen. Husovd. O’Grady. Petacchi. They’ve all kept us entertained in their own way (trying to be graceful about Petacchi). But for the first time in a long while, there is an established pecking order of the sprinters. McEwen is the stalker, Hushovd is the defender, O’Grady is in the mix, and Boonen is the guy looking for redemption. Does anyone else even have a shot? Zabel, just for old time’s sake.
I like Thor Hushovd. Hell, I like anyone named Thor. But I’m going to call last year’s Green a fluke. He didn’t win a single stage, and won mainly because he was the one guy who didn’t screw up. And his consistency will keep him in the mix, but it’s time for McEwen to show everyone who is boss again. He’ll stalk Husovd and take a point or two from him in every sprint. That’s what he does. He’s a bastard. My heart says Boonen, my head says McEwen. Head wins.
1. Robbie McEwen, Lotto
2. Tom Boonen, QuickStep
3. Thor Hushovd, Credit Agricole
Jason:
Green Jersey:
1. Tom Boonen—best sprinter
2. Robbie McEwen—best sprinter not named Boonen
3. Erik Zabel—best sprinter ever
YELLOW
Steve:
It’s being billed as the most wide open Tour in years. Which I guess is true in the academic sense. Lance isn’t going to lap the field, and neither is anyone else. But let’s not kid ourselves, Basso is a huge favorite. We’re just used to a ridiculously mammoth favorite. People can beat Basso with Basso still riding well. That wasn’t possible under Lance, as we struggled to come up with tortured scenarios in which he could maybe possibly lose. But that doesn’t mean Basso isn’t a huge favorite. He’s the best cyclist on earth, and we need to compare every contender up against him.
The contender list is pretty long, though. Any of these guys could show up on the podium without it being a surprise: Savoldelli, Popovych, Ullrich, Rogers, Vinokourov, Leipheimer, Menchov, Mancebo, Landis, Pereiro, and Valverde. And that’s leaving out wild cards like Mayo, Moreau, Kloden, Rasmussen, Evans, Di Luca, and Cunego. That’s a pretty long list, and not exhaustive. Should Basso falter, not outside the realm of possibility given that he did ride and win the Giro, any of these guys thinks he can pick up the slack and win the yellow jersey.
So, of these contenders, who is in the best situation? Mancebo is the undisputed leader of AG2r, which looks like its found some newfound strength. But will Moreau be a domestique? I doubt it. Leipheimer has Gerolsteiner lined up perfectly, and he’s fresh. No one is better situated. If Rabobank is still strong, Menchov has a similar set up if Rasmussen accepts his role. Landis is a leader with no real support. Valverde also has a team, the always mercurial Banesto. With Pereiro lurking.
Which of course bring us to Ullrich. The New Jersey Generals to Lance’s Harlem Globetrotters. He’s finished 2nd five times. He’s other three starts? 1st (pre-Lance), 3rd, and 5th. I can’t think of a great athlete so thoroughly dominated by another. Even Joe Frazier beat Ali once. It’s not that he stinks. Ullrich is great, just with the misfortune of riding against the second coming of Eddie Merckx. But the repeated blows to his psyche have surely taken its toll. I don’t think he believes he can win this race. Lance finally retires, only to have Basso take his place. Telekom’s soap opera has been a running theme the last few races, as star after star has been betrayed by Ullrich. It’s been great fun. And this is the last gasp.
But look at the team one more time: Kloden beat Ullrich in 2004, only to get the Vino treatment for his temerity. Rogers is an up and coming star, pegged as future winner. Honchar and Sevilla are super-domestiques, but they need their own glory of stage wins and getting kisses from podium girls. It’s a powder keg. I’m baffled how the same guy can make the same mistake with the same team every single year. What’s that definition of insanity again? In the end, it means the same thing it always means: 2nd place.
1. Ivan Basso, CSC
2. Jan Ullrich, Telekom
3. Levi Leipheimer, Gerolsteiner
4. Denis Menchov, Rabobank
5. Oscar Pereiro, Banesto
Jason:
I’ll make the case for several contenders…
Ivan Basso (CSC): He was 3rd in ’04 and 2nd in ’05, so it’s only natural that he’s 1st in ’06. Basso is probably the strongest climber of the contenders and he’s also the best Grand Tour racer competing. His team and manager are awesome. I see two problems for him. The long time trials give Ullrich and Vinokourov an advantage. The other problem is that he won the Giro in May. It’s really hard to be in championship form in May and July. But this rider and this team are good enough to do it.
Jan Ullrich (Telekom): The pressure for Ullrich to win must be enormous now that Armstrong is gone. It would be a perfect way for him to cap a career, and at his age the door is closing fast. He also appears to be in good form, as he won the Tour of Switzerland two weeks ago. The two long time trials really suit his strength. If Ullrich is within 80 seconds of the lead when he starts stage19 he will win the Tour. Now, without a pre-race crash, without chaos on his team, and without Lance Armstrong, can Jan deliver the goods?
Alexander Vinokourov (Wurth): The case for Vino is that he was a threat to win as a domestique, he attacks like mad in the mountains, and he learned to ride a time trial—last year he beat Ullrich. He also attacks too much, and that has hurt him in the past. But right now the bigger question is whether his team will be allowed to go. If he’s in, he’ll have more motivation than anyone.
Francisco Mancebo (AG2r): He’s been in the top 10 each of the last 4 years. He keeps getting better in the mountains, too. I was tempted to pick him to win it all until I saw the long time trials, and I don’t think he can overcome them.
Levi Leipheimer (Gerolsteiner): Each year he moves up the standings; in ’05 he lost his top 5 finish on the last day. Levi looks to be in great shape this year after a great climb on Mt. Ventoux en route to his win at the Dauphine Libere.
Floyd Landis (Phonak): Last year I wondered how he’d do as a team leader, and I was impressed that he turned in a top-10 finish. At the Dauphine he did a great time trial but didn’t do well on the climbs. Was he holding back or is he soft in the mountains? Floyd’s got two great assets for winning this race—a great time trial and the knack of getting better in the third week.
George Hincapie (Discovery): If Landis can make the change from domestique to leader, why not George? Fewer mountain stages and longer time trials help him. So does the best team manager in cycling.
Yeah, I know I’m leaving off a host of great riders—Menchov, Karpets, Evans, etc. And yeah, I think there is a good chance that this race will be won by someone other than the likely contenders. But predicting who will be the unforeseen guy to take the race by surprise is like picking a name out of a hat.
The pick:
1. Basso
2. Leipheimer
3. Landis
Basso’s the best cyclist in the world. Winning the double is hard, but last year he was one day with the flu away from winning the Giro and then beat everyone but Lance in the Tour. Basso can do it. I think Leipheimer is in fantastic shape after what he did in the climbs and time trial in the Dauphine. As for Landis, I think the tough third week suits him. Darkhorse candidate: Yaroslav Popovych. I think Jan Ullrich is psychologically broken.
Gentlemen, start your engines.
Steve:
Let’s just skip the annual “they award climbing points in the most asinine fashion possible, allowing inferior climbers to win the jersey.” Pretend I discussed it fully. Just realize that it is a joke, and someone (READ: Christophe Moreau) will scam the system.
I also think if his team even rides, Vinokourov has to take a hard look in the mirror. He’s a great cyclist, but he’s going to get no support. Which means his chances of winning yellow are remote, even if he gets to the start line. And what is the favored jersey of the also-ran? The polka dots of the King of the Mountains. I don’t think he will ride for dots, he’s not a coward like Moreau, but he really should. But yellow is too appealing.
1. Christophe Moreau, AG2r
2. Michael Rasmussen, Rabobank
3. Micheal Rogers, Telekom
Jason:
This great idea has been ruined by those who scam the system. So, I will not devote many words to it. But, I refuse to pick Moreau.
King of the Mountains:
1. Thomas Voeckler
2. Oscar Periero
3. Ivan Basso
GREEN
Steve:
The last few years, this has been the dramatic competition. Boonen. Zabel. McEwen. Husovd. O’Grady. Petacchi. They’ve all kept us entertained in their own way (trying to be graceful about Petacchi). But for the first time in a long while, there is an established pecking order of the sprinters. McEwen is the stalker, Hushovd is the defender, O’Grady is in the mix, and Boonen is the guy looking for redemption. Does anyone else even have a shot? Zabel, just for old time’s sake.
I like Thor Hushovd. Hell, I like anyone named Thor. But I’m going to call last year’s Green a fluke. He didn’t win a single stage, and won mainly because he was the one guy who didn’t screw up. And his consistency will keep him in the mix, but it’s time for McEwen to show everyone who is boss again. He’ll stalk Husovd and take a point or two from him in every sprint. That’s what he does. He’s a bastard. My heart says Boonen, my head says McEwen. Head wins.
1. Robbie McEwen, Lotto
2. Tom Boonen, QuickStep
3. Thor Hushovd, Credit Agricole
Jason:
Green Jersey:
1. Tom Boonen—best sprinter
2. Robbie McEwen—best sprinter not named Boonen
3. Erik Zabel—best sprinter ever
YELLOW
Steve:
It’s being billed as the most wide open Tour in years. Which I guess is true in the academic sense. Lance isn’t going to lap the field, and neither is anyone else. But let’s not kid ourselves, Basso is a huge favorite. We’re just used to a ridiculously mammoth favorite. People can beat Basso with Basso still riding well. That wasn’t possible under Lance, as we struggled to come up with tortured scenarios in which he could maybe possibly lose. But that doesn’t mean Basso isn’t a huge favorite. He’s the best cyclist on earth, and we need to compare every contender up against him.
The contender list is pretty long, though. Any of these guys could show up on the podium without it being a surprise: Savoldelli, Popovych, Ullrich, Rogers, Vinokourov, Leipheimer, Menchov, Mancebo, Landis, Pereiro, and Valverde. And that’s leaving out wild cards like Mayo, Moreau, Kloden, Rasmussen, Evans, Di Luca, and Cunego. That’s a pretty long list, and not exhaustive. Should Basso falter, not outside the realm of possibility given that he did ride and win the Giro, any of these guys thinks he can pick up the slack and win the yellow jersey.
So, of these contenders, who is in the best situation? Mancebo is the undisputed leader of AG2r, which looks like its found some newfound strength. But will Moreau be a domestique? I doubt it. Leipheimer has Gerolsteiner lined up perfectly, and he’s fresh. No one is better situated. If Rabobank is still strong, Menchov has a similar set up if Rasmussen accepts his role. Landis is a leader with no real support. Valverde also has a team, the always mercurial Banesto. With Pereiro lurking.
Which of course bring us to Ullrich. The New Jersey Generals to Lance’s Harlem Globetrotters. He’s finished 2nd five times. He’s other three starts? 1st (pre-Lance), 3rd, and 5th. I can’t think of a great athlete so thoroughly dominated by another. Even Joe Frazier beat Ali once. It’s not that he stinks. Ullrich is great, just with the misfortune of riding against the second coming of Eddie Merckx. But the repeated blows to his psyche have surely taken its toll. I don’t think he believes he can win this race. Lance finally retires, only to have Basso take his place. Telekom’s soap opera has been a running theme the last few races, as star after star has been betrayed by Ullrich. It’s been great fun. And this is the last gasp.
But look at the team one more time: Kloden beat Ullrich in 2004, only to get the Vino treatment for his temerity. Rogers is an up and coming star, pegged as future winner. Honchar and Sevilla are super-domestiques, but they need their own glory of stage wins and getting kisses from podium girls. It’s a powder keg. I’m baffled how the same guy can make the same mistake with the same team every single year. What’s that definition of insanity again? In the end, it means the same thing it always means: 2nd place.
1. Ivan Basso, CSC
2. Jan Ullrich, Telekom
3. Levi Leipheimer, Gerolsteiner
4. Denis Menchov, Rabobank
5. Oscar Pereiro, Banesto
Jason:
I’ll make the case for several contenders…
Ivan Basso (CSC): He was 3rd in ’04 and 2nd in ’05, so it’s only natural that he’s 1st in ’06. Basso is probably the strongest climber of the contenders and he’s also the best Grand Tour racer competing. His team and manager are awesome. I see two problems for him. The long time trials give Ullrich and Vinokourov an advantage. The other problem is that he won the Giro in May. It’s really hard to be in championship form in May and July. But this rider and this team are good enough to do it.
Jan Ullrich (Telekom): The pressure for Ullrich to win must be enormous now that Armstrong is gone. It would be a perfect way for him to cap a career, and at his age the door is closing fast. He also appears to be in good form, as he won the Tour of Switzerland two weeks ago. The two long time trials really suit his strength. If Ullrich is within 80 seconds of the lead when he starts stage19 he will win the Tour. Now, without a pre-race crash, without chaos on his team, and without Lance Armstrong, can Jan deliver the goods?
Alexander Vinokourov (Wurth): The case for Vino is that he was a threat to win as a domestique, he attacks like mad in the mountains, and he learned to ride a time trial—last year he beat Ullrich. He also attacks too much, and that has hurt him in the past. But right now the bigger question is whether his team will be allowed to go. If he’s in, he’ll have more motivation than anyone.
Francisco Mancebo (AG2r): He’s been in the top 10 each of the last 4 years. He keeps getting better in the mountains, too. I was tempted to pick him to win it all until I saw the long time trials, and I don’t think he can overcome them.
Levi Leipheimer (Gerolsteiner): Each year he moves up the standings; in ’05 he lost his top 5 finish on the last day. Levi looks to be in great shape this year after a great climb on Mt. Ventoux en route to his win at the Dauphine Libere.
Floyd Landis (Phonak): Last year I wondered how he’d do as a team leader, and I was impressed that he turned in a top-10 finish. At the Dauphine he did a great time trial but didn’t do well on the climbs. Was he holding back or is he soft in the mountains? Floyd’s got two great assets for winning this race—a great time trial and the knack of getting better in the third week.
George Hincapie (Discovery): If Landis can make the change from domestique to leader, why not George? Fewer mountain stages and longer time trials help him. So does the best team manager in cycling.
Yeah, I know I’m leaving off a host of great riders—Menchov, Karpets, Evans, etc. And yeah, I think there is a good chance that this race will be won by someone other than the likely contenders. But predicting who will be the unforeseen guy to take the race by surprise is like picking a name out of a hat.
The pick:
1. Basso
2. Leipheimer
3. Landis
Basso’s the best cyclist in the world. Winning the double is hard, but last year he was one day with the flu away from winning the Giro and then beat everyone but Lance in the Tour. Basso can do it. I think Leipheimer is in fantastic shape after what he did in the climbs and time trial in the Dauphine. As for Landis, I think the tough third week suits him. Darkhorse candidate: Yaroslav Popovych. I think Jan Ullrich is psychologically broken.
Gentlemen, start your engines.
posted by uberschuck at 8:32 AM
2 Comments:
New Jersey Generals? That was a USFL team (Hershel Walker played for them). Don't you mean the Washington Generals? Man, DC gets no respect...
D'oh!
I confused my Globetrotters with the USFL. Damn the lack of an editor...
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