Saturday, July 08, 2006

The Race of Truth

Serihy Gonchar's ship has finally come in with a dominant 1 minute win in the time trial and a yellow jersey too. This was a tough course that tested everyone, but Gonchar was awesome.

We've noticed that Americans are pretty good at time trials, but today the USA had big problems with the crash of Julich and the awful ride of Leipheimer. Today it was the Germans who put on a clinic. Sebastian Lang was third, and places 6-9 were taken by Sinkewitz, Fothen (who re-claimed the white jersey), and Kloden. Telekom and Gerolsteiner each have 2 of those riders, and Honchar rides for Telekom, so they had an outstanding day in the time trial. Jan Ullrich can retire any minute now. His team does much better without him.

No one expects Honchar to be in yellow after the first mountain, so don't expect Telekom to defend this jersey, but they have lots of options now and can play things close to the vest. They can defend Fothen's white jersey and Kloden is a threat to win the race.

Floyd Landis is a big winner on the day. He was second on the stage and is now second in the GC, just 1 minute behind Honchar. And that's despite losing time for a bike change today. When this race turns uphill, all eyes will be on Floyd.

The guys on OLN talked about Discovery as though they stunk, but that's not true. Disco didn't have a good day, but a fair day. In the overall standings Savoldelli is 70 seconds behind Landis; Hincapie is 90 seconds behind Landis; Popovych is 2:27 behind Landis. Disco has lots of options and can hold their cards close to the vest too.

A few other riders did themselves favors in the time trial today. Denis Menchov, Vlad Karpets, Cadel Evans, Christoph Moreau, Oscar Pereiro, and Carlos Sastre all finished fast enough to leave them in fair shape in the overall standings. They are all within 3 minutes of Honchar and 2 minutes of Landis.

Leipheimer layed an egg today, finishing 96th (behind Iban Mayo!) and is now 6:17 behind Honchar. There has been no explanation why she sucked so bad. An uncharacteristic flop like this is often the sign of sickness. But he also had a lackluster prologue, so maybe he's lost his fitness since winning the Dauphine last month. Whatever the case, he probably kissed his yellow jersey chances goodbye today.

This Tour is going to be a great race, and I forsee a few more exchanges of the yellow jersey. In the days of Armstrong and Indurain, the first time trial usually sent the signal that the favorite was going to win again. It was just unfair that Armstrong was the best in the time trial and the best in the mountains. In this Tour no one has such a psychological advantage that everyone else knows the leader is the best at everything that counts. Even though Landis is looking good right now everyone knows he can be vulnerable in the mountains. It's no certainty that he can ride at the front of the pack every day because it was just last year he was dropped in the mountains.

Speaking of mountains, we've got two big climbs on Wednesday and a colossal finishing climb on Thursday. Think the GC was shaken up today? Wait until Thursday.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think a lot of people are underestimating Gonchar's ability to limit his losses in the mountains. Remember, he finished 2nd in a very climber-friendly (with only 1 TT) Giro in '04. Saying that, I think he will eventually lose the lead, but it won't be easy. Now, about Landis, I'm not too crazy about his team, but he definitely looks the strongest of the main contenders.

9:22 PM  

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