Saturday, July 22, 2006

Landis, Pereiro, Kloden

Well, for a change, things went as planned. Landis is a better time trialist than Pereiro or Sastre, so he made up the difference and will wear yellow in Paris.

Carlos Sastre finally had a bad day, and it's too bad for him that Andreas Kloden had a great day. Kloden wins a spot on the podium. Oscar Pereiro had a really good race to save a podium spot. Pereiro's Tour shows what the yellow jersey can do to a cyclist. Before he got the 30 minute gift he was an MIA. Once he got the yellow jersey, he turned in the best performance of his life.


It's been an outstanding Tour to watch. Be sure to check this page after the Tour ends to see our team evaluation and the All-Star team.

Thursday, July 20, 2006

Landis as Phoenix

It is still true that if you play with matches you get burned. But the Phoenix rises from its own ashes to fly again.



image from wikipedia, adulterated by JG



When Tyler Hamilton went solo to win a stage in 2003, we thought that was one of the most amazing things ever. Floyd Landis makes Hamilton look mundane. Here's how...

The stage was harder. Landis attacked on the first of 4 big climbs. Landis set out on a suicide mission. All common sense predicts he cooks himself in the long breakaway and dies on the final climb.

The stakes were higher: Landis just suffered the worst day of his career. He had every excuse to sulk. Instead he gave it his all and ended up once again the favorite to take the yellow jersey to Paris.

The margin was bigger. Hamilton made about 2 minutes on the peloton on his ride; Landis toasted Sastre by 5 mintues and Pereiro by over 6 minutes.

Hamilton had a broken collarbone. Landis can match that with a degenerative hip. Plus, Landis isn't suspended for blood doping.

Floyd Landis accomplished something I didn't think was possible today. We questioned his tactics and his drive. Forget it. Stage 17 is proof that Landis wants to win this thing more than anyone else in the peloton. The Phoenix is a myth. Landis is the real deal; I stand corrected.

Landis should be the favorite to take the yellow jersey on the Saturday time trial. He's a better time trialist than Pereiro and Sastre, providing he can recover from the Alps. Comparing how these 3 got here is really interesting. Pereiro is the opportunist to exploited a 30 minute gift. Sastre is the guy who has been great and consistent throughout. Landis has been totally erratic: fine at times, remarkably dumb in tactics, dead in stage 16, brilliant and tough in stage 17.

One last note to Pereiro, Sastre, and Landis: Should someone like Kloden or Menchov or Evans attack the peloton 150 km from the finish on stage 18, chase him down, OK.

Wednesday, July 19, 2006

If you play with matches you get burned.

Stage 16 results

1. Mickael Rasmussen (Dk), Rabobank,
2. Carlos Sastre (Sp), CSC,
01:41
3. Oscar Pereiro Sio (Sp), Banesto.,
01:54
4. Cadel Evans (Aus), Lotto,
01:56
5. Andréas Klöden (G), Telekom,
01:56
8. Cyril Dessel (F), AG2r,
02:37
9. Levi Leipheimer (
USA), Gerolsteiner, 03:24
11. Denis Menchov (Rus), Rabobank,
03:42
14. Damiano Cunego (I), Lampre,
04:21
17. Marcus Fothen (G), Gerolsteiner,
08:37
23. Floyd Landis (
USA), Phonak, 10:04


Overall

1. Oscar Pereiro Sio (Sp), Banesto
2. Carlos Sastre (Sp), CSC,
01:50
3. Andréas Klöden (G), Telekom,
02:29
4. Cyril Dessel (F), AG2r,
02:43
5. Cadel Evans (Aus), Lotto, 02:56

Floyd Landis cracked and is now 8 minutes out of the lead. He can start thinking about what could have been. He played with fire by giving Pereiro 30 minutes and by failing to put his rivals away when they were in difficulty yesterday and in stage 11. His rivals gave him no such sympathy today, and so he was burned.


There are only 4 men within 3 minutes of Pereiro; one of them will probably win the Tour. In case you are wondering, Kloden had the best stage 7 time trial of these guys at +1:43. The others: Evans at +1:49; Sastre at +2:11; Pereiro at +2:41; Dessel at +3:42. Of course, considering how wacky things have been, there may be more surprises in store. There are lots of climbs in Stage 17. The last two days have been very exciting, so I’m hoping for more.


Kloden is riding tough and steady like we know he can. Sastre finally got the impetus to attack, and he looked really strong today. Evans did a great job holding on—he looked like he was really suffering. Pereiro and Dessel have been transformed by wearing the yellow jersey. Pereiro was listless in the Pyrenees, but he looked calm through most of the day and strong at the finish. Dessel is another story. I have no idea how this guy continues to hang with the big boys day after day.


Dots: Just when I say De la Fuente is looking good, he gets shut out on the day and Rasmussen goes wild.


White jersey: Cunego made up a lot of time on Fothen today. He’s now just 2:42 off Fothen’s lead (down from 12:15 on Sunday).


Team competition: CSC had a huge lead a couple days ago, but Telekom has closed to +2:23. Telekom finally had a stranglehold on the final climb and they really put the hurt on everyone else (except Carlos Sastre).

Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Stage 15: Landis Back in Yellow

Who doesn't love Alpe d'Huez?

I'm kind of short on actually commentary. It was a fun stage, really. An early breakaway quickly fell apart as soon as they reached the legendary mountain, but the top two of Schleck and Cunego held off the big guns for the whole climb. And Schleck perfectly timed his attack in the last kilometers to win the stage. So CSC is going to at least get a stage win in this Tour as well as some fabulous parting gifts.

I'm sure there's bound to be someone claiming that this shows Landis' gamble worked. That's not true. If Landis wins, it will be in spite of Stage 13, not because of it. As we predicted, the only Phonak rider even capable of helping Landis is Merckx, so the team saved its energy for no particular reason. Landis can certainly win this Tour, but he's got to do it on his own.

And he still has a fairly crowded field behind him. Today, his big threat was Menchov. Tomorrow, it's Kloden. And he can't write off Pereiro yet. Or Sastre and Evans. Without one rival to focus on, Landis has to worry about everyone. He doesn't have to beat any of his rivals over the next two days, he just has to minimize the losses. And then Landis will be the favorite in the ITT.

We're now at the point where someone has to make a charge at the lead. Because you can't go into the ITT nearly tied with Landis or else you are going to lose. You listening Evans? Menchov? You have two days to make an attack. Or else an American is going to win this race again.

Stage 15—Alpe d’Huez

At the finish line...

1Frank Schleck (CSC)
2 Damiano Cunego (Lampre) +0:11
4 Floyd Landis (Phonak) +1:10
5 Andreas Kloden (Telekom) +1:10
9 Carlos Sastre (CSC) +1:35
10 Levi Leipheimer (Gerolsteiner) +1:49
11 Denis Menchov (Rabobank) +2:21
14 Oscar Pereiro (Banesto) +2:49
16 Cadel Evans (Lotto) +2:49
18 Axel Merckx (Phonak) +2:56
19 Cyril Dessel (AG2r) +3:04
24 David De la Fuente (Saunier) +3:36
Tom Boonen (Quick Step) DNF

There was lots of action, yet I feel cheated.

Frank Schelck was part of the long breakaway, yet survived for the win, which is outstanding. The fact that the GC contenders called the dogs off is no reason not to respect Scheck’s great performance. CSC down & out? Speaking of CSC, our man Jens Voigt was in the breakaway too. He played the part of uberdomestique in making tempo for both Schleck and later Sastre. Jens has officially earned a spot on the TdF All-Star team.

Cunego finally showed a sign of life and made up a little time on Marcus Fothen, but he’s still far behind in the white jersey competition.

Floyd Landis is obviously trying to win using the Miguel Indurain strategy: beat everyone in the time trial and make sure they don’t beat you in the mountains. It’s driving me nuts because I want him to win, yet I hate the strategy. My other problem is that he lacks the killer instinct to put this race away. In the Pyrenees he didn’t keep the pressure on Kloden when he was weak. Well, Kloden is back and still dangerous. Today he refused to attack when Menchov was in difficulty. Menchov recovered and lost only 1 minute. It could have been worse; Floyd should have raised the tempo to put another minute on him. So, because Floyd lacks the killer instinct, Menchov and Kloden are still in this thing.

Pereiro was defiant in defending the yellow jersey. He’s only 10 seconds out, but he’ll probably fall off the map tomorrow.

I’m even more impressed with Cyril Dessel, who has absolutely no business riding with these guys, yet is still fighting. Dessel never got the memo that he isn’t this good. After Alpe d’Huez he is ahead of Menchov, Kloden, and Sastre.

It was a wise move by Phonak to put Axel Merckx in the breakaway so that he could help Landis on the final climb. Lands got about half a kilometer out of him, so let’s not wet our pants about how good Phonak turned out to be. The fact is, they had to resort to that tactic because it’s their only hope of having anyone within sight of Landis at crunch time. Imagine how weak they’d be without their brilliant move of surrendering the yellow jersey so they could save themselves for today. Uh huh.

It looked like Michael Rasmussen was gradually catching David de la Fuente, but today David took a bunch of points by placing himself in the breakaway. That put a big gap on Rasmussen. There are a lot of points left in the next two days, but de la Fuente suddenly looks like he could win.

Tom Boonen abandoned today. With so few sprinting points remaining, McEwen simply has to finish the race to win the green jersey.

Why do I feel cheated?

I’d like the champion of the Tour to win it by riding away from his rivals. Just once, Floyd (or whoever), I want to see you attack your competition and continue the attack until no one is on your wheel. Winning by attrition still counts, but winning assertively sure looks a lot better.
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