Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Stage 15: Landis Back in Yellow

Who doesn't love Alpe d'Huez?

I'm kind of short on actually commentary. It was a fun stage, really. An early breakaway quickly fell apart as soon as they reached the legendary mountain, but the top two of Schleck and Cunego held off the big guns for the whole climb. And Schleck perfectly timed his attack in the last kilometers to win the stage. So CSC is going to at least get a stage win in this Tour as well as some fabulous parting gifts.

I'm sure there's bound to be someone claiming that this shows Landis' gamble worked. That's not true. If Landis wins, it will be in spite of Stage 13, not because of it. As we predicted, the only Phonak rider even capable of helping Landis is Merckx, so the team saved its energy for no particular reason. Landis can certainly win this Tour, but he's got to do it on his own.

And he still has a fairly crowded field behind him. Today, his big threat was Menchov. Tomorrow, it's Kloden. And he can't write off Pereiro yet. Or Sastre and Evans. Without one rival to focus on, Landis has to worry about everyone. He doesn't have to beat any of his rivals over the next two days, he just has to minimize the losses. And then Landis will be the favorite in the ITT.

We're now at the point where someone has to make a charge at the lead. Because you can't go into the ITT nearly tied with Landis or else you are going to lose. You listening Evans? Menchov? You have two days to make an attack. Or else an American is going to win this race again.

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