Saturday, July 01, 2006

Prologue: We're Off

Well, thank God the race is underway. And, even better, David Millar didn't win the Prologue which would have been uncomfortable for everybody. I think the organizers were praying to God that Millar, returning from a drug suspension, wouldn't be among the leaders in a Tour already marred by a drug scandal. Millar helpfully complied.

Prologues are kind of a waste of time. Nothing that important happens usually, as the course is not long enough to build any lead in the GC. However, Thor Hushovd is trying to win a Green Jersey. He won one last year despite his failure to win a stage, so he has already fixed that problem in this year's Tour. Even bigger for Hushovd is that he picked up 15 points for his stage victory and only one other sprinter picked up a single point (O'Grady got 5 for finishing 6th). It is entirely conceivable that the Green will come down to 15 points, so this is a huge edge for Hushovd. And let's face it, Boonen and McEwen are better sprinters so Hushovd needs the edge. It's not just 15 points, it's 15 points while your rivals got 0. Big win for Hushovd. Go Thor!

As for the GC, I'm not sure how much of a statement it is for Hincapie to have finished second. I mean, he put a whopping 4 seconds into Valverde. That's got to keep a guy up at nights. Maybe it means something within the team dynamics of Discovery, but I highly doubt it. Some interesting names did lay an egg today, losing nearly a minute in a 7km race, which is tough to do: Caucchioli, Totschnig, Cunego, DiLuca, and Rasmussen all had pretty lousy days (defined as finishing behind Mayo in a time trial). But the damage is minimal.

Real racing starts tomorrow with Thor in yellow.

Friday, June 30, 2006

Dopes and Doping

Well, I guess those names I listed late last night are now confirmed. I’m flabbergasted by the scope of the suspensions, and I’d like to echo Jason’s thoughts.

It is ridiculous to suspend riders who have not flunked a drug test. These guys are being kicked out of the Tour because they have been accused of doping. Hell, if that’s the standard, no one would be able to start the race. And I know the Tour or the UCI didn’t suspend these riders, it’s being done “voluntarily” by the teams. But the teams are running scared.

No one wants to come out for drug cheats, but I am appalled by the Anti-Doping zealots’ conduct. Guys like Dick Pound are just bullies. Treating every single athlete like a criminal is counter-productive. Flying off half-cocked on every shred of evidence, no matter how unreliable, just demeans the whole process. And it misses the whole point. You can’t compromise with a righteous zealot. You can’t even reason with them. The Anti-Doping forces have moved past the realm of reason and into the realm of a crusade. And I don’t like crusades.

The world is not black and white. It’s far more interesting and complex than that. Doping is bad, but it does not then follow that anything someone does to stop doping is therefore good. It is easy to be disgusted by both the dopers and the anti-doping forces. We’re not going to solve this problem if everyone is busy antagonizing one another.

The cure is worse than the disease. Is the solution to get rid of drug cheats really to destroy the Tour? This is like lopping off a patient’s head in order to cure a migraine. Are we destroying the village in order to save it?

Did anyone say doping scandal?

If you're paying attention, you'll realize that our picks were made before Basso, Ullrich, and Mancebo were ruled out. Right now everything is in chaos.

As far as I can tell these decisions have been made by team managers, not the Tour. So, don't be surprised if any or all get reversed. But this is serious stuff--Bjarne Riis is the guy who pulled the trigger on Basso.

The whole thing is fishy. We have accusations and undisclosed evidence released hours before the race, and amazingly it implicates several contenders. Now these guys are held out without the opportunity to appeal, and without ever having failed a drug test. And how is it that a GC contenders are an overrepresented group under fire here. There are other riders, but mostly domestique types. How is it that not one green jersey contender is implicated? Everyone else dopes but sprinters? I smell a rat--lots of them. I think cycling is dirty and tainted by doping, but I also think this drug scandal is tainted too.

What happens now? Good question. Leaving these guys out of the Tour based upon untested accusations is a travesty and it ruins the Tour. As for our picks...I guess it's good news for Leipheimer.

If Vino gets to ride this thing while those three (particularly Ullrich) are out, then he's going to be one happy dude.

Highly (In)accurte Pre-Tour Prognostications

DOTS
Steve:
Let’s just skip the annual “they award climbing points in the most asinine fashion possible, allowing inferior climbers to win the jersey.” Pretend I discussed it fully. Just realize that it is a joke, and someone (READ: Christophe Moreau) will scam the system.

I also think if his team even rides, Vinokourov has to take a hard look in the mirror. He’s a great cyclist, but he’s going to get no support. Which means his chances of winning yellow are remote, even if he gets to the start line. And what is the favored jersey of the also-ran? The polka dots of the King of the Mountains. I don’t think he will ride for dots, he’s not a coward like Moreau, but he really should. But yellow is too appealing.

1. Christophe Moreau, AG2r
2. Michael Rasmussen, Rabobank
3. Micheal Rogers, Telekom

Jason:
This great idea has been ruined by those who scam the system. So, I will not devote many words to it. But, I refuse to pick Moreau.

King of the Mountains:
1. Thomas Voeckler
2. Oscar Periero
3. Ivan Basso


GREEN

Steve:
The last few years, this has been the dramatic competition. Boonen. Zabel. McEwen. Husovd. O’Grady. Petacchi. They’ve all kept us entertained in their own way (trying to be graceful about Petacchi). But for the first time in a long while, there is an established pecking order of the sprinters. McEwen is the stalker, Hushovd is the defender, O’Grady is in the mix, and Boonen is the guy looking for redemption. Does anyone else even have a shot? Zabel, just for old time’s sake.

I like Thor Hushovd. Hell, I like anyone named Thor. But I’m going to call last year’s Green a fluke. He didn’t win a single stage, and won mainly because he was the one guy who didn’t screw up. And his consistency will keep him in the mix, but it’s time for McEwen to show everyone who is boss again. He’ll stalk Husovd and take a point or two from him in every sprint. That’s what he does. He’s a bastard. My heart says Boonen, my head says McEwen. Head wins.

1. Robbie McEwen, Lotto
2. Tom Boonen, QuickStep
3. Thor Hushovd, Credit Agricole

Jason:
Green Jersey:

1. Tom Boonen—best sprinter
2. Robbie McEwen—best sprinter not named Boonen
3. Erik Zabel—best sprinter ever


YELLOW
Steve:
It’s being billed as the most wide open Tour in years. Which I guess is true in the academic sense. Lance isn’t going to lap the field, and neither is anyone else. But let’s not kid ourselves, Basso is a huge favorite. We’re just used to a ridiculously mammoth favorite. People can beat Basso with Basso still riding well. That wasn’t possible under Lance, as we struggled to come up with tortured scenarios in which he could maybe possibly lose. But that doesn’t mean Basso isn’t a huge favorite. He’s the best cyclist on earth, and we need to compare every contender up against him.

The contender list is pretty long, though. Any of these guys could show up on the podium without it being a surprise: Savoldelli, Popovych, Ullrich, Rogers, Vinokourov, Leipheimer, Menchov, Mancebo, Landis, Pereiro, and Valverde. And that’s leaving out wild cards like Mayo, Moreau, Kloden, Rasmussen, Evans, Di Luca, and Cunego. That’s a pretty long list, and not exhaustive. Should Basso falter, not outside the realm of possibility given that he did ride and win the Giro, any of these guys thinks he can pick up the slack and win the yellow jersey.

So, of these contenders, who is in the best situation? Mancebo is the undisputed leader of AG2r, which looks like its found some newfound strength. But will Moreau be a domestique? I doubt it. Leipheimer has Gerolsteiner lined up perfectly, and he’s fresh. No one is better situated. If Rabobank is still strong, Menchov has a similar set up if Rasmussen accepts his role. Landis is a leader with no real support. Valverde also has a team, the always mercurial Banesto. With Pereiro lurking.

Which of course bring us to Ullrich. The New Jersey Generals to Lance’s Harlem Globetrotters. He’s finished 2nd five times. He’s other three starts? 1st (pre-Lance), 3rd, and 5th. I can’t think of a great athlete so thoroughly dominated by another. Even Joe Frazier beat Ali once. It’s not that he stinks. Ullrich is great, just with the misfortune of riding against the second coming of Eddie Merckx. But the repeated blows to his psyche have surely taken its toll. I don’t think he believes he can win this race. Lance finally retires, only to have Basso take his place. Telekom’s soap opera has been a running theme the last few races, as star after star has been betrayed by Ullrich. It’s been great fun. And this is the last gasp.

But look at the team one more time: Kloden beat Ullrich in 2004, only to get the Vino treatment for his temerity. Rogers is an up and coming star, pegged as future winner. Honchar and Sevilla are super-domestiques, but they need their own glory of stage wins and getting kisses from podium girls. It’s a powder keg. I’m baffled how the same guy can make the same mistake with the same team every single year. What’s that definition of insanity again? In the end, it means the same thing it always means: 2nd place.

1. Ivan Basso, CSC
2. Jan Ullrich, Telekom
3. Levi Leipheimer, Gerolsteiner
4. Denis Menchov, Rabobank
5. Oscar Pereiro, Banesto


Jason:
I’ll make the case for several contenders…

Ivan Basso (CSC): He was 3rd in ’04 and 2nd in ’05, so it’s only natural that he’s 1st in ’06. Basso is probably the strongest climber of the contenders and he’s also the best Grand Tour racer competing. His team and manager are awesome. I see two problems for him. The long time trials give Ullrich and Vinokourov an advantage. The other problem is that he won the Giro in May. It’s really hard to be in championship form in May and July. But this rider and this team are good enough to do it.

Jan Ullrich (Telekom): The pressure for Ullrich to win must be enormous now that Armstrong is gone. It would be a perfect way for him to cap a career, and at his age the door is closing fast. He also appears to be in good form, as he won the Tour of Switzerland two weeks ago. The two long time trials really suit his strength. If Ullrich is within 80 seconds of the lead when he starts stage19 he will win the Tour. Now, without a pre-race crash, without chaos on his team, and without Lance Armstrong, can Jan deliver the goods?

Alexander Vinokourov (Wurth): The case for Vino is that he was a threat to win as a domestique, he attacks like mad in the mountains, and he learned to ride a time trial—last year he beat Ullrich. He also attacks too much, and that has hurt him in the past. But right now the bigger question is whether his team will be allowed to go. If he’s in, he’ll have more motivation than anyone.

Francisco Mancebo (AG2r): He’s been in the top 10 each of the last 4 years. He keeps getting better in the mountains, too. I was tempted to pick him to win it all until I saw the long time trials, and I don’t think he can overcome them.

Levi Leipheimer (Gerolsteiner): Each year he moves up the standings; in ’05 he lost his top 5 finish on the last day. Levi looks to be in great shape this year after a great climb on Mt. Ventoux en route to his win at the Dauphine Libere.

Floyd Landis (Phonak): Last year I wondered how he’d do as a team leader, and I was impressed that he turned in a top-10 finish. At the Dauphine he did a great time trial but didn’t do well on the climbs. Was he holding back or is he soft in the mountains? Floyd’s got two great assets for winning this race—a great time trial and the knack of getting better in the third week.

George Hincapie (Discovery): If Landis can make the change from domestique to leader, why not George? Fewer mountain stages and longer time trials help him. So does the best team manager in cycling.


Yeah, I know I’m leaving off a host of great riders—Menchov, Karpets, Evans, etc. And yeah, I think there is a good chance that this race will be won by someone other than the likely contenders. But predicting who will be the unforeseen guy to take the race by surprise is like picking a name out of a hat.

The pick:
1. Basso
2. Leipheimer
3. Landis

Basso’s the best cyclist in the world. Winning the double is hard, but last year he was one day with the flu away from winning the Giro and then beat everyone but Lance in the Tour. Basso can do it. I think Leipheimer is in fantastic shape after what he did in the climbs and time trial in the Dauphine. As for Landis, I think the tough third week suits him. Darkhorse candidate: Yaroslav Popovych. I think Jan Ullrich is psychologically broken.

Gentlemen, start your engines.

Uh Oh

Operacion Puerto lurks behind every discussion of cycling right now, the explosive Spanish case about blood doping. The judge unsealed the evidence record yesterday, and the first names are being leaked to the press. A short list, all unconfirmed as to their guilt or innocence:

Ivan Basso
Jan Ullrich
Joseba Beloki
Roberto Heras
Tyler Hamilton
Santiago Botero
Jose Enrique Gutierrez
Oscar Sevilla
Denis Menchov
Francisco Mancebo

Some of these guys have been caught in doping scandals before (notably Hamilton and Heras), but Ivan Basso?! If this list is even halfway accurate, will the Tour organizers go after these guys with the same fervor they have hounded Armstrong and Vinokourov, two guys who aren't implicated. Will there even be a Tour left?

And how do the TdF organizers decide who they are going to hound relentlessly and who they are going to give a free pass to? Because all of a sudden the organizer aren't sure of what they are going to do? It's easy to talk tough when it's only one rider. It's a lot harder when it means kicking out virtually every contender. It took an arbitrator's ruling to let Vino in. And he's one of the guys NOT implicated.

This is shaping up to be a very ugly Tour.

Wednesday, June 28, 2006

The Team Preview

Picks to come, but until then...

What does each team bring to the Tour & what can we expect from them?

Discovery Channel
JASON: They bring an excellent team, the best manager, and no leader. Perhaps they say they are riding for George Hincapie. Why not? He’s been the ultimate team player and Yaroslav Popovych is a year away from becoming the leader. So, I suspect they’ll give Hincapie support and hope for a top 10 finish. Given the quality of this team, though, they really ought to aim for 2+ stage wins or perhaps the best team time.

STEVE: There’s this Savoldelli guy on the team who I hear is pretty good. They might want to ride for him. I agree that Popovych, the defending white jersey champ, is a year or two away. Then again, Menchov has been a year or two away for almost half a decade. The big mystery of this Tour is what it will look like post-Lance. Why would they bother to put forth the effort to dominate the peleton? Win a few stages, contend for the podium, but generally, just use this as a consolidation year.


AG2r
JASON: Every year we say what they need is a legit yellow jersey threat. Answer: Francisco Mancebo. On top of that they have Moreau for support in the mountains or perhaps a run at the polka dot jersey. This is AG2r’s big chance to be more than an also ran.

STEVE: Once a joke, AG2r has developed into a fine team. They aren’t a heavy hitter, but they aren’t making a mockery of their bid. And of course Moreau is going to make a run at dots in his usual cowardly way. He has perfected the Richard Virenque strategy of gobbling points on meaningless climbs and then getting thrashed on the big climbs. The fact this strategy works is disgraceful. I’m not sure how they are going to support Mancebo, a legit podium threat. It’s a real put up or shut up year for these guys.


CSC
JASON: This team means business. Yellow jersey favorite? Check (Ivan Basso). Time trial stud? Check (David Zabriskie). Green jersey contender? Check (Stu O’Grady). Mountain domestique? Check (Carlos Sastre). Gutsy rider who will do anything asked of him? Check (Jens Voigt). Old veteran to control the peloton on flats or mountains? Check (Bobby Julich). Remember how USPS/Discovery owned the Tour? This team can do it too.

STEVE: This team is loaded. And not in the Telekom sense of lots of big name riders who will stab each other in the back on a moment’s notice. Everyone knows who the Man is: Ivan Basso. You think David Zabriskie is gonna try and steal some of Basso’s glory? Sastre? Julich? These guys are pro’s pros. They know their role, and they also know any chance they ever had to win the Tour is long gone. They can only win by basking in the reflected glow of Basso, much like the old Posties. Though O’Grady will still ride for the Green, which shouldn’t hurt the team at all. And how cool is Voigt?


Telekom
JASON: For them it’s all about Jan Ullrich. If he wins this thing then Telekom ends the nightmare that they have endured for several years. The team is pretty solid with fine domestiques like Guerini and Sevilla. Kloden and Kessler are tough riders. Honchar and Rogers are excellent in the time trial. Will Ullrich have his best? Will the team actually function well?

STEVE: See the Tour organizers welcome the suspected drug dope, Ullrich, with open arms. It’s all a big misunderstanding, they say. Maybe it is. See those same people hound Lance. Roll eyes. Repeat.

OK, let’s talk about Team Dysfunction. Really, Telekom is the most entertaining team every year because you know they are going to implode, the only question is when and how. It seems they find new ways to screw each other over each its Tour, trying to top the previous year’s effort. Because we all know Ullrich won’t win, not for lack of talent but for lack of mental toughness. My money is on the newcomer, Michael Rogers, to chafe in his role as water-carrier and make his stab for the lead about Stage 14. Which will open the door for Kloden. I expect it to be great fun. Why is a tough-as-nails, no-nonsense rider like Kessler on this team?


Bogus Telecom
JASON: Familiar French names and familiar French expectations -- low.

STEVE: Laurent Brochard will usually ride hard and finish right around 30th place. Maybe someone will win a stage. I’ve always had a soft spot for Rous, but he’s not a real threat. I’ve got nothing interesting to say, so let’s move along.


Cassie d’ Epargne—Illes Balaeres
JASON: OK, STOP CHANGING THE TEAM NAME AND STOP MAKING IT LONGER EVERY TIME. On this webpage, it’s Banesto. With Oscar Pereiro, Vlad Karpets, and Alejandro Valverde, this team can do some real damage. Will they aim for stages or will they work for one man to win yellow?

STEVE: Pereiro only finished 16 minutes back, 11 minutes Basso. He has to be considered a dark horse, but was that the peak of his ability? Valverde is another real interesting name being thrown into the mix, but I’m skeptical of his chances. It’s a solid team that’s sort of on the verge of recapturing their glory years under Indurain, but not really. Is this the future of Discovery?


Astana Wurth
JASON: I’d like to say they are bringing the wildest wild card in the Tour (Al Vinokourov), but that might not happen. The team is still rolled up in doping scandal that destroyed their Giro. The Tour wants them banned. If that happens, then we’ll be missing the most exciting racer out there.

STEVE: The cycling gods hate Vino. I don’t know what else to say about this guy, who simply cannot buy a break. Ever since he showed Ullrich the back wheel, he’s been consistently screwed over, usually by Telekom. To be clear, Vino is not implicated in the doping scandal surrounding this team. Yet.


Cofids
JASON: There was a time when Cofidis was a good team that challenged for hardware. Now it is a collection of domestiques. Unless Chavanel finally becomes the great French cyclist they’ve been telling us he’d be for 5 years, their only hope of anything positive rests in David Moncoutie.

STEVE: Hey! Moncoutie won a stage last year! And, and... er, I got nothing. Their highest finisher from the last Tour was Vasseur. And he finished a hour and a half back. Which pretty much sums up this year’s team. Maybe they can win on Bastille Day again. The French always like that.


Credit Agricole
JASON: Thor Hushovd is back to defend the green jersey. Try winning a stage this time. For fun keep an eye on Laszlo Bodrogi—see if he can stay upright.

STEVE: They were on the cusp a few years ago, and have done nothing but backslide since then. OK, Moreau was sort of competitive in his own way last year, but he’s now off to greener pastures. This team has nothing to shoot for other than Thor Hushovd’s green jersey pursuit. Unless Caucchioli suddenly becomes, ya know, good.


Rabobank
JASON: Speaking of not staying upright, our man Erik Dekker returns. This team has a lot of talent—5 former stage winners plus Denis Menchov. Last year’s surprise, Michael Rasmussen is back, but he’ll catch no one by surprise this time. The question for him is will he go for the King of the Mountains again or aim for yellow.

STEVE: Dekker! Sure, he finished 3 hours back in 2005, keeping alive his three-year streak of finishes ranked in the triple digits (136th, 133rd, and 109th). He’s come to symbolize everything we love in the Tour. He rides hard, has won four stages, and has as much chance of winning this thing as I do. You forgot about Boogerd, who at least cracked the top 25 and was top 5 in dots as well. We’re both sort of wary of Rasmussen, not sure if last year was a complete and total fluke. But he did defend the hell out of the jersey and actually earned it. Menchov further complicates things, he’s the new team leader. This is a super interesting team, and I have absolutely no read on them. After last year’s great Tour (won the dots, 18 jerseys, and 2 stages), maybe they are due for an absolute crash and burn. Fitting for a team with Erik Dekker.


Davitamon
JASON: It’s the teamless team. Robbie McEwen is a favorite to win green and he may or may not use his team for help. Cadel Evans can repeat his solo effort to crack the top 10 without help from his team. Chris Horner can think about the odd breakaway, again, with no help from the team.

STEVE: In the team’s defense, McEwen doesn’t seem to like help. He just stalks his biggest rival, lets that team do the work, and then rocket by everyone in the last 100 meters. Which means the old Lotto team can maybe, just maybe, try and get Evans on the podium. Look, he’s not winning this thing, but Horner is a capable domestique and this is a wide open race.


Gerolsteiner
JASON: Is this the year for Levi Leipheimer? They return pretty much the same team that they had in 2005, which isn’t bad, but can they improve?

STEVE: The great American hope. And let’s not forget Georg Totschnig, perhaps the most underrated cyclist in the world (who is also in desperate need of some vowels). He’s always hanging around the top ten, and usually finishes all the brutal stages up with the big boys. Yet he never gets the credit. OK, I think he rides as a super domestique to Leipheimer, but who else has a #2 guy as strong? Basso for sure. Ullrich, if Kloden decides to help him. Everyone else has a rival, not a domestique (like the difficult pairing of Savoldelli with Popovych). I want Leipheimer to make the podium just because I like Totschnig so much.


Euskaltel
JASON: I predict Mayo will last all the way until stage 16 this time before abandoning.

STEVE: You’ve finally given up on your Basque boys. They have become an increasing embarrassment on each and every Tour. I’m at a loss. It’s just ugly.


Lampre
JASON: If this were the Giro I’d be impressed by a team bringing Damiano Cunego and Sal Commesso. But it’s not, and I’m not. Just who is Cunego fooling by lining up for this race?

STEVE: Speaking of dropouts by Stage 16. Cunego is a hell of a cyclist, and maybe this is the year he rides the Tour for real. Armstrong is gone, the door is wide open, and the favorite is an Italian. Why would you let the glory go to your countryman, when you could have it for yourself?


FdJ
JASON: Their roster is full of domestiques and nobodies. Somehow they usually find a way to distinguish themselves. How will they do it this time? Beats me.

STEVE: I’m always thoroughly impressed by FdJ. They do more with less than any other team in the Tour. They made the most of their gift bids almost a decade ago to transform themselves into a real solid team. Casar finished fifth in the Giro, so if he ups his game, he’s on the podium. Which would be the first time a Frenchman mattered in this race in long time. I don’t think Casar will make the podium, but it’s at least not a completely ridiculous scenario. Though they would be thrilled with a top ten. Or a top twenty.


Milram
JASON: Erik Zabel is back even though Telekom sent him into retirement two years ago. I hope he throttles them, but I know he’s too old. But is one more stage win too much to ask for the best Grand Tour sprinter of all time?

STEVE: For all of the talk about Lance, which is well-deserved, let’s lift our glasses to perhaps the greatest cyclist of the past decade. He’s a sprinter, a completely different kind of rider than Lance, but just as successful. This guy has a closet full of green jerseys, and while he won’t win another one, it’s nice that he’s in the race. And since he took his last victory lap pretty damn seriously, he may even crack the top five in points. I put nothing past the guy. Write him off at your own peril. Hell, he might win the green out of sheer spite. Telekom’s star is Ullrich, my ass.


Phonak
JASON: If they can look beyond all the drug scandals that have hit their team in the last two years they may be able to concentrate on Floyd Landis, who has a legit shot at the yellow jersey.

STEVE: He’s not Lance and he’s not Levi, but Landis is a solid, solid rider. The loss of Pereiro will really hurt him, but their co-existence was always sort of tenuous. Who’s going to be his domestique, Merckx? Pena? Jalabert? I don’t see it. His team will let him down. I don’t see him as a legit threat to win. Maybe the top five.


Quick Step
JASON: After crashing out of the Tour last year Tom Boonen would probably walk on hot coals to get the green jersey back now.

STEVE: It was his jersey to lose, and lost it he did. He held the green jersey every day but one. He had won two stages already. He just had to survive the mountains and then put his foot down in the last week. Hell, he didn’t finish, and still was ninth in total points. If there is one guy to root for in this year’s Tour, it is Tom Boonen. Bettini is always good for a highlight clip or two, and there’s the off chance Garate can follow up his impressive Giro. It’s a very off chance.


Saunier
JASON: The biggest whiner in cycling (Simoni) and the dope cheat returning from suspension (Millar) on the same team. Need a team to mock when you aren’t making fun of Euskaltel? This is it.

STEVE: Just when we were running out of people to hate. I mean, Virenque is gone and mocking Moreau isn’t nearly as much fun. But the choking dog Simoni along with the delusional Millar? Sign me up! Remember when Millar publicly sold out his team when his chain broke during a time trial? We have all sorts of bitching and whining to look forward to.


Liquigas
JASON: I don’t expect much from them since they are an Italian team, and they don’t exactly perform at the Tour. But they only have 4 Italians on the squad, so maybe they will take it seriously.

STEVE: And those non-Italians are: Mugerli, Carlstrom, Calcagni, Backstedt, and Albasani. A real roster of superstars there. They can take the race as seriously as they want, they still ain’t finishing within two hours of yellow. Which leaves everything to Garzelli and DiLuca. If DiLuca finishes, it will be a Tour first.


Agritubel
JASON: A wild card team made up of guys I can’t recognize. Just once I’d like to see one of these crummy wild card teams actually ride like mad to earn their spot.

STEVE: Look, they suck. But to say a French wild card has never ridden hard is not true. OK, they haven’t shown up in a long time, and if they finish in the top 20 in any stage, much less the race, it would be a major accomplishment. But maybe we’ll find out what their jersey looks like by Stage 10. Where have you gone, BigMat? All is forgiven.

Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Gearing up for the Tour

photo from cycling4all.com

I’m anticipating the 2006 Tour de France so much that I actually think about it while the World Cup is on. After 7 years of the Tour de Lance, I’m ready for something new. It was great watching such a superior athlete with a great personal story, but Lance’s dominance got to be a bit boring and perhaps bad for the Tour. A year ago he predicted that the 2006 Tour would be very different tactically, and I think he is right. Year after year he won because he was strongest in both time trials and climbing. He also had a team that could control the peloton. Everyone knew it, so there was a psychological edge too. This year there is a void—only one former winner will be participating.

The closest thing to the Lance—USPostal/Discovery dominance is Ivan Basso and his CSC team. Basso is the best climber among the contenders, but while he is an elite time trialist, he is not the best. The CSC team is great, and they along with Discovery Channel are the only teams with the personnel to control the peloton in the mountains. So, yeah, there is an heir apparent, but really the yellow jersey is up for grabs. Rather than hoping Lance catches the flu, every contender has real reasons to believe he can win. Later in the week we’ll review the contenders and the teams. For now, let’s examine the course.

Breaking the trend of the last couple years, there is no team time trial. I’m not upset. I think the TTT ought to be common, but not mandatory in the course. Besides, the Tour organizers have bent over backwards to minimize its effect. Without it, a slight advantage is removed from the contenders on great teams.

The big issue of time trials is that in addition to the prologue, there are two very long individual time trials. Stage 7 is 52 km and Stage 19 is 56 km. It’s as though Jan Ullrich’s mom designed the course. The contenders will be separated by several minutes on these long time trials.

At first glance it looks like the Tour is a bit weak on mountains. There are only 5 days with big climbs, and on the first (Stage 10) the last climb is over 40 km from the finish, so we probably will not see a big shake up that day. That leaves only 4 days in the mountains to separate the contenders, but all 4 days are brutal. Stage 11 in the Pyrenees is 208 km and has 5 climbs, starting with the 18.4 km Tourmalet at 7.7% incline. By the time that stage ends, the standings will be a mess. Three days in the Alps are no less strenuous: Stage 15 is Alpe d’Huez; Stage 16 has over 80 km of incline; Stage 17 is another 5-mountain route spread over 199 km. No, this Tour isn’t soft on climbs, it’s just that they are compacted into fewer days than normal. Two days after the last climb the riders get to decide the race on the final time trial.

It seems as though the Tour organizers wanted to favor the extremes. Long time trials favor the time trial specialist. Compacting several rough climbs per day favors a pure climber. Winning the Tour is all about exploiting your advantage and minimizing your weakness. On this course, whether your weakness is climbing or time trialing, it will be exposed, big time.

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