Stage 8 Analysis
A category 2 climb 15 km from the finish separates the contenders from the peloton, not from each other. Don't read too much into the results of stage 8. The Tour will be decided not when 86 riders finish within 3 minutes of the stage winner, but when the lead group of elite climbers gets blown apart on big climbs at the finish. Look to stage 10, which ends with a category 1 climb, stage 14, which has a category 1 and an HC in the final 30 km, and stage 15, which has 4 category 1 climbs and a final HC climb.
Is the shoe on the other foot in regards to Telekom and Discovery? Telekom now has all of their three contenders in the top 10, less than 2 minutes behind Armstrong. They've had two different guys finish second in the last 3 stages. The attacks are threatening Armstrong's position. It looks worse when Armstrong gets isolated. Not one of his teammates could climb the mountain with him today. The yellow jersey group had 32 men in it--what are the odds Beltran, Asevedo, Rubiera, Savoldeli, Popovych, and Hincapie can't make that climb?
At first when I saw it I figured that the team decided not to waste the energy. They were really moving fast--about 40 kph. With 15 km of decent after the climb, I assumed they figured there could not be much damage done. Just save strength for later.
That may be true, but even so, they need to look strong, not weak, because that encourages attacks. Best case--they are bluffing. Worst case--the whole team caught some infection and they are going to drop like flies.
More likely, they just weren't prepared for such a fast tempo on that climb. We've always seen these guys riding a slower tempo on harder climbs to break the competition down. This was certainly an odd climb.
Stage 9 will be an odd one too. There is a category 2 climb, followed by a category 1, but it is 55 km from the finish. Really, the contenders would be silly to attack on these mountains because if they drop anyone, they'll be isolated for over an hour on the way to the finish. They'll wear down and the whole thing will backfire. This is a stage built for the guys who want to win the King of the Mountains. Attack early; get your points, then cruise on in.
Still, an attack from Vinokourov should always be expected, so if I'm Johan Bruyneel, I send Savoldeli or Rubiera in the early breakaway just in case the rest of the team loses it on the climbs again. That way, Lance will have a teammate to join him if needed.
I don't expect fireworks tomorrow. I expect an explosion on Tuesday's stage.
Other notes on stage 8.
Congrats to Pete Weening for winning the stage. He almost screwed it up by sprinting too late. Rookie! And did you notice how he spat on his own face. He was shooting out more saliva than Harry Carey. (photo below from velonews.com)
Rabobank have been all over the place. Weening got their stage win today, but they have had three different guys wear the polka dot jersey so far. Nice going, and we haven't even mentioned Denis Menchov yet.
Joseba Beloki did finish in the yellow jersey group. It's good to see he can handle a decent climb. No one is expecting a win, Joseba, just keep riding well to Paris.
Popovych lost the white jersey to Karpets by 1 second. Doh! That's what you get for taking it easy.
Dave Zabriskie was an hour behind the winner and barely missed being elimiated. He's still suffering from that crash earlier in the week and is only a few seconds away from going from yellow jersey to lantern rouge.
On a day off for the sprinters, Thor Hushovd jumped off the peloton to join a breakaway after McEwen & Boonen had been dropped. He took 6 points in an intermediate sprint. That other guy who writes on this page laughed at the idea of going for intermediate sprint points, but he needs to consider this. In the last 2 stages Thor has scored 12 in the IS; Boonen has scored 8; McEwen has scored zero. Today Boonen's lead on Hushovd is 5 points and his lead on McEwen is 37. These things are not insignificant. However, the none of the sprinters are going to pick up points in stage 9, as all the IS are after the first big climb.
Is the shoe on the other foot in regards to Telekom and Discovery? Telekom now has all of their three contenders in the top 10, less than 2 minutes behind Armstrong. They've had two different guys finish second in the last 3 stages. The attacks are threatening Armstrong's position. It looks worse when Armstrong gets isolated. Not one of his teammates could climb the mountain with him today. The yellow jersey group had 32 men in it--what are the odds Beltran, Asevedo, Rubiera, Savoldeli, Popovych, and Hincapie can't make that climb?
At first when I saw it I figured that the team decided not to waste the energy. They were really moving fast--about 40 kph. With 15 km of decent after the climb, I assumed they figured there could not be much damage done. Just save strength for later.
That may be true, but even so, they need to look strong, not weak, because that encourages attacks. Best case--they are bluffing. Worst case--the whole team caught some infection and they are going to drop like flies.
More likely, they just weren't prepared for such a fast tempo on that climb. We've always seen these guys riding a slower tempo on harder climbs to break the competition down. This was certainly an odd climb.
Stage 9 will be an odd one too. There is a category 2 climb, followed by a category 1, but it is 55 km from the finish. Really, the contenders would be silly to attack on these mountains because if they drop anyone, they'll be isolated for over an hour on the way to the finish. They'll wear down and the whole thing will backfire. This is a stage built for the guys who want to win the King of the Mountains. Attack early; get your points, then cruise on in.
Still, an attack from Vinokourov should always be expected, so if I'm Johan Bruyneel, I send Savoldeli or Rubiera in the early breakaway just in case the rest of the team loses it on the climbs again. That way, Lance will have a teammate to join him if needed.
I don't expect fireworks tomorrow. I expect an explosion on Tuesday's stage.
Other notes on stage 8.
Congrats to Pete Weening for winning the stage. He almost screwed it up by sprinting too late. Rookie! And did you notice how he spat on his own face. He was shooting out more saliva than Harry Carey. (photo below from velonews.com)
Rabobank have been all over the place. Weening got their stage win today, but they have had three different guys wear the polka dot jersey so far. Nice going, and we haven't even mentioned Denis Menchov yet.
Joseba Beloki did finish in the yellow jersey group. It's good to see he can handle a decent climb. No one is expecting a win, Joseba, just keep riding well to Paris.
Popovych lost the white jersey to Karpets by 1 second. Doh! That's what you get for taking it easy.
Dave Zabriskie was an hour behind the winner and barely missed being elimiated. He's still suffering from that crash earlier in the week and is only a few seconds away from going from yellow jersey to lantern rouge.
On a day off for the sprinters, Thor Hushovd jumped off the peloton to join a breakaway after McEwen & Boonen had been dropped. He took 6 points in an intermediate sprint. That other guy who writes on this page laughed at the idea of going for intermediate sprint points, but he needs to consider this. In the last 2 stages Thor has scored 12 in the IS; Boonen has scored 8; McEwen has scored zero. Today Boonen's lead on Hushovd is 5 points and his lead on McEwen is 37. These things are not insignificant. However, the none of the sprinters are going to pick up points in stage 9, as all the IS are after the first big climb.
posted by uberschuck at 2:10 PM
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