Stages 10 &11: Two Days in the Mountains
Nothing like some mountains to sort out the contenders.
Armstrong's in yellow, Rasmussen's in dots, T-Mobile is in tatters, Valverde's in white, Voigt's out of the race, and we've got one hell of a race on our hands. Armstrong's up by 38 seconds on Rasmussen. He can reasonably expect to extend that on a time trial, but its close enough that Discovery's got to be nervous. Rasmussen hung with the pace for two days on the toughest climbs. Behind him, Moreau is 2:34 and Basso is 2:40 behind, respectively. Only four more riders are within four minutes an just another four with in five.
We're so used to Armstrong blowing up the field, this feels extraordinarily close, even though we know its not. Barring a crash, there's almost no chance of Armstrong losing that much time to anyone. However, if some misfortune should befall him: a crash, a really bad climb, something... then it is wide open. But Armstrong just doesn't seem to have bad days.
Rasmussen's waking up each morning and pinching himself. He's close to the lead in the GC, but he's come about as close to saying "I have no chance of winning the yellow jersey" as is appropriate. But he is just killing people for the climbing points. Ever since taking that huge 48 point lead in Stage 9, he's concentrated on the dots. His lead is up to 71, and he's making sure to get points on every major climb. He stuck with Lance on Stage 10 right up until the last kilometer, and happily picked up 22 points. On Stage 11, Moreau raced him to the pinnacle on both climbs to pick up a grand total of three points on Rasmussen. He's come in right behind to minimize the damage each time. I'm not sure how he can lose the dots, but I'm sure its possible.
What's going on with Illes Balears? They had two riders in the top four on the brutal Stage 10, including stage winner Alejandro Valverde. Francisco Mancebo's finally living up to some of that white jersey-winning promise. They actually followed it up by finishing with the yellow jersey today. They didn't burn themselves out on that one big day, it seems their progress is legit. Mancebo's in eighth (-4:00) and Valverde's in fifth (-3:16) overall. Seriously, neither is out of it, the only team with two legit contenders. What were the odds we'd say that after Stage 11?
Why can they say that? Because T-Mobile got their ass kicked. Actually, that's unfair, T-Mobile had a pretty good day overall, its just that none of their riders finished within two minutes of Armstrong. Of course, only five teams did. They had a decent day, just not a great one. Unfortunately, the standard for T-Mobile is excellence, and they didn't live up. If Team Phonak would have had two riders finish 2:14 behind the stage winner, we'd say they had a really good day. And that's not to pick on Phonak, Phonak's a damn good team. Instead they had one rider (Landis) finish 2:14 down and another finish (Botero) finish down 2:50. But you don't hear anyone talking about Phonak's bad Stage 10.
T-Mobile's got a rider in 9th, 10th, and 12th. That's pretty good, but at this point, you can pretty much say they have no shot at winning the yellow jersey. One guy might make a run at the podium, but its asking too much to pick up 4:02 on Armstrong while, and this is the important part, leap-frogging seven other riders. Down four minutes in 2nd is completely different than down four minutes in 9th. Adding insult to injury, T-Mobile's team time is still second to Team CSC. They can't even win that.
How's that decision to leave Zabel at home looking?
Finally, let's get into the guys who just got punished. Voigt finished outside the time limit, so he is out of the race. Both CSC riders to wear yellow are no longer riding. Maybe Basso shouldn't win the thing or he'd get struck by lightning.
There are six riders two hours out of first. You know how good you have to be to lose to Armstrong by two hours? 167 riders left.
Armstrong's in yellow, Rasmussen's in dots, T-Mobile is in tatters, Valverde's in white, Voigt's out of the race, and we've got one hell of a race on our hands. Armstrong's up by 38 seconds on Rasmussen. He can reasonably expect to extend that on a time trial, but its close enough that Discovery's got to be nervous. Rasmussen hung with the pace for two days on the toughest climbs. Behind him, Moreau is 2:34 and Basso is 2:40 behind, respectively. Only four more riders are within four minutes an just another four with in five.
We're so used to Armstrong blowing up the field, this feels extraordinarily close, even though we know its not. Barring a crash, there's almost no chance of Armstrong losing that much time to anyone. However, if some misfortune should befall him: a crash, a really bad climb, something... then it is wide open. But Armstrong just doesn't seem to have bad days.
Rasmussen's waking up each morning and pinching himself. He's close to the lead in the GC, but he's come about as close to saying "I have no chance of winning the yellow jersey" as is appropriate. But he is just killing people for the climbing points. Ever since taking that huge 48 point lead in Stage 9, he's concentrated on the dots. His lead is up to 71, and he's making sure to get points on every major climb. He stuck with Lance on Stage 10 right up until the last kilometer, and happily picked up 22 points. On Stage 11, Moreau raced him to the pinnacle on both climbs to pick up a grand total of three points on Rasmussen. He's come in right behind to minimize the damage each time. I'm not sure how he can lose the dots, but I'm sure its possible.
What's going on with Illes Balears? They had two riders in the top four on the brutal Stage 10, including stage winner Alejandro Valverde. Francisco Mancebo's finally living up to some of that white jersey-winning promise. They actually followed it up by finishing with the yellow jersey today. They didn't burn themselves out on that one big day, it seems their progress is legit. Mancebo's in eighth (-4:00) and Valverde's in fifth (-3:16) overall. Seriously, neither is out of it, the only team with two legit contenders. What were the odds we'd say that after Stage 11?
Why can they say that? Because T-Mobile got their ass kicked. Actually, that's unfair, T-Mobile had a pretty good day overall, its just that none of their riders finished within two minutes of Armstrong. Of course, only five teams did. They had a decent day, just not a great one. Unfortunately, the standard for T-Mobile is excellence, and they didn't live up. If Team Phonak would have had two riders finish 2:14 behind the stage winner, we'd say they had a really good day. And that's not to pick on Phonak, Phonak's a damn good team. Instead they had one rider (Landis) finish 2:14 down and another finish (Botero) finish down 2:50. But you don't hear anyone talking about Phonak's bad Stage 10.
T-Mobile's got a rider in 9th, 10th, and 12th. That's pretty good, but at this point, you can pretty much say they have no shot at winning the yellow jersey. One guy might make a run at the podium, but its asking too much to pick up 4:02 on Armstrong while, and this is the important part, leap-frogging seven other riders. Down four minutes in 2nd is completely different than down four minutes in 9th. Adding insult to injury, T-Mobile's team time is still second to Team CSC. They can't even win that.
How's that decision to leave Zabel at home looking?
Finally, let's get into the guys who just got punished. Voigt finished outside the time limit, so he is out of the race. Both CSC riders to wear yellow are no longer riding. Maybe Basso shouldn't win the thing or he'd get struck by lightning.
There are six riders two hours out of first. You know how good you have to be to lose to Armstrong by two hours? 167 riders left.
posted by Poseur at 6:46 PM
2 Comments:
You are being too hard on Telekom, but you're not all wrong. Your analysis of having three guys in slots 9-12 is right on. Let's give major kudos to Vinokourov for bouncing back today. That was a brutal assault on the Tour's toughest climbs. Telekom is riding exactly like we'd expect a team of all-stars without a defined leader or goal to ride. They are, as you said a week ago, dysfunctional. Instead of putting their efforts into protecting and launching one man, they have an ad hoc policy of doing whatever feels best at the moment. Telekom squanders some of the finest talent in the world with bad management.
Yesterday I mentioned Rasmussen's dilemma of being a marked man, thus preventing him from jumping out to get climbing points. That dilemma was neutralized in stage 11 because the breakaway was made up of team leaders who had to be chased closely by the yellow jersey group. That put a limit on the number and gap to the breakaways, allowing Rasmussen to get lots of points while staying close to the fold. It could not have worked out any better for him. Right now I'm wondering how his legs will be in the second set of mountains. People often have trouble in the second group (e.g. Mancebo in 2004). Will he? Well, last year Rasmussen was stronger in the latter climbing stages, though he didn't ride hard in the first. We'll have to wait & see. Even if he stinks up the joint, he probably will not be caught on points.
And just what was Thor Hushovd thinking? You know I'm a big fan of the IS points, but that was just nutty for a sprinter to try a solo ride of 90 km--with Mt. Madeline on the route--just for 6 points. A dumb move, even if it had worked.
But why didn't Oscar Pereiro learn his lesson about attacking before the last climb? Trying it once is bad. Trying it on two consecutive days is ridiculous.
Vlad Karpets fell off the map in stage 11. I think he finished in the Autobus. He must be sick. It's a pity he's so weak, because Mancebo and Valverde are so strong that Banesto would have a great shot at the team competition if he were riding like normal. But if they can't overtake CSC in the mountains, they surely will not catch them in the time trial.
I thought I was fair to Telekom. I pointed out they rode better than just about everyone, and if Phonak had their ride in Stage 10 we would be raving about it. But they set the bar higher, and they didn't reach it. They aren't here to win some stages or take the team competition, they are here to win a yellow jersey. And in that quest, they have failed. They are not going to win it.
Are they one of the strongest teams on the course? Absolutely. I'd rank them third or fourth behind Discovery and CSC. I rank them even with Illes, Phonak, and to be fair to the minor classifications, Rabobank and Credit Agricole. They created this standard, and I'm holding them to it. They rode well, but riding well doesn't cut it. They need a superb ride.
Who's going to contest the points? The only guy who fits the profile of making an insane one-man break to pick up points is Moreau. And there ain't no way anyone's letting him go. Rasmussen doesn't have to be great, he just has to do well enough. and really, just on the first climbs of the day, he can bomb out on the last mountain, secure in his points.
Hushovd's strategy was daring, bold, and frankly reckless. I loved it. I wanted to mention it, but simply forgot which is my fault entirely. I think we're both rooting for Thor to win the Green, so this was a huge oversight. It's just easy to forget about those sprints in the mountains. He actually had made the points compeition competitive by picking up every last point he could. and it worked, didn't it?
And who busts out of the tour? Tom Boonen. boonene didn't start Stage 12, and I'm going to have more to say about that in my Stage review post, so I'll just mark the topic. Hushovd's now in green, which means we get to correct the oversight of not talking about him.
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