Tuesday, July 12, 2005

An explosion on Tuesday's stage

I expected a great showdown in stage 10, but I wasn't expecteding Vinokourov to fizzle out harmlessly, nor was I expecting Discovery would go so soon. That was a massive surge that started about 15 km from the finish--a veritable light year in climbing terms. Let's take stock of the damage. Valverde crossed the line first, with Armstrong getting the same time. Mancebo and Rasmussen were 9 seconds away. And then...

5) Ivan Basso, at 1:02
6) Levi Leipheimer, at 1:15
9) Andreas Klöden, at 2:14
11) Floyd Landis, s.t.
13) Jan Ullrich, s.t.
14) Jorg Jaksch, at 2:19
15) Santiago Botero at 2:50
16) Christophe Moreau at 2:58
19) Yaroslav Popovych 03:59
24) Alexandre Vinokourov 05:18
33) Vladimir Karpets 06:38
37) Oscar Pereiro Sio 07:29
42) Roberto Heras 09:49
97) Iban Mayo 21:31

Mayo can complain about knee pain all he wants, but he sucked. He'll abandon tomorrow.

Why can't Heras ride the mountains anymore? It's as though he lost all his talent when he left USPS.

Oscar Pereiro just learned why a climber shouldn't burn off his legs on the flats. When you attack on the penultimate climb and continue on the flat, you burn yourself out for the final climb. And he finished behind both of his in-team rivals.

Vlad Karpets--what's the matter, don't you like the white jersey?

Popovych made a great recovery after the his crash. He was the last of Lance's domestiques today, and he made a masochistic surge that separated the top 4 from the rest of the elite climbers. Why is it that newcomers to Lance's team do so well as domestiques? Heras and Beltran both had their best moments as domestiques in their first tours with Lance. Now Popovych is outlasting the aces like Azevedo, Rubiera, and Beltran. How does this happen--are the rookies just too naive and willing to take punishment?

Jorg Jaksch was on the attack with Pereiro, but it's OK because 1) he's not a GC man or a climber and 2) he beat Pereiro by 5 minutes.

Ullrich, Kloden, Leipheimer, and Basso all did well to hang on. Really, they did strong rides, just not as strong as the lead group.

But what about Vinokourov? He lost 3 minutes to his rival teammates, so his claim to team leader is gone. What will he do now? Play domestique? Abandon? Go for a stage win?

Mancebo was great today, but I remember last year he was great in the early mountains but weak in the later ones, so we'll have to wait and see if he gets any better this year. Valverde now owns the white jersey and could keep it all the way to Paris.

Rasmussen is the revelation of the Tour. At 38 seconds behind Armstrong, he's the only guy within 2.5 minutes of the lead. He says he's just interested in the KoM competition, but he now has a problem. While he has a huge lead in the KoM, he's now a marked man. He can't race ahead of the peloton to pick up the points on Wednesday's climbs, so unless Rabobank rides tempo to cut down the breakaways, someone else is getting those points. Today there is no competition, but by the end of the day tomorrow, there might be. And if he doesn't fall in the standings, the same may be true when we get to the big climbs next weekend. Most riders wish they had his problems.

Armstrong did his usual rip-their-heart-out routine to put a lot of time on the rivals. He did the smart thing by not trying to drop Rasmussen, Velverde, and Mancebo. Had he been alone 10 km from the finish, he would have worn down and probably slid back. In exchange of the stage win, he got more time on Ullrich & Co.

This thing ain't over yet, but it sure looks familiar.

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