Stage 12: Vive La France!
Well, it hasn't been a bang-up Tour for the French. They have no real threat for any jersey, though Moreau is still in third in the GC, so we can safely say he's a podium shot. But going in to today they had no stage wins, a pretty embarrassing shut out. While the Italians and Spanish dominate their national Grand Tour, the French just host the party. It's the other countries supplying the talent.
So its nice to say David Moncoutie win a stage, particularly in Bastille Day. The French need something, anything, to cheer about. It was a stage built for a breakaway, lots of rolling hills on a day sandwiched in between mountain stages so the big guns would eb resting up a bit. This takes nothing away from Moncoutie, but he chose the perfect day for a break. It was almost guarranteed to succeed. Good for him.
Of course, the big news is that Tom Boonen withdrew from the race. I'll give Boonen credit, it wasn't that he saw the mountains and packed up his bike. He rode hard in the mountains, but he really had some lousy luck and looked like he was just killing himself. He just crashed too often. I give Petacchi a hard time for dropping out at the drop of the hat, but that is not what happened here. He defended the jersey, but the body just gave out.
Which means we have to re-evaluate the Green Jersey. I don't think anyone disputes that McEwen is the best pure sprinter left, but he's down 35 points. That's a lot. Hushovd doesn't have to beat McEwen, he just has to not lose really, really badly. O'Grady's down 23 points, which is about the edge of striking distance.
Let's look at the remaining course from a sprinter's point of view
Stage 13 is a sprinter's stage. All flat, with two intermediates as well. Plenty of points out there. Stage 14's got some brutal climbs, but the first 80km is pretty darn flat, and there are two sprints. It's probably worth risking the exhaustion to get on an early break and get those points. Stage 15 is built the same exact way. Early flats followed by some brutal climbs. given the sheer number of Category 1 climbs, the early break strategy is not as suited for this stage.
Stage 17 is much like today's rolling hills, while Stage 18 is a more extreme version. Almost no opportunity there. Then there won't really be a chance until the last day in Paris, Stage 21. This means that if you're going to make a move on Hushovd, you have to do it tommorrow or early the next day. McEwen and O'Grady are thinking attack, attack, attack. Hushovd's thinking about staying upright on his bike.
Which makes him a huge favorite at this point.
So its nice to say David Moncoutie win a stage, particularly in Bastille Day. The French need something, anything, to cheer about. It was a stage built for a breakaway, lots of rolling hills on a day sandwiched in between mountain stages so the big guns would eb resting up a bit. This takes nothing away from Moncoutie, but he chose the perfect day for a break. It was almost guarranteed to succeed. Good for him.
Of course, the big news is that Tom Boonen withdrew from the race. I'll give Boonen credit, it wasn't that he saw the mountains and packed up his bike. He rode hard in the mountains, but he really had some lousy luck and looked like he was just killing himself. He just crashed too often. I give Petacchi a hard time for dropping out at the drop of the hat, but that is not what happened here. He defended the jersey, but the body just gave out.
Which means we have to re-evaluate the Green Jersey. I don't think anyone disputes that McEwen is the best pure sprinter left, but he's down 35 points. That's a lot. Hushovd doesn't have to beat McEwen, he just has to not lose really, really badly. O'Grady's down 23 points, which is about the edge of striking distance.
Let's look at the remaining course from a sprinter's point of view
Stage 13 is a sprinter's stage. All flat, with two intermediates as well. Plenty of points out there. Stage 14's got some brutal climbs, but the first 80km is pretty darn flat, and there are two sprints. It's probably worth risking the exhaustion to get on an early break and get those points. Stage 15 is built the same exact way. Early flats followed by some brutal climbs. given the sheer number of Category 1 climbs, the early break strategy is not as suited for this stage.
Stage 17 is much like today's rolling hills, while Stage 18 is a more extreme version. Almost no opportunity there. Then there won't really be a chance until the last day in Paris, Stage 21. This means that if you're going to make a move on Hushovd, you have to do it tommorrow or early the next day. McEwen and O'Grady are thinking attack, attack, attack. Hushovd's thinking about staying upright on his bike.
Which makes him a huge favorite at this point.
posted by Poseur at 9:15 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home