Saturday, July 21, 2007

Kill them all and let God sort them out.

I confess I was going to use that title regardless of the outcome of Stage 13, set in the city of Albi, as a reference to the papal suppression of the Albigensian heresy in the 13th century.

Today the slaughter was perpetrated by our old pal Al Vinokourov, who apparently, is not quite dead. But team Astana also slaughtered the field, taking 3 of the top 4 places.

Whereas most of the cyclists were cautious to avoid falling on the wet roads (Kloden, Kashechkin, Popovych, Gusev, and Cancellara did fall), Vino was aggressive all over the course and seemed immune to the conditions. Obviously, he took his frustrations of the last several days out on his competitors.

Michael Rasmussen had the best time trial of his life and managed to hold on to the yellow jersey, albeit now by only 1 minute over Cadel Evans.

Speaking of Evans, he had an awesome ride and it was well-planned, as he got faster at each time check. To a lesser degree, so did Levi Leipheimer, who rose from 21st at the first time check to 9th at the finish. But Leipheimer wasn't even the best on his team--Popovych and Contador each beat him by 20 seconds. This trio from Discovery Channel really had an excellent day, but Astana outclassed everyone.

Casualties? As expected Iban Mayo still sucks at the time trial (+6:04). Valverde (+6:08) and Moreau (+9:26) were unexpectedly crappy. Their chances for yellow are shot.

Overall standings after stage 13:
Rasmussen (Rabobank)
Evans (Lotto) +1:00
Contador (Disco) +2:31
Kloden (Astana) +2:34
Leipheimer (Disco) +3:37
Kashechkin (Astana) +4:23
Sastre (CSC) +4:45
Astarloza (Euskaltel) +5:07
Vinokourov (Astana) +5:10

Draw a line after the top 4. Those guys are the top tier contenders. All can climb, and all have done well in the time trial. Leipheimer is just behind them. He hasn't been as strong, but can challenge them if he has a great day or if they falter. The problem for him is that he does not have the impetus to attack. Kashechkin, Sastre, and Astarloza are second class contenders. And then we have the wild card, Vinokourov. He's still over 5 minutes back, which is a long way. Even if you assume Rasmussen's good TT was a fluke, he's still 4:10 behind Evans and over 2.5 minutes behind Kloden. However, his win today shows he still has fight, and he still has the ability to make up time. He can't make up the gap in one day, but he can get within striking range with one great day in the mountains. He'll have his chance in the next 3 stages. I figure for Vino to have a shot at winning, at the start of the final time trial he needs to be within 90 seconds of Evans and Kloden, within 3 minutes of the rest.

Rasmussen has weathered the first storm and is now back on his own turf for 3 stages. However, after the TT, he looked spent. He was wobbly and coughing up on the podium. I think he hurt himself today. How well can he recover? Another thing about him is that in previous years he has been able to rest in between mountain stages, but this year he's had to defend the lead all week instead of holding reserve to recover. That may take a little spark out of him in the Pyrenees. I'm being to critical, though. Rasmussen picked the right day to have the best TT of his life.

Stage 14 is a monster, with a finish on Plateau de Beille. The other 3 times a TdF stage ended there the winner of the stage won the Tour. Don't miss stage 14!

Here's a preview from Vinokourov,
"What I can say now is that I will attack."

Well, that is what he does best.
Aside from Vino, be very afraid of Contador in the Pyrenees.

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