Stage 8: These Are Some Bad Men
The first real day of big movers and shakers, so there’s a lot to talk about. I’m going to dispense with the recap: Rasmussen won by a lot. Vino cracked, but not that bad. Rasmussen has a lot of new laundry. OK, onto the analysis. And Jason's right, he left a lot for me to talk about.
RASMUSSEN
We used to constantly bitch about KoM points and their distribution, but Rasmussen has sort of made that argument moot. He really is the best climber, he wins by large margins, and he gets the dots. Is the system still flawed? Yes. But at least the right guy is winning it, so who cares that much?
He’s in yellow right now, but the chances of Rasmussen actually winning the Tour de France are quite low. He’s a notoriously poor time trialist, so for him to have any shot, he’d have to build an absurd lead in the mountains. I don’t see how anyone lets him do that. I think it’s great he’s in yellow and I would love to see climber win the whole race, but let’s be honest. He’s a longshot. Though he does have better odds than Linus Gerdemann.
AUSTRALIA
It wasn’t supposed to go like this. Rogers made a bold move early in the stage. What does he get for his trouble? A crash on the descent which forced him to withdraw. I hate when a guy gets punished for being aggressive. Rogers made a decisive move to put his stamp on this race, and bad luck thwarted him. T-Mobile’s great hope went up in smoke. (Though Jason is right, the move was still stupid. I don't care. There's no need to kick a country while they are down)
Australia’s day got worse when Stuart O’Grady would crash on the same descent as Rogers. Rogers would hang on for a little bit longer, so O’Grady officially pulld out first. Of course, O’Grady had five broken ribs so we can let that slide. This is a guy who finished last year’s race with a broken back, so no one doubts his toughness.
Finally, Robbie McEwen is out of the race. He didn’t crash, but he finished outside the time limit, so his green jersey defense is over. It looked doomed anyway, as he has not been the same rider since his crash. Yet another contender drops out for the sprinter’s title, so Boonen had a good day just by finishing.
Australia's hopes are now entirely on Cadel Evans.
MOREAU
Over the years, I’ve taken my fair share of potshots at Moreau. Hell, I’ve probably taken several other people’s fair share of potshots as well. So this is gonna hurt me when I say this:
Moreau had one hell of a ride today.
Rasmussen won the combative rider award for the stage, but I can make a case for Moreau. He was the one who finally attacked from the peloton to lead the chase. He led that chase group almost the entire time as every rider seemed to stalk him, so Moreau did what appeared to be his only option: he constantly attacked the group. He spent the entire final climb trying to crack a pretty loaded group of Mayo, Valverde, Schleck, Evans, Kashechkin, and Contador. All of those riders were within 30 seconds of each other in the GC, but all marked Moreau as the threat.
Quite a dubious honor. Contador lost the group due to a mechanical problem (a theme for Discovery today – so did Leipheimer) and Mayo would successfully attack in the last km, but the group finished mostly together. These were the GC contenders who rose to the challenge. They didn’t put too much time into Vino and the other contenders, but maybe this is a sign that they are the strongest of the contenders.
But of these seven men, Moreau looked the strongest.
ASTANA
Kloden rode dutifully for Vino. When Vino cracked on the last of the climb, Kloden sat up and waited for him, guiding his leader to the line. The move probably cost Kloden about 30 seconds in the GC, and he sits one minute behind the biggest contenders. Vino is a minute and half behind him. It’s not time to abandon his domestique duties, but a decision has to be made soon. Which one is stronger?
Or is it Kashechin, who was in the chase group and now is fifth overall? The team is still working well together, but hard decisions have to be made soon. When do they give up on Vino? It’s not that time yet, but we are getting there.
MAYO
One day surge or a return to his previous form? I have no earthly idea. But he’s now in third overall. Of course, even when he was on form, he was possibly an even worse time trialist than Rasmussen.
VALVERDE
Of the major contenders, Valverde's in front. Sort of. If we eliminate the top three (Rasmussen and Mayo because of their demonstrated ability to not be able to time trial, Gerdemann because he’s in over his head), look at what the “real” GC standings are. This is an incredibly close race even after two days of climbs:
Valverde (Banesto) ---
Kashechkin (Astana) +:01
Evans (Lotto) +:02
Moreau (Ag2r) +:15
Contador (Discovery) +:19
Schleck (CSC) +:23
Menchov (Rabobank) +:28
Sastre (CSC) +:44
Kloden (Astana) +:55
Leipheimer (Discovery) +1:02
Pereiro (Banesto) +1:03
Zubeldia (Euskatel) +1:09
That’s 12 major contenders all within about a minute. Anyone who says they know anything about this year’s Tour is lying. It is wide open.
JENS VOIGT
How much do we love this guy?
RASMUSSEN
We used to constantly bitch about KoM points and their distribution, but Rasmussen has sort of made that argument moot. He really is the best climber, he wins by large margins, and he gets the dots. Is the system still flawed? Yes. But at least the right guy is winning it, so who cares that much?
He’s in yellow right now, but the chances of Rasmussen actually winning the Tour de France are quite low. He’s a notoriously poor time trialist, so for him to have any shot, he’d have to build an absurd lead in the mountains. I don’t see how anyone lets him do that. I think it’s great he’s in yellow and I would love to see climber win the whole race, but let’s be honest. He’s a longshot. Though he does have better odds than Linus Gerdemann.
AUSTRALIA
It wasn’t supposed to go like this. Rogers made a bold move early in the stage. What does he get for his trouble? A crash on the descent which forced him to withdraw. I hate when a guy gets punished for being aggressive. Rogers made a decisive move to put his stamp on this race, and bad luck thwarted him. T-Mobile’s great hope went up in smoke. (Though Jason is right, the move was still stupid. I don't care. There's no need to kick a country while they are down)
Australia’s day got worse when Stuart O’Grady would crash on the same descent as Rogers. Rogers would hang on for a little bit longer, so O’Grady officially pulld out first. Of course, O’Grady had five broken ribs so we can let that slide. This is a guy who finished last year’s race with a broken back, so no one doubts his toughness.
Finally, Robbie McEwen is out of the race. He didn’t crash, but he finished outside the time limit, so his green jersey defense is over. It looked doomed anyway, as he has not been the same rider since his crash. Yet another contender drops out for the sprinter’s title, so Boonen had a good day just by finishing.
Australia's hopes are now entirely on Cadel Evans.
MOREAU
Over the years, I’ve taken my fair share of potshots at Moreau. Hell, I’ve probably taken several other people’s fair share of potshots as well. So this is gonna hurt me when I say this:
Moreau had one hell of a ride today.
Rasmussen won the combative rider award for the stage, but I can make a case for Moreau. He was the one who finally attacked from the peloton to lead the chase. He led that chase group almost the entire time as every rider seemed to stalk him, so Moreau did what appeared to be his only option: he constantly attacked the group. He spent the entire final climb trying to crack a pretty loaded group of Mayo, Valverde, Schleck, Evans, Kashechkin, and Contador. All of those riders were within 30 seconds of each other in the GC, but all marked Moreau as the threat.
Quite a dubious honor. Contador lost the group due to a mechanical problem (a theme for Discovery today – so did Leipheimer) and Mayo would successfully attack in the last km, but the group finished mostly together. These were the GC contenders who rose to the challenge. They didn’t put too much time into Vino and the other contenders, but maybe this is a sign that they are the strongest of the contenders.
But of these seven men, Moreau looked the strongest.
ASTANA
Kloden rode dutifully for Vino. When Vino cracked on the last of the climb, Kloden sat up and waited for him, guiding his leader to the line. The move probably cost Kloden about 30 seconds in the GC, and he sits one minute behind the biggest contenders. Vino is a minute and half behind him. It’s not time to abandon his domestique duties, but a decision has to be made soon. Which one is stronger?
Or is it Kashechin, who was in the chase group and now is fifth overall? The team is still working well together, but hard decisions have to be made soon. When do they give up on Vino? It’s not that time yet, but we are getting there.
MAYO
One day surge or a return to his previous form? I have no earthly idea. But he’s now in third overall. Of course, even when he was on form, he was possibly an even worse time trialist than Rasmussen.
VALVERDE
Of the major contenders, Valverde's in front. Sort of. If we eliminate the top three (Rasmussen and Mayo because of their demonstrated ability to not be able to time trial, Gerdemann because he’s in over his head), look at what the “real” GC standings are. This is an incredibly close race even after two days of climbs:
Valverde (Banesto) ---
Kashechkin (Astana) +:01
Evans (Lotto) +:02
Moreau (Ag2r) +:15
Contador (Discovery) +:19
Schleck (CSC) +:23
Menchov (Rabobank) +:28
Sastre (CSC) +:44
Kloden (Astana) +:55
Leipheimer (Discovery) +1:02
Pereiro (Banesto) +1:03
Zubeldia (Euskatel) +1:09
That’s 12 major contenders all within about a minute. Anyone who says they know anything about this year’s Tour is lying. It is wide open.
JENS VOIGT
How much do we love this guy?
posted by Poseur at 5:07 PM
3 Comments:
In Saturday's time trial we're not only going to have these guys fighting each other, we're also going to have teammates fighting one another. Menchov needs to lay down the law on Rasmussen so that Rabobank has its house in order. For Disco it will be Leipheimer vs. Contador. Astana has the 3-way race among Kloden, Kashechkin, and Vinokourov. In CSC it will be Schleck vs. Sastre. Both time trials are long. The first is 54 km and the second is 55.5 km.
I think Kloden is the best time trialist of the lot.
Leipheimer's a pretty good TT man as well, though he laid an egg last year.
Still, Tuesday's another climbing day. We need to see if there will be another shakeup after the rest day.
Interesting to know.
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