Friday, July 09, 2004

What a difference two days makes!

American sports media doesn't understand cycling. They think the Tour is only "The Lance Armstrong Show" and nothing else. The guys at ESPN probably don't know what the Green jeresy is, and they probably think Levi Leipheimer is a Dutch jeans designer. So, I'm going to focus on the Green jersey in the aftermath of stage 6. As for the yellow--everyone got the same time and it seems as though none of the contenders were hurt in the crashes, so no change until tomorrow (maybe).

There was huge news today as Stuart O'Grady took the Green jeresy from Robbie McEwen. Prior to stage 5, O'Grady had 32 points, 10th overall and far behind McEwen's 93. In the last two days O'Grady has scored 83 points, 53 of which came in his stage 5 victory. He now is two points ahead of McEwen.

How'd this happen? Well, first their was O'Grady's big ride in stage 5. Amazingly, he had the legs to be second in the stage 6 sprint. And because of the crash at the end of stage 6, McEwen, Hushovd, and Nazon all failed to finish at the front, so no points for them. This has allowed a lot of sprinters to gain ground--O'Grady, Hondo, and Zabel did best. Check out this list of the top 10 after 6 stages.

place. Name, points (points in last two days)

1. Stuart O'Grady, 115 (+83)
2. Robbie McEwen, 113 (+20)
3. Danilo Hondo, 111 (+37)
4. Erik Zabel 107 (+41)
5. Jean-Patrick Nazon 101 (+16)
6. Jaan Kirsipuu 89 (+15)
7. Thor Hushovd 88 (+18)
8. Tom Boonen 75 (+35)
9. Baden Cooke 53 (+22)
10. Magnus Backstedt 50 (+40)

Cooke and Backstedt really have no chance of catching up. Boonen, Hushovd, and Kirsipuu are long shots, but still clinging to their chances. But ahead of them we have 5 men separated by 14 points. This could be a very tight finish, and remember, there aren't many sprinting points available once we hit the mountains. So these guys are going to be at each others throats for the next 5 stages.

McEwen is still the odds-on favorite to win--he's the best and he's high in the rankings. O'Grady has a ton of momentum and we know he'll nickel & dime his way through the intermediate sprints to keep pace. Zabel and Hondo lack the speed to win stages, but they have been consistent enough to put themselves in the thick of things. Nazon, Kirsipuu, and Boonen have all won a stage, and Hushovd was close. Another stage win by these guys would go a long way for their chances. But by no means should we expect someone to get an obscene number of points (like 80) in a two day period. On the other hand, anyone picking up less than 20 points in a bunch sprint may be kissing his chances goodbye.

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