Thursday, July 24, 2003

Stage 17

After the epic Stages 15 and 16, it was tough to ask for an encore. Really, what could live up to the standards set in the past three days? But Servais Knaven? There was an early breakaway and it held. So no real sprints, and the Green jersey standings remain practically unchanged. It was a serious non-starter of a stage.

How obscure is Knaven? In six previous Tours, his highest finish is 90th. Of course, he's failed to finish twice. He's finished worse than 100th in eight seperate stages this year. He's 123rd overall, 8th on his own team of Quick Step, over three and half hours out. Yet he now has a stage win.

It was that kind of day. Luttenberger was the highest-ranked rider in the lead group, at 13th overall. Parra was the only other rider in the top 50, and he got dropped by the group. The only other rider in the top 100 was 81st-ranked Commesso. The leaders sat back and cruised in together. This is exactly the kind of stage that Armstrong wants. It's exactly the stage the lead sprinters did not want.

Only three guys have realistic chance now:

1 COOKE Baden AUS FDJ 169 pts
2 MC EWEN Robbie AUS LOT 163 pts
3 ZABEL Erik GER TEL 157 pts

They finished 1-2-3 in the peleton, so Cooke gained a whopping 2 points over Zabel. I think both of the Aussies would have preferred there to be no lead group, so there could have been more of a split in the points given for finishing 1-2-3 overall. But FDJ and Lotto lack the skills to lead the chase and Telekom doesn't have the incentive. Zabel picked up points yesterday, take the day easy, lose only two points, and go for it all tommorrow. The clock is ticking, but Zabel is always a threat, particularly since he has the top team of the contenders.

Menchov has the white jersey wrapped up, CSC needs a disaster to lose the team title, Virenque will take home the polka dots. so the only competitions still in the air are the two biggest awards: Green and of course, Yellow. Three more stages to declare a winner. Yellow will be decided on Saturday, and the Green will probably come down to the final sprint.

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