Sunday, July 20, 2003

Stage 14--Vinokourov strikes back

Lance Armstrong and Jan Ullrich kept each other in check all day in stage 14, but they were so attentive of each other that Alexandre Vinokourov escaped on the final climb. Vinokourov beat them to the line by 43 seconds. That leaves Armstrong in yellow by 15 seconds over Ullrich, but Vinokourov is now just 18 seconds behind Armstrong. Just when we thought it couldn't get more interesting...

After the race, Armstrong was asked if he's only marking Ullrich, and he bluntly said yes. The way to bet is that either Ullrich or Armstrong will win, but the resiliant Vinokourov simply will not go away. Monday's stage could be decisive, and even if it is not, it will decide the starting order for the final time trial on Saturday.

Strategy: It may look like USPS has withered away, but I don't think so. They put Beltran in a breakaway, much like they did with Ruberia on Saturday. Because he was in the breakaway, and because Ullrich's team began to act the role of the team of the leader, USPS didn't ride tempo at the lead of the peloton. While they sat tight, Bianchi and Euskaltel set the tempo and made themselves tired. Lance's climbers, Rubiera, Beltran, and Heras all finished well back, so they may be a little less weary come Monday. Armstrong may have use for rested climbers at the foot of Monday's final climb.

Eventually it's going to become academic. Expect all of the top three to push the attack Monday. The strongest one will wear yellow for the time trial. It's that simple now.

What about Armstrong's form? He didn't look bad at all today. I thought he was holding back. It looks like he has recovered from his dehydration problem. Maybe his plan today was simply to stay next to Ullrich and conserved energy so that he can have more strength for the big race on Monday.

King of the Mountains
Richard Virenque was in the top three of all 6 climbs in stage 14. He now holds a 137 point lead over Laurent Dufaux. So long as he makes it to Paris and doesn't fail any drug tests, he'll win yet another polka dot jersey.

Team competition
CSC extended its lead over Banesto to nine minutes. Even though Tyler Hamilton slipped in the standings, he, Sastre, and Andrea Peron all had strong finishes on the day. Because CSC has better time trial riders than Banesto, this competition may be done.

Oh, by the way, Gilberto Simoni won the stage today. This is the rider who one month ago was trash-talking about beating Lance. He started the day over 90 minutes behind. Now he's got a stage win, so he & Saeco can at least say they did something good in the race. This isn't the glory he envisioned at the Tour, but winning his first TdF stage should make him feel a little better.

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