A response to Jason's rant
Hey, Jason. I didn't advocate the idea, I said it wouldn't happen and even if it did, Lance would win anyway. The "super-team" concept is going to fail because while someone is willing to be the domestique of someone on thier team, there's no way a guy like Iban Mayo is going to do the work for Jan Ullrich. It was doomed from the start because there's no one rider everybody could agree on to support over Lance. And, as you point out, every attack takes something out of the challangers.
I've had a day to think about it and I think Lance is feigning weakness. It wouldn't be the first time he's played to the cameras (think 2001 Alpe d'Huez). He called out Rubiera in the press for setting too fast a pace, and for a guy who is always in control of himself, I don't think it's a slip of the tongue. I think Armstrong is trying to lure his rivals into attacks to thin the field. Look at Stage 8 again. The Posties reach the base of Huez and go on a supersonic pace right away. A lead group of nearly 40 riders becomes 5 awful quick. In about two minutes, Postal found out who had the legs to challenge Armstrong. Everyone else just got rolled. A couple of riders fought back to join up with the winner's group (like Mancebo and Basso), but they showed they couldn't withstand a direct assault. He let Mayo and Vino go late, but Armstrong had identified his biggest challengers as Beloki, Hamilton (?!), Mayo, and Vino. No one else could really keep up with his high gear.
So we go into Stage 9 and Lance, as per the norm, attacks the mountains again. Who can put forth the same effort on two straight days? Once again, the same riders he identified as a threat show up. So he has to take them seriously. And of the top nine I listed yesterday, only a two weren't in the lead group of 12 today (5th place Mancebo and 7th place Heras). While Mancebo is still within 1:37, he's not equal to Lance. He can drop him in the Pyranees. Hamilton is a big question with the broken collar bone, and now Beloki's crash takes him out of the race. That leaves only two top challengers: Mayo and Vinokourov. Armstrong is letting those two guys kill themselves right now, and come the Pyranees, hopefully, Armstrong will be strong and can make his knockout blow.
Just my theory on the Postal strategy.
Hey, Jason. I didn't advocate the idea, I said it wouldn't happen and even if it did, Lance would win anyway. The "super-team" concept is going to fail because while someone is willing to be the domestique of someone on thier team, there's no way a guy like Iban Mayo is going to do the work for Jan Ullrich. It was doomed from the start because there's no one rider everybody could agree on to support over Lance. And, as you point out, every attack takes something out of the challangers.
I've had a day to think about it and I think Lance is feigning weakness. It wouldn't be the first time he's played to the cameras (think 2001 Alpe d'Huez). He called out Rubiera in the press for setting too fast a pace, and for a guy who is always in control of himself, I don't think it's a slip of the tongue. I think Armstrong is trying to lure his rivals into attacks to thin the field. Look at Stage 8 again. The Posties reach the base of Huez and go on a supersonic pace right away. A lead group of nearly 40 riders becomes 5 awful quick. In about two minutes, Postal found out who had the legs to challenge Armstrong. Everyone else just got rolled. A couple of riders fought back to join up with the winner's group (like Mancebo and Basso), but they showed they couldn't withstand a direct assault. He let Mayo and Vino go late, but Armstrong had identified his biggest challengers as Beloki, Hamilton (?!), Mayo, and Vino. No one else could really keep up with his high gear.
So we go into Stage 9 and Lance, as per the norm, attacks the mountains again. Who can put forth the same effort on two straight days? Once again, the same riders he identified as a threat show up. So he has to take them seriously. And of the top nine I listed yesterday, only a two weren't in the lead group of 12 today (5th place Mancebo and 7th place Heras). While Mancebo is still within 1:37, he's not equal to Lance. He can drop him in the Pyranees. Hamilton is a big question with the broken collar bone, and now Beloki's crash takes him out of the race. That leaves only two top challengers: Mayo and Vinokourov. Armstrong is letting those two guys kill themselves right now, and come the Pyranees, hopefully, Armstrong will be strong and can make his knockout blow.
Just my theory on the Postal strategy.
posted by Poseur at 11:36 AM
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