Stage 6—looking back & looking forward
Look out! Here’s the first chart of the 2003 TdF. It’s the top 10 in the green jersey competition after 6 stages.
1 PETACCHI Alessandro ITA FAS 144 pts
2 COOKE Baden AUS FDJ 118 pts
3 MC EWEN Robbie AUS LOT 110 pts
4 HUSHOVD Thor NOR C.A 100 pts
5 ZABEL Erik GER TEL 98 pts
6 O'GRADY Stuart AUS C.A 91 pts
7 NAZON Jean-Patrick FRA DEL 88 pts
8 PAOLINI Luca ITA QSD 87 pts
9 KIRSIPUU Jaan EST A2R 84 pts
10 FREIRE Oscar ESP RAB 83 pts
Petacchi is an animal, winning 4 stages already. Today he also bothered to steal two points on an intermediate sprint. Right now it looks like the mountains are the only things that can stop him.
McEwen, Zabel, and Kirsipuu all came up empty in the bunch sprint. The goose egg really, really hurts their chances for winning. Zabel & McEwen were headed for a great battle with each other—Zabel was consistently beating McEwen by a tiny bit to close the gap, but now they’re both in the same boat needing to claw their way back into contention. On the flip side, Hushovd and Cooke made huge gains to climb ahead.
Stretegies: Thus far we’ve seen three strategies
1) Wet your beak in everything: McEwen consistently finished high, but also scrambles for the intermediate sprint points. Nazon and Kirsipuu did it too, just not as well.
2) Just finish high: It’s as though Zabel doesn’t even know about the intermediate sprint points. He just rides to finish in the top 5 each day. Baden Cooke also used this approach.
3) Sawed-off shotgun approach: Petacchi’s “Just win the friggin’ stage” tactic.
At this point, strategy #2 is only a viable option for Petacchi to hold his lead; it’s not going to close a 30 or 40point gap. If there is a disaster, then that changes things. A disaster is very possible, but it’s no way to plan your strategy.
Stephen is right to say that Petacchi will probably have the green jersey for a while, but a lot will change in the mountains. Two years ago we saw Stuart O’Grady nickel & dime his way against Zabel by picking up modest points at the intermediate sprints on each mountain stage. Expect some of the chasers to be vigilant in the mountains. Anyone who nets +15-20 points against Petacchi will be within striking range—assuming Petacchi survives the mountains.
Onward & upward
But the green jersey now takes a back seat. The next three stages are in the Alps. In the first two the yellow jersey contenders are going to show up and make some noise. I imagine Simoni, Ullrich, and Beloki are itching to attack Lance. We’ll see what condition Ullrich is really in, and we’ll see who takes the polka dot jersey away from the imposter who now holds it. But remember, as we enter the mountains, it’s Armstrong’s time now. By Monday he may have a 4 minute lead.
Look out! Here’s the first chart of the 2003 TdF. It’s the top 10 in the green jersey competition after 6 stages.
1 PETACCHI Alessandro ITA FAS 144 pts
2 COOKE Baden AUS FDJ 118 pts
3 MC EWEN Robbie AUS LOT 110 pts
4 HUSHOVD Thor NOR C.A 100 pts
5 ZABEL Erik GER TEL 98 pts
6 O'GRADY Stuart AUS C.A 91 pts
7 NAZON Jean-Patrick FRA DEL 88 pts
8 PAOLINI Luca ITA QSD 87 pts
9 KIRSIPUU Jaan EST A2R 84 pts
10 FREIRE Oscar ESP RAB 83 pts
Petacchi is an animal, winning 4 stages already. Today he also bothered to steal two points on an intermediate sprint. Right now it looks like the mountains are the only things that can stop him.
McEwen, Zabel, and Kirsipuu all came up empty in the bunch sprint. The goose egg really, really hurts their chances for winning. Zabel & McEwen were headed for a great battle with each other—Zabel was consistently beating McEwen by a tiny bit to close the gap, but now they’re both in the same boat needing to claw their way back into contention. On the flip side, Hushovd and Cooke made huge gains to climb ahead.
Stretegies: Thus far we’ve seen three strategies
1) Wet your beak in everything: McEwen consistently finished high, but also scrambles for the intermediate sprint points. Nazon and Kirsipuu did it too, just not as well.
2) Just finish high: It’s as though Zabel doesn’t even know about the intermediate sprint points. He just rides to finish in the top 5 each day. Baden Cooke also used this approach.
3) Sawed-off shotgun approach: Petacchi’s “Just win the friggin’ stage” tactic.
At this point, strategy #2 is only a viable option for Petacchi to hold his lead; it’s not going to close a 30 or 40point gap. If there is a disaster, then that changes things. A disaster is very possible, but it’s no way to plan your strategy.
Stephen is right to say that Petacchi will probably have the green jersey for a while, but a lot will change in the mountains. Two years ago we saw Stuart O’Grady nickel & dime his way against Zabel by picking up modest points at the intermediate sprints on each mountain stage. Expect some of the chasers to be vigilant in the mountains. Anyone who nets +15-20 points against Petacchi will be within striking range—assuming Petacchi survives the mountains.
Onward & upward
But the green jersey now takes a back seat. The next three stages are in the Alps. In the first two the yellow jersey contenders are going to show up and make some noise. I imagine Simoni, Ullrich, and Beloki are itching to attack Lance. We’ll see what condition Ullrich is really in, and we’ll see who takes the polka dot jersey away from the imposter who now holds it. But remember, as we enter the mountains, it’s Armstrong’s time now. By Monday he may have a 4 minute lead.
posted by uberschuck at 2:44 PM
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