2007 Tour de France Preview

Unfortunately, the topic of doping can’t be avoided in the 2007 TdF Preview. I’d prefer to focus on the positive, so I’ll save comments on doping for later. Instead, I’ll begin by saying you can still enjoy the Tour despite the doping nonsense. Doping scandals may have decimated the heroes, but this is still the most exhausting sporting event in the world. There will still be 180 men racing over 2100 miles. They still must overcome mountains, heat, wind, and the race of truth. In the end, someone is going to be champion, and it will not be boring.

Not one former winner is in the field, unless you count Oscar Pereiro. In fact, Pereiro, Alex Vinokourov, and Andreas Kloden are the only participants who have finished on the podium. Last year was considered a wide open Tour without a dominant figure, and this one begins the same way.

The Scene:

There is no team time trial, but there are two very long individual time trials totaling 109 km, and there are 6 mountain stages. The first mountain stage is stage 7, on July 14, pretty much destroying the hopes of a French victory on Bastille Day. The following day will be torture in the Alps with 3 category one climbs over the last 90 km. That’s followed by a wacky stage 9 that begins with an HC mountain in the first 15 km, leading to the monstrous col du Telegraphie and col du Galibier before a 39 km descent to the finish. Stages 14-16 are in the Pyranees, and Stage 16 includes two HC and two Cat. 1 climbs.

Just to make things even cooler, the first two days are in England. It’s ironic that David Millar returns from a 2 year ban the same time that the Tour returns to the U.K.

The teams:

There are 21, which is about 3 or 4 too many in my opinion. I’m not going to preview all of them, just the notables.

Cassie d’Espargne (Banesto):

Oscar Pereiro will wear #11, not #1, since the TdF organizers can’t bring themselves to call him the 2006 champ. Anyway, he’s a long shot to win, and might be only the third best on his team, which includes Alejandro Valverde and Vlad Karpets. They are all contenders for the top 10, which means they might win the team competition.

Telekom:
Times have changed. Rather than having favorites for two jerseys and the team competition, they send Michael Rogers, who is top 10 material, and no one else.

CSC:
Another team with less firepower than usual. Carlos Sastre is good, and David Zabriskie is a contender in the time trials. Plus, they have Jens Voigt, who is always fun to watch.

Omega-Lotto:
Could they go 2 years without changing names? They still have Robbie McEwen and Cadel Evans, which means they are favorites to win the green jersey and have a decent shot at the yellow.

Rabobank:
As usual, they send a team that can do some damage. Michael Rasmussen and Denis Menchov are contenders for the top 10, plus they have a couple other guys who have won stages in the past. Michael Boogerd is retiring this year, so this will be his last Tour.

AG2r:
No kidding, but Christophe Moreau is a legit contender. In 2005 & 2006 he raced well. He also won the Dauphine Libere last month. Really, this is France’s best chance to win the Tour in years.

Credit Agricole:
Thor Hushovd is really their only threat to win a jersey.

Discovery:
Last year was disappointing, so they signed Ivan Basso. Then he ran into a problem with the doping police. That means the team is hoping Levi Leipheimer and Yaroslav Popovych can compete for yellow--outside chance for either one. Notably, George Hincapie is trying to finish his 10^th consecutive Tour.

Quick Step:
They ride for Tom Boonen to win green. The rest of the line-up is filler.

Milram:
Alessandro Petacchi is out because of a doping investigation. So, they can pin their hopes on 36-year old Erik Zabel.

Astana:
The team that couldn’t compete last year because they lost 5 riders to the doping scandal returns with Alexandre Vinokourov, Andreas Kloden, Paolo Savoldelli, and Andrey Kashechkin on the roster. Vino and Kloden have been on the TdF podium. Savodelli is a two time Giro champ, and Kashechkin was third in the Dauphine. This team is loaded.

Predictions:
Yellow Jersey

Alex Vinokourov is the best rider in the race if he's healthy. After being abused by Telekom for years and screwed out of participating last year because some of his teammates were (falsely!) accused of doping, I suppose he may be more motivated.
1) Alex Vinokourov
2) Cadel Evans
3) Chris Moreau

Green jersey

Each year I look for a reason to pick against Robbie McEwen. That’s dumb.
1) McEwen
2) Tom Boonen
3) Thor Hushovd

And just for fun, I predict Iban Mayo will abandon the Tour on Stage 9.

And finally, DOPING
The worst thing about cycling is that it is being destroyed by doping and zealous doping controls. It’s so bad that I don’t know who won the 2006 Tour. Every competitor is now a suspect, not an athlete.

I equate doping with cheating. I want the cheats removed from the race, and I want them punished. I think all riders are full of chemicals, but some are banned and some aren't. Plus, I'm sure lots of them play dumb by taking treatment from trainers who conveniently don't disclose certain information (nod, wink). Defining doping is a huge problem. For example, think about the Vinokourov/Astana episode from last year, or notice I said Petacchi is out of this Tour for a doping investigation. He is accused of doping after a non-negative drug test in the Giro. He tested positive for a steroid—one that is common in asthma medication. I’m not convinced that he cheated, but that doesn’t matter, now, does it.

The doping police ought to think about a concept we have in America—innocent until proven guilty. Currently, it seems the opposite is the norm in cycling. Another issue is with the testing. Not all tests are equally reliable. A test for a drug that is not naturally found in a human body is one thing, but tests for normal human chemicals, (EPO, testosterone, or a hematocrit) are another matter. Sure, science can tell us what is normal for human biochemistry, but it is not inconceivable that a world class endurance athlete would produce these things in elevated amounts. Just how reliably accurate are these chemicals as indicators of unnatural conditioning (i.e. cheating)? I don’t know. I’d like to think that the doping authorities would have their act together on this, but I simply don’t have confidence in them. The administrators punish people not just based upon evidence, but also upon accusations. Then they break their own rules by leaking information or employing labs that don’t follow protocol. So, no, I don’t have much faith in the riders, and I don’t have much faith in the authorities either. Unlike the doping police, the Tour organizers, media, or Greg LeMond I don’t condemn the riders based upon suspicion or accusation. But the sport is destroying itself with corruption at all levels. To top it off, check out the statement that the UCI is forcing all TdF participants to sign.

"As proof of my commitment, I accept, if it should happen that I violate the rules and am granted a standard sanction of a two-year suspension or more, in the Puerto affair or in any other anti-doping proceedings, to pay the UCI, in addition to the standard sanctions, an amount equal to my annual salary for 2007 as a contribution to the fight against doping."

Of course, the standard sanctions simply means the status quo for doping penalties, and the riders are already bound by this. The change here is that the UCI is forcing the riders to pay their yearly salaries to the UCI if they are caught. What a great strategy for fund raising! Really, this statement is an attempt to save face and make people think the UCI is doing positive things to fight doping. It’s cosmetic and, predictably, ineffectual. But it may allow the UCI to have extra cash for its Christmas party budget.