I'm picking Armstrong to win again
I know the oddsmakers say bet on Contador, and he's got a great chance to win. You can accuse me of being a homer and picking Armstrong. There must be some truth to that, but I've got good reasons to think that the old guy who was retired for 3 years is going to beat the much younger guy who is probably the best grand tour racer in cycling.
First, we're not dealing with your average returning-from-retirement athlete. We're talking about a guy who dominated this event for 7 straight years. Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, each of the last three years I have watched the TdF and said, the winner was great, but Lance would have beaten the snot out of him if he hadn't retired. In 2006 it was Landis and Pererio, neither ever was a threat to Lance. In 2008 it was Carlos Sastre, who is an awesome climber and put together the time trial of his life, but was also beaten like a drum by Armstrong for several years. Of course, in 2007 Contador won the whole thing. Even then, I didn't think his win was in the same league as Lance. He beat Evans and Leipheimer by less than a minute--Lance always had a bigger margin. And let's not forget that Contador inherited the yellow jersey because the race leader was yanked by his team for giving bogus information about his whereabouts to the dope police. Does anyone remember that guy's name? It was Michael Rasmussen. He beat Contador repeatedly in the mountains and had lead of a few minutes before Rabobank pulled the plug on him. Anyone thing Rasmussen was better than Armstrong? Nope. Lance mopped the floor with the recent Tour champs and Contador's closest competition. At least, Lance mopped the floor with them a few years ago. Yeah, there's no way he's the same quality rider at 38, but how much has he lost? In 2005 he was miles ahead of his competitors. He could have lost a lot of his ability and still be better than everyone else.
The third reason to be skeptical of Contador beating Lance is that Contador lacks something very important--he lacks a team that is dedicated to his beating Lance Armstrong. Astana is never going to start a stage with the strategy of putting time on Lance (obviously they same is true for Contador). Obviously, they'll be trying to put time on each other in the individual time trials. Contador isn't a bad time trial rider. In fact he's the newly crowned Spanish ITT champ--not that Spain is known for having good time trialists, though. He won the Spanish ITT race last week with a speed of about 44 kph. That's about the same speed Lance had in the ITT in the Tour of California last February--he's gotten better since then. In fact, when Lance was at his best in the Tour he'd average more like 50 kph in ITTs. Contador has no advantage here. I'm not sure if Lance has one here. That leaves the mountains to settle the race. I don't know who will be stronger. It's hard for me to fathom someone beating Armstrong multiple times in the mountains. Maybe Contador will prove me wrong. Until then, I'll stick with the guy who owns the Tour. In 3 weeks you can find out how wrong I am.
First, we're not dealing with your average returning-from-retirement athlete. We're talking about a guy who dominated this event for 7 straight years. Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, each of the last three years I have watched the TdF and said, the winner was great, but Lance would have beaten the snot out of him if he hadn't retired. In 2006 it was Landis and Pererio, neither ever was a threat to Lance. In 2008 it was Carlos Sastre, who is an awesome climber and put together the time trial of his life, but was also beaten like a drum by Armstrong for several years. Of course, in 2007 Contador won the whole thing. Even then, I didn't think his win was in the same league as Lance. He beat Evans and Leipheimer by less than a minute--Lance always had a bigger margin. And let's not forget that Contador inherited the yellow jersey because the race leader was yanked by his team for giving bogus information about his whereabouts to the dope police. Does anyone remember that guy's name? It was Michael Rasmussen. He beat Contador repeatedly in the mountains and had lead of a few minutes before Rabobank pulled the plug on him. Anyone thing Rasmussen was better than Armstrong? Nope. Lance mopped the floor with the recent Tour champs and Contador's closest competition. At least, Lance mopped the floor with them a few years ago. Yeah, there's no way he's the same quality rider at 38, but how much has he lost? In 2005 he was miles ahead of his competitors. He could have lost a lot of his ability and still be better than everyone else.
The third reason to be skeptical of Contador beating Lance is that Contador lacks something very important--he lacks a team that is dedicated to his beating Lance Armstrong. Astana is never going to start a stage with the strategy of putting time on Lance (obviously they same is true for Contador). Obviously, they'll be trying to put time on each other in the individual time trials. Contador isn't a bad time trial rider. In fact he's the newly crowned Spanish ITT champ--not that Spain is known for having good time trialists, though. He won the Spanish ITT race last week with a speed of about 44 kph. That's about the same speed Lance had in the ITT in the Tour of California last February--he's gotten better since then. In fact, when Lance was at his best in the Tour he'd average more like 50 kph in ITTs. Contador has no advantage here. I'm not sure if Lance has one here. That leaves the mountains to settle the race. I don't know who will be stronger. It's hard for me to fathom someone beating Armstrong multiple times in the mountains. Maybe Contador will prove me wrong. Until then, I'll stick with the guy who owns the Tour. In 3 weeks you can find out how wrong I am.
posted by uberschuck at 11:48 PM
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