Too many weddings, too little time. Thanks to Jason for filling in the gaps while I spent my weekend watching people tie the knot as I downed cheap booze. Tip to wedding guests: just say no to a gin and tonic made with generic gin.
Anyway, I did watch the Tour in the mornings but didn't get a chance to comment on it. Jason pretty much hit all of the topics I wanted to hit on, so I'll just add one or two things before going to the first two weeks in review.
First, let's give some love to Sylvain Chavanel. Along with Rous, he was supposed to be Brioches' best chance at a nice finish in the GC, and he has been having a pretty good Tour. However, with Voeckler in yellow, he completely adjusted his race strategy in order to help protect the maillot jaune. Voeckler spent the weekend getting constantly dropped by the top climbers, only to get nursed back to the pack by his teammates. That means that Chavanel, who has showed the ability to hang in these climbs, dropped off the back to help Voeckler get back in the race.
The amazing thing is that both of these riders know that Voeckler will not finish in yellow. In fact, it's quite possible that Chavanel will finish higher in the overall classification when all is said and done. However, that didn't stop Chavanel from putting his personal goals on the shelf to fall back and help out a guy who should be his domestique. Voeckler's amazing defense of the maillot jaune has been the story of week two, and I don't want to take anything away from him. He's shown more heart in the past week than any rider in the race. but he hasn't done this alone. Without Chavanel's selfless act, which probably cost him several minutes, Voeckler's not in the lead right now. Every day in yellow is special, and the actions of the Brioches team demonstrate that.
Now, let's pick on Jan Ullrich. Ullrich is a terrific cyclist, and had Lance not made his comeback from cancer, Ullrich would probably be a five-time Tour winner right now, and we'd be writing arias to him. But life's not fair, and now he's doomed to being known as the guy who kept losing to Armstrong. In the run-up to this year's Tour, Jason and I both looked favorably on Vinokourov's chances to take the helm of T-Mobile from Ullrich. Ullrich solved this problem by keeping Vino off of the Tour team, which seemed like a move that reeked of insecurity. And now, Ullrich is watching a different T-Mobile rider, Andreas Kloden, pass him in the climbs.
In the end, it's not Ullrich's fault Vino isn't riding the Tour. It's the team boss which left Vino home, so the team bears ultimate responsibility. Right now, T-Mobile's roster selection stands as the biggest error of the race. Can you imagine a triple threat of Kloden, Ullrich, and Vino right now? We're practically conceding this race to Lance, and the one man who might be able to beat him is hanging out at home watching this thing on the TV. I'm not saying Vino would beat Lance, but at this point, I think he has a better shot than Ullrich, who just looks past his prime. He's still an all time great, but he's an all-time great entering his decline. Kind of a theme for this year's Telekom team (see ZABEL, Erik).
Finally, I have to echo the praise for Ivan Basso. CSC is a terrific team, so he's got plenty of support which means that Basso really can win this thing. Armstrong's two days in the Pyrenees were simply epic. He punished the field in spectacular fashion. He didn't just blow apart the field, he demolished it. He made great riders look average. he made average riders look terrible. By the end of his two days of dominance, only 37 riders were within a half hour of Armstrong. That's ridiculous. Only 13 riders are within 10 minutes and four within 5 (remember, one of those is Thomas Voeckler). And that's just in two days. What is the field going to look like after the Alps?
While everyone else was cracking, Basso stuck to Lance's wheel and even took a stage win. He's taken Armstrong's best shot and is still standing, even firing back. What we are witnessing is a cyclist coming of age. He's not in this thing for quality finishes anymore, Basso's trying to make his mark in the most unthinkable way: by dethroning Lance Armstrong. Right now, he looks like the only one capable.
Let's take a look at the teams and what they are striving for in this final week.
AG2R
After a run at the points title, Nazon's out of the running. It was a nice first week, but week two sent them spiraling back to reality. And that means hoping that Stephane Goubert can hang on to his top 20 placement in the GC. That's about all they have left to shoot for, which is not a bad prize for a mediocre French club.
Alessio
Pietro Caucchioli is somehow in the top ten, only eight minutes out. I'm not sure if he can keep up this pace, but a top ten finish would be an amazing feat for a team that didn't seem to have a reason to be here once Cipo took his bike and went home.
Brioches La Boulangere
Holy crap. Voeckler is still in yellow, and the team is in fifth overall. Should Voeckler lose the yellow as everyone expects, he still has an eight minute cushion for the white jersey, and his teammates, Jerome Pineau and Sylvain Chavanel, are still in the thick of the race. It's a slam dunk to say this is Brioches best Tour ever, but it can get even better should they actually win a major classification.
Cofidis
O'Grady is still on the fringe of the points race. He's in fourth at 198 points, a good 27 points down. He's in big trouble, but he's not out of it, particularly with the way he always tried to pick up every point he can. He probably needs a major misfortune to befall McEwen in order to win. Moncoutie is their best placed GC rider, sitting in 30th place.
Credit Agricole
Christophe Moreau is having a pretty god Tour without anyone noticing. He's in 16th overall, about 12 minutes down. He's 50 points behind in the race for polka dots, but that's good for second place and there are plenty of climbs to come. An aggressive ride through the Alps could vault him past Virenque. Husovd's still lurking in the Green Jersey competition. At 209 points, he trails by 16. Hushovd can pick up 16 points on McEwen in the final day. He still should punch his teammate in the face for costing him about 10 points.
CSC
Ivan Basso is probably the only man who can beat Lance. What's depressing is that this team is having such an amazing Tour, and they may go home empty handed in the awards. They aren't even winning the team title, down by 5 minutes to T-Mobile. They have not shot at green, white, or the dots. Basso's a longshot just because he's up against Lance, though he looks like he'll make the podium. And can Jakob Piil please win a stage?
Domina
I'm not jumping ship from Scarponi, my pre-race pick for the white jersey, just yet. He's 22nd overall, within 14 minutes of Armstrong. That's good for fourth in the youth classification, but how well will Voeckler hang on once he loses the maillot jaune? He needs to pick up five and half minutes on Casar, no easy task, but it's not like he's dead in the water. Get in some breakaways and try your luck in the mountains.
Euskatel
This Tour has been an unmitigated disaster. Mayo's over 45 minutes out and he's still the best placed member of his team in the GC. My suggestion that he just ride for the climber's jersey is now moot. He can't win that either. they will just ride out the string and hope Mayo doesn't bolt to another team in the offseason.
Fassa
After Petacchi's predictable withdrawal from the race, Fassa' actually done pretty well. They've won some stages and Aitor Gonzalez is still within a half hour of yellow. But they are in contention for nothing. It could have been worse, but it's still not good.
FDJeux
Sandy Casar is 10th overall, and 2nd in the youth classification. This is gonna sound strange, but FDJ is actually in contention to win something. Right now, they have to be thinking when Voeckler cracks, he's gonna crack hard, opening the door for Casar to steal the white jersey. He's down by eight minutes, but he's got about five and half on everyone else. It's not the best of positions, but it's still pretty good.
Gerolsteiner
Did you know Georg Totschnig was in sixth overall? He's 6:08 out, meaning he's two and half behind fifth place. Sandy Casar, sitting in 10th, is closer to Totschnig than Totschnig is to Mancebo in fifth. I guess a podium finish is possible, but it's not likely. Hondo's in fifth for the green, but he's practically out of it.
IBB (Banesto)
They are in contention for everything but the sprinter's title. Well, that's not entirely accurate. Mancebo's in contention for nearly everything, with an assist from Karpets in the youth division. Francisco Mancebo's having a terrific Tour so far. He's in fifth overall, keying the team's current standing of fifth place. And he's in third among climbers, just a point behind Moreau. He has a huge decision on the first day of the Alps: do I kill myself and go for the climbing points, forgoing any shot at the podium or play it safe and take a shot at the podium and lose out on the climbing title? I'd go for the podium, but either decision is good, so long as he makes one. He can't hedge.
Liberty
Heras is in 35th. Kiss this Tour good bye.
Lotto
Don't screw up. McEwen's got a comfortable lead for the sprinter's title, but it's not insurmountable. He's a better sprinter than Zabel and everyone knows it, so his real goal is to keep an eye on Hushovd. Actually, the less points available, the better, so they should consider sending riders out to attack the field in the hopes of a breakaway. Axel Merckx's is having a nice ride in the GC, maybe he can finish top 20, but it's not a priority for the team.
Phonak
Hamilton rides last year's Tour with a broken collarbone, but he drops out of this year's because his dog died? Are you kidding me? Despite this major setback, Phonak's having a pretty good Tour, and they have two riders, Pereiro Sio and Sevilla, with a shot at the top ten.
QuickStep
Richard Virenque has a huge lead in the climbing classification, and since he rides just to win dots, I see no reason why he can't hold on and win it. He'll keep winning the intermediate climbs uncontested, only to get blown away in the finish. Michael Rogers is finally living up to his promise. He's 18 minutes back, and his quest for white looks like a lost cause, but he's at least riding well. And he's in 26th overall, no chump finish.
Rabobank
They aren't tearing up the field, but they are having a solid Tour. Leipheimer's in 14th overall, 10:47 out, so he's thinking a top ten finish. Rasmussen's been aggressive in the mountains so far, and he's in fifth among climbers, but I don't think he has any hopes of actually being the King of the Mountains. There's not a whole lot to ride for, really.
RAGT
Sylvain Calzati is one hour, nineteen minutes, and fifty-nine seconds behind the leader. That's good for 96th overall and 1st place on his team. This team just sucks.
Saeco
Last year, Gilberto Simoni was full of big talk and he got his ass kicked. This year, he's keeping a lower profile and he's in 11th overall, still within 10 minutes of the leader. That's a great change of fortunes for this team. Simoni's not going to win this thing, but he definitely had a better Tour than he did in 2003.
T-Mobile
Kloden's in 4th, Ullrich's in 8th, and Vino's at home. I just don't believe Kloden can beat Armstrong and Ullrich has already given up too much time to catch him. So they are left racing for Zabel, a team title, and maybe a shot at the podium. That's nothing to sneeze at, but by all rights, they should be thinking yellow. And though Zabel is in 2nd for the Green, he's been outsprinted pretty consistently. He owes his high place to a lack of crashes. When you set the bar so high, it's hard to call this level of performance a disappointment, but let's be honest... it is.
US Postal
The team is still great, and so is Lance. Nothing in the first two weeks makes me, or anyone else, think that Armstrong isn't going to win his sixth Tour de France. He's just head and shoulders ahead of the field (save Ivan Basso). And we haven't even had the time trial up Alpe d'Huez yet. He hasn't even conquered Ventoux. I expect the Posties will attack Ventoux with an unmatched fury, just to put this race completely out of reach. Wining isn't enough, they shoot for crushing the will of the peleton. Unless your name is Ivan Basso or Thomas Voeckler, mission accomplished. They don't just want to win this thing, they want to win it by ten minutes.
Anyway, I did watch the Tour in the mornings but didn't get a chance to comment on it. Jason pretty much hit all of the topics I wanted to hit on, so I'll just add one or two things before going to the first two weeks in review.
First, let's give some love to Sylvain Chavanel. Along with Rous, he was supposed to be Brioches' best chance at a nice finish in the GC, and he has been having a pretty good Tour. However, with Voeckler in yellow, he completely adjusted his race strategy in order to help protect the maillot jaune. Voeckler spent the weekend getting constantly dropped by the top climbers, only to get nursed back to the pack by his teammates. That means that Chavanel, who has showed the ability to hang in these climbs, dropped off the back to help Voeckler get back in the race.
The amazing thing is that both of these riders know that Voeckler will not finish in yellow. In fact, it's quite possible that Chavanel will finish higher in the overall classification when all is said and done. However, that didn't stop Chavanel from putting his personal goals on the shelf to fall back and help out a guy who should be his domestique. Voeckler's amazing defense of the maillot jaune has been the story of week two, and I don't want to take anything away from him. He's shown more heart in the past week than any rider in the race. but he hasn't done this alone. Without Chavanel's selfless act, which probably cost him several minutes, Voeckler's not in the lead right now. Every day in yellow is special, and the actions of the Brioches team demonstrate that.
Now, let's pick on Jan Ullrich. Ullrich is a terrific cyclist, and had Lance not made his comeback from cancer, Ullrich would probably be a five-time Tour winner right now, and we'd be writing arias to him. But life's not fair, and now he's doomed to being known as the guy who kept losing to Armstrong. In the run-up to this year's Tour, Jason and I both looked favorably on Vinokourov's chances to take the helm of T-Mobile from Ullrich. Ullrich solved this problem by keeping Vino off of the Tour team, which seemed like a move that reeked of insecurity. And now, Ullrich is watching a different T-Mobile rider, Andreas Kloden, pass him in the climbs.
In the end, it's not Ullrich's fault Vino isn't riding the Tour. It's the team boss which left Vino home, so the team bears ultimate responsibility. Right now, T-Mobile's roster selection stands as the biggest error of the race. Can you imagine a triple threat of Kloden, Ullrich, and Vino right now? We're practically conceding this race to Lance, and the one man who might be able to beat him is hanging out at home watching this thing on the TV. I'm not saying Vino would beat Lance, but at this point, I think he has a better shot than Ullrich, who just looks past his prime. He's still an all time great, but he's an all-time great entering his decline. Kind of a theme for this year's Telekom team (see ZABEL, Erik).
Finally, I have to echo the praise for Ivan Basso. CSC is a terrific team, so he's got plenty of support which means that Basso really can win this thing. Armstrong's two days in the Pyrenees were simply epic. He punished the field in spectacular fashion. He didn't just blow apart the field, he demolished it. He made great riders look average. he made average riders look terrible. By the end of his two days of dominance, only 37 riders were within a half hour of Armstrong. That's ridiculous. Only 13 riders are within 10 minutes and four within 5 (remember, one of those is Thomas Voeckler). And that's just in two days. What is the field going to look like after the Alps?
While everyone else was cracking, Basso stuck to Lance's wheel and even took a stage win. He's taken Armstrong's best shot and is still standing, even firing back. What we are witnessing is a cyclist coming of age. He's not in this thing for quality finishes anymore, Basso's trying to make his mark in the most unthinkable way: by dethroning Lance Armstrong. Right now, he looks like the only one capable.
Let's take a look at the teams and what they are striving for in this final week.
AG2R
After a run at the points title, Nazon's out of the running. It was a nice first week, but week two sent them spiraling back to reality. And that means hoping that Stephane Goubert can hang on to his top 20 placement in the GC. That's about all they have left to shoot for, which is not a bad prize for a mediocre French club.
Alessio
Pietro Caucchioli is somehow in the top ten, only eight minutes out. I'm not sure if he can keep up this pace, but a top ten finish would be an amazing feat for a team that didn't seem to have a reason to be here once Cipo took his bike and went home.
Brioches La Boulangere
Holy crap. Voeckler is still in yellow, and the team is in fifth overall. Should Voeckler lose the yellow as everyone expects, he still has an eight minute cushion for the white jersey, and his teammates, Jerome Pineau and Sylvain Chavanel, are still in the thick of the race. It's a slam dunk to say this is Brioches best Tour ever, but it can get even better should they actually win a major classification.
Cofidis
O'Grady is still on the fringe of the points race. He's in fourth at 198 points, a good 27 points down. He's in big trouble, but he's not out of it, particularly with the way he always tried to pick up every point he can. He probably needs a major misfortune to befall McEwen in order to win. Moncoutie is their best placed GC rider, sitting in 30th place.
Credit Agricole
Christophe Moreau is having a pretty god Tour without anyone noticing. He's in 16th overall, about 12 minutes down. He's 50 points behind in the race for polka dots, but that's good for second place and there are plenty of climbs to come. An aggressive ride through the Alps could vault him past Virenque. Husovd's still lurking in the Green Jersey competition. At 209 points, he trails by 16. Hushovd can pick up 16 points on McEwen in the final day. He still should punch his teammate in the face for costing him about 10 points.
CSC
Ivan Basso is probably the only man who can beat Lance. What's depressing is that this team is having such an amazing Tour, and they may go home empty handed in the awards. They aren't even winning the team title, down by 5 minutes to T-Mobile. They have not shot at green, white, or the dots. Basso's a longshot just because he's up against Lance, though he looks like he'll make the podium. And can Jakob Piil please win a stage?
Domina
I'm not jumping ship from Scarponi, my pre-race pick for the white jersey, just yet. He's 22nd overall, within 14 minutes of Armstrong. That's good for fourth in the youth classification, but how well will Voeckler hang on once he loses the maillot jaune? He needs to pick up five and half minutes on Casar, no easy task, but it's not like he's dead in the water. Get in some breakaways and try your luck in the mountains.
Euskatel
This Tour has been an unmitigated disaster. Mayo's over 45 minutes out and he's still the best placed member of his team in the GC. My suggestion that he just ride for the climber's jersey is now moot. He can't win that either. they will just ride out the string and hope Mayo doesn't bolt to another team in the offseason.
Fassa
After Petacchi's predictable withdrawal from the race, Fassa' actually done pretty well. They've won some stages and Aitor Gonzalez is still within a half hour of yellow. But they are in contention for nothing. It could have been worse, but it's still not good.
FDJeux
Sandy Casar is 10th overall, and 2nd in the youth classification. This is gonna sound strange, but FDJ is actually in contention to win something. Right now, they have to be thinking when Voeckler cracks, he's gonna crack hard, opening the door for Casar to steal the white jersey. He's down by eight minutes, but he's got about five and half on everyone else. It's not the best of positions, but it's still pretty good.
Gerolsteiner
Did you know Georg Totschnig was in sixth overall? He's 6:08 out, meaning he's two and half behind fifth place. Sandy Casar, sitting in 10th, is closer to Totschnig than Totschnig is to Mancebo in fifth. I guess a podium finish is possible, but it's not likely. Hondo's in fifth for the green, but he's practically out of it.
IBB (Banesto)
They are in contention for everything but the sprinter's title. Well, that's not entirely accurate. Mancebo's in contention for nearly everything, with an assist from Karpets in the youth division. Francisco Mancebo's having a terrific Tour so far. He's in fifth overall, keying the team's current standing of fifth place. And he's in third among climbers, just a point behind Moreau. He has a huge decision on the first day of the Alps: do I kill myself and go for the climbing points, forgoing any shot at the podium or play it safe and take a shot at the podium and lose out on the climbing title? I'd go for the podium, but either decision is good, so long as he makes one. He can't hedge.
Liberty
Heras is in 35th. Kiss this Tour good bye.
Lotto
Don't screw up. McEwen's got a comfortable lead for the sprinter's title, but it's not insurmountable. He's a better sprinter than Zabel and everyone knows it, so his real goal is to keep an eye on Hushovd. Actually, the less points available, the better, so they should consider sending riders out to attack the field in the hopes of a breakaway. Axel Merckx's is having a nice ride in the GC, maybe he can finish top 20, but it's not a priority for the team.
Phonak
Hamilton rides last year's Tour with a broken collarbone, but he drops out of this year's because his dog died? Are you kidding me? Despite this major setback, Phonak's having a pretty good Tour, and they have two riders, Pereiro Sio and Sevilla, with a shot at the top ten.
QuickStep
Richard Virenque has a huge lead in the climbing classification, and since he rides just to win dots, I see no reason why he can't hold on and win it. He'll keep winning the intermediate climbs uncontested, only to get blown away in the finish. Michael Rogers is finally living up to his promise. He's 18 minutes back, and his quest for white looks like a lost cause, but he's at least riding well. And he's in 26th overall, no chump finish.
Rabobank
They aren't tearing up the field, but they are having a solid Tour. Leipheimer's in 14th overall, 10:47 out, so he's thinking a top ten finish. Rasmussen's been aggressive in the mountains so far, and he's in fifth among climbers, but I don't think he has any hopes of actually being the King of the Mountains. There's not a whole lot to ride for, really.
RAGT
Sylvain Calzati is one hour, nineteen minutes, and fifty-nine seconds behind the leader. That's good for 96th overall and 1st place on his team. This team just sucks.
Saeco
Last year, Gilberto Simoni was full of big talk and he got his ass kicked. This year, he's keeping a lower profile and he's in 11th overall, still within 10 minutes of the leader. That's a great change of fortunes for this team. Simoni's not going to win this thing, but he definitely had a better Tour than he did in 2003.
T-Mobile
Kloden's in 4th, Ullrich's in 8th, and Vino's at home. I just don't believe Kloden can beat Armstrong and Ullrich has already given up too much time to catch him. So they are left racing for Zabel, a team title, and maybe a shot at the podium. That's nothing to sneeze at, but by all rights, they should be thinking yellow. And though Zabel is in 2nd for the Green, he's been outsprinted pretty consistently. He owes his high place to a lack of crashes. When you set the bar so high, it's hard to call this level of performance a disappointment, but let's be honest... it is.
US Postal
The team is still great, and so is Lance. Nothing in the first two weeks makes me, or anyone else, think that Armstrong isn't going to win his sixth Tour de France. He's just head and shoulders ahead of the field (save Ivan Basso). And we haven't even had the time trial up Alpe d'Huez yet. He hasn't even conquered Ventoux. I expect the Posties will attack Ventoux with an unmatched fury, just to put this race completely out of reach. Wining isn't enough, they shoot for crushing the will of the peleton. Unless your name is Ivan Basso or Thomas Voeckler, mission accomplished. They don't just want to win this thing, they want to win it by ten minutes.
posted by Poseur at 3:34 PM
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