The Grand Tours

2010 TdF All-Star Team

2010-07-25T20:05:00.006-05:00

OK, first the easy picks for the All-Star team. Conveniently, Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck were unequivocally better than anyone else in the race, so they take the two spots for GC riders. Likewise, there is a clear drop in the quality of the sprinters after Mark Cavendish and Alessandro Petacchi. Fabian Cancellara is a no-brainer of a pick for the time trial specialist, although it's worth pointing out that Tony Martin is an honorable mention (Martin was 17 seconds behind Cancellara in the stage 19 ITT, and the next best racer was about 90 seconds behind him). The two spots for climbers go to Denis Menchov and Samuel Sanchez. There is a reason why these two were in a tight race for the last podium spot, and it's because they were consistently in the elite group of climbers. Really, no one rode past them except for Schleck and Contador--they climbed better than everyone else in the race. My first pick for a domestique is Astana's Daniel Navarro, who always looked like he was about to collapse, but was amazing setting the pace in the mountains. He repeatedly whittled the peloton down to a couple dozen or less and was almost always Contador's last teammate. I thought Contador's team would be a liability, but Navarro made sure it wasn't. My final pick is Chris Horner, the unsung hero of RadioShack. Simply put, I don't think RadioShack wins the team competition without him. The big three on his team all faded at least one day in the mountains, but he never did, and finished top 10 because of it.

Other awards:

Iron Man: Cadel Evans. I can't see him ever wearing yellow in Paris, but he dug deep to wear it well (and stay in the race another two weeks) despite having a broken arm.

Biggest surprise (for good reasons):
Alessandro Petacchi, age 35, rode over the mountains and ended up with a green jersey in Paris.

Biggest surprise (for bad reasons):
Bradley Wiggins. It seems like he wasn't in the race. At least Armstrong had a couple good stages and helped his team win. VandeVelde & Frank Schleck crashed out. Evans at least wore yellow for a day. Wiggo was a complete bust.

Mr. Free Agency: How about Robert Gesink. I don't know when his contract expires, but today he's 24. He finished 6th overall. Just maybe he's got a good future in this, but he's going to have to learn how to do a time trial.

Worst thing about this Tour: The difference had more to do with machine than the guys on the machines.

Best thing about this Tour: A two part answer--Contador is now in the pantheon of the greats as a 3-time champ, but with Schleck's improvement, the gap between the two has narrowed, so we should have some great contests between the two in the coming years.

39 Seconds

2010-07-25T00:24:00.002-05:00

With only the ceremonial ride to Paris remaining, Alberto Contador holds the yellow jersey by a 39 second margin over Andy Schleck.

On stage 15 Schleck lost 39 seconds to Contador after his chain slipped and he had to stop to repair it. Just what did Andy Schleck do to Fate to deserve such spite?

Although the chain issue made the difference in deciding the Tour, and although Contador is insulting everyone's intelligence in claiming he didn't know about it during the race, he doesn't have to apologize for attacking or for winning the race. Schleck had launched his own attack moments before--he threw the gauntlet and the race was on. Bad things happen.

Their showdown on the Tormalet in stage 17 was epic. Even though Schleck failed to drop Contador, his effort was amazing. He showed he's stronger than every man in the race, except one. His surprisingly competitive time trial was equally impressive, closing the race with that ironic 39 second margin.

But maybe you can argue Schleck was stronger than Contador. He did win two stages, and he did drop Contador on the climb in stage 8, whereas Contador never won a stage and only dropped Schleck once, but for a slimmer margin. But even if we accept that Schleck was the stronger cyclist, Contador showed that when it comes to being a champion, he had what Schleck lacked. Whether you agree or not, Contador developed a winning game plan, took advantage of the moment of truth, beat Schleck in the Race of Truth, and played defense when needed. And while Contador was defending 8 seconds on the Tormalet, Schleck was not seizing the race by the throat like a champion. I don't doubt his effort--it was massive--but while watching him on the Tormalet, I got the impression he didn't have the psyche of a champion. I say that because a champion doesn't need to look to his competitor to figure out how the race will unfold, and a champion does not ask his rival if he's going to pass in the closing meters before the finish. A champion makes his destiny by looking forward, not backward. A champion does not look for his rival to come to the front for a pull, he rides his rival off his wheel. That's not to say he shouldn't look back--there is a good reason to look back and assess the other guy's form. But Schleck seemed to be using it as a crutch as he kept turning back to Contador, as though he could not dictate the race himself. Lance looked back at Ullrich, but he knew he was about to throw the hammer down, and he did it with the flair of a guy who knew he could strike the winning blow.

He's only 25, and he improved dramatically from last year, but to defeat Contador, he'll need to make as big a psychological maturation as he has a physical maturation. And he's got to get nasty and have a chip on his shoulder for more than 24 hours. He went from angry about a slipped chain costing him the yellow jersey to forgiving Contador within 24 hours. That will not cut it--he's got to treat Contador with the same contempt Fate has treated him--and we'll all enjoy watching the battle.

Luxembourgerish for Doh!

2010-07-19T23:45:00.002-05:00

Andy Schleck's chain came of the track, and it cost him his shirt. That might be the most memorable thing about the 2010 Tour if Contador wins this thing by a slim margin. The debate whether or not Contador is a snake for leaving Schleck in the dust while he tried to re-set his chain could rage for a long time.

At least one thing I am certain about--Contador is a crummy liar if he expects us to believe he didn't see that Schleck had a problem with his bike. Considering that some guy in a bright yellow shirt was standing in the middle of the road and trying to pull a chain around a gear when Contador zoomed past him, this is one of the worst lies since "I did not inhale."

That said, if it was bad form of Contador to take advantage of Schleck's bike equipment problem moments after Schleck had dropped Contador like a bad habit, whining about it is bad form too. Besides, I'm not so sure Schleck would not have done the same. Cycling is a cutthroat competition. Them's the brakes. Champions overcome, and Schleck still has a chance. In fact, on day 1, if you had told him he'd be sitting 8 seconds off the yellow jersey after stage 15, he'd probably have been pleased. Champions also know how to control their rage, so if Schleck decides to go nuts on Stage 16, he might burn out and shoot himself in the foot. It's actually not a favorable stage to attack because the last climb is a few dozen km from the finish. He'd be better off letting Astana wear themselves out Tuesday and saving his attack for Thursday.
As for Contador, if he can drop Schleck in the mountains and beat him in the time trial, no one will argue he won dishonorably.

Meanwhile, RadioShack got three guys to the finish line before Banesto's top trio finished stage 15, so they took a 4 minute lead in the team competition. That's still a short lead, but it's the longest anyone has had yet.

The first day in the Pyrenees

2010-07-18T19:56:00.002-05:00

I was kind of wrong about window dressing being over, as Schleck just stayed on Contador's wheel and they finished with the same time. I was definitely wrong about the strength of Astana, who were just great setting the pace on the two big climbs in stage 14. Meanwhile, Saxo Bank was AWOL. The funny thing is, Astana got nothing for their efforts and Saxo Bank wasn't burned. If anything, it is a morale blow to Astana in that they executed their plan well and got nothing. If I understood Schleck's post-race interview, he planned on playing defense in stage 14, but he hinted that he'll attack on stage 15.

As those two guys were watching each other, they let Menchov and Sanchez ride ahead, so the guys in positions 3 & 4 in GC picked up a few seconds on the guys in 1st & 2nd. It wasn't enough to put either of them in real threatening position (Sammy Sanchez is 2 minutes behind Contador), but if this game repeats itself, Schleck and Contador could find that they've shot themselves in the feet in letting these two guys get too close.

The team race had more drama, and Banesto took the overall lead back from RadioShack by 8 seconds. For a while it looked like Banesto would take the race by the throat when Kiryienka was in the group ahead of the peloton and Armstrong got popped off the peloton while Kloden and Horner struggled to stay with the peloton on the penultimate climb. By the time the race ended, though, Leipheimer had passed all the Banesto guys. Kiryienka, Moreau, and Luis Sanchez finished together a few seconds behind Leipheimer, with Kloden and Horner recovering to finish just a few seconds behind them. It's amazing that the team race is so close that a few seconds here and there are making the lead change hands so frequently. The current 8 second margin is virtually nothing, although RadioShack's advantage in the time trial is such that I think Banesto would need 3-4 minutes margin heading in to the time trial.

Window dressing is over

2010-07-17T20:47:00.002-05:00

After stage 8 I said the score was Schleck 1, Contador 0. On stage 12 Contador evened the score by picking up a modest 10 seconds on a short but steep finish. In neither case was the damage severe, but each guy can damage the other, so we could be in for a very exciting 4 days in the Pyrenees. Well, unless someone wins by 4 minutes on Sunday
Meanwhile, less than 3 minutes separate 9 cyclists fighting for third place, so that race could be even more exciting. (I suppose Schleck or Contador could pop and fall off the map, but that's unlikely. I suppose one of those guys positioned 3 through 11 could have a stunning day and drop both Contador and Schleck, but that's even more unlikely.

With four days in the mountains to settle a 31 second margin, the difference between Schleck and Contador could come down to their teams. Astana's guys did better than I thought in the Alps, but I wonder if they may run out of gas this week. On the other hand, Saxo Bank has the best team in the race, and we already know they can whittle down the field and send a guy ahead on the breakaway to come back to Schleck when everything hits the fan on the final climb. We've seen their tactics, and they work well. Not having Frank Schleck hurts, but I don't see that being Andy's downfall if he can't hold off Contador. Ultimately, he's going to have to drop Contador himself and defend his lead against Contador when he decided to sprint uphill. Schleck's advantage is that his team can overpower Astana and minimize the window of opportunity for Contador to strike.

While there is a two man race for yellow, there is a two team race for the team competition. RadioShack and Banesto are separated by a measly 21 seconds. The unsung hero here is Chris Horner, who has been finishing solidly third behind Leipheimer and Kloden while Armstrong feels old a few minutes back. RadioShack has the advantage here because they will blow Banesto away on the time trial, but in the mountains they have a pretty good formula. Leipheimer will take care of his own time just by fighting for a podium spot. Two of the three of Kloden, Armstrong, and Horner have to finish ahead of or with Banesto's top three. They can even alternate who hustles to be the third finisher and who saves energy for the next day. Paulinho and Popovych can follow any Banesto guys who get into a breakaway.

As for the green jersey, THOR! must pick up sprint points on mountain stages, because he simply cannot hang with Petacchi and Cavendish in the bunch sprint. It's one thing to finish right behind them; it's quite another to finish 5+ places behind and lose 10+ points. Unless THOR! picks up more points in the mountains, he will not overcome Petacchi's two point lead, and Cavendish might catch him despite being 23 points behind THOR!

Three stages, three jerseys* change hands

2010-07-15T20:44:00.003-05:00

Sometimes it pays to be lazy. On Tuesday I thought about writing an I-told-you-so piece on the demise of Cadel Evans. That was before I found out he was racing with a broken elbow. So, while I still think he's not a strong enough climber to win the Tour, he's gone from goat to Iron Man with that revelation. While I'll criticize a guy for not living up to the hype, I'll also commend him for struggling against adversity. Years ago Petacchi abandoned while wearing the green jersey because they were approaching the mountains, which is just sissified; what Evans did is the opposite. Three cheers for Cadel Evans.

Speaking of Petacchi in green, he's finally caught and passed THOR! and he even intends to make it all the way to Paris. That's the sort of thing I'll believe only after seeing it, given his track record and the thought of 4 mountain stages upcoming. It's only a 4 point gap, but THOR! has got to do better at the finish line. THOR! has won the green jersey without winning a stage before, and he does it by consistently finishing in the top 5 and picking up points in the mountains. Well, he's dropping further down the pack at the finishing line, and Petacchi managed to pick up a few points on the mountain stages too. So, THOR! has got to pick up his game, because assuming Petacchi will drop out may be wise, but it's no substitute for a real strategy.

And that leads me to the disqualification of Mark Renshaw following the sprint finish of stage 11. When I saw it live, I thought for sure Renshaw would get relegated to last place for headbutting another cyclist and drifting into someone else's line. That was real crummy and dangerous--a real no brainer to relegate his finish. I didn't expect he'd be thrown out of the Tour. Then again, relegating a lead out guy who fades away and picks up no points isn't much of a punishment to HTC Columbia or Marc Cavendish. Booting Renshaw out of the race is a big deal. I think it may be overkill, but then, what punishment between those two extremes would be appropriate? In any event, we're about to see how important Renshaw's lead out is to Cavendish's success.

*Well, Pineau lost the KoM and got it back, so there were 4 changes of jerseys, but, then again, only two.

The headline from Stage 8

2010-07-12T09:28:00.002-05:00

Since I don't work for Vs., I don't have to write about Lance Armstrong's tragic day. The real headline was that Andy Schleck made an attach that Contador could not answer. Last year there were a couple dozen attacks from the Schlecks, and Contador covered them all. This year he's 0 for 1.

It ended up being only a 10 second gain over Contador, et al., but the psychological impact is much greater. And while Cadel Evans picked up the yellow jersey, I don't expect him to keep it because he got dropped off the Contador group as they tried unsuccessfully to respond to Schleck (i.e. Evans is still the weakest climber of the contenders).

The gap between Schleck and Contador is by no means large--just 20 seconds, but now we've seen Schleck do something we've never seen before. For the rest of this race, even if Contador has a great day and takes a minute over Schleck, he's going to have to worry about Andy doing it again.

I made a point about Astana's domestiques working like mad on Stage 7. To my surprise they did even better on stage 8, but for what reason. They don't have a jersey to defend, but they are burning themselves up to break the peloton. If they do get the yellow jersey they may be spent and unable to defend. The only way I can figure this makes sense is if they know Contador is not on form and their acting the part of Tour boss in order to discourage attacks.

I think it's more likely that the team just has a bad game plan.

Game on in 2010

2010-07-10T19:57:00.005-05:00

OK, it's not that we're not paying attention, more like we're stranded between teenagery and retirement and just can't post every day. After 7 stages the race is at the foot of the Alps, so now's a good time to post thoughts on the first week.

Contador is the man to beat, and nothing in the first week would suggest otherwise. Evans is almost a minute ahead of him thanks to a time gap on the cobblestones of stage 3. That's a nice advantage to have going into the Alps, but there's no reason to think Contador won't take that and more the first time he attacks in the mountains (note to Evans: why not attack first?). The one fault I can point to Astana is that on Stage 7's easy mountains at the doorstep of the Alps, they sent their team to drive the peloton, and all two of their guys cracked before the top of the mountain. OK, they are behaving like favorites, but everyone knows the team is lacking, so they waste energy on a tune-up stage in which none of the big guns brought any bullets to the range. Not bright.

Meanwhile, RadioShack let its domestiques take it easy in the back of the peloton during the climbs. Phil & Paul were halfway worried that Lance was all alone--they just didn't see Leipheimer and Horner lurking in the back. Don't be silly, guys. RadioShack wouldn't leave Lance alone unless they knew he would get a flat tire on the cobblestones. Oops!

I did a little research, and Fabian Cancellara has worn the yellow jersey 21 days in his career, which is remarkable considering he's neither a sprinter nor a climber. He is, however, a time trial stud who can limit the damage on the flat stages, plus he has a team that knows how to defend the jersey. Even so, the loss of Frank Schleck is huge for Saxo Bank. Remember last year the Schleck brothers threw repeated attacks against Contador in an effort to find a weakness to exploit. Well, instead of having Frank to do that, it's Voigt, Cancellara, and Sorensen, who just are not the class of climber to fit the bill. Should Saxo Bank have to defend the lead, I think they'll have a fine shot, but taking the lead from a great climber will be too much for them. Really, they'll have to rely on Andy out-climbing Contador one on one.

Then again, that's what we figured on day one, not just for Schleck, but all the contenders.

Podium Girl with the master of the first week (photo from cyclingfans.com.)

And congrats to Sylvain Chavanel. For years I poked fun of him because he was billed as France's great hope to win the Tour, which is laughable, but then it wasn't his fault people said that about him. Now he's matured into a cyclist who knows what he can and can't do. And, apparently he can win two stages in the first week, win the yellow jersey, lose it, and get it back. Not bad.

Team evaluations

2009-07-27T22:00:00.001-05:00

Tete de la Course

Astana
Contador,1st, 85:48:35; 3 stage wins; won yellow jersey and team competition.
Wow! This team was awesome. They had 2 men on the podium and 3 in the top 6, and that's with Levi Leipheimer crashing out midway through the Tour and with a token roster spot given to a Kazak cyclist to satisfy the sponsor. They were as good as advertised and held up despite having the turmoil of having to figure out who would lead the team.

Columbia
Hincapie, 22nd, + 33' 27"; 6 stage wins; 8 days in green jersey; 12 days in white jersey.
Obviously, it was mostly the work of Cavendish, who won 6 stages himself. Although Tony Martin wore white for half the race, he suffered in the Alps and finished far behind, although he did finish second on Ventoux. The fact that George Hincapie was their best finisher shows the GC was really an afterthought for Columbia. But since Cavendish is a juggernaut, Columbia is a juggernaut.

Saxo Bank
Andy Schleck, 2nd, +4:11; 3 stage wins; white jersey winner; 6 days in yellow, 1 day in green, 2 days in team lead.

That’s a lot of hardware for a team that’s only the 3rd most impressive of the Tour. In addition to the Schleck brothers contending for the yellow jersey, Cancellara and Sorensen won stages. This team lost Carlos Sastre to free agency and Jens Voigt to a crash and was still awesome.

Poursuviants

Garmin-Slipstream
Wiggins, 4th, +6:01; no stage wins or jerseys.
Is it fair to put them in “Peloton” when they had two men in the top 8 and were runner up in the team competition? Is it fair to put them in “Poursuviants” when they didn’t win anything? Well, I’ll err on the side of being generous. They are very talented, fought hard, and came up short. Good pursuit…poursuviants.

Ag2r
Nocentini, 14th, +20:45; 8 days in yellow; 5 days in team lead.

Nocentini’s week in the race lead was an unexpected surprise. The team did a fine job of defending, and even after he lost it, he still rode respectably. Nick Roche had a decent finish too, despite his stupid tactics on stage 14 that nearly cost Nocentini the yellow jersey. Once a lousy laughingstock, Ag2r may be the best French team now.

Liquigas
Nibali, 7th, +7:35; won King of Mountains; 2 days in white jersey.
Franco Pellizotti changed his focus from a GC position to the KoM after losing a ton of time one day…turned out to be a good move. He was tough in the Alps and ran away with the polka dots, winning by 75 points. Nibali and Kreuziger were 2nd & 3rd in the race for the white jersey. This could be a great TdF team if they can keep it together.

Cervelo
Sastre, 17th, +16:21; won green jersey and 2 stages.

OK, as a defending champ Sastre imploded, but if you win green and two stages, that’s a darn good Tour. Yet Cervelo seemed anonymous in the Tour. Did you know this is THOR! Hushovd’s team before I mentioned the words “green jersey?”

Peloton

FDJ
Le Mevel, 10th, 14:25; 4 days in dots.

It’s hard to believe that in addition to LeMevel finishing 10th, Sandy Casar was 12th. Jussi Viekkanen wore led the KoM before the race hit any mountains, which is always a fun thing to put on a rider’s resume. If this team had a real GC contender, LeMevel and Casar would be a pretty good support for him.

Euskaltel
Astarloza, 11th, +14:44; 1 stage win, 4 days in dots.

This was their best Tour in a long time—first stage win in 6 years and first time wearing any leader’s jersey. Martinez had the rare ability to take the KoM jersey out of the Pyrenees and lose it before the Alps, but he still finished second.

Bogus Telekom (Bbox/Bouygues Telecom)
Rolland, 22nd, +37:44; 2 stage wins.

Thomas Voeckler and Perrick Fedrigo each took stage wins with well-timed attacks out of breakaway groups. Short on talent, but with plenty of hustle. We make fun of this team a lot, but they definitely belong.

Autobus

Banesto (Cassie D’ Epargne)
Sanchez, 26th, +41:27; 1 stage win.

It was Sanchez who got the stage win. He also gave a stab at a couple other mountain attacks that went nowhere. No one else on the team was noteworthy. Rojas was 4th in the green jersey race, yet I can’t remember him contesting any sprints. He only finished in the top 5 three times.

Agritubel
Feillu, 25th, +41:14; 1 stage win; 1 day in dots.
At least this team is improving from laughing stock to a bit player.

Cofidis
Minard, 38th, +57:37; 2 days in dots.

Two different guys wore the dots, one of which was in the Pyrenees. Nothing else to write home about. Blah.

Katusha
Karpets, 13th, +18:34; 1 stage win.

Ivanov is a good rider. His stage win was the result of a well-executed attack, and he was aggressive in other stages too. Al Botcherov also finished in the top 20, so it wasn’t too bad for their first Tour.

Rabobank
Menchov, 51st, +1:17:04; 1 stage win.

Juan Garate’s stage win salvages what was an otherwise terrible Tour, but a win at Ventoux will pull any team out of the cellar. Menchov rode like a guy whose legs were cooked at the Giro, and Freire rode like a guy who didn’t care to defend his 2008 green jersey.

Lotto
Van Den Brouck, 15th, +20:50.

Congratulations to Jurgen Van Den Brouck on a fine ride. Remember a long time ago, before the days of Robbie McEwen, when Lotto was just a terrible team wasting space at the Tour? Well, even with Cadel Evans on the team, they were still a terrible waste of space. If Sastre was a disappointment, how do you describe Evans, who finished 30th, over 45 minutes off the lead? The whole team didn’t even have anyone finish top ten in any jersey race. They make the Autobus on the strength of VanDen Bouck (a sentence no one could have predicted) and because the teams in the bottom category are even scarier.

Abandon

Milram
Knees, 21, +34:48.

Cioleck was third in the green jersey race, but he was barely noticeable. The sponsor should ask for a refund.

Quick Step, Lampre, Skil-Shimano.

I’m lumping them all together to save time and to save myself the trouble of coming up with individual ways of describing how they suck. They won nothing. They contested for nothing. They finished in the bottom 3 in the team competition.

Best riders: Chavanel, 20th, +34:09 (Quick Step); Loosli, 53rd, 1:51:53 (Lampre); Hupond, 90th, 2:22:58 (Skil-Shimano).

OK, I don’t even know who Loosi and Hupond are; I couldn’t even identify them as cyclists until I looked this up. I’m almost tempted to move QuickStep, and Milram up to Autobus just for having riders in 20th and 21st place. That implies they have some talent. Lampre and Skil-Shimano apparently don’t. Skil-Shimano, in particular, was a woeful eyesore. QS was +2:40:01 in the team competition. Lampre was a few seconds shy of 4 hours, but Skil-Shimano takes the cake with a 7 hour deficit behind Astana’s winning time. Amazing!

Recap & All-Star Team

2009-07-26T18:13:00.006-05:00

Recap:
Alberto Contador is the strongest cyclist in the world. That he broke everyone in the mountains was to be expected, but his time trial was stunningly good.

If Contador is going to dominate the next 5+ years, Andy Scheleck appears to be his most likely rival. Andy has won two consecutive white jerseys. There have been lots of guys to win white and not pan out, but Andy followed up his 11th overall last year with a 2nd overall this year.

Lance Armstrong didn't win the Tour, but he was pretty impressive nevertheless. There is a theory circulating that suggests that he suffered more from a lack of racing legs than age, ergo, next year he should be stronger with an extra year of training. Maybe. I'll need to see that to be convinced. We have 11 months to wait.

Astana did a much better job of handling the problem of too much talent (Contador, Armstrong, Kloden, Leipheimer) much better than Telekom (Ullrich, Kloden, Vinokourov) did several years ago. Is it a fair comparison? Astana has the best cyclist in the world. Telekom only had the second best.

Mark Cavendish is untouchable in the bunch sprint...Zabel, McEwen, and Cipollini never dominated the way he did.

2009 All Star Team

The obvious spots: Contador and Andy Schleck as GC riders. The fact that they were holding back on Ventoux and still led the contenders says it all. My sprinters are Cavendish--6 stage wins!!!!!--and THOR!, because he beat Cav in the green jersey race.

I'll take Fabian Cancellara as my time trialist. Contador did beat him in the final ITT, but if you combine times from both time trials, no one was faster than Cancellara. Even if he weren't an All-Star as a time trialist, I would have picked him as a domestique because of his pace-setting in the mountains.

Franco Pellizotti earned a spot as a climber. He won the KoM by a very large marging. Sometimes the KoM is a goofy competition, and I have kept the winner off the team for being a point hoarder who disappears on the hardest climbs, but not Franco. Even after he clinched the KoM he made a serious attack on the Ventoux, like a climbing All-Star is supposed to do.

I'll take Mark Renshaw as a lead out man for the sprints. The whole Columbia team did a great job of leading Cavendish, but Renshaw was the best of the group.

Frank Schleck earns a spot too. After Ventoux people think of him as the fellow who missed the podium because of a bad time trial and an inability to follow his brother's wheel on Ventoux. Don't forget that throughout the Alps he was constantly attacking to set up Andy Schleck. If Andy asserted himself as a team leader, Frank is a ridiculously talented and aggressive domestique for the climbs.

I've been wondering if I should include Lance Armstrong on the All-Star Team. If not Lance, then who? Ivanov had a nice stage win and a few other good breakaways. Ditto Perrick Fedrigo. But, seriously, it would be silly not to pick Armstrong. Don't compare him to Lance of 1999-2005; he's not that good. He's still awesome. Despite the drama on his team he ended up being the team player. He showed he's as smart as any rider in the peloton by being on the happy end of a peloton split at the finish twice. Any team needs a rider that strong and savvy.

Ventoux

2009-07-25T16:52:00.002-05:00

Although the race up Ventoux was fun to watch, I got the feeling that the Tour organizers outsmarted themselves by putting it on the penultimate day after a back-end-loaded final week of mountain stages. Those guys were worn out, and they were all playing defense, except for Frank Schleck, who was probably the most worn out of the top 7. Still, the race was tense even if it didn't produce huge time gaps (well, unless you are named Evans, Sastre, or Menchov).

With Garate winning the stage, Rabobank finally has something good to take from the Tour. Otherwise, they might have found themselves in the Abandon category of my team evaluation.

Tomorrow the green jersey is up for grabs. There are two intermediate sprints that Cavendish ought to try to take if he intends to close the gap on THOR!.

When it's all over I'll name a TdF All-Star team and evaluate the teams. In the meantime, check out Jens Voigt's Halloween costume.

ITT

2009-07-23T21:18:00.002-05:00

OK, I'm impressed. I'm more impressed by Contador's win in the time trial than I am by his winning the whole Tour. He beat Fabian Cancellara by 3 seconds. He beat Wiggins and Kloden by almost a minute. He beat Armstrong, the Schlecks, and the other contenders by 1:30+. I figured Contador to be a fair time trialist, not a great one, but today he served up a massive beat down. The margin is enough to push his overall lead beyond the magical 4 minute barrier I've been saying would be needed to feel safe going onto Mt. Ventoux.

The standings after stage 18.
1 Alberto Contador (Astana) at 73:15:39
2 Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank) at 04:11
3 Lance Armstrong (Astana) at 05:25
4 Bradley Wiggins (Garmin - Slipstream) at 05:36
5 Andréas Klöden (Astana) at 05:38
6 Frank Schleck (Saxo Bank) at 05:59
7 Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) at 07:15

The only way Contador doesn't win is if he gets sick, crashes, or fails a drug test. Andy Schleck has a nice advantage for a podium spot, but it's certainly not untouchable. The third podium spot is going to be a massive fight, with 4 guys separated by 34 seconds. The guys on Vs. haven't mentioned that because they are too busy predicting Lance will win every stage and then saying he's riding great when he doesn't win. But, this is really, really a tight race.

Even stage 20 on Friday could be a showdown, as there is a pretty nasty climb just before the finish. I think these guys will be so tired from the last few days that they won't attack. They'll save it for Ventoux on Saturday, where any one (or more) of them can blow up and lose his spot in the rankings.

Two days in the Alps

2009-07-22T20:43:00.002-05:00

A couple jerseys were practically decided in stages 16 & 17.

Franco Pellizotti kept attacking the climbs to pick up points. He didn't make it with the lead group to the final climb on either day, but he lasted longer than Egoi Martinez and even when Martinez was hanging around, Pellizotti was faster. It's not a mathematical certainty (Martinez would have to win every remaining climb and have Pellizotti get nothing), so, really, Pellizotti needs to pass his dope tests and get all the way to the finish line in Paris.

THOR! attacked solo in the mountains to pick up 12 intermediate sprint points in stage 17. Cavendish didn't attempt, so he finds himself down 30 points. He needs THOR! to draw goose eggs in order to make up that gap.

Because I've said all along that 4 minutes is the gap needed for the leader to feel safe heading onto Ventoux, I'll say Contador still has some work to do, but after putting time on Armstrong and Wiggins in stage 17, he's a lot closer. I do think the Schleck brothers have pushed him harder than he expected to go, but they just can't drop him. They aren't great time trialists, so they really need to rely on having a ridiculously good day on Ventoux.

Standing after Stage 17
# 1. Alberto Contador Astana 2910km in 72:27:09
# 2. Andy Schleck Team Saxo Bank, at 2:26
# 3. Frank Schleck Team Saxo Bank at 03:25
# 4. Lance Armstrong Astana at 03:55
# 5. Andréas Klöden Astana at 04:44
# 6. Bradley Wiggins Garmin - Slipstream at 04:53
# 7. Vincenzo Nibali Liquigas at 05:09

So, while it looks like Contador vs. the Schlecks for yellow, all the guys from 2-7 are fighting for a podium spot. The time trial will shuffle their positions and time slots to set up the final showdown on Ventoux. Being that Armstrong and Kloden will be protecting Contador's yellow jersey, their tactics for defending or attacking a podium position may be compromised.

Also, Scheleck and Nibali are 1 and 2 in the white jersey competition, so they have a consolation prize to think about too.

Astana built their lead in the team competition up to 16 minutes after stage 17. That gap is probably going to grow. It's a total beat down, and without Levi Leipheimer.

As for the crash of Jens Voigt...I hope that wasn't the last we see of him at the Tour. It won't be as enjoyable without him.

Rest day: An Interview With Bernard Hinault

2009-07-20T20:52:00.002-05:00

Press credentials--Bah, humbug. We scored a chat with former Tour de France runner-up Bernard Hinault.

TGT: Thanks for taking the time to visit, Bernard.

BH: Please, call me Mr. Hinault.

TGT: Yesterday was a long-awaited stage. Now that the race has taken form with Contador seizing control, what you think?

BH: Well, it's no surprise to me, of course. I've known all along that Alberto Contador is the strongest man in the race. His performance yesterday merely confirmed what I knew to be the truth.

TGT: It was an impressive display.

BH: Perhaps it seems impressive to those who don't understand cycling, but I assure you, my prediction was really an obvious one for anyone with a depth of knowledge of the sport. People who were predicting otherwise just don't understand.

TGT: I was talking about Contador.

BH: Oh, yes. He's quite a talented rider, a true champion. He's really showing his form by overcoming the sabotage of his own team.

TGT: You are referring to Lance Armstrong?

BH: I thought you'd never ask. There's a certain cosmic justice that this fraudulent, doping phony champion is being humiliated before the world. Just what sort of ego must this man have to think he could return at his age and ride well.

TGT: But he's in second place.

BH: There is no reward for finishing second.

TGT: Actually, it's a couple hundred thousand Euros.

BH: Whatever. The lowlife is only in it for the money.

TGT: Back to your point about sabotage...do you really think Armstrong and team Astana have been trying to sabotage Contador? What evidence do you have.

BH: It's obvious. The way Armstrong took advantage of the strong winds in stage 3 to attack his teammate and overtake him in the standings was just classless. You don't attack your own teammate! It's unprofessional.

TGT: But didn't people say the same about you and Greg LeMond?

BH: I've forgiven LeMond. He was young and unsophisticated. The poor fool just didn't know better.

TGT: No, no, I mean when you attacked LeMond in the 1986 Tour.

BH: I was protecting him.

TGT: Um.

BH: He still hasn't thanked me.

TGT: Back to the topic of this Tour. Do you think Contador will hold on to the yellow jersey all the way to Paris?

BH: Probably. He's definitely the best climber. It's possible Armstrong might loosen the screws holding his bike together the time trial, or maybe throw a water bottle in his spokes to crash him on the Ventoux. Of course, he'd have to be close enough to reach him, and Armstrong has shown he's too weak for that. Aside from that, I see Contador overcoming the long odds of his own team to win the Tour.

TGT: It's very favorable that he'll become a two time Tour winner.

BH: A true champion, one of the finest ever. Perhaps the best in 24 years.

TGT: Who won 24 years ago?

BH: That's it, this interview is over.

It's Contador's Tour to win

2009-07-19T19:48:00.002-05:00

That's the headline from stage 15. Contador attacked and no one could match him. Most of the contenders (Schleck, Schleck, Sastre, Evans, Wiggins!) finished ahead of Armstrong, who was 95 seconds back.

The new top 10:
1. Ablerto Contador, Astana
2. Lance Armstrong, Astana, 1.37
3. Bradley Wiggins, Garmin-Slipstream, at 1.46
4. Andreas Kloden, Astana, at 2.17
5. Andy Schleck, Saxo Bank, at 2.26
6. Rinaldo Nocentini, AG2R, at 2.30
7. Vincenzo Nibali, Liquigas, at 2.51
8. Tony Martin, Columbia-HTC, at 3.07
9. Christophe Le Mevel, Francais des Jeux, at 3.09
10. Frank Schleck, Saxo Bank, at 3.25

Armstrong said all that needs to be said about Astana's game plan for the next week. Contador is the strongest; he rides for Contador.

The race isn't over with 2 alpine stages, Ventoux, and a time trial, but no one has been able to stay with Contador, his time trial is pretty good, and his team is the best in the race. The other contenders need Contador to mess up in order to catch him.

Other stuff:

What does Astana do about the other goals besides winning the yellow jersey? Lance and Kloden are both podium contenders. They lead the team competition. Sweeping the podium and winning the team race would be a massive accomplishment.

Brad Wiggins is a huge surprise. Can he do it again and again, or will he pop?

Liquigas is having a realy good tour. Pellizotti is wearing dots. Niboli is a podium (and white jersey) contender. Kreuziger is also a white jersey contender.

Shouldn't Andy Schleck be ahead of Frank Schleck? Speaking of the SaxoBank team, the work Voigt and Cancellara did to set the pace on the slopes of the climb was just phenomenal. Those guys will sleep well tonight.

Nocentini may have lost the yellow jersey, but he did well to keep it over a week, and he rode well today. He's actually still in the top 10, but I expect he'll drop a lot of places now that he's lost his incentive.

Columbia steps in it

2009-07-18T16:49:00.002-05:00

George Hincapie was justifiably disgusted after stage 14. He began the day 5:25 behind the yellow jersey, got into a breakaway had a lead of 9 minutes at one point, only to finish 5:20 ahead of the peloton.

The only reward for finishing stage 14 five seconds out of the lead is a bitter taste in the mouth.

The post-race chatter leads to the fact that Garmin helped Ag2r push the peloton to close the gap, so the speculation is that the rivalry between the two American teams just got turned up a few notches of ugly.

There is no denying that Garmin did help close the gap, and I don't see any explanation. If they did it out if spite or stupidity, it makes no difference; the damage is done. But as Poseur says, "tough noogies." Cycling is a cut throat competition. As I like to say, if you have to rely on another team to do your work for you, maybe you didn't really earn it. But Garmin's not the only factor that spoiled Hincapie's day.

Astana. They've been helping Ag2r push the peloton all week. Astana isn't blameless here, as they did help narrow the gap under 7 minutes with 20 km to go. But they also rode an easy tempo much of the race to allow the gap to grow large in the first place. They played a bit part, but a bit part is significant when we're talking about 5 seconds.

Then there is the Columbia team itself. First, Hincapie. As the gap dwindled in the last 15 km, he tried to increase the pace, but had a hard time keeping the group organized. Really, the group might have been stronger if he had been able to split the passengers from the workers. He couldn't. Once he got to the 3 km he should have just gone all out. Ivanov was already off the front and the chase was disorganized. I bet if he had it to do all over again, Hincapie would have gone solo at that point rather than dallying with the group.

Columbia shot itself in the foot on the approach to the finish too. They certainly didn't have the long train of guys leading out Cavendish for a couple km like a normal sprint finish, but they did push the speed hard in the final 1.5 km. It was just a couple days ago that Columbia didn't give Cavendish the long lead out; Cav just followed THOR!'s wheel and passed him at the line. They should have done that again; they take some of the blame for spoiling Hincapie's bid for yellow.

Columbia compounded their problems with a bad sprint for the line. Cavendish was penalized for squeezing THOR! into the barrier. Although Cav beat THOR! to the line, he got zero points. Instead of closing the gap slightly, he got another goose egg and THOR! stretched the lead to 18 points. It was a bad day for Columbia.

On the other hand, Nick Roche nearly screwed things up for Ag2r. He was in the breakaway with Hincapie. He had every reason to be a passenger to protect his teammate in yellow. No one would blame him for sitting back. Instead, in the final 10 km, after Ivanov launched his stage-winning attack, and with the group disorganized, Roche attacked. TWICE. This moron ran the risk of speeding up the group and helping Hincapie overtake his own teammate. He didn't even get close to catching Ivanov and winning the stage. This was colossally stupid. If I were Ag2r's manager, I'd force Roche to ride at the front up the Alps tomorrow until he falls over and vomits.

By the way, Ivanov got his second ever Tour stage win and the first for team Katusha. Is that team sponsored by the Russian weapons manufacturer?

OK, I'm glad this week is over. Tomorrow they hit the Alps. Game on! Time to expose the poseurs.

A plethora of small items after stage 13

2009-07-17T20:45:00.003-05:00

The hopes that the cat 1 & 2 climbs in stage 13 would shake things up among the contenders fizzled out. There was no change today, except for Levi Leipheimer dropping out because of a broken wrist. That sucks. It's also the second time in his career he crashed out of the Tour. Vuelta for Levi in September?

Rinaldo Nocentini still has the yellow jersey. He's had it more days than Cancellara did, if you can believe it.

Despite the lack of yellow jersey drama today, two jerseys changed hands today. The mountains relegated Mark Cavendish to the autobus, but THOR! stayed in the peloton and was 6th to the line, good for 15 points to Cavendish's goose egg. THOR! now has a 5 pt. lead. There aren't a lot of sprint finished remaining; it might still be a close race on the last day.

The polka dot jersey moved from Egoi Martinez to Franco Pellizotti. Franco leads 98-95, and the third place guy is 60 points back. Pellizotti was a tad bit stronger than Martinez on all the little climbs in stage 12 and a lot stronger on stage 13. I was thinking that it would be ironic that a Euskaltel rider finally getting the KoM jersey would cough it up as soon as the race got to the Alps, but Egoi did one better and lost it before the Alps.

I don't care how much the TV commentators kiss his butt, Sylvain Chavanel is weak.

Finally, more fun from Bernard Hinault. ESPN reports from an interview he gave with L'Equipe. "I couldn't care less about Armstrong. If he's at the Tour or not, it changes nothing. We have nothing in common. There's also the language barrier, so we've never been able to speak man to man," Hinault said. "He would have impressed me if at the height of his career, he raced the Giro [d'Italia], the classics. He is the champion of the Tour, nothing more."

OK, this is really, really similar to my translation of his previous interview. I've never even met Hinault, and I'm no psychologist, but it's almost like he ghost-wrote that post for me. Hinault is definitely a petty and bitter man who is either a pathological liar or delusional. Over the years Armstrong learned French. He's not great at it, but I've seen him answer questions in French in post-race interviews. All those years when Lance was winning stages and yellow jerseys, Hinault was there shaking his hand and chatting with him at the presentations.

There's no denying that Lance didn't race the Giro or Vuelta while winning all those Tours, but it's not as though he's unique in that. Can you name anyone who contends for multiple Grand Tours in the same season. In the last 20 years only 3 men have won two Grand Tours in the same year and one of them (Marco Pantani) was caught doping shortly thereafter. But planning to skip one Grand Tour to focus on another isn't new. Eddy Mercks used to do it back in the 60s & 70s.

And as for Armstrong only being champion of the Tour, nothing more (like that's no significant accomplishment!), someone should tell Hinault that Armstrong also won The Tour of Switzerland, the Dauphine Libere, the World Championship, the Fleche Wallon, and the San Sebastian Classic.

Hinault is such a putz.

A substitute blog for another boring stage

2009-07-15T23:19:00.002-05:00

Stage 11 was boring too. Cavendish won again. THOR! was 5th, so he relinquishes the green jersey back to Cavendish.

Fortunately the good people at VeloNews put the transcript of an interview with Bernard Hinault on their website to help us overcome the lack of excitement. Here are some highlights. In a few cases I have taken the liberty of translating from Frenglish so that you can better understand what Hinault means. Segments from the VeloNews interview are in italics.

VN: We’re seeing some polemic between Armstrong and Contador, was that similar to you and LeMond in the 1980s?

BH: No, no. There was no polemic between Greg and me. In 1985, I was designated to win the Tour and in 1986, it was his turn. And it happened just like that. What we’re seeing now is that two want to win. It is quite the opposite.

The record shows that for stage 12, on July 15 1986, Hinault attacked in the Pyrenees and put over four minutes on LeMond. The very next day, in order to correct this mistake of overtaking his teammate who was designated to win the Tour, Hinault attacked again to put a couple more minutes on LeMond, who later bridged the gap and passed Hinault, though not by enough of a margin to take the overall lead from Hinault. In the Alps, LeMond finally got into yellow. But even then, Hinault attacked again, forcing LeMond to chase him down on the Alpe d'Huez.

That's what the record shows. Decide for yourself if Hinault is full of crap. Or maybe I'm silly and attacking your yellow-jersey-wearing teammate really is consistent with the idea of designating him to win.

VN: What do you make of the Armstrong return?

BH: Pfft … I couldn’t care less in the end. It’s not my problem.

Translation: Damn. This guy cast a shadow so long it shades my ego. That is a problem for me, so I'm going to pretend it's a problem for someone other than me.

VN: Don’t you think it’s impressive that he’s been able to return to the top level after being away from the sport for three years?

BH: But what is his motive for coming back? Is it to win? To fight cancer, or something else in the future? To one day be the governor of Texas? I think at this moment, the Tour serves him more than what he serves the Tour.

OK, here Hinault is losing it. You can tell when he mentions politics. To the French, the best thing to support a political career is to have an affair. Launching a political career by cycling is just silly in any country. And Armstrong is already a soap opera of romantic affairs. To win? Imagine that. Next thing you know, Armstrong will be trying.

VN: Do you think his return is good for cycling?

BH: I am not convinced that it will be good for cycling. One speaks a lot more about him and the Astana team and the politics between the two of them than about any other riders. It’s necessary to remember that there are other riders who exist. The media should look at everything.

Well, maybe the TV audience, crowds, and sales of goodies can indicate if Lance Armstrong is good for cycling or not. But let's translate from Frenglish again, particularly that bit about remembering other riders: Don't talk to me about Lance Armstrong. All he ever won is the yellow jersey. I won 5 of them myself, you know. I could have had 6, but I was a better teammate than Lance and I helped my younger teammates. He should take a lesson from that. I didn't need to win more Tours. I'm Bernard Freaking Hinault. I won all three Grand Tours, just like Contador. Only I won each one at least twice. Who else has ever done that? Nobody! Not even Teddy Merckx. That's right, I'm the man. These lazy, pampered phony champions of today should stop resting on their laurels and piles and piles of cash so they can appreciate what I did. Yeah, ME.

Stage 10 was boring

2009-07-14T21:03:00.002-05:00

Stage 10 was probably the one stage that sports fans who don't like cycling but tune in once in a while just to see if they can get into it happened to see. And based on that, they can consider their opinions of cycling as twice as exciting as watching paint dry justified.

Cavendish won the stage. THOR! was second. THOR! retains the green jersey by 6 points over Cavendish. Tomorrow, if THOR can finish second again, he can hold on to a one point lead.

Side shows on center stage

2009-07-12T17:53:00.011-05:00

With the big climbs in the middle of stages 8 & 9, there were no battles between the suspected contenders for the yellow jersey. Luis-Leon Sanchez of Banesto won stage 8 and Pierrick Fedrigo of Bogus Telekom won stage 9 by a nose.

It was the second career TdF stage win for each man, and also the second win of this Tour for Bogus Telekom, so they are having their most successful tour since Voeckler wore the yellow jersey five years ago.

In another surprise success story, Egoi Martinez took the lead in the King of the Mountains competition today as a reward for being in so many breakaways in the mountains. For the first time in many, many, many years Euskaltel has a result to brag about. This team has been a bump on a log in the peloton for years. I think that prior to Martinez getting to wear dots, the team's last success story was a stage win on Alpe d'Huez by Iban Mayo in 2003. Talk about a long drought. The goofy course (with the big climbs 50+ km from the finish line in the Pyrenees) is having the effect of delaying the yellow jersey race and warping the KoM race. No one has pulled a Richard Virenque and scooped up all the points on the early mountains to build a big lead, and the yellow jersey contenders haven't bothered to race up the mountains to gain time and pick up points as a byproduct. The result is that several different men are picking up moderate points, not big points. The polka dot jersey has been on new shoulders each of the last 4 stages. Martinez has a 19 point lead, and is likely to keep the jersey for several days now as the course turns flat, but there are still several people who can catch him in the Alps.

The other big development came in stage 8, when THOR! joined a breakaway in the mountains to pick up intermediate sprint points. He won both sprints, good for 12 points. Mark Cavendish got none, as the incline turns him into a junior cyclist. The coming week will probably determine the green jersey, as the third week is mostly mountain and time trial. THOR! has an 11 point lead, which isn't a big margin over a guy who destroys everyone on the flat sprint finish.

Stage 7: more drama for the Astana team bus

2009-07-10T19:45:00.002-05:00

Stage 7 was an enigma. The bottom line is that Alberto Contador attacked the peloton with about 1.5 km remaining, picking up 21 seconds on the other contenders and jumping into second place, 6 seconds off the yellow jersey. That sounds awfully familiar to what Armstrong did in stage 3, beating the contenders by 40 seconds to climb the leader board.

But this was a mountain top finish, not a flat stage. Picking up 40 seconds on the contenders is unexpectedly high in a flat stage. Picking up 20 seconds on them in a mountain stage is a small gap.

More substantial is the politics of team Astana. After the stage, the riders and even the manager were telling the press that the plan was not for Contador to attack, but that they weren't surprised that he did. The line dividing those comments from publicly ripping him in the press is very fine. Even before Contador attacked something on the road was very telling. When Cadel Evans attacked, Contador and Lance both responded, Contador on the left and Lance on the right. A few moments later, Kloden came up on the right side and offered his wheel to Lance. I could have been wrong, but my immediate reaction was "Kloden rides for Lance." Shortly thereafter Contador attacked and none of his teammates went with him.

From a team perspective, the way the stage finished is good in that there are now two men within 10 seconds of the yellow jersey. Hooray for Astana! The good news for the team ends there. Whatever effect the distraction of team cohesion (or lack thereof) was before, it has been magnified--big time. Assuming the talk is correct that Contador didn't have the green light to attack, Bruyneel is going to be ticked off by his insubordination. Armstrong and those teammates who favor him are going to be pissed off, and there may even be other teammates upset by his do-your-own-thing attitude. The public airing of dirty laundry is going to irk Contador, and this could snowball into something even worse.

Nevertheless, Contador's actions are defensible. You don't win the Tour by refusing to use your advantages. Contador has the best uphill acceleration in the race, and no one could match him. He doesn't have to apologize to anyone for being too fast. After the race Armstrong was playing the wounded teammate card, saying he refused to chase for the good of the team, but having seen Contador sprint away from him, I won't believe Lance can match him until I see it. Only Lance knows how much he had in the tank when Contador attacked. If Contador put doubt in his mind, then that's more valuable than the 21 seconds he picked up. Hopefully it will take all month for this to play out, because it's fun to watch.

By the way, Brice Feillu of Agritubel won the stage and Rinaldo Nocentini of Ag2r took the yellow jersey by 6 seconds over Contador. Yeah, and Italian is wearing yellow for the first time in about a decade.

Stage 6

2009-07-09T20:18:00.002-05:00

I assume Poseur hasn't posted his thoughts on Stage 6 because he hyperventilated while watching David Millar get robbed of a stage win in the last kilometer. We don't dislike Millar. On the topic of redemption, I appreciate the fact that he fessed up to his doping, did his suspension time, and returned on a team whose m.o. is robust dope testing. Still, part of his punishment is having people poke fun at him. And it is funny that he got passed in the final km. I'm not being malicious, and I know he can console himself with piles of money from his professional sports career.

The finish was a big deal beyond Millar Schadefreude because the pesky little hills in Barcelona denied Cavendish a victory on flat road. He finished 16th and only got 10 points. Thor Hushovd won the stage for 35 points, leaving him 1 point behind Cavendish (106 to 105). No one else has as much as 70, so the green jersey really is a two man race as we hit the first set of mountains. That's twice as competitive a race as it was yesterday.

Tomorrow is a big day. After Contador put his foot down in stage 1 it seemed like Lance really is a step or two behind his teammate. The next couple stages made us think otherwise. All along, though, we've known that the mountains will tell all, and tomorrow is the first look at the Pyrenees. Young Bert Contador may be trigger happy to let everyone know he's still the man, and I won't be surprised if he comes out with guns blazing tomorrow. One thing to remember though...Lance Armstrong made a career out of destroying his competition on the first day in the mountains.

Stage 6: THOR!

2009-07-09T20:14:00.000-05:00

THOR!!!!

There are certain riders we champion here. Jens Voigt, of course, but that’s only because he’s awesome. I made fun of Voeckler in my preview, but I honestly really like the guy. But if we have an unofficial mascot on this blog, it is THOR!

In fact, we refuse to refer to the god of thunder by his common name, THOR! Hushovd, and instead will always call him by the name I yell at the TV whenever he appears: THOR! Strangely enough, today’s win was not a ride of bad-assery, but of racing smarts. Cavendish has utterly dominated the green jersey competition, so much so that we’ve sort of given up hope on it being interesting. And then THOR! comes along and attacks on an uphill finish to rocket back into the race. It’s now a one-point differential. THOR! made it a race in one friggin day.

He did it the old fashioned way. By attacking Cav’s weakness: climbing. Now, no one is going to confuse THOR! with Contador, but he doesn’t suck at climbing as much as Cav does. THOR! saw a weakness, and he exploited it, even though it’s not his strength. Oh, on the same day that he crashed. In a crash that knocked Rogers out of the race, THOR! got back up, got back in the peloton, caught David Friggin’ Millar, and almost won the green jersey. That’s why THOR! is the friggin’ man.

On the flipside, we’ve wasted a lot of bandwidth ripping on David Millar. I like attacks, and I especially like solo breaks. So it’s gonna be hard for me to rip on Millar today, but I’ll try, because that’s how much I dislike him. Millar is now going to be unable to support his GC man (Vande Velde) tomorrow, in a selfish run for a singular stage win. Let’s face it, VV needs all the support he can get. If you’re gonna make a solo break that screws your team captain, you better win the damn stage. Whoops.

One more time: THOR!

Stage 5: Voeckler Steals One

2009-07-08T11:14:00.000-05:00

I honestly cannot believe that Thomas Voeckler had never won a stage before. He’s long been a Tour fan favorite, primarily for his inspired yet obviously doomed defense of the maillot jaune in 2004. But rides like that earn you a lifetime pass. Voeckler has traded in on that pass by always using July as a time to launch attack after attack, in his quest to get back in the spotlight.

Mission accomplished.

His break seemed doomed from the start. The six riders never built a huge lead, and the major teams worked to reel the group in almost from the start. It was a short leash, and when the peloton split, the leash got even shorter. There was no way Cavendish or Cancellara was going to let this break survive. Besides, Voeckler is not a great sprinter, and he was clearly outgunned by his fellow breakaway riders.

So he attacked in the final 5 km, broke the lead group, and crossed the line with the peloton pursuit ominously looming in the background. It was an inspired ride, and Voeckler gets to hog the spotlight for a day. He completely deserves his day in the sun, and his day highlights what makes the Tour so great. Even the little guys get a chance to shine.

Cavendish, by the way, won the bunch sprint and further extended what already looks to be his insurmountable lead in the green jersey standings. If he finishes in Paris, he will be in green. But today belongs to Voeckler. So much so, I refuse to mention a certain Kazakh team to detract from his spotlight.

Team Time Trial

2009-07-07T19:55:00.003-05:00

Quick notes on the TTT.

That was a wicked course. It had a lot of turns, a couple moderate inclines that pulled weak climbers off the pace, and a few roads that were dangerously narrow.

Astana was awesome on the course and most of the talk now is about how Lance Armstrong is only a fraction of a second off the lead. Yeah, that's important, but right now I'd like to applaud Fabian Cancellara. Overlook the natural tendency to be awed by Lance to realize just how good a cyclist Cancellara is. He's won stages before and worn the yellow jersey several days. He's a world champion at the time trial. While people are going nuts over Armstrong's rise to third place in stage 3 and into second after stage 4, think about what Cancellara did. He also made the jump to the lead group that held off the peloton in stage 3--just like Lance. In the TTT Saxo Bank had an off day, not a disasterous day, but not a great day like Astana. With 10 km remaining Armstrong was actually 1 second ahead of Cancellara's time. Cancellara was the guy who anchored his team to hold off the charge and keep the yellow jersey by the slim margin. Against the odds of a superior team in Astana, Cancellara picked up the slack of his own team to save his lead.

Garmin looked awesome today too. Liquigas was a nice surprise. Things keep getting worse for Menchov and Rabobank.

Stage 3: Well, well, well

2009-07-06T11:21:00.001-05:00

I was all set to write a post about how the first stages of the Tour always lack any real drama, and how it is hard to get up for the same cycle of breakaway, pursuit, catch, and then a sprint finish. Up until the last 25 km, that’s exactly how this stage was panning out. Maybe I was gonna say a few words about Cavendish and his pursuit of green, but it was not exactly a riveting stage.

Then the last 25 km happened. A pursuit group broke off the peloton and swallowed up the breakaway. No big deal, as that sort of thing happens all the time. Except that this pursuit group had three Astana riders in it: Lance, Popovych, and Zubeldia.

Even better for Lance was the presence of THOR! and almost the entire Columbia team in the break group. Cavendish’s team then had all of the incentive to pull their weight for the break. It was just like old times, seeing Hincapie leading a break group with Lance in it, even if they were on different teams. It was a logical alliance and the break group kept the 30 second gap despite the efforts of the peloton. Cavendish beat THOR! in a sprint to the line, and further solidified his early points lead.

But that’s not the story.

Armstrong, and two Astana riders, participated in a break and put time into their team captain. Armstrong, not Contador, is now the highest placed Astana rider in the GC. The split in Astana is becoming even more clear. This is not a united team by any stretch.

So what happens now? A divided team can absolutely crush even the most talented teams. Just ask Kloden, he used to ride for T-Mobile, so he has experience with this. On the flip side, its not like Contador and Armstrong don’t share the same goals. They can tenuously ride each other’s wheels while burning up the same domestiques until they both decide to pull out the long knives on Mount Ventoux. If neither rider shows weakness until then, it will probably come down to a free for all on the penultimate day.

Boys and girls, this just got interesting.

Stage One: Contador Lays Down the Law

2009-07-04T15:26:00.002-05:00

Well, the story going into the Tour was whether Contador could trust his own team and whether the team will fracture in support of Lance instead. But Contador will control Astana as long as he is viewed as their best chance to win.

Mission accomplished. Astana had an awesome day in which four of their riders finished in the top ten, all of which are real contenders. But the name on top is Contador. He asserted himself as team captain, so for one day at least, Team Astana is Team Contador. Well done.

The other story is that we have often stated that no one can win the Tour in the first week, but it can be lost. Denis Menchov came into today as one of the primary contenders for the yellow jersey. He's not dead yet or anything, but he lost one minute and a half today, the only contender to lose so much time. It was not a good day for the Russian. Noted poor time trialist Carlos Sastre only lost a little over a minute. It was a bad day for Menchov, making it an even better day for Astana.

Astana and Picks

2009-07-04T09:53:00.001-05:00

Armstrong and Contador. The current great versus one of the greatest of all time. Now, technically, Lance is going to ride for Contador as his lieutenant, but I don’t think anyone seriously believes that. Lance will ride for Contador the same way Hinault rode for LeMond.

One of Lance’s great strengths was his team. The Posties were just a well-organized machine in which every cog worked for the ultimate goal of the machine: yellow for Lance. Armstrong continually beat the star-studded, but horribly fractured Telekom team.

And now Armstrong has joined the equivalent of Telekom. Forget the two-headed beast at the top for a second. That can be a virtue. In addition, Kolden and Leipheimer have both finished on the podium. If the team fractures, what is to prevent them striving for their own ambitions? I wouldn’t worry too much about domestiques Popovych and Zubeldia, who are both incredibly taltented riders who both know they aren’t serious contenders. The open question is, who do they ride for?

Bruyneel has a well-deserved reputation has a master strategist and tactician. He won’t let a team fracture against itself. Then again, he made his bones as Lance’s right hand, so I am curious how easily he can shut down Lance. Or if he’ll even want to, if Lance makes a big break.

This is a team so good they could put three men on the podium. This is, quite frankly, the most absurdly talented team I have ever seen. They just have to ride as a unit. I do think it will come down to a showdown on the final day between Lance and Contador, which seems pretty cool. Because right now, it looks like the only way the other teams can compete is if this team does its best T-Mobile impression.

THE PICKS
1. Contador
2. Armstrong
3. Menchov
4. Evans
5. Kloden

Team Preveiws (Minus One)

2009-07-03T11:36:00.001-05:00

With Jason on vacation as the Tour starts, it’s up to me to write misinformed team previews. Here, I’ll preview every team except Astana, which let’s face it, deserves its own entry because it has the most fascinating team dynamic in the Tour. So here’s everyone else:

AG2R
We make fun of the French teams for having no ostensible purpose in the Tour. But can you believe that Ag2r actually had two riders in the top ten last year? And, being Ag2R, only one of them (Efimkin) will be starting the race this year? And that they still insist Dessel is the team leader? Awesome.

AGRIBUTEL
Feillu once wore the yellow jersey… er, Calzati has won a stage, and, um… you see… Christophe Moreau! Moreau is probably the most mockable of all French riders, but then again, he’s married to a podium girl, so I’m pretty sure he’s having the last laugh.

BBOX (BOGUS TELECOM)
They only exists so Thomas Voeckler can make some ill-adivsed early run at yellow jersey and then eventually finish 80th in the overall GC.

CAISSE D’EPARGNE
With Valverde skipping the Tour, the team leader duties fall to Oscar Pereiro who is kinda sorta a former Tour winner. It’s a strong, deep team that really won’t win anything. They specialize in having good, solid Tours in which they took home no hardware. Pereiro will finish top ten, but there’s little chance he will make the podium.

CERVELO
Carlos Sastre is the defending champ yet he’s no one’s pick to win this time. Sastre specializes in being the last guy standing when other rider’s choke away the race (READ: Cadel Evans). That’s a viable strategy again because there’s a 50-50 chance Astana implodes and Sastre could be the last guy standing. Again. Oh, yeah… THOR!

COFIDIS
Chavanel left the team and it was a major blow. Re-read that sentence and realize how much trouble this team is in.

TEAM COLUMBIA
Remember when Versus pumped up Hincapie as a contender? That was cute, wasn’t it? Kirchen also has an outside shot at the podium, but he’ll probably be a nice top ten guy. Rogers is being hyped as potential winner, but I’m not really buying. However, the team’s real goal is the green. Cavendish dominated the early stages of last year’s Tour before dropping out for the Olympics. He’s an overwhelming favorite and I’ll make the pick now: if Cavendish finishes, he’ll be wearing green. I can’t believe I’m picking a Brit, which goes against all of my instincts.

EUSKALTEL
Sanchez gave the orange boys their best finish in a long, long time and he’s back to contend for dots and maybe finish in the top ten again. A few years ago, this was a real interesting team, now they are the Basque answer to Ag2r.

FDJ
Of all the non-competitive French teams, and they are legion, I’ve always had a soft spot for FDJ. Sure, they won’t win anything, but they at least make the race as exciting as they can by striving for whatever low hanging fruit they can grab.

GARMIN
They wear argyle and are sponsored by Chipotle burritos. How can I not root for these guys? (I ignore the presence of David Millar) Vande Velde finished fourth last year in one of the most unbelievable results in recent memory. It won’t happen again, but the interest rider is Tyler Farrar, who has actually gone toe to toe with Cavendish. He’s a nice dark horse pick. Which is nice way of saying it’s highly unlikely he’ll win.

KATUSHA
McEwen and Steegsman. That’s a pretty impressive sprinters team, though McEwen is pretty far past his prime. This is actually a pretty good all around team, though they won’t contend in the GC.

LAMPRE
Imagine of Cunego actually took the Tour seriously. This is a powerful team that is simply just showing up to be nice.

LIQUIGAS
Basso is still not on the Tour lineup, so the goal is now for Bennati to win the green. He’s the biggest threat to Cavendish, but he’s only won one stage in two Tours, so I’m not going all in on him. But I hope it’s a war between the two (with Friere and THOR! trying to steal points on the fringe)

MILRAM
Ciolek is no Zabel. Keep that in mind.

QUICKSTEP
Tom Boonen is back! He won the appeal yesterday so he’s now on the start list, so everyone’s favorite coke addict is ready to compete for the green. How is that not a performance enhancing drug for a sprinter?

RABOBANK
Menchov is probably the top contender not riding for Astana. He needs to be able to able to simply hang on in the mountains and try to win this in a time trial. He lacks great support, which could doom his chances, but Rabobank is a team that always raises its game. And Freire is another green jersey threat.

TEAM SAXO
Who doesn’t like the Schleck brothers? Even more importantly, who doesn’t love Jens Voigt? Sastre’s off the team, which is really no way to treat the defending champ, but they are moving forward with the Schlecks as their best hope to win another yellow. I refuse to count out Andy, who now has experience and has the most insane rider on earth and his brother as domestiques.

SILENCE-LOTTO
Another weak team with a powerful team leader. Last year was Cadel Evans’ big chance, and he finished second. Again. Now, with the return of Lance and Contador, Evans is sort of an afterthought. This might suit him well. I’ve spent years picking against Evans, but I actually feel really good about his chances this year. Once again, dependant on Astana collapsing.

SKIL-SHIMANO
It’s their first Tour and the team is sponsored by chainsaws. That can’t bode well.

I'm picking Armstrong to win again

2009-06-30T23:48:00.001-05:00

I know the oddsmakers say bet on Contador, and he's got a great chance to win. You can accuse me of being a homer and picking Armstrong. There must be some truth to that, but I've got good reasons to think that the old guy who was retired for 3 years is going to beat the much younger guy who is probably the best grand tour racer in cycling.

First, we're not dealing with your average returning-from-retirement athlete. We're talking about a guy who dominated this event for 7 straight years. Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, each of the last three years I have watched the TdF and said, the winner was great, but Lance would have beaten the snot out of him if he hadn't retired. In 2006 it was Landis and Pererio, neither ever was a threat to Lance. In 2008 it was Carlos Sastre, who is an awesome climber and put together the time trial of his life, but was also beaten like a drum by Armstrong for several years. Of course, in 2007 Contador won the whole thing. Even then, I didn't think his win was in the same league as Lance. He beat Evans and Leipheimer by less than a minute--Lance always had a bigger margin. And let's not forget that Contador inherited the yellow jersey because the race leader was yanked by his team for giving bogus information about his whereabouts to the dope police. Does anyone remember that guy's name? It was Michael Rasmussen. He beat Contador repeatedly in the mountains and had lead of a few minutes before Rabobank pulled the plug on him. Anyone thing Rasmussen was better than Armstrong? Nope. Lance mopped the floor with the recent Tour champs and Contador's closest competition. At least, Lance mopped the floor with them a few years ago. Yeah, there's no way he's the same quality rider at 38, but how much has he lost? In 2005 he was miles ahead of his competitors. He could have lost a lot of his ability and still be better than everyone else.

The third reason to be skeptical of Contador beating Lance is that Contador lacks something very important--he lacks a team that is dedicated to his beating Lance Armstrong. Astana is never going to start a stage with the strategy of putting time on Lance (obviously they same is true for Contador). Obviously, they'll be trying to put time on each other in the individual time trials. Contador isn't a bad time trial rider. In fact he's the newly crowned Spanish ITT champ--not that Spain is known for having good time trialists, though. He won the Spanish ITT race last week with a speed of about 44 kph. That's about the same speed Lance had in the ITT in the Tour of California last February--he's gotten better since then. In fact, when Lance was at his best in the Tour he'd average more like 50 kph in ITTs. Contador has no advantage here. I'm not sure if Lance has one here. That leaves the mountains to settle the race. I don't know who will be stronger. It's hard for me to fathom someone beating Armstrong multiple times in the mountains. Maybe Contador will prove me wrong. Until then, I'll stick with the guy who owns the Tour. In 3 weeks you can find out how wrong I am.

The 2009 course

2009-06-29T23:06:00.003-05:00

I think Poseur always groans when I lead off Tour previews with a look at the course. Too bad, this stuff is important. This course is really, really interesting, and I like it a lot.

Highlights:
A team time trial.
Seven mountain stages; eight if you count stage 13.
No prologue, but two individual time trials.
The penultimate stage is Mt. Ventoux.

That last one is totally awesome and changes the dynamic of the race, as we’re really accustomed to the last showdown being a time trial, not a climb. Ventoux is no ordinary climb, and putting it at stage 20 is torture. We often say a 60-90 second lead is what the leader needs as a good cushion heading into the final time trial. For Mt. Ventoux a 4 minute lead is no guarantee.

That said, while it looks like a very mountain-heavy Tour, the mountains won’t dominate as much as it seems (except Ventoux at stage 20). Of the remaining mountain stages, only two actually (stages 7 & 15) end on a mountain top. The others have a lot of km between the last climb and the finish, so the effect of the climb may be muted. The days following stage 15 will be interesting. Stage 15 is the first day in the Alps, and has a mountain finish. The next day is a day off. Stage 16 has two colossal climbs followed by a technical 30 km descent with hairpin turns out the wazoo. Stage 17 is similar, only the descent isn’t as long or twisted. While stage 15 may separate the contenders, stages 16 & 17 aren’t likely to do so, despite 6 category big climbs. That’s right—in 5 days they go Alps, day off, Alps, Alps, time trial. A schedule like that makes the challenge more than the sum of its parts. Stages 18 & 17 will leave everyone FUBAR for the time trial on the next day. The stage 18 time trial course makes a circuit around a lake that is in Alp foothill country. It’s flat, except for a category 3 climb three-quarters of the way through, but the wind could be a huge factor on the course. Then there is Ventoux.

And before all that stuff happens, there are a couple key dates in week 1. Stage 7 ends with a big climb in the Pyrenees. Stage 1 could be big too. Instead of having a prologue, stage 1 is a 15 km time trial in Monaco, but the course is treacherous with a ton of turns. I’ll be surprised if all the cyclists make it to the finish—someone is going to break a collar bone on day one.

Truth in advertising

2009-06-29T00:51:00.002-05:00

This blog is called The Grand Tours, but we haven't posted on it since last July, which means we totally neglected two of the three Grand Tours. To maintain our blogging credentials, I'll say this...

Bert Contador won the Vuelta last September, putting him in elite company as a winner of each Grand Tour. He's the first to win all 3 since Bernard Hinault and only the 5th all time.

Denis Menchov won the Giro in May. He's won two of the three Grand Tours, and needs the Tour to complete the Triple Crown.

Both will be on the starting line Saturday.

There, we covered the Vuelta and Giro. Our Tour coverage will be more extensive.

Tardy Tour Tidbits

2008-07-30T00:33:00.000-05:00

After flying halfway across the country and driving back, and then finally getting my internet re-connected, I can throw in my 2 cents a couple days late.

1) I’m really glad the way this Tour ended. I wanted to see someone win by riding away from the competition in the mountains. Thank you, Carlos Sastre! There are lots of ways to win the Tour, and for Sastre it would mean making no mistakes for three weeks, controlling the bleeding in the time trial, and beating down the other guys in the mountains. He nailed it, and he’s the champ, deservedly.

2) About Poseur’s team evaluations…I agree for the most part. Ordinarily Columbia, with 5 stage wins, 15 days in 3 different jerseys, and a top 10 finisher, or even Gerolsteiner, with a podium finisher, the KoM champ, 2 stage wins, and 2 days in yellow would make it to the Tete de la Course, but CSC was just too freaking good. They dominated this Tour, and made it look like everything was scripted in their team bus. CSC has been great for years, and it is even more impressive that they changed their m.o. this year and thrived.

On the low end of the scale, I’d put FDJ in the Abandon category. They completely suck. I suppose Euskaltel is debatable between Autobus and Abandon. Yeah, a 7^th place finisher is nice. There were a couple days in the mountains in which they had decent finishes. I’m annoyed with this team because they are supposed to be great climbers, but they always lay an egg. They haven’t won a Tour stage since 2003, and that cyclist is now serving a doping suspension, so there is no reason to have high expectations, is there? On the other hand, they did better than Milram, Barloworld, and Lampre, didn’t they.

3. Tour de France All-Star Team

My GC men are Sastre and Evans, which is kind of obvious since they finished 1-2. I’ll take Schumacher as my time trialist, which is also obvious because he won both time trials. Naturally, the green jersey winner, Oscar Freire is on the team as a sprinter. I’ll take Mark Cavendish even though he abandoned, because it’s hard to deny a guy who wins 4 stages. I’m only picking one climber…Bernard Kohl. Really, who else earned an All-Star spot as a climber…Sastre, who’s already here.

Domestiques…I’d like to take Schumacher for riding in support of Kohl. He went on two breakaways in the Alps in the last week to prevent other teams from getting points. I thought it would burn him out, but he still had the goods for the final time trial. So, I’ll take Andy Schleck, Frank Schleck, and Jens Voigt. And why not…CSC was that good. Hector of Troy may be the breaker of horses, but Jens Voigt is the breaker of pelotons. On the stage to Hautacam it seemed like he set the pace for an hour, steadily dropping riders off the back…and he will not be getting a Christmas card from Alejandro Valverde, that’s for sure. Once he checked out, the Schleck brothers were an awesome pair of attackers who kept finding weakness, one day it was Menchov, another day it was VandeVelde. Plus, they made it look like Frank Schleck was their guy for 16 stages before Sastre took over.

Team Review

2008-07-28T22:39:00.001-05:00

As we do every year, the Team Review is broken into several groups: Tete la course, poursuivants, peloton, autobus, and abandon. Listed after each team is the top placed rider, how much prize money they won, and the jerseys won). Really, this Tour was dominated by one team and one team only, so ahead of the course, there is:

TETE LA COURSE
Team CSC (Sastre 1st place ---, 621,210 Euros, Won Yellow Jersey, Won White Jersey, Won Team Competition, 2 Stage wins, 7 days in Yellow, 7 in White)

What a haul. They won the Yellow with Sastre. Andy Schleck won the White. They won the Team competition. They earned nearly 400,000 more Euros than the second best prize money haul. They dominated the peloton and ended up dominating the podium in Paris. They crushed the rest of the field.

POURSUIVANTS
Team Columbia (Kirchen 8th +7:02, 113,450 Euros, 5 Stage wins, 4 days in Yellow, 6 in Green, 5 in White)
Give the old T-Mobile team credit. They actually looked like a team this year, even though they lacked the big stars of yesteryear. Kirchen was the story of the first week, and he was one of the more unique riders we’ve seen in years as he attempted to contest in both the GC and the points classification. Cavendish won stages by the boatload. They ended up fading a bit in the last week, but Columbia had about as good of a Tour as possible without having a GC contender.

Gerolsteiner (Kohl 3rd +1:20, 192,370 Euros, Won Climber’s Jersey, 2 Stage wins, 2 days in Yellow, 10 days in Dots)
Kohl was the revelation of this Tour. It’s an open question how much of his success in the polka dots was a result of Ricco and Saunier Duval exiting stage left, but he did look like the strongest climber throughout the Tour. What a novel concept, the best climber actually winning the climber’s jersey.

Rabobank (Menchov 4th +2:00, 154,250 Euros, Won Green Jersey, 1 Stage win, 13 days in Green)
Menchov’s fourth place felt rather non-threatening despite only being two minutes out. Oscar Freire won the Green, but I don’t think we’re walking away from this thinking he’s a dominant sprinter. He just won through consistency, which isn’t awe-inspiring, but it is impressive in its own right.

PELOTON
Silence-Lotto (Evans 2nd +0:58, 233,450 Euros, 5 days in Yellow)
I’m not sure how they racked up this much in prize money with just five days in Yellow. I’m tempted to bump them up a slot for their money haul, but this Tour just felt like a failure. Evans was given almost no support by his team, and in the end, he fell short in a course practically tailor made for his victory because everyone attacked him at will. Then again, 2nd place is 2nd place.

Banesto (Valverde 9th +7:26, 59,510 Euros, 2 Stage wins, 2 days in Yellow, 1 day in Green)
Valverde’s disappointing early crack pretty much destroyed their entire purpose. By week three, this was an aimless team derailed by one really bad day. It started so promising in the early days, but it all came apart. They rode well, but ultimately, this Tour was a disappointment.

Cofidis (Moinard 15th +23:31, 91,460 Euros, 2 Stage Wins, Most Aggressive Rider, 1 day in Dots)
The Most Aggressive Rider award for Chavanel is sort of the unofficial “let’s make sure the French win something” award. But he really did spend a good portion of this Tour attacking and his stage win was well-deserved. Cofidis, once again, was a solid peloton team that aspired to minor goals and achieved them.

Credit Agricole (Botcharov 18th +27:18, 55,450 Euros, 2 Stage wins, 1 day in Green)
THOR! Let me down. He never was able to really compete with Freire for the Green and went down meekly. The competition never developed. He finished 3rd overall in the points competition but was not a threat. But two stage wins are two stage wins, even if one was kind of cheeky.

Liquigas (Kreuziger 13th +12:49, 49,220 Euros, 4 days in White)
They had two of the top three in the young rider’s competition, and Kreuziger and Nibali pressured the leaders throughout. They both finished top 20 overall. OK, they didn’t manage to win a whole lot, but they made a good show of things, which is enough to put them in the group of those that had a solid Tour.

Garmin Chipotle (VandeVelde 5th, +3:12, 82,570 Euros)
The Burrito Boys didn’t snag any prizes, but VandeVelde’s fifth place is a tremendous accomplishment. They had a Tour of coming up just short, but they are the standard bearers of clean cycling and they showed they were a legit threat. For a first time team, this was a great Tour. But more will be expected in the future.

Ag2r (Valjavec 10th +9:12, 71,060 Euros, 1 Stage win)
Hey, they won a stage. And Valjavec was usually among the last riders dropped, normally hanging around the Yellow Jersey group on the major climbing stages. They even finished eighth in prize money. A solid, if unspectacular Tour.

AUTOBUS
Quick Step (Carrara 36th +1:09:25, 31,470 Euros, 1 Stage win)
Steegmans winning the final sprint in Paris gave them something to celebrate. But in the grand scheme, it elevated their Tour performance from dreadful to just below average. They were an almost total non-factor.

Agributel (Gonzalo 39th +1:20:06, 32,450 Euros, 1 day in Yellow, 1 day in White)
Feillu did wear the Yellow Jersey after Stage 3, so there’s that. He ended up abandoning. That’s Agributel’s Tour in miniature.

Bogus Telecom (Fedrigo 32nd +50:19, 24,900 Euros, 5 days in Dots)
Thank goodness for Thomas Voeckler. It’s always nice to see him in a jersey. However, holding onto the dots before hitting any mountains isn’t exactly a huge accomplishment.

Euskatel (Sanchez 7th +6:32, 53,130 Euros)
Probably the best team to never win anything. It seems to be a trend for the Basque team. Have a top ten rider, ride fairly well in the mountains, and at the end of the Tour, have nothing to show for the effort. Would it kill them to win one measly stage?

FDJ (Casar 14th +19:23, 45,780 Euros)
Casar turned in his traditional noble effort. He seems ill-suited to be a team captain, but he really could help a team as a lieutenant. Really, what’s the point of showing up every year to just try and finish top 20?

ABANDON
Milram (Zabel 43rd +1:26:54, 35,490 Euros)
Zabel finished second in the Green Jersey somehow. But when an aging sprinter who hasn’t won a stage in half a decade is your top placed rider in the GC… well, you’ve had a lousy Tour.

Barloworld (Augustyn 48th +1:36:21, 22,480 Euros)
They barely finished with a team. Soler broke his wrist on one of the first stages and things did not improve from there. The less said about their misery, the better.

Lampre (Szmyd 26th +44:43, 9.480 Euros)
Look at that. No stage wins. No jerseys. Less than 10,000 in prize money. Barloworld was the second least successful team, and barely made the finish line, and even they doubled Lampre’s haul. Ouch.

Stage 20: D-Day

2008-07-26T15:07:00.003-05:00

Thud.

This was the day Cadel Evans was supposed to dominate. He hung on the mountain, stayed within striking distance of the Yellow Jersey, all so he could crush the field in the final ITT. This was the plan against Contador last year, but he ultimately fell short.

Thud.

He fell short again. This wasn't that Evans rode a poor time trial. He didn't have an epic ride, but he was top ten. He put time into all of the top riders except VandeVelde, who has to think that if he doesn't crash on the descent on stage 16, he's not just standing on the podium, but standing on the podium in Yellow. But Evans did ride a good to very good time trial. But Sastre rode the time trial of his life.

Something happens to riders when they put on that jersey. They find something extra, and they will do almost anything to protect the honor. It's why everyone still likes Thomas Voeckler. Carlos Sastre, who has spent so much of his career coming up just short, didn't want to be the bridesmaid again. So he dug deep inside of himself and busted out a time trial that, frankly, no one thought he had in him. He lost less than 30 seconds to Evans. He overtook Schleck in the final few km. He won so comfortably, he was even able to pull up in the final sprint. Sastre won this through the inspiration of wearing Yellow.

I don't want to pile on Evans. He's going to finish in his second straight Tour de France and he's obviously a gifted rider. He didn't lose this race so much as Sastre won it. Sastre attacked on Alpe d'Huez and followed it up with the greatest time trial of his career. Sometimes you just have to shake your head and congratulate the other guy for his effort. But the contrast between the two is fairly apparent.

Sastre attacked. Evans defended and had others attack him. Sastre's team was absolutely brilliant, as members gave up individual goals in pursuit of the team goal (and still ended up with an impressive haul). Evans' team gave him no support, and he even publicly wished for McEwen not to be there to contest the sprints. Sastre embraced the Yellow Jersey. Evans wore it like a millstone and couldn't wait to get out of it. Sastre only worried about the moment. Evans seemed to try to win the whole Tour every day. The pressure beat him down.

Attacking cycling won the day. A great team with a perfectly executed plan won. These are good things for cycling. I didn't want to see someone win the Tour by not attacking and just waiting for the time trial. But I still feel bad for Evans. He rode a tough, gritty race against what seemed like the entire peloton. Everyone was against him it seemed, and he still almost managed to win. He's a terrific competitor and while I was rooting for Sastre, I do feel like Evans would have been a worthy champion. And I don't enjoy his disappointment.

The Calm

2008-07-25T17:40:00.001-05:00

Today was a little bit of a yawner of a stage. The Green Jersey is all but wrapped up, and the Yellow is going to be decided in tomorrow’s time trial, so really, there wasn’t a whole lot at stake today. The sprinters can’t really make an impact anymore and the GC guys are taking a break.

Which made today perfect for a breakaway. We make fun of the French quite a bit mainly because, well, they stink and it is kind of funny. Italians dominate the Giro, Spaniards kick ass in the Veulta, and the French get punked in the Tour. It’s just not fair. There’s only four French riders within an hour of the lead, and the highest placed Frenchman is in 14th (Sandy Casar).

So it’s nice when the hometown fans have something to cheer about. Today belongs to Sylvain Chavanel. I like Chavanel and he’s always thrown himself into the Tour, recklessly attacking to try and get a stage win. He’s been criticized by no less an authority than Bernard Hinault, but then again, Hinault doesn’t like anybody. So congrats to Chavanel. It’s your day.

Huez

2008-07-23T16:42:00.001-05:00

Well, Jason is off on a cross-country voyage, leaving me to run the blog, but I had this whole work thing prevented a prompt update.

After spending a good portion of this year’s tour being very, very wrong, I’m feeling like I was right yesterday. Cadel Evans had a hug ride on Stage 16, which put time into his fellow time trialists, but he stayed even with the climbers, who needed to put in time. It meant everybody had to attack today except Evans, which pretty much plays into his hands. Evans may not be an aggressive rider, and I may think he’s boring as hell, but he’s a tough man to shake. He just had to stay in contact today.

So, everyone reached Huez today and proceeded to attack the crap out of each other, and Cadel hung on for dear life. We’ll get to Sastre and Team CSC in just a second, but I have to lead with Cadel again. He didn’t let anyone else breakway, he even put a little bit of time into Menchov, and he did it entirely on his own. Evans finally attacked when Sastre’s break reached two minutes, just to minimize the damage. And no one helped him. Why should they? Sastre is a far superior climber, but Evans held the gap over the last few kilometers, dragging the yellow jersey group up the mountain. He was able to do that today because of his ride yesterday. If he wins the Yellow Jersey, it’ll be because of his great Stage 16 and minimizing the damage here on Huez. Just two absolutely brilliant days from Evans. And that hurts for me to say.

So let’s say great things about Sastre and CSC.

Sastre has a 1:34 lead on Evans. It’s an open question whether he can stay within 1:34 of Evans on the ITT, but it is within the realm of possibility. He’s got a shot if he rides the best ITT of his career. No pressure, Carlos. And don’t worry about those other guys still within striking distance as well. But if he wins the Yellow Jersey, it will be because of his work today. Or namely, CSC’s work.

They were awesome today. Just like they have been all Tour. CSC blew apart the peloton, and then guided their GC man to the top. Andy Schleck especially has been a workhorse, and he’ll probably be rewarded with a White Jersey. He looks like a future champion, and given his earlier low placement, it begs the question: is CSC just lucky he was so far back and was able to set such a pace because he wasn’t a GC threat or was his low placement an intentional tactic? Either CSC is great at making lemonade out of lemons or they are friggin’ geniuses.

And how about sending Sastre back to go get water? Was that the feint to make everyone think they were riding for Frank Schleck? Or were they actually riding for Schleck and Sastre’s attack just happened to be the one that worked. Who knows? But once again, either CSC is good at taking advantage of whatever comes their way or they are tactical geniuses. Probably somewhere in between. But CSC has made their own luck. They have dominated this race, and they deserve to win it.

But life isn’t fair. Sastre still needs to have the time trial of his life. Or else all of that work was just delaying the coronation of Cadel Evans.

Stage 16: Evans Looks Good

2008-07-22T18:43:00.003-05:00

I've made no secret I've been rooting against Cadel Evans. but it really felt like he won the Tour de France today. OK, this could look real stupid by the time the riders crest Alpe d'Huez tomorrow, but Evans put time in to two riders today: the two guys who had a shot at beating him in a time trial. This was a huge day. Evans doesn't need to blow Sastre or Kohl off the road, he just has to beat them in the ITT, which he is likely to do. The two guys he had to worry about were Menchov and Vande Velde. Both lost time today.

So all Cadel has to do is do what he's best at: hang with the group tomorrow, don't attack, manage the attacks that do happen, and then win this on a time trial. It really has all gone according to plan. I don't like the plan, but it has been effective. And the name of the game isn't style, it's winning. Or else we'd just give the Yellow Jersey to Jens Voigt.

When Evans was weak, his rivals couldn't put him away. When he crashed so badly, he gave the reporters his dented helmet, he didn't lose any significant time. When he struggled on Stage 15, he minimized his time losses. And now, after looking like the weakest guy in the top group, he is sitting as pretty as anyone can be in a race that is within a minute. Give the guy credit, he has earned this advantage. As much as it hurts me to say, I think he is riding a tough, gritty race.

One and a half casualties

2008-07-22T10:41:00.002-05:00

Since Stage 16 had a downhill finish and is a day before Alpe d'Huez, the contenders weren't going to got for the kill. But that is quite a different thing from applying pressure to see if anyone is weak. Of the top 6, Christian VandeVelde finally showed weakness and was dropped on the last climb. Apparently he crashed on the decent too, and by the end of the day, it cost him 2:36. He's not dead & buried, but now that he's over 3 minutes off the lead, his chances of winning the Tour are slim to none.

The half a casualty was Menchov. He lost half a minute on the decent and is now at +1:13. Yeah, he's still close enough to win the Tour tomorrow, but that 30 seconds just made it a lot harder in a close race. Considering that Sastre still couldn't put time on the other contenders, he's still in a bit of a hole, so it's advantage to Frank Schleck, Cadel Evans, and Bernie Kohl.

Kohl, by the way, has managed to hang on to the KoM lead, despite being tied down to the yellow jersey group. Gerolsteiner helped him a lot by sending Schumacher to take points on the first climb.

Aside from the yellow jersey race, the white jersey race is getting really cool now. Andy Schleck has re-taken the lead because he's been at the front setting the pace for CSC day after day. He can't help but take the lead since his job is to set a pace that drops guys off the back. The two Liquigas guys, Nibali and Kreutzinger, are within a minute of his lead, and Monfort is only 2:18 back, so that race will be up for grabs on Alpe d'Huez too.

I still think Lotto is playing bad tactics by wasting Popovych. Sending him in an all day breakaway in the mountains only helps if he comes back to Evans once the race heats up. Well, that never happened, and Popovych didn't even win the stage, so his effort gained nothing and he got tired again. Think about that tomorrow when CSC drops him half way up the Alp.

And I've got to mention the crash by the Barloworld guy. That team's Tour has been a disaster, but John Augustyn won them 5000 euros by being the first guy over the highest peak in the Tour. He promptly crashed on the decent, and it was pretty awesome to watch. He need a spectator to help him climb up the slope back to the road, but his bike kept sliding down the mountain. I don't know if he ever got it back. He had to stand there and wait for the team car. At least he got 5ooo euros for his trouble.

Alps + rain = fun stage to watch

2008-07-20T13:35:00.004-05:00

What’s better than having the top two guys separated by 1 second? How about the top 3 separated by 8 seconds? Even better, the top 6 are separated by only 49 seconds.

Just as in stage 10, CSC took control of the peloton and dismantled the other teams so that all the contenders were isolated from their teammates. And again, the contenders threw several attacks at each other, but most were quickly contained. For a while Carlos Sastre looked like he would be dropped, but he's the one that started the attack that actually split the group in the last 3 km. Bernie Kohl, Menchov, and Valverde followed, and gained a few seconds over Cadel Evans. Frank Schleck and VandeVelde didn't drop Evans until the last 500 m, leaving us with this leaderboard.

1. Frank Schleck
2. Kohl +0:07
3. Evans +0:08
4. Menchov +0:38
5. VandeVelde +0:39
6. Sastre +0:49

Essentially, these guys are tied, except for Sastre, who sucks at the time trial and needs about 2 minutes on all of them.

What we're waiting for in the next couple stages is for someone to take command and open a gap of minutes, not seconds. Kohl, VandeVelde, and Menchov never looked weak at any point today. Evans did, and Schleck did briefly, but recovered. Of course, past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tactics: I don't understand Lotto's decisions. Popovych is the only domestique on that team who can be relied on in the mountains, yet they wasted him chasing down the breakaway in the valley. By the time he was needed to protect Evans, he was already spent.

By the way, Andy Schleck was awesome today. At least twice he was dropped by attacks and then worked his way back to the front to set the pace for Sastre & Frank Schleck again. He's got guts!

2/3 to Paris

2008-07-19T12:24:00.002-05:00

Now 14 stages are down and 7 remain. Of those 7 there are 3 in the Alps, one time trial, two with rolling hills, and one flat finish.

With the win in stage 14, Oscar Freire looks to have the green jersey locked up. He leads THOR! by 47 points. With that sort of lead he just needs to stay upright and beat the time cutoffs in the Alps. Freire has been on fire this week, gaining points on THOR! in each of the last 4 stages.

As I said before, the KoM jersey is wide open. Lang has 60 points and leads his teammate, Kohl, by 1. But there are a ton of points available on the next 4 stages. The Gerolsteiner team now has a purpose--these two guys need to collect as many points as possible. Kohl is within a minute of the yellow jersey, so no one is going to let him attack, but Lang is almost an hour down, so look for him to get into the all-day breakaway to rack up points.

Finally, as we go to the Alps, we can see a shake-up in the yellow jersey race. We still have 9 men within 4 minutes of the lead. There are always some people who climb well in one group of mountains and bonk in the other, so expect changes right away. Evans is passive by nature, but CSC has already shown the ability to crack the peloton and attack the race lead. Valverde and Cunego figure to attack to make up the minutes they lost in the Pyrenees. Kohl, Vande Velde, and Efimkin are had to predict because we've never seen them in this position, and it would be a mistake for the "favorites" not to mark them. And then there is Menchov. I remember two years ago saying that he looked like the winner after the first set of mountains, but he cracked badly in the second group. This time, will he have what it takes to finish?

Drugs Are Bad

2008-07-17T22:48:00.004-05:00

I'm sick of defending cycling. I'm pissed that Ricco, who is only one of the most exciting and personable riders in the field, got caught doping. So here we are again.

Cycling's problem is not that it is dirty. Cycling is no more dirty than the NFL. In fact, it's probably far less dirty. It's just that cycling is actively trying to stop drug use, which is a public relations mistake. Cycling has probably the most rigorous testing of any sport in the world, and the stiffest penalties. They also test far more often and randomly. Add it all up, they actually catch drug cheats and do something about it. So drugs dominate the headlines.

The NFL, by contrast, has a sham of testing program which the players openly violate. The average offensive lineman has grown over 50 pounds in the last 15 years, and become quicker. We're supposed to believe there is nothing chemical to this great leap forward. Shawn Merriman gets caught doing steroids, and he's still named the NFL Defensive MVP. He serves a short suspension, and he's back doing Nike commercials. Not to pick on Merriman, because if you believe he's the only one in the NFL on steroids, I have a bridge to sell you.

So cycling actually caches drug users and does something about it. American sports, as a rule, just sweep the problem under the rug. Yet cycling is considered dirty? This defies all logic.

Cycling is actually doing something about drugs in sport. And their reward is to be universally derided. Why should any sport even attempt to clean up drugs in their sport when they can keep pretending the status quo is drug free?

We've criticized the anti-drug forces as akin to Victor Hugo's Javert, maniacally pursuing the wrongdoer to the point of absurdity. I still think there is some truth to that, but I fully support their decision to ban the entire Saunier Duval team. But the drugs don't make a guy a good cyclist. There is no injection that turns you into Eddy Merckx.

Morons--right and wrong

2008-07-17T21:29:00.002-05:00

We can officially stop eating crow on the topic of the Saunier Duval team. Riccardo Ricco tested positive for EPO and is gone. The whole team was pulled from the Tour. Either this is the act of team management that is party to the cheating and is running scared, or this is an overreaction that punishes the clean riders on the team. So long...we have a race to enjoy.

Mark Cavendish won another stage, his third of the Tour. No, there is no need to eat crow here, at least not yet. Last week when Poseur said Cavendish was out of the green jersey, he may have been prophetic. Three stage wins later, Cavendish is still 41 points behind the leader. Even if Cavendish wins the next two stages, he'd need Freire to finish far behind him in order to make significant gains. Then again, these guys still need to make it through the Alps, so nothing is certain. If Cavendish wishes to follow the example of great sprinters of the the past (Mario Chipolini, Alessandro Petachi), he'll abandon the race after Saturday's stage.

With the departure of Ricco, Sebastian Lang inherits the polka dot jersey and Vinny Nibali inherits the white jersey.

The KoM is a wide open race. Lang, with 58 points, leads his teammate, Kohl, by a measly 2 points. There are 15 guys with 20 or more points. There are 7 more category 1 or HC climbs remaining. You don't have to have many points to have a shot at this thing.

For the white jersey, Nibali leads his teammate, Kreutziger, by 2:42. Monfort is just a couple seconds behind him, and Andy Schleck is at +4:16. This will probably be a war of attrition. Whoever cracks less frequently and severely in the mountains will win.

Oh, yeah...Cadel Evans still has the yellow jersey by 1 second over Frank Schleck. He didn't slap anyone today.

Cadel and the Media

2008-07-16T19:38:00.004-05:00

VeloNews posted this youtube of Cadel Evans today, flipping out on a reporter.

Now, I'm not the biggest Evans fan in the world. In fact, I'm actively rooting against him. However, I don't actually dislike him. Videos of him overreacting don't help, but I feel like defending Cadel right now.

Dealing with the media has to suck. You ride for over 100 km, you're sore from the ride, your body is in pain from the crashes, and you have to talk to all of these people crowding your space. You have to plaster on a fake smile and answer each inane question like it was the first time you heard it. It's a tough gig. I understand that. And it's not like Cadel has ever had a real fuzzy relationship with the media anyway.

But it still doesn't excuse it, man. You can't react. You can't slap the reporter. Or else you end up on youtube looking like a jackass.

Bonus points to the bodyguard who called the reporter a douchebag.

CSC gets a stage win

2008-07-16T10:28:00.002-05:00

CSC finally got a stage win for their trophy case in stage 11. This time it was Kurt-Asle Arvensen, who was part of an 11 man breakaway. Those guys must have been very tired at the finish line, because Arvesen won the "sprint" from the front--no one had the strength to pass him. Now all 2 Norwegians in the Tour have won a stage. Think about it--Norway and Luxembourg are dominating the Tour de France.

Koos Moerenhout was 4th. I'm glad I had an excuse to say Koos Moerenhout.

There was no action concerning the leaders' jerseys today, although THOR! did pick up 5 points on Freire's lead. The next 3 stages are flat ones, so we'll have to pay closer attention to them

Current standings:
Freire 138
Kirchen 128
THOR! 117
Zabel 99

Stage 10: Sorting Day

2008-07-14T21:09:00.002-05:00

First off, congrats to Saunier Duval. Leonardo Piepoli took the stage, beating his teammate Juan Jose Coba Acebo to the line. Both were able to breakaway and stay ahead all day. They won't win the GC, but stage wins are still wins. Saunier Duval has been awesome. Now, just assorted comments.

... Valverde is done. He's not a great time trialist, and his way to win this Tour was to be the strongest climber and build enough of a lead to hold off Evans in the ITT. He was one of the first guys to crack and he lost nearly six minutes today. He needs a miracle to get back in this because he doesn't just need to make up the six minutes, he needs an additional three or four cushion. He's not going to leapfrog every GC contender.

... How awesome is CSC? Jens Voigt set a suicidal pace and single handedly cracked the peloton. Voigt is insane. I simply cannot say enough good things about him. Sastre couldn't quite take advantage of Voigt's ride, but Frank Schleck could and now he's the guy who looks like the GC contender. Sastre isn't done by any means, but CSC is going to have to sort itself out and decide who their GC guy is. But probably not until the Alps.

... Let's give some serious credit to Oscar Freire. He attacked early and picked up some valuable points to take the Green Jersey back. He now has 7 points on Kirchen and 26 on THOR! He even hung with the climbers much longer than he had to, showing some real strength.

... Christian Vande Velde had a great ride, and suddenly looks like a contender. He never really suffered and finished in with the Evans group of the serious contenders. He did make a tactical error and stayed with Evans-Menchov, expecting one of them to attack which of course, neither did. It wasn't a huge error, but he should have pushed the pace a little earlier. Evans and Menchov simply don't attack. That's a very small quibble with a guy who was the big surprise of the day. Is he a podium contender? Why not?

... Frank Schleck was the only contender to escape and he is one second down. Other than him, the likely winner of the Tour finished in that Evans group: Evans, Menchov, Sastre, Vande Velde, and Ricco. That's an awesome five man group, and one of them (or Schleck) is going to win the Tour. None of them won the tour today, but Cunego and Valverde probably lost it.

... Kim Kirchen cracked. Not badly, but he is out of the Yellow and the Green. He's only 1:56 down, so he's still in the GC chase, but he did look outclassed on the mountains these last two days. It's probably time to focus on the Green.

... What a great day. That was an exciting stage.

Bastille Day Fireworks

2008-07-14T11:03:00.003-05:00

On a stage featuring the Tourmalet and Hautacam you’d figure Oscar Friere would be one of the anonymous riders, but he had the brilliant idea to start a breakaway so he could get 12 points in the intermediate sprints. That was enough to take the green jersey from Kirchen. We’ve been saying Kirchen could do damage against the sprinters by picking up a few points here and there on mountain stages, and he did get 4 pts. in stage 9. Advantage neutralized.

At first the climb up Tourmalet was chaotic, with various cyclists launching attacks out of the large peloton constantly. Finally CSC providing something this Tour has been missing—they took control of the peloton. They had 4 men at the lead and Jens Voigt set the pace for several kilometers. He cut the peloton by about 75%. With Sastre and the Schleck brothers right behind him, he forced Cunego and Valverde off the back and they never recovered. Evans, Menchov and Kirchen remained, but lost all their teammates. Voigt has always been an uber-domestique, and this was some of his finest work.

If the Tourmalet belonged to CSC, the Saunier Duval team owned Hautacam. Leo Piepoli and Jose Cobo launched an attack that only Frank Schleck could match, until they dropped him near the finish line. Kim Kirchen was dispatched, eventually leaving a chase group of Menchov, Evans, Sastre, Ricco, and VandeVelde, who is riding way over his head here. So, Piepoli won the stage and Evans finished fast enough to take the yellow jersey by 1 second over Frank Schleck.

New overall standings:
1. Evans
2. Frank Schleck +0:01
3. Vande Velde +0:38
4. Kohl +0:46
5. Menchov +0:57
6. Sastre +1:28
7. Kirchen +1:56
8. Cobo +2:10
9. Ricco +2:29
10. Efimkin +2:32
14. Valverde +4:41
16. Cunego +5:37

The last two guys are in a world of hurt now, but the top 10 are within 3 minutes of each other. Game on! Sastre may have squandered a golden opportunity today. Menchov, Schelck, and Evans have a tight race. Kirchen is damaged, but it’s not disasterous. Then there are the guys lurking under the radar like Kohl, Efimkin, and VandeValde.

And I’ll continue to eat crow on Saunier Duval. Today they picked up their 3^rd stage win, they placed 3 in the top 6 on the stage, and Ricco now wears the white jersey and the KoM jersey. All that, and they took the lead in the team competition.

Things Change In The Mountains

2008-07-13T13:06:00.003-05:00

Finally, we get to the big mountains, although the second of two cat. 1 climbs was about 25 km from the finish, and that takes a little drama out of it.

The high mountains separate the contenders from the pretenders. When Riccardo Ricco passed Sebastian Lang like he was standing still on the final climb, it was obvious who was the pretender and who would win the stage by over a minute. That's now 2 stage wins for Ricco, who would be a serious yellow jersey contender if he didn't suck at the time trial. He can contend for the white jersey, though. He's currently 4th, 37 seconds behind Andy Schleck. Thomas Lovkvist was exposed as a pretender today, finishing over 6 minutes behind and losing the white jersey.

There wasn't much of a shakeup in the yellow jersey race. Kirchen, Evans, Valverde, Cunego, Sastre, Menchov, and the Schleck brothers all finished together, so Kirchen maintains his 6 second lead over Evans. But Kirchen has reasons to be worried. After the race he admitted he didn't feel well and said if he rides that way tomorrow, he's going to be dropped. He spent most of the last climb at the back of the pack, and he had only one teammate with him. In contrast, Valverde had two Banesto guys finish with him and two others who were with him setting the pace for most of the last climb, and there were three guys from CSC together in the bunch. Columbia may have dominated the first week, but they don't have many bullets in the chamber in the high mountains. I don't know why there weren't more attacks on him while he was hanging on to the back of the peloton. Kirchen is a target that's ripe for the picking. I think he's better off giving up the jersey by a few seconds and stalking the leader until the time trial. For now, he can console himself with the fact that he picked up 4 points at the finish line to re-take the green jersey.

David De La Fuente is proving he's not a pretender in the KoM race. He stayed with the peloton over both cat. 1 climbs and picked up 27 points. Contrast that to Voeckler and Chavanel, who were nowhere to be found once the road got steep.

Questionable tactics:
I already mentioned that I'm surprised that neither Banesto nor CSC attacked Kirchen when he was hanging on to the tail end of the peloton on the last climb, but that wasn't the only odd thing I noticed. Gerolsteiner did well in terms of supporting Lang's run at climbing points by sending Kohl to take 3rd place on the last climb and limit De La Fuente's points, but they should beat Schumacker with a stick for launching an attack at the base of the climb. He got nothing out of it except tired, and it encouraged the peloton to close the gap on Lang. The other questionable move was by Euskaltel. They took over the pace for the two big mountains, and it destroyed their team. Only two of their guys could stay with the group, and their leader, Zubledia, got dropped and finished 9 minutes back. They hurt themselves...and for what...so that they could be on TV for 20 minutes.

Finally, let's eat a little crow. Poseur and I both pronounced the Saunier Duval team DOA last week. Through 9 stages they have 2 stage wins. Ricco wore the white jersey for 2 days and is still in contention. De La Fuente is wearing dots after one day in the Pyrenees, and they are 3rd in the team race. So far, so good.

Stage 8

2008-07-12T11:26:00.002-05:00

The Team Columbia train just keeps on rolling. Cavendish has now taken his second stage, Lovqvist is still in white, and Kirchen is still in Yellow. About the only thing that didn't go perfectly is that Kirchen is now tied for the Green Jersey lead and has relinquished the honors to Oscar Freire.

So, today was the last sprinting stage for awhile and we head to the torture of the mountains. And the race is about to sort itself out.

Not really much to say about today as it was just a holding pattern until we enter hell.

Things get tricky for Triki

2008-07-11T21:25:00.002-05:00

Manuel Beltran has been removed from the Tour for failing a drug test (EPO) after Stage 1. Beltran is on the Liquigas team, but was on USPS/Discovery a few years ago when Lance Armstrong was busy writing the record books.

1) It took a week for the Tour to pull the plug on him. Was that because they were careful to get the testing accurate?

2) Now that he's been caught, will he say that Lance Armstrong took dope too?

Stage 7

2008-07-11T10:50:00.002-05:00

We get excited when a breakaway succeeds because the peloton usually reels them in. Today Luis-Leon Sanchez did something even more impressive. He was in a breakaway that got caught around 5 km from the finish, but he attacked a few minutes later and held off the chase. And while I criticized Banesto for bringing a talented team that had not won a stage since 2005, they've won two of the first 7 this year.

Most of the yellow jersey contenders finishing together, 6 seconds behind Sanchez, whose premature celebration came close to costing him the win. The exceptions were Cunego and Zubledia, who seem to like riding in the middle of the peloton so they can get lost when the field splits because of a hill or crash. They finished in a bunch 33 seconds behind Sanchez.

All of the sprinters were in that group too (or further back). So, they didn't win any points on the finish line. Kim Kirchen, however, finished 4th, which is good for 18 points. He also won points in the second intermediate sprint. In the first sprint, Robbie Hunter and THOR! scored 6 and 2 respectively, so Kirchen attacked on the second sprint, taking 4 points while Freire got 6. So, it's clear that the sprinters have a big problem. Kirchen isn't just keeping the green jersey warm for the sprinters, he's taking this very seriously, and now has 119 points. Freire and THOR! trail with 91 and 90 points.

The KoM changed hands again today. David de la Fuente picked up 24 points today to overtake Chavanel. See, this is why we mock the poseurs who keep the KoM jersey warm before the big mountains...they aren't strong enough climbers to contest the little category 2 & 3 climbs on consecutive days. Chavanel and Voeckler didn't contend for squat today.

Telekom Revisited

2008-07-10T18:59:00.002-05:00

We used to get a lot of mileage making fun of Team Telekom. Mainly because they answered the question of "Is it possible for a team to be too talented?" with a resounding yes. It was a beautiful demonstration of total dysfunction. The question wasn't if Telekom was going to dissolve into bickering factions, but when.

So, now the Ullrich is retired, Zabel is on Milram, and Kloden and Vino are on Astana and not even at the Tour, Telekom gets a makeover. And I'm not even talking about the new name in Team Columbia - High Road.

Lovqvist is in White. And he's not a fluke, he really can win it. Cavendish won a stage. And Kirchen is technically in both Yellow and Green. This is a team that looks like it can do anything right now. They lost all of their stars, but they look like a better team. Heck, even Hincapie looks good right now. They look, dare I say it, harmonious.

I kind of miss the old days.

Columbia doesn't wear Dots

2008-07-10T10:47:00.003-05:00

It would be nice if someone from the Columbia team led the King of the Mountains race, because they would have a compete set. They'll have to settle for holding the yellow jersey, the green jersey, the white jersey, and the team time lead all on the same day.

Two category 2 climbs made for a good stage. Naturally, the long breakaway failed, but not before Sylvain Chavanel racked up enough points to take the KoM jersey from Voeckler. They're tied in points, but since Chavanel won a cat. 2 climb, he gets to wear the dots. This was an odd mountain stage because the climb was only cat. 2, so there was a large bunch of riders together at the front for the final climb--41 finished within 1 minute of the stage winner. Yet, neither Chavanel nor Voeckler was among them. Yeah, they're not the best climbers, are they?

Back to Columbia, though. Kirchen leads the whole race in time and in points because he's finished in the top 11 in 5 of the 6 stages. Thomas Lovkvist has worn the white jersey since the time trial. George Hincapie has been finishing strong too to give them 3 high places every day. You can argue that the yellow jersey just fell into Kirchen's lap today. It looked like Schumacher would hang on, but he clipped Kirchen's wheel in the last km and fell, causing him to finish 28 seconds behind Kirchen.

Oh, by the way, Riccardo Ricco Suave won the stage by sprinting past the lead group in the finishing strait. If he didn't suck at the time trial, he might lead the whole race. Banesto took control of the pace on the last climb for Valverde. They didn't get anything for it, other than tired. This sets a precedent, though. The other teams will see them as the de facto leaders and they're obliged to set tempo even if they don't have the jersey.

Correction: I was wrong about the team time. Garmin-Chipotle retains the lead, ever so slightly. CSC is in second at +0:19, and Columbia is third at +0:20.

I'm a Moron

2008-07-09T20:07:00.003-05:00

About the only thing I've learned during this first week of the Tour is that I am a total moron.

I make fun of Agributel, they win a stage. I pooh pooh Gerolsteiner, they win a stage and have Schumacher in yellow. I write off Cavendish, he wins a stage. I marvel of Kirchen, he decides to not contend a sprint. I say the crash isn't that bad, it turns out Soler broke his wrist and he's out of the Tour

Seriously, I got nothing. I've been about as wrong as someone can be in the first week. So it was nice that things reverted back to form in Stage 5. It was the kind of stage that made perfect sense. Even if, once again, it made me look stupid.

This has already been an exiciting Tour and we're only five stages in. We aren't even in the mountains yet. How great is this?

Stage 5: A Return to Normalcy

2008-07-09T10:34:00.004-05:00

Checklist for a normal flat stage...
Three Frenchmen from lesser teams go on a 200+ km breakaway. Check.

The peloton catches the breakaway in the last few kilometers. Check. Check plus for reeling in Nick Vogondy with about 100 meters remaining.

A bunch sprint finish dominated by the guys who ought to be winning sprints. Check.
1. Cavendish
2. Freire
3. Zabel
4. THOR!
5. Cooke
6. Hunter
8. McEwen

A sprinter takes the green jersey from Kim Kirchen. Check.
1. THOR! (88)
2. Freire (85)
3. Kirchen (81)
4. Zabel (71...points, not years)

How abnormal that things went the way they normally do!

The profile for stage 6 suggests it might not be normal. Two category 2 climbs should break up the peloton, but since they are only cat. 2, they probably won't separate the elite climbers from everyone else like, say, an Alp would. It may give Kirchen a chance to get points at the expense of the sprinters again.

image from letour.com

What's Old Is New

2008-07-08T20:31:00.002-05:00

There are two riders right now who are riding like a throwback. One is good and one is, well, maybe not bad, but it isn't something I like.

That would be Cadel Evans. I know we're supposed to rally around the English-speaker, and I do tend to like the Aussies on the Tour, but I just can't bring myself to root for Evans. In fact, I desperately want him to lose. Nothing personal, but I just don't want to see someone rewarded for dusting off the old Inudrain strategy of "win the time trial and just hang on in the mountains".

It can be effective, just ask Indurain. But it is also excruciatingly boring. It's just not good for the sport for the contenders to not attack each other in the mountains. Now, if it's just one or two guys, like Evans and Menchov, I guess it's not a big deal. It's just one strategy and different styles are always welcome. But winning tends to breed imitators, and I'd hate to see Evans' strategy to be emulated. So I'm nipping it in the bud. I want him to lose, just so we see more attacking cycling.

And in just under 30 km, he put in at least a minute into every contender save Menchov and our other throwback, Kim Kirchen.

In fact, Evans didn't put any time into Kirchen. Kirchen took nine seconds from Evans, which means almost nothing. But Kirchen is doing something we just never see in this era of specialization: he's looking like a contender in two separate classifications.

Kirchen's probably not going to win the Tour, but he is a legit contender. And he's in 2nd place overall right now and can actually climb. He did finish 7th in last year's Tour and he's got a great team behind him. I think we need to take him seriously in the GC.

But he's also contesting the Green Jersey. He's not just in the Green as some fluke. He now holds a 17 point lead over Hushovd, and look at his finishes in each stage:

1st Stage - 4
2nd Stage - 2
3rd Stage - 11
4th Stage - 4

He was one of the strongest rider in the "classics" style stage. He was one of the first guys across the line in both bunch sprints we've seen. And unlike the other Green Jersey contenders, he can actually win points in the mountains. He doesn't have to win these sprints, just keep finishing top five and then pick up some more points in the mountains.

When was the last time we've seen a guy be a viable threat in both the Yellow and Green Jersey competitions? Hopefully, he can keep this up. He doesn't need to win, but it would just be great to see a guy legitimately contest in both classifications.

The Little Race of Truth

2008-07-08T11:04:00.001-05:00

The Stage 4 Individual Time Trial was less than 30 km, but it still produced impressive time gaps. Just ask Alejandro Valverde or Yaroslav Popovych.

The hero of the day was Stephan Schumacher of Gerolsteiner, so for two consecutive days, teams we ripped in the preview come up with a nice result. Schumacher was so good today, he beat the world champion time trialist by 33 seconds. For his trouble, he also gets to wear the yellow jersey with a 12 second lead over Kim Kirchen & David Millar.

Other winners:

Kim Kirchen was second on the stage and is now second in the overall standings. I think I will start taking him seriously. Yeah, we’re not through the first week yet, and anyone can crack in the mountains, but so far Kim Kirchen has been awesome. He still wears the green jersey and he’s got the lead on all the yellow jersey contenders.

Cadel Evans finished 4^th, only 9 seconds behind Kirchen. He’s in great position too.

Denis Menchov finished 6^th, so he reclaimed much of the time he lost due to the crash in stage 3. He’s now a minute behind Kirchen, but ahead of Valverde.

Cunego, Valverde, Sastre, Pereiro, and Frank Schleck sustained moderate damage, less than 2 minutes to Kirchen. That’s substantial time, but not devastating.

Big losers: Zubledia and Popovych lost more than 3 minutes. So, there will be no controversy at Lotto—Popovych works for Evans. Maybe Zubledia should take the hint and realize he should go for a stage win in the mountains.

The other big losers were the TV audience whenever Vs. went to the in-car camera. It was painful. They make such a big deal about the cyclists getting great information from the team managers. Well, based on what we saw, that information consists of “Go! You look good. You can make up the gap. Go!” I thought the guys in the car were having a who-can-be-more-vapid contest.

But how about Columbia. They had 3 men finish in the top 11 in the time trial. They’re now second to Chipotle in the team standings. Kirchen wears green again, and Thomas Lovkvist wears white.

The Breakaway Wins!

2008-07-07T10:58:00.002-05:00

Quick show of hands…anybody predict that Roman Feillu of Agritubel would wear the yellow jersey?

Didn’t think so.

Just a couple days ago we practically said the whole team rides bikes with training wheels.

It’s nice to see a breakaway succeed. Feilli, Frischkorn, Borghini, and Dumoulin put in an amazing effort to stay away for 200 km and win by 2 minutes. Those guys were even strong enough for an exciting sprint finish in the final km, won by Dumoulin. Since a Frenchman won the stage and a Frenchman now wears yellow, the Frenchmen who run the Tour, in their magnanimity, awarded the American, Frischkorn, with the bogus title of most aggressive rider, which is normally reserved for the Frenchman who tries hardest yet still loses.

Perhaps more importantly, the crash in the peloton in the last 20 km split the field, and the lagging group couldn’t catch up. At the finish line the back half of the peloton, including Menchov and Ricco, finished 40 seconds behind the yellow jersey. Doh!

Robbie McEwen led the chase group to the finish, and it’s a big deal for him to beat Hushovd, Freiere, et al to the line, but the difference in points is muted a bit by the breakaway gang taking the top 4 spots. Instead of 35 points for a stage win, he got 22 for a 5^th place finish. Zabel, Hushovd, and Freire were 6^th-8^th. Kim Kirchen finished 11^th, close enough to hold the green jersey over Hushovd by 5 points.

Tour Ambiance

2008-07-07T00:51:00.004-05:00

For a couple years the other cycling blogs poked fun at Al Trautwig, co-host of Tour coverage on OLN/VS, and not because of his name, either. The guys at tdfblog.com gleefully announced that he was ditched this year. I don't know if VS. didn't want him back or if he decided to work the Olympic Trials & Olympics instead. Whatever the case, I don't join the ongoing Trautwig-bashing party. Yes, he asked a lot of neophyte questions--that was his job. If the network only wanted hardcore cycling fans who do 100 miles a week to watch, they'd never have a large enough audience to pay their bills. He wasn't brilliant, but I didn't find him annoying or pompous. I thought he was actually good at his job--the desk jockey who gets the discussion rolling on the topics at hand. But have you seen what they replaced him with? It's only been two days on the job for Craig Hummer, but jeez...it doesn't take long for me to hit the mute button or change the channel when he's talking.

Trautwig photo lifted from http://bp2.blogger.com.

The other ambiance note has to do with VS. commercials. Poseur already ripped the commercial featuring the dopers. I thought that the visual effect of showing those guys in reverse was clever, but the music is depressing. The commercial is too much art and it misses the mark, plus it's pretty tacky to show Erik Zabel's son in a commercial about cheaters. There is a second commercial that hits the bullseye. We love this sport because these guys are masochists. Voeckler is a great poster boy for this ad. Screw the critics, the dopers, and the doping police. We watch because guys like Voeckler are willing to suffer.

Stage 2: Thunderstruck

2008-07-06T14:29:00.003-05:00

Thor is a bad man.

I have an unabiding man crush on Thor Hushovd. I didn't pick him to win the Green Jersey this year mainly because I didn't want to pick the guy I was openly rooting for. It clouds my judgment. But, I should've picked him because he is the God of Thunder. And he is awesome.

It's been tough going for the sprinters. Instead of nice flat stages ending in a bunch sprint, we've had really difficult hilly stages which have favored the roulers instead of the sprinters. So, of course, a sprinter won anyway. But of the major Green Jersey contenders, only a few finished in the top 10: Hushovd (1st), Hunter (4th), Zabel (5th), and Friere (7th). It's hard to say that the other guys won't be contenders, but those are the sprinters who managed to show some all-around ability to be in the final sprint. Another stage out of the points, and Cavendish and McEwen can pack up and go home.

But what is Kim Kirchen doing? He's in green right now and finished second at the line. He even had a lead out. Is he trying to contest the sprinters jersey? Or is he just trying to show he is a contender? Or just trying to grab a stage win? I don't really know. But he's been one of the most interesting riders over the first weekend save Thomas Voeckler.

Updated Stage 1 Standings

2008-07-05T11:28:00.004-05:00

The only way there was only a 1 second time gap was if the finish line had been in some region of the Twilight Zone where time slows down. The results have been corrected. Here are important details...

Kirchen, Evans, Frank Schleck, Pereiro +:01
Sastre, Andy Schleck, Beltran, Hincapie, Menchov, Zubeldia, JENS VOIGT +0:07
Popovych +0:18
Moreau +0:39
Joost Posthuma, Koos Moerenhout +2:00
Soler +3:04

No, the few seconds between Valverde and the other real contenders (stopping at Popovych) aren't much. They probably will not matter in 3 weeks. In the first week they may matter when it comes to passing around the yellow jersey, and they will make a difference in the starting order for the Individual Time Trial on Tuesday.

In the Green jersey competition, the uphill finish prevented a bunch sprint, so the green jersey favorites didn't capture big points. Valverde leads for now. Freire did take 17 points, and Hushovd scored 11. Zabel got 4. McEwen, O'Grady, and Cooke got nothing. So, Freire & Thor have a little insurance for later.

Stage One: It's On

2008-07-05T10:18:00.002-05:00

First off, Versus' TdF commericals are simply depressing. Exactly what advertising agency came up with the idea of promoting the Tour by playing a mournful acoustic song while showing images of doping cyclists in reverse. Wow. I'm pumped up.

Secondly, we've lost our first rider: Herve Duclos LaSalle of Cofidis. He was taken out by a feed bag. Which is just a crappy way to get knocked out of the Tour.

Soler also crashed today and I don't have his time losses yet, but it looked to be significant. As long as he's not injured, this is actually a good thing for Soler. Now, he is even less of a threat in the GC and will be allowed out on a breakaway to contest the dots. Let's be honest, he's not concerned about time at the end of the day.

Voeckler's in dots. Every Frenchman is having warm fuzzy feelings about his ride in 2004 right now.

But the big story is Valverde. He came around the final turn and just slingshot past Kim Kirchen like he was standing still to win the stage. The common wisdom is that the favorites don't want the Yellow in the first week, but there is something to be said for winning on the first day to make a bit of a statement. Valverde told every rider in the field that he is willing to attack and that he is in the strongest form. He's staking his claim as the favorite. Typical to his style, Evans rode in the winning group, but not contesting the finish. We could be seeing this happen over and over again.

The Bloated Preview

2008-07-03T13:01:00.002-05:00

It’s Tour time! Let’s just skip the part about doping. Two of the three podium finishers last year aren’t in the Tour, but Leipheimer wasn’t gonna win this thing anyway. But it sucks that we always open with doping and who isn’t racing. So let’s jump right to it: Cadel Evans finished 2nd last year and is a huge favorite this year. So let’s come up with reasons why the Aussie isn’t going to win!

JG: I’ll open with doping. Innocent until proven guilty. Enjoy the race. If anyone gets caught doping, you can call him a cheat and move on.

But first Team Previews, in alphabetical order:

AG2R
A waste of space. Without Moreau, even moreso. Maybe Calzati will win a stage, or Gadret will crack the top 20…but who cares?

JG: Valjavec finished 19th last year. That’s all the chest thumping they can do heading into this thing. The bar is low for AG2r, and I’m not sure they’ll clear it.

AGRIBUTEL
Repeat what I said about AG2R, only with Moreau on the roster. At age 37. Seriously, you’re not gonna win.

JG: Yet, I bet Phil & Paul talk about them a lot. Moreau used to be good. Jimmy Casper used come close to stage wins. Jalobert is the brother of a guy who used to win jerseys. But there is no escaping the fact that this team is wretched.

BARLOWORLD
The surprise of last year’s Tour, Soler came out of nowhere to win the dots, which makes him an excellent candidate to make that his thing. Win KoM while the heavy hitters go after the yellow. Robbie Hunter finished 2nd last year in the Green and Baden Cooke’s no slouch. All of a sudden, this is a real interesting team for the non-GC classifications. So, do they ride for the former winner Cooke or the guy who did better last year in Hunter? Having two guys at the top usually doesn’t bode well for the team involved, but I think they manage it. Who cares about learning from the past?

JG: Interesting facts: nationalities of the Barloworld guys: 2 Italians, 2 Columbians, 2 South Africans, one each from Spain, Kenya, Australia. Simply put, this team is as unorthodox as Soler’s cycling form. I don’t think Cooke will be a serious threat for green, but I expect them to be fun to watch again. Soler for dots, breakaways for stage wins.

BOUYGUES TELECOM
Still living off the glory of Voeckler’s gutty run in 2004. Nostalgia is kind of cool on VH1, not so much in the Tour. They probably won’t even win a stage.

JG: Can I still call them Bogus Telekom now that Telekom/T-Mobile no longer sponsors a team? Bouygues looks to be in a fight with AG2r and Agritubel to see what team finishes the race having done the least to justify its invitation.

CAISSE D’EPARGNE (BANESTO)
As our custom, we will refer to this team as Banesto, the old sponsor, because it is easier. Oscar Perreiro settles into his role as a domestique, though he can now call himself a former Tour winner. Valverde is a stud, and one of the favorites. Karpets is listed as an alternate, and Arroyo will be in the race, so there is a deep stable to back up the run at the Yellow. He’s the guy you’re backing if you think Cadel is gonna lose since this course doesn’t favor his time trialing edge. Which of course means, I’m backing Valverde. This is his Tour to lose. Really. Even though he’s never been on the podium before.

JG: Yes, they again send a deep team that should do some damage. That would be a big difference from last year because they had a deeply talented team that came away with nothing. I am a Valverde doubter, although the case you make for him below is strong.

Rebuttal: Show me you can deliver in the Tour before I believe you. I still think he isn’t tough enough to excel day after day in the long & steep mountains that the Tour offers.

COFIDIS
The French team that’s actually legit. They won’t win anything, but they are the standard bearers for the peloton. Won’t embarrass themselves, which is high praise for a French team.

JG: Not really a resounding endorsement for Cofids. If it weren’t for AG2r, Agritubel, and BT, you’d be more critical, wouldn’t you?

SB: Yes.

CREDIT AGRICOLE
Thor!!! CA used to be a well-rounded team that tried to compete in everything, but now it just exists to ride as a train for Hushovd, who I friggin’ love. OK, he’s not going to win the Green, but I will openly root for him like I always do.

JG: I think Thor’s got a decent chance, especially with Boonen out of the race. But, yes, this team is really relying on him. No one else on that team has ever amounted to anything in the Tour.

CSC
Probably the best team on earth. Of the heavy hitters of the Lance Era, only CSC is still going strong in anything resembling it’s original form. Sastre is a podium contender as a climber who can’t time trial. But what a team. Cancellera is going to wear yellow after the prologue. The Schleck brothers are great domestiques, each have a shot at a top ten finish, and Andy is a near lock to win the White. O’Grady will contest a few sprint stages. And then there’s Jens Voigt. I don’t think there’s a guy in the Tour I like more than Voigt. I hope he wins a stage.

JG: There is no prologue this year, but Cancellara may still work his way into yellow. The great thing about this team is that they have the talent to find success regardless how the race unfolds. They could have different guys win a few stages, or Sastre might be a podium contender.

EUSKATEL
I write them off, and the finally show up last year. I say that, but they didn’t wear a jersey or win a stage, but at least they had two guys in the top ten and Zubeldia finished 5th. He’s an outside podium contender, but I just don’t see it. He can’t time trial and the team is always more concerned with the Vuelta. I’m hoping last year wasn’t a fluke, but I just don’t see them seriously putting a guy on the podium.

JG: Zubledia is an awesome rider. He consistently finishes well in the GC…it would be nice to see him win a stage or wear a jersey. But if the past is predictive, he’ll finish in the top 10 and the rest of his team will be invisible.

FDJ
Casar or Chavanel might win a stage. That’s about where this team peaks. Cofidis with less talent.

JG: Another French team with questionable talent? Is this 5 already? Well, someone has to win stages and wear the leader’s jerseys. With so many weak teams, there’s an opportunity for one of these loser teams. Of course, there are so many weak teams because so many cyclists have been exiled by doping scandals, but I digress.

SB: Not entirely fair. The French teams sucked before the doping scandals and they were getting invites back then as well.

GARMIN-CHIPOTLE
I rarely mention the second sponsor on teams, but I do have to say I love a Chipotle burrito. Just sayin’. Tom Danielson is a no-show, so they aren’t a threat to win anything. Millar will lose the time trial and find a way to blame someone else. Why does the standard bearer for anti-doping have to be such a whiny puss?

JG: Julian Dean is a pretty talented sprinter who could steal a stage, but I don’t think he’ll contend for green. But, yeah, this team doesn’t look strong, but is likely to get lots of attention because of their anti-doping theme.

GEROLSTEINER
Their goal is to win stages. So they’ve conceded the GC and any other classification and they hope Wegmann or Fothen can catch people napping. Way to set the goals high, boys.

JG: Remember a few years ago we said Gerolsteiner was at the crossroads between taking the next step to becoming a serious team or getting stuck in the mud with the other also-rans? So how has that turned out?

HIGH ROAD
Rogers is a no-show, which actually makes things clear for the team: Kim Kirchen is the man. The former T-Mobile team is actually a bigger threat to win the Green as Mark Cavendish has decided to show up. The question is: can he make it through the Alps? And look! George Hincapie sighting!

JG: And how pleased they must be to pin their hopes on Kirchen instead of Rogers! Are you mentioning Cavendish to mock the buzz that the cycling mags are throwing his way? Isn’t it more likely that he’s just the next edition in a long line of over-hyped British athletes?

SB: It’s possible, and I’m not picking him to win, but the field for Green is wide open. He’s also done well in his head to head contests with most of the sprinters in the field. But he’s British and will therefore lose.

LAMPRE
Never, ever, ever bet on an Italian team in the Tour. Cunego would be a favorite to win, I just can’t bring myself to believe they will actually try. Maybe they will. But I’m skeptical.

JG: Lemme tell ya something…Cunego is the only rider in the race who has ever won a Grand Tour, except Pereiro, who won due to Floyd Landis’ failed drug test. No, I’m not advising you bet on Cunego, but if anyone in the field is a sleeper pick, he’s the guy. And remember, he won the Giro when his team was supposedly working for Gilberto Simoni, so he can do is work when he lacks the full support of a team.

SB: Apparently Menchov’s two Vuelta wins didn’t happen.

LIQUIGAS
Speaking of Italian teams not trying in the Tour: Bennati is skipping the Tour. Which dials back the expectations to…what, exactly? The Spanish guy (Beltran) trying to finish top 15?

JG: Bennati is injured. Still, Pozatto won a stage last year, and also won one a couple years prior. Roman Kreuziger won the Tour of Switzerland last month. He’s a Tour rookie…sometimes talented rookies get crushed, and sometimes they don’t. Anyway, he’s a white jersey contender. So this team could be good: a stage win or 2, a top 20 finish, and a jersey contender.

LOTTO
Evans for the Yellow. McEwen for the Green. Popovych to domestique. Pretty simple formula. The Pocket rocket ain’t exactly the dominant force he once was, which leads to a dilemma: how much effort do you expend trying to win the Green when you need to save energy for the mountains to win the Yellow? We’ll see how serious a threat McEwen is by his team’s behavior because you have to think they want to conserve their energy and maybe try and win just one stage for old time’s sake for McEwen.

JG: Think I pronounced McEwen too old three years ago. So long as Zabel is still racing, maybe McEwen isn’t too old. He only has 3 wins on the year, so maybe he is out of gas. The absence of Boonen makes him an intimidating factor again. Evans was oh-so-close to winning the Tour last year. Was that because he’s the next big thing, or was that his one chance that slipped away? Although he’s the heavy favorite, I’m wondering if he can drop people in the mountains.

SB: I’m not just doubting it, I’m flat out saying it: Evans will not drop the serious contenders in the mountains. If he wins, it’s the hang on tight in the climbs and win on the ITT strategy.

MILRAM
Zabel keeps showing up despite having nothing to prove. He’s the greatest sprinter in Tour history, but he hasn’t won a stage since 2002. Someone let him win one so he can retire. Actually, don’t. Because he was a factor last year and if you let him win one, he’ll win the Green.

JG: In two years on the Tour, Milram has never won a stage or worn a jersey. Their best finish was 41st. So, let’s see you guys do something to earn a bid.

QUICK STEP
Boonen got caught doing cocaine so all of a sudden, this team has nothing to ride for. Steegmans once accidentally beat Boonen in a sprint, so I guess he’s their point man now.

JG: Yikes! It could be a bad year for a team that usually does well. Just wondering... did Boonen go to Florida St?

RABOBANK
Menchov is the last of the big favorites (with Evans, Sastre, and Valverde), but probably the longshot of the four. Rabobank always brings a strong team, though this one isn’t as strong as past editions, but Menchov has always cracked on the big climbs. Freire is there to contend for the Green and this might be his best chance to ever win it. Rabobank has to make a tough choice over whether to support him, though I doubt they will.

JG: Menchov has looked great mid-race, but faded—a definite stamina problem. There are a couple former/potential stage winners on this team. I wonder if they will be an average team, or if they’ll manage something more. So much depends upon Menchov actually finishing the job.

SAUNIER DUVAL
De La Feunte wore the dots once for attacking on a flat stage. That’s the kind of event they need for success in the Tour.

JG: An also-ran, imported from Italy.

OK, enough of this. Let’s get to the picks:

DOTS
1. Soler
2. Astarloza
3. Sastre
Here’s the logic: neither Soler or Astarloza are GC contenders, and they’ll be allowed to rack up the points. Sastre will be know he’s gonna get his ass kicked in the time trial and will have a huge day in the mountains to make up for it. Popovych and Evans might show up as a tag team.

JG:
1. Soler
2. Popovych
3. Koos Moerenhout
Here’s the logic. We know Soler can win, and so does he. He’ll suffer again for two long mountain breakaways to get the points. I pick Popovych because either he’ll be leading Evans over the mountains or riding for himself if Evans blows it. I picked Koos because his name is cool, and there was no other way we would mention it. Besides, the KoM is a total crap shoot.

GREEN
1. McEwen
2. Cavendish
3. Zabel

I’m going with the old men. I’m not sold on Hunter, as I think last year was a fluke, and he only won one stage. Hushovd gobbles up those intermediate points but rarely wins the big sprint, though I am pulling for him. Freire is the guy who scares me. Cavendish is just too young, though I think this is good experience. There’s about 10 other guys who have a shot depending on how the first week goes, but I’m not sold on anyone. And Zabel finished 3rd last year. Why can’t he do it again?

JG:
1. Thor
2. Sebastien Chavanel
3. Zabel

I don’t think Cavendish or McEwen will make it through the mountains, but I think Zabel will. Chavanel was pretty good last year, and Thor is Thor. He’s won several stages in the past, and he won the green jersey without winning a stage. Consistent, but able to win a stage or two.

YELLOW
1. Valverde
2. Evans
3. Sastre
4. F. Schleck
5. Menchov

I don’t trust Cunego. Zubeldia doesn’t have the team. Kirchen is interesting, but I can’t see him winning, though he might sneak onto the podium. I can see one of the Schlecks making a run at it (probably Frank), which will tank CSC’s unity and any chance Sastre has given his crappy time trialing. Menchov always finds away to grab defeat, and I don’t think Rabobank can carry him in the Alps. So I keep coming back to Valverde and Evans. Breaking them down...

EVANS: He finished 2nd last year in a non-threatening sort of way. He’s the kind of guy who just hangs around in the mountains and kills you on the time trial. Worked for Indurain. But Evans isn’t Big Mig. He’s never even won a stage. And for a great time trialist, it was the ITT which killed his chances last year. I think I’m trying to talk myself out of Evans because he’s so damn boring, but I just don’t get the feeling he has that killer instinct.

VALVERDE: While Evans has the best top lieutenant in Popovych, Valverde’s team is deeper. Perreiro is a former Tour winner (sort of) with no illusions of being the number one. Karpets is listed as a sub right now, but Arroyo is another great climber who will be in support. Valverde’s not a great time trialist, but he’s good enough to hang with Evans, and he’s a terrific climber. He’s on peak form, winning Liege-Baston-Liege and the Dauphine Libere. Things always seem to conspire against Valverde, but it’s all in place this year, especially a course that doesn’t favor the ITT. The course is enough to bump it in his favor in my eyes.

JG: Evans and Valverde are safe picks because they are the established favorites. There are good arguments to be made for either, and you made them. The Tour is no longer in the predictable days of Lance Armstrong, so I’ll go with an unconventional name. Yet, it’s a conventional theme—someone who can ride hard in the mountains day after day and do a pretty good time trial too.

1. Yaroslav Popovych
2. Alejandro Valverde
3. Carlos Sastre
4. Damiano Cunego
5. Cadel Evans

SB: I really like that pick. I wish I had thought of it.

Team review

2007-07-31T23:04:00.000-05:00

I was hoping to team up with Stephen for a joint team review, but he seems to have forsaken the internet, so I'll just post my own evaluation. As usual, each team (except Astana and Cofidis, since they didn't finish) gets classified on the 5-star scale. The tiers are cleverly named Tete de la course, Poursuivants, Peloton, Autobus, and Abandon to mimic what happens to the field on a mountain stage. The name in parentheses is the best finisher of the team.

1. Tete de la course

Discovery Channel (Contador, 1^st overall). Won yellow jersey, white jersey, team competition, 2 stages; 4 days in yellow jersey, 19 days in white jersey; two men on podium, three in top 8; 2^nd & 3^rd in KoM.

That’s an embarrassment of riches. Disco pummeled the rest of the teams.

Quick Step (Garate, 21, +38:16). Won green jersey, 4 stages; 18 days in green.
They showed up for Boonen to win green. Mission accomplished. Steegmans’ and Vasseur’s stage wins are icing on the cake. Garate had a decent finish to show that they have one rider capable of climbing.

Barloworld (Soler, 11^th, +16:51). Won KoM, 2 stages; 5 days in dots; 2^nd in green jersey, 2nd in white jersey.
Barloworld has set the standard for wild card teams. Granted, it was all the work of 2 guys, but they maximized their potential. They’ve earned another bid for 2008.

2. Poursuivants

CSC (Sastre, 4^th +7:08). Won 2 stages, 7 days in yellow, 1 day in green.
They had all sorts of problems (Zabriskie was hurt and ineffective before being eliminated; O’Grady crashed out; Cancellara laid an egg in the two long time trials), yet still managed a really good result. Great teams do well even when they struggle.

Lotto (Evans, 2 +0:23). Won 1 stage and wore green for 1 day.
Obviously, the loss of McEwen hurt their results, but Evans, finishing only 23 seconds off the lead, is the posterboy for poursuivants. Next year Lotto should put climbing domestiques on the team to support Evans. He's their future, not Robbie McEwen.

Rabobank (Boogerd, 12^th +21:15). All of their awards are tainted because of Rasmussen, however, they did win 2 stages, wear yellow 9 days, wear dots for 8 days. Since he was removed by the team without being officially disqualified, those awards are retained. Rabobank is an enigma in terms of classifying.

3. Peloton

Euskaltel (Zubeldia, 5 +8:17). Most aggressive rider (Txurruka).
I mention the most aggressive rider not because it is meaningful, but to point out that they actually did earn some prize money. Euskaltel had their best Tour in years, placing 2 riders in the top 9 overall (Zubeldia & Astarloza). Txurruka was 3^rd in the young rider competition and actually got to wear the white jersey into Paris since Contador and Soler had to wear other shirts. This was a great improvement. Next year win something, guys.

Banesto (aka Cassie d’Epargne) (Valverde, 6^th +11:37). Winnings: none. 2^nd in team standings.
Valverde was 6^th, Pereiro was 10^th, Arroyo was 13^th, and Karpets was 14^th, Gutierrez was 22^nd. That’s an awfully talented team that came away with nothing.

Telekom (Kirchen, 7 +12:18). 1 stage win, 1 day in yellow, 2 days in white.
With Rogers crashing out and Sinkewitz testing positive for steroids, this could have been a disaster. Thanks to one great day by Gerdemann and top 10 finish by Kirchen, they salvage a decent Tour.

Lampre (Valjavec, 19 +37:08). 2 stage wins
Until stage 17, it looked bad for Lampre. Napolitano was eliminated for being too slow in the mountains, and they inexplicably spent time driving the peloton on practically every stage in the first 2 weeks with nothing obvious to gain beyond face time. Then Bennati won 2 of the final 4 stages. Lots of teams would be envious of that.

Milram (Knees, 47 +1:53:23). 3^rd in points, one day in green jersey.
I’m having a hard time justifying a spot for Milram in the Peloton versus the Autobus. As a team they were horrible; they were only 18 seconds away from being dead last in team time. However, they were in contention for the second biggest price—old man Zabel was only 24 points behind Boonen. Without Zabel, they'd be in the Abandon category for sure.

Credit Agricole (Fofonov, 26^rd +56:23). 1 stage win.
They are almost as difficult to classify as Milram. They did get a stage win, but on the other hand, Hushovd was a distant 4^th in the green jersey. However, the team was much stronger—they had 3 men finish in the top 33. Respectable, superior to Milram…Peloton it is.

4. Autobus

Liquigas (Beltran, 18^th +34:14) 1 stage win.
Pozzato got the stage win, but other than that, when did you ever notice Liquigas? Beltran finished well, at 18^th overall, I only remember seeing him a couple times as soon as the mountain domestiques cracked him.

FDJ (Lovqvist, 64^th +2:22:50). 1 stage win.
Sandy Casar got the stage win and Sebastian Chavanel was 5^th in the green jersey competition. On the other hand, this team must be allergic to mountains. They were dead last in the team competition and their highest placed rider was over 2 hours out.

Saunier (Mayo, 16^th +27:09). 2 days in dots.
OK, if we remove Mayo because of his EPO test, their best rider is Jose Cobo, 20^th place +37:14. Cobo and David Millar were at least active in the race, and that keeps them out of the bottom tier.

5. Abandon

Agritubel (Nevado, 39^th +1:36:33).
I watched the whole race and had no idea that any Agritubel rider did anything noteworthy.

AG2r (Goubert, 27^th +1:06:30)
They had a terrible tour. Moreau showed one good day in the mountains and then disappeared off the face of the earth (actually, he finished 37^th). In addition to lacking a rider within an hour of the yellow jersey, they didn’t have anyone in the top 10 for any other jersey.

Gerolsteiner (Kohl, 31^st +1:13:27).
There were a couple times that the cameras caught Kohl & Fothen getting dropped just as the peloton reached the mountains. That’s pretty crummy as an accomplishment.

Bogus Telekom (Florencio, 46^th +1:52:19).
Laurent Lefevre gets a pat on the back for his effort, but I’ve run out of good things to say about the team.

TdF All Star Team (version 2)

2007-07-30T17:46:00.000-05:00

Usually when I pick my TdF All-Star team I use this formula: 2 GC riders, 2 climbers, 2 sprinters, 1 time trial specialist, and 2 domestiques. There is usually a little problem with the GC riders in that they are also the best climbers and/or time trialists. I’m going to deviate from the mold slightly. Also, the expulsions in the 2007 Tour have thrown in a wrinkle. OK, the departure of Cofidis had no effect on any awards. Astana was headed for glory before they were shown the door, as was Rasmussen. Excluding Astana makes sense since they weren’t around for half the race. I’m going to look over Rasmussen, but I won’t argue (much) with Stephen if he includes him.

Enough talk…here is the vaunted list of venerable TdF studs.

Bert Contador, Cadel Evans, and Levi Leipheimer are no-brainers. Part of the reason I’m not classifying these guys by position is that I can’t say Leipheimer was the better time trialist or that Evans was the better climber. They were both awesome at both. Just look at it this way—these 3 were separated by 31 seconds and the 4^th place man was 7 minutes behind. They were separated only slightly among themselves, but by a huge margin vs. the rest of the field.

Tom Boonen and Robbie Hunter are my sprinters, which is also pretty obvious. Boonen was the best sprinter by a lot. Although Zabel was very close to Hunter on points, Hunter got a stage win, so that’s the difference.

Mauricio Soler fits the profile of the pure climber and gets a spot on the All-Star team. Winning the KoM isn’t an automatic ticket, but this guy earned it. He didn’t disappear on the final climb or on the day after a big ride like some other phony climbers who have won this jersey in the past. He would have won even if Rasmussen had remained in the race.

Domestiques: Yaroslav Popovych was the best domestique in the race. His pacesetting separated the elite from the pretenders, and he did it repeatedly. Instead of punching out, he held on for a high finish day after day to propel Discovery in the team competition. Perhaps his key moment was in the Alps when, seemingly spent after a long breakaway, he was caught by Contador and then pointed to his back wheel. He paced Contador as he rode away from…Evans and Leipheimer, et al. Michael Boogerd earned a spot on the All-Star team in his service to Rasmussen. Setting the pace in the mountains was supposed to be his job, but he essentially pulled a double shift since Denis Menchov was worthless. My last spot goes to Gert Steegmans. Gert accidentally won Stage 2 as he lead out Boonen. Beyond that, Steegmans was ALWAYS Boonen’s number one man in the lead out. I was tempted to put Fabian Cancellara on the team because his first week was so great, but he doesn’t make the cut because his time trial in Albi was terrible. He finished 107^th in Albi and only 12^th in the final time trial.

Other awards:

Best moment: Like I said before, the 15-20 minutes in the final time trial between Leipheimer’s second time check and the time Contador crossed the finish line was riveting. The Tour was up in the air for the top 3 guys. At every moment I wondered if Leipheimer could maintain his pace (he did), if Evans was losing too much (he didn’t), or if Contador was getting faster at the end (he was).

Worst moment: One week ago I was sure it was Vino’s blood doping, but we sunk to a new low with the expulsion of Rasmussen. On the day he practically clinched the victory he got yanked for violating team rules. He’s never tested positive for dope, and the only public evidence against him is heresy. Oddly, the Tour and the doping police beat themselves up, saying they were failures. Maybe that was to obscure the fact that they had been railroading Rasmussen since the Tour started.

Iron man award: None. Nobody endured an extraordinary injury. Well, it could have been Vinokourov, but, you know. However, I will salute Stuart O’Grady, who, after crashing out with 5 broken ribs, a broken collar bone, and broken vertebrae, said, “Sign me up for the Vuelta.”

Best Surprise: Well, clearly Contador is, and then Soler. To avoid repetition, I’ll mention Linus Gerdemann. He got a stage win and wore the yellow jersey for a day. Surprisingly, he rode a good final time trial, so he’s got the endurance to make it through 3 weeks of Tour. As far as the most surprising team: obviously Barloworld.

Most disappointing:
Individual—Chris Moreau. He was a no-show. He couldn’t even muster a couple good days, much less a good tour.
Team—Banesto had 4 men in the top 15, so it’s not right to call them disappointing, but they did it anonymously. Really, I only remember seeing them as they were getting dropped by all the riders who were trying to make things happen. These guys were super talented, but it looked like they were watching the race.

Best tactical move: Discovery placed Popovych in the breakaway on Stage 9, setting up Contador. The worst tactical move was Michal Rogers’ decision to go on a long breakaway on the first mountain stage. The gutsiest move was Carlos Sastre’s desperate all day attack on stage 16. It didn’t work in terms of getting on the podium, but it did help him hold off Valverde, Popovych, and Kirchen (hence, I praise him and criticize Rogers).

Steve's All-Star Team

2007-07-30T10:46:00.001-05:00

The team rundown and Jason's awards are coming, but here is my All-Star team of this year's Tour:

GC: Alberto Contador, DSC
GC: Cadel Evans, LOT

Really, who else? These were the two strongest riders on the Tour and they battled back and forth throughout. You can't say enough good things about either of them.

Time Trialist: Levi Leipheimer, DSC
Time Trialist: Fabian Cancellara, CSC

OK, Evans probably deserves to be in this group but I've already put him up in the GC. Leipheimer put forth one of the all-time great time trials in Stage 19, and almost stole this race from everybody. Cancellara gets a mention for winning the prologue and making the first week special. Seems like ages ago.

Climber: Juan Soler, BAR

Even if Rasmussen had not been ejected from the race, Soler still would have won the polka dot jersey. There is absolutely no taint on his win. He was the biggest pleasant surprise of this Tour. We both dismissed Barloworld, and they were real players.

Sprinter: Tom Boonen, QSP
Sprinter: Erik Zabel, MIL

Boonen fianlly gets his green jersey, and he did it with relative ease. He had comfortable lead throughout and just never let anyone off the mat. And can you believe Zabel is still a competitive sprinter? He didn't actually win anything, but he was in on everything, and that was pretty amazing.

Domestique: Yaroslav Popovych, DSC
Domestique: Micheal Boogerd, RAB
Domestique: Andreas Kloden, AST

Popovych is obvious. He was a beast for three weeks. The other two are here for doing the heavy lifting for a guy who was kicked out of the Tour. I don't think this minimizes or diminishes their efforts. Boogerd was the most outspoken in his bitterness towards his team captain, but he decided to ride into Paris and take his 11th place finish. He's not usually a great climber, but he did a great job sticking around on the big stages.

Kloden is now the most unfortunate figure in cycling. He gave up his goal of winning the Tour to help Vino win. It took the team a few days to figure out that Vino didn't have it this year and decide to ride for Kloden, but not after Kloden sacrificed time to help out Vino. And then, when Astana finally decides to ride for Kloden, the whole team gets booted for Vino's positive test. No rider sacrificed more for his captain than Kloden. He might have even given up a yellow jersey.

Stage 20 Thoughts

2007-07-29T09:56:00.001-05:00

I'm watching the final stage hit the Champs d'Elyses right now. Discovery is leading their man, Alberto Contador, and breathing a huge sigh of relief.

Neither of us wrote about yesterday's time trial, which may be the greatest time trial ever. Leipheimer had the ride of his life, and at the end of the day, the top three riders were separated by 31 seconds. Leipheimer missed out on making this a one-two Disco finish by the length of a 10 second penalty in the early days of the Tour.

That's when it struck me that this has been both the best and the worst Tour ever. The doping scandals are out of control, and it is all anyone can talk about. Vino's B-sample just came up positive, yet another reminder of the Tour we have had. On the other hand, this has been the most exciting racing I can ever remember. This was a wide open race almost the whole way through, and the last day came down to a terrific battle on the ITT. The climbing stages were equally as exciting as the biggest contender seemed to change on an almost daily basis.

It's a shame that this Tour will be remembered as the Doping Tour because the race itself was great. Vive la Tour!

Stage 17: It Doesn't Feel Right

2007-07-26T11:17:00.001-05:00

In 1998, the peloton staged a protest over blood doping. They were protesting the gross violation of riders’ rights by French authorities. By 2007, they staged a protest against the dopers, or more accurately, themselves. Nine years later, the peloton has capitulated. No one gives a damn about their rights in the pursuit of blood purity.

I feel like I’m the only who is alarmed by Rasmussen getting booted from the Tour despite not flunking a drug test nor breaking any UCI rules. The Tour says they didn’t pressure Rabobank, but considering the theme of the last week has been the “joyless Tour” for the team, this is either naivety or a blatant lie by Tour officials. Given our past experience, I’d go with the second option. Rasmussen is getting punished based on nothing more than accusation and innuendo. I found the quotes to be rather disturbing, yet revealing:

"We would have made the Rabobank team face up to their responsibilities."

"My immediate reaction is, why didn't they do this at the end of June, when they had the same information. The team decided to pull him out - that's their prerogative. I can only applaud that. It's a zero-tolerance policy and it's a lesson for the future." – UCI chief Pat McQuaid

"Michael Rasmussen should not have started the Tour. Why? In a period of crisis, a champion has to be an example. In addition, his attitude, which we only know now, makes us believe that we should have refused his participation." -- Patrice Clerc, Tour official.

"We cannot say that Rasmussen cheated, but his flippancy and his lies on his whereabouts had become unbearable." -- Tour director Christian Prudhomme

Let’s break that down. The UCI chief pretty explicitly states there was pressure on Rabobank. And based on the same information, it was okay for him to start the Tour, but not finish.

The Tour officials are worse. They are suspending Rasmussen for flippancy? He shouldn’t have started the Tour because he doesn’t set a good enough of an example? Are you kidding me? They have no solid evidence against Rasmussen, but let’s just ruin his career anyway. They may be right, they may be wrong. But who cares about the rider’s rights?

Let’s be clear: Rasmussen broke no rules. None. Zero. Zip. Zilch. Nada. Nothing. And he’s getting booted from the Tour, having his name drug through the mud, and all in the name of cleaning up the sport. A pox on the Tour and the UCI. This isn’t about doping, this about bullying riders so they know their place.

The “cleanest” teams are the French teams, and even they had a rider booted. Moreni has at least admitted to wrongdoing. But it makes me fairly convinced a lot of this motivation is not to clean up the sport, which they are slowly destroying through their strong-arm tactics, but is partly motivated by the French’s desire to erase the memory of their losses over the past two decades. Oh, the only reason the French weren’t winning was because everyone else was cheating. We were robbed of our glory, and if we can only expunge the record of the last 20 years, we will be dominant again.

Look, there’s more evidence against Barry Bonds than there is against Michael Rasmussen. This is like the Giants kicking Bonds off the team. While I do think Bonds probably used steroids, I’m also a pretty big fan of due process. The riders get absolutely none. They are bullied and owed, and then ultimately ruined by the UCI which leads the persecution.

Let’s be clear, cycling’s doping problem is no worse than any other sport’s. Operation Peurto implicated over a hundred athletes, but only the cyclists got named. Only the cyclists had their careers ruined. This march to clean up cycling and save it from dopers has convinced me that there is nothing an athlete can ever do to clear his or her name from a doping allegation. Rasmussen’s case, an accusation is enough. Cycling has the perception as a dirty sport because it’s the only sport getting tough on the athletes. Has it cleaned up the sport? No. It’s just lead to an era of accusation and extreme collateral damage. What did Kloden do to deserve his Tour getting ruined? Or every rider on Cofidis?

I don’t have the answer to the doping problem in sports, but the cycling’s current answer to it is obviously wrong. Rasmussen didn’t ruin the Tour, the anti-doping zealots did.

Oh yeah, Bettini won an exciting stage today. Screw you, UCI.

That sort of takes the punch out of it

2007-07-25T18:28:00.000-05:00

When I left for work in the morning the race was still about 40 km from the finish, so I made a great effort to avoid seeing the results online so that I could watch the replay and pretend it was live. Then, as Leipheimer and Contador sandwiched Rasmussen at about the 3km marker, Vs. flashed the news that Rasmussen had been withdrawn by Rabobank and fired.

So, I guess I can't dwell on what a great job Rasmussen did to defend his race lead, because up until that moment, I was really impressed.

But I'm not going to fail to mention the great efforts of athletes who have not been kicked out of the race.

1) Levi Leipheimer has now had his best two TdF stages in the same week. He was outstanding. I hope he gets the official credit for the stage win, because he's such a good rider having a great tour. Plus, he was a team player for Contador, who just didn't have the same explosion today as he did Monday.
2) Carlos Sastre went on a suicide mission. Naturally it didn't work, but he still finished 8th on the stage, just over 2 minutes behind. It's hard to keep a good pace once the breakaway has been snuffed out, but he was great.
3) Same thing for Soler, who did enough to overtake Rasmussen in the KoM points. With Rasmussen out, Soler is going to win the KoM, unless he gets disqualified.

As for Rasmussen, what we know now is that his own team pulled him from the race, saying that he lied to them about his whereabouts in June.

Huh?

I cannot believe that is all of the story. If Rabobank is willing to sacrifice their only yellow jersey ever because they are all about the letter of the law, well, then good for them. Let everyone know that the Dutch really are hard core disciplinarians. There has got to be more to this than lying about where he was training in June.

The race directors are quite pleased, but then, they've been railroading Rasmussen for weeks now. Of course, they'll be really upset when they realize that the credibility of the Tour has sunk to a new low.

As for the race...
1) Contador
2) Evans +1:53
3) Leipheimer +2:49
4) Sastre + 6:02

Evans has a fair shot at catching Contador in the time trial (he was 91 seconds better in the first TT). Leipheimer isn't likely to catch Evans unless Evans falls off his bike a couple times, but his podium spot looks secure. Of course, all of this is contingent on the dope tests of the coming days.

At least we have something to talk about on the rest day

2007-07-24T16:41:00.000-05:00

In case you didn't already hear, Vinokourov tested positive for blood doping following his win in the time trial. The entire team Astana has withdrawn from the Tour. Naturally, Vinokourov denies that he cheated, and we're awaiting the B sample. Actually, I think he should not be expelled until after the B sample is tested, but the doping authorities don't do things my way. The testing procedure for this is something I'm familiar with, so I do have confidence in this sort of analysis.

Additionally, I must say that this is the dumbest form of doping. It's called homologus blood doping, but that's a misnomer. It's a blood transfusion from another person, and it's only homologus in the sense that the donor matches the recipient's ABO blood type. The problem is that there are lots of serotypes in addition to ABO, which is how the transfusion can be detected. It's the same sort of thing that Tyler Hamilton was caught doing a few years ago.

I say this is the dumbest form of doping because of the health risk. Blood transfusions are for vital medical procedures. Accepting another person's blood runs the risk of contracting infection and also of inducing illness due to immunological incompatibility. Athletes who do this are not only cheaters, they are stupid too.

Anyone else care to be dumb?
How about race director, Chris Prudhomme, quoted in an AP story?

Race director Christian Prudhomme said the case showed that cycling's drug-testing system doesn't work.

"It's an absolute failure of the system," he said. "It is a system which does not defend the biggest race in the world. This is a system which can't last."

Huh? If Prudhomme doesn't trust the lab tests, then this makes sense. If he does trust the results, then he should be extolling the testing system for catching a cheater. Maybe he is referring to the declaration not to cheat that the Tour forced all competitors to sign before the race. Well, if that's the "system" he means, then it is a failure, but everyone with half a brain knew that signing a paper would not end doping. It seems pretty clear to me: if your testing system accurately catches cheaters, it works and you defend the integrity of your event. If you fail to catch them, fail to act, or incorrectly condemn athletes, then you hurt the integrity of your event. Is Prudhomme every bit the clod that Jean Marie LeBlanc was? Maybe the AP writer wrongly attributed Prudhomme's comments to the testing system when, in fact he was referring to the UCI's pressure on riders not to cheat. So, maybe the AP writer is the moron here.

Oh, this helps Discovery immensely in the team competition. I feel bad for Kloden.

Tomorrow try to concentrate on Rasmussen vs. Contador.

Stage 15: Vino Again

2007-07-23T11:30:00.000-05:00

The attack came late, but it came. Let's face it, the top two riders in the GC are not exactly time trialing whizzes, so both Contador and Rasmussen had the incentive to attack on the Pyrenees, even though they are technically the hunted. Contador didn't make his acceleration until the climb was almost over, but he made the move and only Rasmussen could respond. And the top two put another minute into the field.

With one more climbing stage after the rest day and then a time trial, it looks like our podium is almost set: Rasmussen, Contador, and Evans. Probably in that order. Contador might be a better climber than anyone, even Rasmussen, but he's not likely to make up 2:23 on the climbs. And his time trialing skill is only slightly better than Rasmussen's. It's a tall order and he really needs Rasmussen to make a mistake, something he has not been doing. Rasmussen responded to Contador's every move.

Evans, on the other hand, needed to minimize his losses in the mountains and then blow Rasmussen away on the ITT. He's lost 3 minutes in two days, and will probably lose another minute or so on Wednesday. He needs a Vino-esque ITT as well as both Rasmussen and Contador to collapse. It's not an impossible dream, but he is clutching at straws.

Vino, for a guy having a lousy Tour, is racking up the stage victories. He dominated the ITT, absolutely annihilating the field. And now he picked up another stage win, beating the field by a huge margin again. He is having the ultimate Jekyll and Hyde Tour. He goes back and forth between the best rider on earth and terrible. If only he hadn't crashed...

Oh, David Millar is claiming Rasmussen has ruined this year's Tour because he missed a drug test, which violated exactly zero rules. I'd like to tell Millar, a guy who actually has flunked drug tests, to shut the fuck up.

Rasmussen holds, Disco flexes

2007-07-22T13:10:00.000-05:00

Stage 14 did not disappoint in terms of having a great race.

It was Vinokourov, not Rasmussen who could not recover from the previous day's time trial. Vino blew up on the penultimate climb and finished almost 30 minutes behind the stage winner. Rasmussen finished a bike length behind the stage winner.

Kloden and Evans cracked on Plateau de Beille, and each dropped in the standings. While Alberto Contador and Rasmussen matched each other attack for attack, Soler, Leipheimer, and Sastre were just a few seconds behind them.

Stage results:
1. Alberto Contador (Disco)
2. Michael Rasmussen (Rabobank) s.t.
3. Juan Mauricio Soler (Barloworld) +0:37
4. Levi Leipheimer (Disco) +0:40
5. Carlos Sastre (CSC) +0:53
6. Andréas Klöden (Astana) +1:52
7. Cadel Evans (Lotto) +1:52
8. Antonio Colom (Astana) +2:23
9. Andrey Kashechkin (Astana) +2:23
10. Yaroslav Popovych (Disco) +3:06

Popovych was a superdomestique again. The guy was dropped on the first climb, but rode back to the yellow jersey group. On the final climb he set the pace that dropped Kloden, Kashechkin, and Rasmussen's teammates. After he stepped aside for Contador and Leipheimer to attack, he kept a good pace to finish fast enough to give his team the lead over Astana in the team competition. Popovych was superb. Today Discovery showed the same sort of dominance that they had in the Armstrong years.

The standings also show how deep Astana is. With Vinokourov out of it, they still had three men in the top 9. Kloden and Kashechkin are still in the top 10 overall, and the team is only 2 minutes behind Discovery.

Blah, blah, blah. No one can drop Rasmussen in the mountains, and today his lead is greater than yesterday.

Overall standings:
1. Michael Rasmussen (Rabobank)
2. Alberto Contador (Disco) +2:23
3. Cadel Evans (Lotto) +3:04
4. Levi Leipheimer (Disco) +4:29
5. Andreas Kloden (Astana) +4:38
6. Carlos Sastre (CSC) +5:50
7. Andrey Kashechkin (Astana) +6:58
8. Mikel Astarloza (Euskaltel) +8:25
9. Alejandro Valverde (Banesto) +9:45
10. Yaroslav Popovych (Disco) +10:55

At this point Rasmussen has a comfortable advantage on everyone but Contador and Evans. That could change if he cracks or if someone goes wild and steals a lot of time on one climb. But what Rasmussen needs to do is build margin for error in the Pyrenees. Today he did that on everyone except Contador.

Finally, in one of the more amusing Tour tidbits involving two guys we love to mock, the Saunier team drove the peloton up the penultimate climb of the day. In fact, David Millar's pacework knocked Vinokourov out of the peloton and gave Popovych problems. It was, apparently, an effort to support an attack by Iban Mayo. Or perhaps no one told him. Mayo was a non-factor and finished almost 10 minutes behind Contador. Doh!

Kill them all and let God sort them out.

2007-07-21T14:24:00.000-05:00

I confess I was going to use that title regardless of the outcome of Stage 13, set in the city of Albi, as a reference to the papal suppression of the Albigensian heresy in the 13th century.

Today the slaughter was perpetrated by our old pal Al Vinokourov, who apparently, is not quite dead. But team Astana also slaughtered the field, taking 3 of the top 4 places.

Whereas most of the cyclists were cautious to avoid falling on the wet roads (Kloden, Kashechkin, Popovych, Gusev, and Cancellara did fall), Vino was aggressive all over the course and seemed immune to the conditions. Obviously, he took his frustrations of the last several days out on his competitors.

Michael Rasmussen had the best time trial of his life and managed to hold on to the yellow jersey, albeit now by only 1 minute over Cadel Evans.

Speaking of Evans, he had an awesome ride and it was well-planned, as he got faster at each time check. To a lesser degree, so did Levi Leipheimer, who rose from 21st at the first time check to 9th at the finish. But Leipheimer wasn't even the best on his team--Popovych and Contador each beat him by 20 seconds. This trio from Discovery Channel really had an excellent day, but Astana outclassed everyone.

Casualties? As expected Iban Mayo still sucks at the time trial (+6:04). Valverde (+6:08) and Moreau (+9:26) were unexpectedly crappy. Their chances for yellow are shot.

Overall standings after stage 13:
Rasmussen (Rabobank)
Evans (Lotto) +1:00
Contador (Disco) +2:31
Kloden (Astana) +2:34
Leipheimer (Disco) +3:37
Kashechkin (Astana) +4:23
Sastre (CSC) +4:45
Astarloza (Euskaltel) +5:07
Vinokourov (Astana) +5:10

Draw a line after the top 4. Those guys are the top tier contenders. All can climb, and all have done well in the time trial. Leipheimer is just behind them. He hasn't been as strong, but can challenge them if he has a great day or if they falter. The problem for him is that he does not have the impetus to attack. Kashechkin, Sastre, and Astarloza are second class contenders. And then we have the wild card, Vinokourov. He's still over 5 minutes back, which is a long way. Even if you assume Rasmussen's good TT was a fluke, he's still 4:10 behind Evans and over 2.5 minutes behind Kloden. However, his win today shows he still has fight, and he still has the ability to make up time. He can't make up the gap in one day, but he can get within striking range with one great day in the mountains. He'll have his chance in the next 3 stages. I figure for Vino to have a shot at winning, at the start of the final time trial he needs to be within 90 seconds of Evans and Kloden, within 3 minutes of the rest.

Rasmussen has weathered the first storm and is now back on his own turf for 3 stages. However, after the TT, he looked spent. He was wobbly and coughing up on the podium. I think he hurt himself today. How well can he recover? Another thing about him is that in previous years he has been able to rest in between mountain stages, but this year he's had to defend the lead all week instead of holding reserve to recover. That may take a little spark out of him in the Pyrenees. I'm being to critical, though. Rasmussen picked the right day to have the best TT of his life.

Stage 14 is a monster, with a finish on Plateau de Beille. The other 3 times a TdF stage ended there the winner of the stage won the Tour. Don't miss stage 14!

Here's a preview from Vinokourov, "What I can say now is that I will attack."

Well, that is what he does best.
Aside from Vino, be very afraid of Contador in the Pyrenees.

Odds & ends on the eve of the race of truth

2007-07-20T19:04:00.000-05:00

I know all 7 of our regular readers have missed my commentary over the last couple days. Fortunately, my eye surgery went fine and I can watch the Tour again.

Tomorrow is the big showdown, as we finally have a time trial to shake up the favorites. I'm curious to see how well Valverde does. I don't think he's as weak as some of the other Spaniards are (e.g. Sastre, Mancebo, Mayo), but I also don't think he's of the same class as Kloden, Vinokourov, Leipheimer, or Evans.

In the last two days Boonen suffered a goose egg on one sprint, but fortunately for him, so did Zabel. Hunter took the points at the line, getting him back in the thick of things for the green jersey race. On the next day, Boonen struck back to pad his lead. He still has some room for error, but now he has two guys within reasonable striking range rather than just one.

Also, we may have an interesting race in the KoM for the first time in...in...well, I can't remember when. I don't know why Rasmussen didn't make an effort on the cat 2 climb on stage 12, but Soler and Popovych both did, so now they are within striking distance of Rasmussen to be King of the Mountains.

On stage 11 David Zabriskie was eliminated for being too slow. This is a huge loss for CSC. He's a threat to win the time trial, and they need him for the team competition. CSC actually took the lead over Banesto and Disco a few days ago, but CSC is now at a disadvantage because of attrition. Their 5 minute lead suddenly seems a lot smaller.

Stage 11: Who Needs A Team?

2007-07-19T12:00:00.000-05:00

Today's lesson is the importance of a quality team.

Astana took advantage of the cross-winds and split the field. Their team is still one of the strongest in the field. They saw a weakness in the peloton and they exploited it.

Ag2r is not a strong team. So when that field split in two, they could not protect Moreau. Moreau has already been having a bad day, having had a minor crash and suffering some road burn. He spent the day in the back of the peloton, and he just couldn't react to the split. And his team was not strong enough to pull it back. And Moreau is probably done.

Then, sometimes a strong team doesn't matter. Quickstep is a pretty strong team on the sprints, and they led the peloton in the final few km, reeling in every break. And then they took a wide turn in the last kilometer and Boonen ends up crashing into a barrier. And it let Hunter back into the points race.

No one is going to confuse Barloworld with Team CSC, but they have done a good impression. Robbie Hunter took advantage of the crash and picked up 25 points on Boonen in the green jersey race, making himself a real contender. It's also the team's second stage win. And look where they are in the classifications:

Soler is 17th in the GC
Hunter is 2nd in points classification
Soler is 2nd in climbing classification
Soler is 3rd in the youth classification
Siutsou is 4th in the youth classification
OK, the team sits 16th in the team classification, but still...

Maybe you don't need to be a strong team to have a good Tour.

Stage 10: Jens Lets Us Down... Not Really

2007-07-18T11:12:00.000-05:00

We make no secret of our man-crush on Jens Voigt. So, I'm a little bit ticked that Voigt didn't win that final sprint, and instead some stupid French guy took home the stage win (actually, Cedric Vasseur). Vasseur steals the glory which is rightfully Voigt's? Bastard!

I'm hoping when they crossed the line, after everyone rode Voigt's wheel for the last 2 km pretty much killing any chance he had of winning, Voigt turned to Vasseur and said something like this:

"Congratulations! Winning a stage in the Tour de France is almost as cool as wearing the yellow jersey! Oh, what? You've never done that? You really should. It's way cool. I mean, I've only worn it twice, but both times were really special.

Punk.

Don't ever ride my wheel like that again or I will gut you like a fish."

Some assorted Jens Voigt facts, which you may or may not know:

- When he rides, he hypes himself up by yelling "I'm freaking Jens Voigt!" Seriously.
- His bike doesn't move forward. He just pedals so hard, he stays in one place and the earth revolves underneath him. OK, I made that up. It just seems true.
- This is how big of a badass Voigt is: In 2004, he pulled up and let Ullrich pass him so he could let his captain Basso catch up. Then, he proceeded to catch Ullrich with Basso in tow. You do not fuck with Jens Voigt.
- He was taught to speak English by Australians. So he uses Australian slang. That makes him ten times cooler.
- He is the riders' representative on the UCI Council. So he's a badass off the course as well.

We love Voigt. I'm ticked he didn't win today's stage, but knowing Voigt... there's always tomorrow. Like he's ever going to stop attacking.

I pretend for a moment that I am a team manager

2007-07-17T22:14:00.000-05:00

I'm going to usurp the role of team manager for several (but not all) teams in the Tour. Here's what I'd be saying at the team meeting.

AG2r

Chris Moreau is riding well and is in the yellow jersey hunt. A top 5 finish is possible, with luck, we’re looking at a podium finish. Moreau has shown the impetus to attack and the resilience to withstand attacks. Concurrently, Plan B is to send our other guys into breakaways to see if we can steal a stage win. No one is strong enough to help Moreau, so it’s no loss to him if we roll the dice on that.

CSC

Carlos Sastre has a fighting chance for the yellow jersey, but since he’s weak in the time trial, we’ve got to attack in the Pyrenees. Thanks to Cancellara our Tour is already a success, so let’s invest everything into Sastre. We’re only 5 minutes behind in the team competition, so the more we help Sastre, the better our chances. Zabriskie, if you goof off in every stage but avoid getting eliminated, that’s cool, so long as you bring your A-game for the time trial.

Also, we need a volunteer to ride a rusty mountain bike with training wheels through a mine field in Afghanistan. Any takers? I knew I could count on you, Jens.

Banesto

We’re in a great position. Valverde was super in the Alps, and he’s clearly our leader. Pereiro, Arroyo, and Karpets, you guys have been going strong too, which is why we’re in the lead on team time. Disco is only 6 seconds behind us, though, and they are a better at the time trial, so we’ve got to attack in the Pyrenees. This is our race to win. If you three set a fast tempo on the mountains, Valverde can bury those chumps and take the yellow jersey.

Telekom

There’s no way to sugar coat it—the last two stages were a disaster. If the Tour ended today, we could hold our heads up high thanks to Linus Gerdemann’s stage win, plus a day in yellow and two days in white. Now, he’s second in the white jersey, but he can’t climb with Contador. Just keep riding your own pace and hope he crashes. Somehow Kim Kirchen is in 10^th. You stay with the lead pack as long as you can, but we simply don’t have the personnel to attack. Just make sure all 6 of you get to Paris, and try to go an entire day without hitting another rider, a spectator, or an animal.

Rabobank

Menchov blew up today, so that makes things simple. We’re in this to get Rasmussen to Paris in yellow. Don’t think about the KoM—that will take care of itself. Everyone works to protect our yellow jersey. The time trial is a liability, so we have to attack at least 2 of the 3 days in the Pyrenees to hold a good lead. We’re going to push the tempo to weaken the field and then launch Rasmussen to attack at will.

Lotto

Cadel, you were a stud in the Alps. You attacked well, and you’re a better time trialist than everyone ahead of you. Rasmussen is keeping that yellow jersey warm for you. We’re really not equipped to defend the jersey, so it would be ideal if you got close in the first time trial, and then didn’t take it until maybe the last mountain stage or the second time trial. With McEwen out, we’ve only got one goal—getting that chickenlegged posuer out of the jersey that rightfully belongs to you.

Discovery

We have options out the wazoo. We’ve got two guys in contention for the yellow jersey, one of whom currently wears white with 3+ minutes to spare. Plus, we’re only 6 seconds off the lead in the team competition. Contador and Levi, keep doing what you are doing, and next week we’ll decide which one of you can win the yellow jersey. Popo is our secret weapon because he’s about the only domestique in the race who can ride ahead of the peloton all day and still be strong enough to be of use on the final climb. Let’s save Hincapie’s legs for the time trials—that’s where we’re going to win the team competition. We’ll beat Cassie d’Espana—or whatever Banesto calls themselves these days—into the pavement.

Quick Step

Boonen for green. Everyone got that? On the sprint stages we mark Zabel, Hushovd, and Hunter. We protect Tom from a crash. On the mountain stages we send everyone back to pace Tom to the finish line. We’re not going to let him get eliminated like McEwen. Let’s take that green jersey all the way to Paris.

Milram

Really, this couldn’t be better for us. McEwen and Freire are gone, and we have a good lead on Hushovd. The only problem is that Boonen has a 13 point lead on Zabel. In a head to head race, Boonen wins, so we’ve got to out-maneuver him in the bunch sprints. Erik’s main advantage is that he can climb. So, on the mountain stages, we’re going to look to take those intermediate sprint points that lie in between big climbs.

Saunier

Mayo is in third, which is as good as we could have hoped at this point. We’ve got nothing else going for us—yes, I know who you are David Millar, and I’m not about to hold my breath on you delivering a stage win, so shut up for a minute here. OK, fine, you think you have a chance in the time trial…whatever. The important thing is that Mayo has a chance for the podium. We’re headed to the Pyrenees—his backyard. When you see incline, you attack, got it.

Barloworld

Our tour is already a success after that stage win. Soler is less than 4 minutes behind Contador in the white jersey race, so let’s concentrate on that. On the sprints, let’s set up Hunter and see if he can get us another stage win. He’s been close before—so let’s get a second helping of podium girls.

Astana

Vinokourov, your whole career is cursed. I know it sucks, but someday, you’ll retire as one of the best TdF riders never to wear yellow. We still have plenty to fight for. Kloden is in good position for the yellow jersey, and he’s probably the best time trial rider of all the contenders. Kloden is now our #1 guy, and he’s going to win the Tour. We’re only 3 minutes out of the lead in the team competition, and that’s despite all of Vinokourov’s problems. We’re going to win that too, because when it comes to time trials, those other guys can’t hold your jocks. So, we’re riding for Kloden. As a booby prize, we’ll let Vino go solo for a stage win in the Pyrenees if the conditions are good.

Stage 9: A Crack At The Top

2007-07-17T12:46:00.000-05:00

Barloworld earned their bid today. Actually, Barloworld had already earned their bid by being pretty competitive throughout the first week, and even having Robbie Hunter in green jersey contention. But today was the breakthrough day, as Juan Mauricio Soler held off the field and won Stage 9. That's a big deal.

An even bigger deal is that some GC contenders finally cracked today. Vino, Schleck, Zubeldia, Kashechin, Pereiro, and Menchov are stick-a-fork-in-them done. Vino et al each lost three minutes, while Menchov lost four. With this many GC contenders still in the hunt, that's just too many riders to overcome. We don't even have to wait for the time trial to sort CSC, Rabobank, and Astana out. The Alps did it for us. Sastre, Rasmussen, and Kloden (respectively) are now The Man on their teams.

Look at the top nine, the winner of this year's Tour is likely coming from this group:

1. RASMUSSEN Michael (RAB) ---
2. VALVERDE Alejandro (BAN) +2:35
3. MAYO Iban (SDV) +2:39
4. EVANS Cadel (LOT) +2:41
5. CONTADOR Alberto (DSC) +3:08
6. MOREAU Christophe (A2R) +3:18
7. SASTRE Carlos (CSC) +3:39
8. KLÖDEN Andréas (AST) +3:50
9. LEIPHEIMER Levi (DSC) +3:53

The real question is: how bad of a time trialist is Rasmussen? No one is going to confuse him with the Big Mig, but he does have an awfully big lead. There are still two ITT's left, as well as some big climbs. Do the negatives outweigh the positives? Can a climber win this thing? I'm skeptical, but he can make up for his predicted ITT losses in the Pyrenees.

Also, let's give some credit to Discovery, which ran this stage like the old Posties. They sent out an early break, cracked the field, and had their GC contenders reel everyone in on the chase up the final climb. Leipheimer didn't rise to the final chase, Contador did, and his teammate tried to carry him to the line. It was like watching the tactics of Lance without the power of Lance to just blow everyone off the course. But it did put two guys in the top ten. Contador looks like a budding star. This might not be his moment, but he looks stronger than Leipheimer right now.

Oh, on a final note. How bad T-Mobile's Tour is going summed up in one picture (courtesy of Velonews):

That's Marcus Burghardt crashing into a stray dog. I don't even know what to say about that.

Stage 8: These Are Some Bad Men

2007-07-15T17:07:00.000-05:00

The first real day of big movers and shakers, so there’s a lot to talk about. I’m going to dispense with the recap: Rasmussen won by a lot. Vino cracked, but not that bad. Rasmussen has a lot of new laundry. OK, onto the analysis. And Jason's right, he left a lot for me to talk about.

RASMUSSEN
We used to constantly bitch about KoM points and their distribution, but Rasmussen has sort of made that argument moot. He really is the best climber, he wins by large margins, and he gets the dots. Is the system still flawed? Yes. But at least the right guy is winning it, so who cares that much?

He’s in yellow right now, but the chances of Rasmussen actually winning the Tour de France are quite low. He’s a notoriously poor time trialist, so for him to have any shot, he’d have to build an absurd lead in the mountains. I don’t see how anyone lets him do that. I think it’s great he’s in yellow and I would love to see climber win the whole race, but let’s be honest. He’s a longshot. Though he does have better odds than Linus Gerdemann.

AUSTRALIA
It wasn’t supposed to go like this. Rogers made a bold move early in the stage. What does he get for his trouble? A crash on the descent which forced him to withdraw. I hate when a guy gets punished for being aggressive. Rogers made a decisive move to put his stamp on this race, and bad luck thwarted him. T-Mobile’s great hope went up in smoke. (Though Jason is right, the move was still stupid. I don't care. There's no need to kick a country while they are down)

Australia’s day got worse when Stuart O’Grady would crash on the same descent as Rogers. Rogers would hang on for a little bit longer, so O’Grady officially pulld out first. Of course, O’Grady had five broken ribs so we can let that slide. This is a guy who finished last year’s race with a broken back, so no one doubts his toughness.

Finally, Robbie McEwen is out of the race. He didn’t crash, but he finished outside the time limit, so his green jersey defense is over. It looked doomed anyway, as he has not been the same rider since his crash. Yet another contender drops out for the sprinter’s title, so Boonen had a good day just by finishing.

Australia's hopes are now entirely on Cadel Evans.

MOREAU
Over the years, I’ve taken my fair share of potshots at Moreau. Hell, I’ve probably taken several other people’s fair share of potshots as well. So this is gonna hurt me when I say this:

Moreau had one hell of a ride today.

Rasmussen won the combative rider award for the stage, but I can make a case for Moreau. He was the one who finally attacked from the peloton to lead the chase. He led that chase group almost the entire time as every rider seemed to stalk him, so Moreau did what appeared to be his only option: he constantly attacked the group. He spent the entire final climb trying to crack a pretty loaded group of Mayo, Valverde, Schleck, Evans, Kashechkin, and Contador. All of those riders were within 30 seconds of each other in the GC, but all marked Moreau as the threat.

Quite a dubious honor. Contador lost the group due to a mechanical problem (a theme for Discovery today – so did Leipheimer) and Mayo would successfully attack in the last km, but the group finished mostly together. These were the GC contenders who rose to the challenge. They didn’t put too much time into Vino and the other contenders, but maybe this is a sign that they are the strongest of the contenders.

But of these seven men, Moreau looked the strongest.

ASTANA
Kloden rode dutifully for Vino. When Vino cracked on the last of the climb, Kloden sat up and waited for him, guiding his leader to the line. The move probably cost Kloden about 30 seconds in the GC, and he sits one minute behind the biggest contenders. Vino is a minute and half behind him. It’s not time to abandon his domestique duties, but a decision has to be made soon. Which one is stronger?

Or is it Kashechin, who was in the chase group and now is fifth overall? The team is still working well together, but hard decisions have to be made soon. When do they give up on Vino? It’s not that time yet, but we are getting there.

MAYO
One day surge or a return to his previous form? I have no earthly idea. But he’s now in third overall. Of course, even when he was on form, he was possibly an even worse time trialist than Rasmussen.

VALVERDE
Of the major contenders, Valverde's in front. Sort of. If we eliminate the top three (Rasmussen and Mayo because of their demonstrated ability to not be able to time trial, Gerdemann because he’s in over his head), look at what the “real” GC standings are. This is an incredibly close race even after two days of climbs:

Valverde (Banesto) ---
Kashechkin (Astana) +:01
Evans (Lotto) +:02
Moreau (Ag2r) +:15
Contador (Discovery) +:19
Schleck (CSC) +:23
Menchov (Rabobank) +:28
Sastre (CSC) +:44
Kloden (Astana) +:55
Leipheimer (Discovery) +1:02
Pereiro (Banesto) +1:03
Zubeldia (Euskatel) +1:09

That’s 12 major contenders all within about a minute. Anyone who says they know anything about this year’s Tour is lying. It is wide open.

JENS VOIGT
How much do we love this guy?

Overwhelmed by Stage 8

2007-07-15T16:55:00.000-05:00

There are too many story lines from Stage 8, which means I can write a lot and leave plenty material for Stephen. Since it’s overwhelming, I’ll start with the simple stuff.

1) That was an awesome stage to watch. The first week of the Tour was really good, and it just got a lot better. Amazingly, the contenders are still close to one another despite all the carnage today.

2) Robbie McEwen was eliminated from the race because he finished too far behind the winner. Gone. Out. See you next year. Even though he was down 40 points, this is huge for Tom Boonen. The most dangerous man is gone. Having lost McEwen and Freire on consecutive days, Boonen can win the green jersey by playing defense. He just needs to mark Zabel, Hushovd, and Hunter.

3) While the contenders have been hesitant to take the race by the horns, Michael Rasmussen had no problem seizing the day. His acceleration up the last three mountains put everyone to shame. For the second consecutive day the hero gets a triple crown, for Rasmussen it’s a stage win, the yellow jersey, and the polka dot jersey.

4) Sylvain Chavanel looks lame. He wasn’t able to pretend as though he had any interest in the KoM today. At the start of the day he had a 20 point lead on Rasmussen; now he trails by 40. That’s what happens when you don’t lift a finger while the defending champ throws the gauntlet.

5) The day began with a big breakaway that included Michael Rogers. It was remarkably stupid, yet typical of Telekom to implement the worst possible strategy. Rogers wore himself out before the big mountains. When he crashed and sustained an injury that eventually forced him to abandon, it may have won him some sympathy, but even without the crash, he was doomed. Just how dumb is it to get into a breakaway a couple hours before hitting three big mountains? I’ll explain this so even the morons who run Telekom will understand. Of the 18 men in the breakaway only 1 finished within 10 minutes of Rasmussen. They all burned out. If Rogers hadn’t crashed, he would have finished, but lost so much time as to be out of contention.

6) The one member of the break who finished within 10 minutes of Rasmussen…Jens Voigt, naturally, at + 5:47.

7) Looking past Rasmussen, some riders looked great. First, congrats to Iban Mayo for having his first good TdF stage in 4 years. Cadel Evans and Chris Moreau led the charge out of the group of contenders, but the other guys with them never got organized to the point that they could put a lot of time on the riders that they dropped. As a result, they put less than 30 seconds on Sastre and Menchov, less than a minute on Leipheimer, and only 76 seconds on Vinokourov and Kloden.

8) Vinokourov owes Kloden a case of beer for pacing him up the mountain. Kloden looked very strong setting the pace for Vino. Clearly he sacrificed his own standing to help Vinokourov. I presume Astana isn’t going to pull the plug on Vino until after the first time trial, but his hole keeps getting deeper. Meanwhile, Andrey Kashechkin is now 5^th overall, nearly a minute ahead of Kloden and nearly 4 minutes ahead of Vinokourov. Vino had better have a very special time trial.

9) The time gaps in the GC are deceiving. Rasmussen has 3 minutes plus on all the pre-race favorites, but Rasmussen is one of the worst time trialists in the history of sports. Iban Mayo is also terrible. Linus Gerdemann sits in second, but this rookie is a sitting duck. So, the current top three is very vulnerable. Right now we know who has the lead, but I have no idea who has the best chance of winning.

Let's wait until tomorrow

2007-07-14T11:22:00.000-05:00

Did you ever hear of Linus Gerdemann before today? Neither did I. The way he suffered over the Colombiere I wonder if he'll make it all the way to Paris. That doesn't matter for the moment since he has a stage win, a white jersey, and a yellow jersey for his trouble. When he attacked early on the climb it looked like a fool's errand, but Tour rookies are foolish enough to take such risks, and sometimes are brave/crazy enough to make them work.

The main contenders were content to ride fast enough to limit the breakaway, but slow enough so as to conserve energy for tomorrow. None of the favorites lost time. I wonder if one week from now anyone will regret not having attacked Vinokourov and Kloden as they recovered from their crashes.

De la Fuente and Rasmussen picked up some climbing points to eat into Chavanel's lead. Either one could take it tomorrow because there are three cat. 1 climbs. If de la Fuente or Chavanel try a long breakway to score points, they may get away if they leave early in the stage. Rasmussen does not have that luxury--he's too good a rider for the peloton to allow him to escape. That means Rabobank may spend a lot of energy protecting Rasmussen to chase down Chavanel or de la Fuente. That's not a problem, unless it interferes with their ability to support Denis Menchov. Still, Rabobank looked good controlling the peloton today.

After 7 stages and one day in the Alps, none of the contenders have lost the Tour, but no one has distinguished himself as the man to beat.

The green jersey race at halftime

2007-07-13T20:42:00.000-05:00

Since we'll all be preoccupied with Alps through Tuesday, I'll focus on the green jersey now. It is halftime--5 of the first 7 days were for sprinters, and they have 5 more stages in which they can score big points remaining. Actually, 2 of those 5 are tricky because they finish on the downhill, so they may get shut out of a bunch finish or two.

Here are the current standings:
Tom Boonen 141 pts.
Erik Zabel 130
Oscar Freire 114
Robbie Hunter 103
THOR! 101
Robbie McEwen 97
Sebastien Chavanel 94

How'd we get here? Boonen, THOR, and McEwen all won stages. Zabel, Freire, and Hunter have all been close and fairly consistent. Chavanel has been consistent too, just not as close. McEwen and THOR have both suffered lousy days with few or no points.

Don't assume they'll all make it out of the mountains, and don't assume those who do make it out will have strong sprinting legs. Clearly, Boonen has the best chance to win. He's got a commanding lead on everyone except Zabel, over whom his lead is simply fair. It also helps that Boonen has proven to be faster than Zabel head to head. For Zabel (or anyone else) to catch him, Boonen is going to have to make a mistake or have something goofy happen--like, say, getting hurt in a crash. Speaking of which, McEwen is now on the outside looking in. For him to have any chance, he needs to win stages. Picking up intermediate sprint points would help too, but I can't remember him ever giving a hoot about the intermediate sprints. Boonen, apparently has started caring, as he took 4 points in one during stage 6. While Boonen's lead is daunting, he can't afford a goose egg, and those sorts of results have been very common among the elite sprinters this year.

Finally!

Stage 6: Boonen wins, Cancellara's last day in the lead

2007-07-13T12:33:00.000-05:00

Would someone please tell T-Mobile that Erik Zabel is no longer on their team?

I'm at a loss to explain why the team has spent so much time at the front of the peloton these last few days, but there they are. Everyday, reeling in breaks and making things easy for their green jersey contender... oh, that's right, they don't have one. Or maybe they are defending their yellow jersey... nope, wait... yeah Cancellara still rides for rival CSC. I don't get it.

McEwen, after looking so dominant on Stage One, tumbled even further down the points standings to sixth place and 44 points out. Boonen took back his green jersey from Zabel with a terrific sprint, not to mention the points he gobbled up on the road. Could this finally be the year that the black cloud lifts from Boonen? It's looking that way, but you know what they say about counting chickens. He's got 11 points on Zabel and 27 on Freire. Now he has to make it through the mountains in one piece.

To follow up on Astana, both Kloden and Vino started today's stage. The question is how they will ride in the mountains, and we will have our answer tomorrow. I would like to clarify that I wasn't saying yesterday the team had lapsed into dysfunction, just that the potential was there. It's easy to mouth platitudes, it's much more diffiuclt to carry someone else's water when you think you can win the yellow. It's worth watching to see how the Astana dynamic develops.

This is Cancellara's last day in yellow, which even he concedes. He has said he will support his teammates in the mountains and he graciously thanked everyone for keeping him in yellow for the best week of his racing life. And so the race for the GC truly begins.

Stage 5: The No-Good, Terrible, Very Bad Day

2007-07-12T15:21:00.001-05:00

It was a bad day for the Tour. First off, whoever designed the course route for the day needs to be dragged out into the street and beaten severely. What the hell was that? Some organizer's idea of a sick joke?

ORGANIZER #1: "Hey, I know. Let's have an undulating stage in which the final five km is all downhill on a narrow road with tons of switchbacks and s-curves?"
ORGANIZER #2: "What if the peloton is still together? It's not like the climbs are so tough as to absolutely splinter the field. These are professionals, after all."
ORGANIZER #1: "Eh... screw 'em."

It was an unnecessarily dangerous descent, and one in which we were pretty lucky not to have a horrific crash. That many riders still bunched together, all going full speed downhill, and without room to maneuver? It was just a poorly conceived stage. But the course designers weren't the only ones to have a bad day.

THE SPRINTERS
McEwen finished over ten minutes back. He's never been a great climber, but he was completely dropped on what can hardly be classified as the toughest of ascents. I think Jason's right, his wrist is worse than he's letting on. Boonen also got dropped, though he finished only about a minute back. However, what's the difference between one minute and ten when you need to finish top twenty to earn any points on the day? Both of the top sprinters left the door open for the rest of the field...

...and Erik Zabel walked right in. Zabel took enough points to leapfrog past the leaders and he finds himself back in a familiar place, wearing the green jersey. When do we start taking him seriously as a legit threat to win it? Look at the standings after today's stage:

Zabel(MIL): 102 pts
Boonen(QSP): 98
McEwen(LOT): 84
Freire(RAB): 84
Hunter(BAR): 83
Hushovd(CA): 79

Boonen is probably still the favorite, but they have put some distance between themselves and the pack. And Hushovd has to have another big stage. Just saying.

THE CLIMBERS
OK, Auge knew he was just keeping the polka dots warm, so he can't be too upset to see someone else on the podium today. But if you're gonna lose a jersey, it's nice to lose it to a teammate. Sylvain Chavanel has been all over the place in these early stages, so its nice to see him get some recognition. This is his second straight day pushing the break, and this time he gets to wear dots for his troubles. Chavanel's on his seventh Tour, and he's always put forth a solid effort, so he gets some well deserved glory with his first jersey. Sebastian Chavanel, if you haven't noticed, is doing pretty well in the green jersey chase.

But, as a reason for concern, Rasmussen picked up eight points on the climbs today. No big deal. He's still way back in the standings. but he has announced his presence. He will contest this jersey. He's not gonna let Chavanel build up to big of a lead. All the climbers need to worry. Rasmussen's out here to win his third straight title.

ASTANA
What a craptacular day for Astana.

Kloden crashed in the early going, and his team dropped back to work him back in the peloton. OK, so the team used up some strength, and got one of its contenders back in the race. Big deal, right?

Well, Vinokourov would then crash, even tearing his pants (leading to a visual I could have lived without, Vino riding with his ass literally hanging out). But Astana had already burned itself working Kloden back in. Salvodelli, for example, 7:04 back. He wasn't alone among Astana riders finishing well back. Vino was on his own, and he fought valiantly, but lost 1:20 to the field. That's a lot of time to lose before we have hit the Alps.

Which opens up the worst case scenario for Astana. They are about to do their best T-Mobile impression, even with some of the same characters. Kloden has got to think he's the team's best chance to win. Vino's not gonna concede his shot to win the Tour on his first bad day, especially since the damage is only a minute. And Kashechkin is still lurking in the wings. At least Salvodelli is clearly a domestique. We're not quite at the level of Telekom dysfunction we've seen in previous Tours, but this has got to be the story to watch headed to the Alps.

Edited to Add:
Apparently the day for Astana just got worse. Kloden has a fractured coccyx and may withdraw from the Tour. Well, at least that clears up the leadership picture.

Textbook lead out

2007-07-11T17:51:00.000-05:00

Remember the mistake in Stage 2, when Tom Boonen's lead out man won the stage. There was no such mistake in stage 4 today. Julian Dean earned his yearly salary with a superb lead out to deliver Thor Hushovd to the finishing line. They should also thank the two guys who were at the front before Dean kicked, because those guys set such a fast pace that the field was stretched out. As Dean led Hushovd, the only one close enough to get Hushovd's wheel was Robbie Hunter.

Yesterday some moron said the green jersey was a two man race. Today Boonen and McEwen finished 8th and 16th (18 and 10 points, respectively). Meanwhile Hushovd, Hunter, Freire, and Zabel scored 35, 30, 26, and 24 points each, respectively. So, this is a substantial shift in the green jersey standings

Boonen 98
Zabel 86
McEwen 84
Hunter 81
Hushovd 79
Sebastien Chavanel 70
Gert Steegmans 66
Freire 62

Yesterday there were only 2 men within 20 points of Boonen's lead, but now there are 4.
Hushovd and Hunter have given themselves a fighting chance by going 1-2 on a day when Boonen and McEwen didn't have their A-game. One wonders if McEwen is suffering physically from the crash in stage 1--since then he has been totally average. And what about 37-year old Zabel. He finished 2nd & 4th on consecutive days. He clearly still has more in the tank than I thought.

See the FDJ rider in white on the right...why does he have his head turned in the final sprint?

photo from AFP via velonews.com

THOR!

2007-07-11T11:04:00.000-05:00

Celebrate like a Viking.

The Tour Sucks because the athletes are full of dope, and there are no stars contending for yellow, and the same guy dominates the green jersey.

2007-07-10T16:49:00.000-05:00

Like Americans scoffing at soccer, the anti-cycling fan, who at best wants to ignore it and at worst demonizes it as phony, would probably nod his head in approval at the title of this post.

Not having stars isn't a problem. They will identify themselves in the the mountains. Just in case the Tour might have suffered for lack of a star in the first week, we have the exploits of Fabian Cancellara, as described in the post below.

These first few stages are supposed to be for the sprinters. After McEwen left everyone in his wake on stage one, you could have been excused for thinking he would slaughter the field and hold the green jersey all the way to Paris. Then a funny thing happened. In the last two stages McEwen finished outside the top 5 twice, while Boonen finished 2nd & 4th. Boonen's 1 point lead after stage 2 has grown to 6. That's not large at all, but what is significant is that after stage one, it looked like McEwen would have a 20 point lead by now.

The bad news is that it might already be a two man race for green. Boonen has 80; McEwen has 74; Zabel has 62. There are several other riders with greater than 40 points, but these guys need the two front runners to come up empty in a bunch sprint in order to get back into contention. Thor Hushovd and Oscar Freire keep slipping further away as they can't finish near the front. But hey, a two man race is better than a one man race, and quite honestly, Boonen is the only guy who has proven he can beat McEwen repeatedly, albeit 2 years ago.

As for the doping problem, I told you that all the riders signed a statement saying they are clean, so there.

Stage 3: Tactical Maneuvers Pay Off

2007-07-10T14:58:00.000-05:00

Two interesting gambits paid off today.

First, Auge attacked the peloton and chased down the two-man break in order to pick up a few points in the climbing competition. Only Willems reacted and the two of them closed a three and half minute gap in just about seven km. The peloton shrugged. Which allows me to poke even more fun of David Millar. Look, you make a big show of attacking on some hills to take the dots when the jersey doesn't much matter, only to completely fail to defend it the next day? How can Saunier Duval be caught so flat-footed? Are they really they weak of a team that they can't contain Stephane Auge? How is he allowed to break off and form a chase group without a single rider from Saunier Duval reacting? Just a great gamble by Auge, as he gets to wear dots for a few days, which is a pretty big deal when you're Stephane Auge.

But the real gambit was by Fabian Cancellara, who once again demonstrates how riders suddenly become better just by wearing the yellow jersey. The break looked like it was going to work, even at the last km, only to be swallowed up by the peloton in the final few hundred meters. But instead of the sprinters running to the front and taking the stage, Cancellara bolted from the pack early and held off the sprinters to the line. Just an awesome performance, and one that gives him some breathing room due to time bonuses. He should now be in yellow until this race hits the Alps. CSC did almost no work today, perferring to let the sprinter teams do some work for once, yet CSC still manages to surpass their goals: instead of merely hanging on to the yellow jersey for Cancellara, he wins his second stage of the Tour. Not bad for a time trialing specialist.

It was the kind of move I didn't think would work. How is Cancellara going to hold off the sprinting powers? But it worked to perfection. Just a perfectly timed, yet extremely bold move. I absolutely love when a guy lives up to the honor wearing the maillot jaune. Cancellara is a worthy race leader. Today, he really earned that yellow jersey he's wearing.

Cleaning Up Yesterday's Mess

2007-07-10T08:33:00.000-05:00

Two important tidbits from Velonews today, clearing up some of the carnage from yesterday's stage. I didn't want to talk about the crash until we knew who was going to withdraw from the race. The grand total: one rider. Thomas Vaitkus of Discovery is the only rider who couldn't make the Stage Three start. Pretty amazing given the carnage at the end of yesterday's stage. That probably means the rider most affected by the crash, as pointed out by Jason yesterday in the comments, is Thor Hushovd, who failed to earn a single point in the final sprint as he was caught in the crash.

Also, Velonews identified Erik Zabel as the cause of yesterday's crash. Which means Zabel caused Hushovd to earn zero points and later blocked McEwen from getting a clear look at the line. Boonen owes Zabel a beer.

Stage 2: The Wrong Guy Wins

2007-07-09T13:51:00.000-05:00

Well, that’s one way to end up in Green. Tom Boonen finally beats McEwen in a sprint, only to lose to his own leadout man at the line. Steegmans might be the first guy in the history of the Tour to be slightly ticked he won the stage.

His goal was to get Boonen to the line first. Whoops. You don’t think those five points are going to come in handy later? Boonen has exactly one point over McEwen right now. McEwen has proven himself to be a stronger sprinter. Which means Boonen needs every point he can get. Leaving five on the table is not earth-shattering, but it’s a big deal. Boonen needs to gobble up every point he can.

I’m not sure why CSC is expending so much energy to defend the yellow, but they have such a track record of terrific tactics, I’m not going to criticize. They are keeping Cancellara in yellow, knowing he’s not a real contender. Sastre is their guy. Maybe this is just practice for Zabriskie and Voigt. But I do admire their respect for the maillot jaune. You have the jersey, you defend it.

Stage 1: McEwen? Still Good

2007-07-08T12:57:00.001-05:00

How awesome is Robbie McEwen? And how has he only won 12 stages in his career? Because it seems like he’s won about a hundred.

This one was classic McEwen. Crash in the final 25km. Get dropped by the peloton. Rally back to the pack. Be nowhere near the front during the final lead out. Magically appear. Win by a full bike length.

Ho-hum.

Maybe he should try to win a stage after sawing off a leg. Maybe he should give his a rivals a 50 meter headstart. You know, just to be fair. There’s nothing McEwen cannot do. He is so far ahead of everyone else. He is clearly the best sprinter in the field.

So what hope does Tom Boonen have? Well, McEwen did hurt his wrist today. So maybe McEwen will lose something on the upcoming sprints. Maybe he won’t be able to make it thorugh the mountains. Maybe… well, Boonen better hope there’s a maybe. Because in an honest race, McEwen beats everybody.

Stage 1 Shocker

2007-07-08T12:46:00.000-05:00

In a stunning repeat of stages 2, 4, and 6 of last year, Robbie McEwen won the race today. That's really not surprising, but what was really impressive was the way his team helped him back to the peloton and all the way to the front of the pack after a crash in the final 20 km. Not easy at all. Aside from that, his burst of speed was really impressive. He passed the other guys like they were standing still.

Thor and Boonen were 2nd & 3rd, so they didn't lose much in terms of points. Oscar Freire was 7th and Erik Zabel was 13th--they did dig holes for themselves on day one.

David Millar was sneaky enough to sprint for the speed bumps that qualified as category 4 climbs, so he wears the poseur polka dot jersey. That's pretty cool, but don't think we'll stop making fun of him.

How'd that slip in?

2007-07-07T23:07:00.000-05:00

All 4 of our regular readers may recall that we have a habit of ripping ESPN's Tour coverage. It is in part because their Tour coverage blows, but also, admittedly, because we'd prefer if ESPN would just pay us to write a TdF blog. Cash would be good, but we'd settle for beer. Nevertheless, behold the first intelligently written Tour de France piece I have ever seen on ESPN's website.

Once you get beyond the fact that this is a journalist writing about how journalists view the Tour, Ms. DeSimone makes a couple great points.

We can write about teams with pockmarked histories or a remarkable surge in results. We shouldn't declare riders guilty until proved innocent, but we're entitled to rip them when they're shown to be charlatans.

People cheat across the board. We don't stop covering politics because candidates steal elections, we don't stop covering corporations because executives embezzle, and we keep writing love stories even though people stray from their partners. We shouldn't stop covering the Tour de France because some riders dope.

Vive le Tour.

Cancellara Dominates

2007-07-07T13:56:00.001-05:00

If Fabian Cancellara sticks with this cycling thing, he might one day make something of himself.

He has to trade in his world time-trialing champion jersey for yellow. Cancellara is a pretty bad man of ITT's, and even on today's short prologue, he found a way to impose his will. He flew through the course and notches his second career stage win, which was also a prologue. So he already knows he looks good in yellow.

He beat Kloden by 13 seconds and the rest of the field by 23. Hicnapie, who finished third, was 23 seconds ahead of Tom Boonen, who finished 41st. That gives you a good idea how far ahead Cancellara was. Kloden is the big gun who gets some time on the field, but those 20-30 seconds probably won't make a difference in the grand scheme of things. Every contender finished within one minute of the leader, so no one laid a horrendous egg or anything.

Really, I'm just pumped everyone is racing again. It's time for the Tour!

Team Previews

2007-07-06T10:36:00.000-05:00

Ag2r
Christophe Moreau may one day be a contender if we keep eliminating every quality rider. He’s the great French hope, and is a legit podium contender given the state of the field. But he’ll make some absurd bid for the dots and lose to Rasmussen and lose the yellow as well. (Once again, pretend we’ve discussed how terrible the King of the Mountains scoring system is).

Jason: I can’t believe I’m defending Moreau, but the guy has never shown devotion to the KoM. I doubt that he’ll start now. Your point about eliminating the elite to give him a chance is funny, but, let’s face it…he’s riding well. But he’s 36 and his team is weak.

Agributel
Stephen: Maybe they will win a stage again. Mercado had a fairly decent Tour last year before dropping out. They contribute next to nothing.

Jason: They don’t have to do much to improve upon last year.

Astana
Stephen: Kloden finally gets a team of his own. Only to find Vinokourov there. The two best riders in the field, and they are on the same team. It always worked out so well for T-Mobile, why won’t it work now? Really, the only thing that should hold Vino back from winning this thing is either a crash or his team imploding. But there is such a thing as too much star power. Salvodelli should know his role and will be great in support, but I’m going to miss Kessler, who is sitting this Tour out.

Jason: Well, I don’t think anyone thinks this is Kloden’s team, but he and Vino have made that “support the stronger rider” pact that has failed repeatedly. Since this team is not run by Telekom’s management, there is a chance they will not cut off their nose to spite their face. Besides, Vino will probably attack Kloden early and assert himself.

Barloworld
Stephen: Robert Hunter is South African. I bring that up now because there will be no reason to talk about this team once the race starts, and I wanted to point out the African in the field. This is his sixth Tour. He’s finished exactly one (he finished 97th). He is the top rider on the team.

Jason: Both Astana and Barloworld are wild card teams. Astana’s roster doesn’t reflect that. Barlo’s does. Well, it’s nice that the Tour decided to invite wild card teams not from France. (These are Swiss and British.)

Bouygues Telecom
Stephen: Thomas Voeckler has deluded himself into believing he is a contender after once spending a week in yellow. In a way, I like his tenacity in the face of overwhelming contrary evidence. And while they won’t win anything, the French teams attack like mad and might pull out a stage or something. Which is always fun.

Jason: Bogus Telekom doesn’t have any bullets in the chamber, but I’m also hoping they give an entertaining effort.

Caisse d’Espargne (always Banesto on this page)
Stephen: Absolutely loaded team. This hasn’t worked out well in the past (T-Mobile, LeMond and Hinault), but I don’t think Pereiro is going to try and vie for team leadership. Karpets is a great domestique, but this is Velverde’s team. He’s a legit contender and I think the team will work for him. He just has to finally finish.

Jason: I agree that this is supposed to be Valverde’s team, but you hit the nail on the head in questioning if he’ll finish. As for Pereiro, I like him, but he’s a paper tiger. He’s had three consecutive top 10 finishes, but in two of them he duped the contenders by making up 10+ minutes on one breakaway after he was “out of it.” If he’s allowed to lurk in the shadows, he can be dangerous. If he’s a marked man, it’s a whole different game.

Cofidis
Stephen: They will win a stage or two but not contend for a jersey or anything. A good, solid team. They earned their bid but they aren’t world beaters. I can’t think of anything else to say about them. They are the blandest team in the peleton.

Jason: As we often say, they have “peloton” written on their foreheads.

Credit Agricole
Stephen: THOR! We have some favorite riders around these parts, but rarely have they actually won anything. We tend to like the insane domestiques (Voigt), gutty back of the peleton guys (Dekker), and guys who fall off their bikes (Kessler). I make an exception for Hushovd. He’s my guy. I will root openly for him. Also, they have a couple of guys who are a real threat to win a stage. I’m beginning to really like the mid-level French teams. By the way, my love for riders named Thor does not make me delusional, his green jersey in 2005 was a fluke.

Jason: They are like the talented version of Bogus Telekom. They’ll attack a lot and have a much greater chance of success.

CSC
Stephen: Sastre finished fourth last year and his four top tens on the resume. And they have one of the deepest teams in the Tour, only without any question of leadership. That’s a pretty underrated advantage. He’s my upset pick (not much of one, I know).

Jason: How about Bjarne Riis being asked not to attend the Tour because of his admission that he was doping in his 1996 win? He wasn’t formally banned, more like asked to accept the ban voluntarily. In the case of Riis, we have an admission of guilt. We also have one in the case of Erik Zabel, who said he also took EPO that year. Yet, he is allowed to participate this year! Since the doping police are big fans of speculation in the absence of evidence, I wonder if Tour brass like Bernard Hinault or ex-chief Jean Marie LeBlanc ever took performance enhancing drugs. I mean, what are the odds that Hinault, who raced in the 70s & 80s would have taken dope in an era when pills were plentiful and testing was non-existent?

Yeah, CSC is decent. Sastre for GC, Zabriskie for time trials, Voigt and O’Grady for fun. Cancellera and Schleck ain’t chumps either.

Discovery
Stephen: Obviously, the loss of Basso hurts. Remember when Hincapie was billed as a contender? Not so much this year. And who is the guy? Danielson? Popovych? Leipheimer? It seems they will play a wait and see approach and decide who to ride for in the Alps. Not the best of strategies, but at least they have options. It’s strange for Disco not to be the dominant force in the race.

Jason: Well, tough noogies. I don’t think they can expect to win. I think Leipheimer has missed his window (but then, like Moreau, perhaps enough elite riders have been liquidated), and I think Popovych is still a bit to young. This team should aim for stages and the team competition.

Euskatel
Stephen: Zubeldia is the latest Spanish rider to be wasting his time with these guys. Mayo wasted the prime of his career, and now its Zubeldia’s turn. He’d have a shot on a different team, but with the Basque boys, he peaks as a top ten finisher.

Jason: I like Zubeldia because he rides better than Mayo and gets no pub. Yet, I can’t explain why he’s on this chump team instead of one that could support his talent.

FDJ
Stephen: Speaking of minor French teams, they are the standard bearers. It’s a weak team, but Casar’s always good for a decent Tour. I’m actually impressed by how they have established a niche for themselves in the Tour, but let’s not pretend they are contenders or anything.

Jason: One of the best ways to be an overachiever is to have an underwhelming roster.

Gerolsteiner
Stephen: Time for Fothen to step up and run with the big boys. He lost the white last year to Cunego, but there’s no shame in that. Still a year or two away, but a top ten would be a nice result.

Jason: Fothen showed promise, and at his age he can be excused for not being able to carry this team. Without Leipheimer and Totschnig on the team, it might be a miserable Tour for Gerolsteiner.

Lampre
Stephen: Cunego is taking the Tour off, so the only reason they are here is to maybe win Bennati a Green. He was 60 points out and in 3rd place when he withdrew late last year, so he should be factor if McEwen falls off his bike or something.

Jason: This should be the stereotypical Italian team that sends its bench to waste space at the Tour.

Liquigas
Stephen: Fillipo Pozzoto is the new team leader, fresh off of last year’s mesmerizing 133rd place finish, a mere three and half hours back. Luca Paolini finished in the top five in points last year and won’t ride this year. Apparently the team has dropped all pretense of trying to compete in the Tour.

Jason: Maybe they think Manuel Beltran is their leader, but I don’t think that’s going to work either.

Milram
Stephen: I’ve given up on Petacchi. He’s a terrific sprinter and there is no chance in hell he’s finishing this race. We’re talking about a guy who dropped out at the first sight of hills when he was wearing the Green Jersey. And he’s spared us the drama of when he will drop out by testing positive before the race. So he won’t even have to ride the flat stages.

Jason: Well, there’s no chance he’s finishing because the Italian anti-doping agency is having a hearing next week to ban him for a year for using asthma medication. They pin their hopes on Zabel and Andrei Grivko. Let me know how that works out, guys.

Predictor-Lotto
Stephen: The great thing about McEwen is that he almost holds his own team in contempt. He doesn’t use lead outs and his team doesn’t control the peleton for him. They are just there so he can be in the race. He just finds his closest rival, stalks him, and then destroys him. He’s awesome, even at age 36. Cadel Evans has a shot at the podium, coming off last year’s fifth place finish. The team might as well ride for Evans, McEwen doesn’t need them.

Jason: I disagree. McEwen can win that way (and did a few years ago), but he’s been using his lead out men more and more. Why not take Freddy Rodriguez’ wheel?

Quick Step
Stephen: Boonen is the biggest threat to take the Green from McEwen. The team rode well for him last year and he’s taken some stages, it’s just that he can’t seem to get over the hump. McEwen has to slow down, right? And Boonen’s luck has to turn, right?

Jason: Yeah, Boonen had a great Tour in 2005, but still couldn’t overtake McEwen. I’ll believe it after I see it.

Rabobank
Stephen: My favorite team. I have a weakness for the Dutch. Just a well-balnced team that can do everything. Menchov will compete for yellow and finish top ten. Freire will compete for green and finish top five. Boogerd will offer quality support. And Rasmussen will win the dots. Not a bad month.

Jason: A few years ago I remarked that they were slipping in terms of winning hardware. They fixed that problem.

Saunier Duval
Stephen: Millar is the team captain. He’s a great bet to win the prologue, held in London. He’s a great time trialist riding in front of the home crowd. Then he should fall off his bike (and find a way to blame it on his teammates). But not before Mayo does. I have stage 10 in the pool.

Jason: Having Mayo and Millar on the same team is just farcical. They also have David de la Fuente, who wore the polka dot jersey a lot last year. I doubt he’ll beat Rasmussen, but he might be their bright spot.

T-Mobile
Stephen: Oh, how the might have fallen. Rogers finished top ten last year. Sinkewitz is a solid contender. Eisel has a shot at the green. But this all lacks the luster of Ullrich and Zabel, eh?

Jason: Rogers is better off without the Ullrich drama and their butt-headed team manager.

Doping and My Picks

2007-07-05T22:50:00.000-05:00

Cycling’s not dead, but it’s on life support. Which is a shame, we should be entering a golden age with loads of competitive cyclists all vying for the top spot. Instead, this is the doping era in which every rider is suspect, and every race comes with the caveat of who wasn’t racing.

I’m past the point of outrage. In fact, I think we’re at the point where the cure is worse than the disease. Do I think blood doping is a good thing? No. But I don’t understand why certain performance enhancers are legal and some aren’t. Hell, I don’t know what’s a nutritional supplement and what is a steroid is anymore. I don’t think anyone does.

I think we should just have disclosure. I honestly don’t care who is doing what in any sport. Like I said, I’m past outrage. And I don’t think we can ever expect “clean” sports particularly when the line of what is legal and what is illegal is so murky. Let’s put it like this, the big scandal is over EPO, which is a naturally occurring chemical in the human body. Why should I care if cyclists artificially increase their EPO? Does anyone think they could inject some chemicals and then ride the Tour?

OK, that was depressing. On to my picks:

Yellow
1. Vinokourov
2. Sastre
3. Evans
4. Leipheimer
5. Kloden

I’d like to be cute and throw some dark horse on that list, but who? Jason has Moreau which is a sign of the Apocalypse since we both hate Moreau and spend a good portion of our time mocking him. Who’s left? Menchov? Fochen? Rogers? Those guy tap out as podium contenders. Which is not bad, but its hard to say one guy is going to step up out of nowhere.

Green
1. Boonen
2. McEwen
3. Eisel

I’m just picking Boonen to be different. McEwen has to run out of gas eventually. I like Thor, but people are wising up to the intermediary sprints where he makes his living. And someone has to crack this group eventually.

Dots
1. Rasmussen
2. Moreau
3. Kloden

Rasmussen in a walk. Again. Kloden gets a lot of points doing the heavy lifting for Vino.

2007 Tour de France Preview

2007-07-04T23:42:00.000-05:00

Unfortunately, the topic of doping can’t be avoided in the 2007 TdF Preview. I’d prefer to focus on the positive, so I’ll save comments on doping for later. Instead, I’ll begin by saying you can still enjoy the Tour despite the doping nonsense. Doping scandals may have decimated the heroes, but this is still the most exhausting sporting event in the world. There will still be 180 men racing over 2100 miles. They still must overcome mountains, heat, wind, and the race of truth. In the end, someone is going to be champion, and it will not be boring.

Not one former winner is in the field, unless you count Oscar Pereiro. In fact, Pereiro, Alex Vinokourov, and Andreas Kloden are the only participants who have finished on the podium. Last year was considered a wide open Tour without a dominant figure, and this one begins the same way.

The Scene:

There is no team time trial, but there are two very long individual time trials totaling 109 km, and there are 6 mountain stages. The first mountain stage is stage 7, on July 14, pretty much destroying the hopes of a French victory on Bastille Day. The following day will be torture in the Alps with 3 category one climbs over the last 90 km. That’s followed by a wacky stage 9 that begins with an HC mountain in the first 15 km, leading to the monstrous col du Telegraphie and col du Galibier before a 39 km descent to the finish. Stages 14-16 are in the Pyranees, and Stage 16 includes two HC and two Cat. 1 climbs.

Just to make things even cooler, the first two days are in England. It’s ironic that David Millar returns from a 2 year ban the same time that the Tour returns to the U.K.

The teams:

There are 21, which is about 3 or 4 too many in my opinion. I’m not going to preview all of them, just the notables.

Cassie d’Espargne (Banesto):

Oscar Pereiro will wear #11, not #1, since the TdF organizers can’t bring themselves to call him the 2006 champ. Anyway, he’s a long shot to win, and might be only the third best on his team, which includes Alejandro Valverde and Vlad Karpets. They are all contenders for the top 10, which means they might win the team competition.

Telekom:
Times have changed. Rather than having favorites for two jerseys and the team competition, they send Michael Rogers, who is top 10 material, and no one else.

CSC:
Another team with less firepower than usual. Carlos Sastre is good, and David Zabriskie is a contender in the time trials. Plus, they have Jens Voigt, who is always fun to watch.

Omega-Lotto:
Could they go 2 years without changing names? They still have Robbie McEwen and Cadel Evans, which means they are favorites to win the green jersey and have a decent shot at the yellow.

Rabobank:
As usual, they send a team that can do some damage. Michael Rasmussen and Denis Menchov are contenders for the top 10, plus they have a couple other guys who have won stages in the past. Michael Boogerd is retiring this year, so this will be his last Tour.

AG2r:
No kidding, but Christophe Moreau is a legit contender. In 2005 & 2006 he raced well. He also won the Dauphine Libere last month. Really, this is France’s best chance to win the Tour in years.

Credit Agricole:
Thor Hushovd is really their only threat to win a jersey.

Discovery:
Last year was disappointing, so they signed Ivan Basso. Then he ran into a problem with the doping police. That means the team is hoping Levi Leipheimer and Yaroslav Popovych can compete for yellow--outside chance for either one. Notably, George Hincapie is trying to finish his 10^th consecutive Tour.

Quick Step:
They ride for Tom Boonen to win green. The rest of the line-up is filler.

Milram:
Alessandro Petacchi is out because of a doping investigation. So, they can pin their hopes on 36-year old Erik Zabel.

Astana:
The team that couldn’t compete last year because they lost 5 riders to the doping scandal returns with Alexandre Vinokourov, Andreas Kloden, Paolo Savoldelli, and Andrey Kashechkin on the roster. Vino and Kloden have been on the TdF podium. Savodelli is a two time Giro champ, and Kashechkin was third in the Dauphine. This team is loaded.

Predictions:
Yellow Jersey

Alex Vinokourov is the best rider in the race if he's healthy. After being abused by Telekom for years and screwed out of participating last year because some of his teammates were (falsely!) accused of doping, I suppose he may be more motivated.
1) Alex Vinokourov
2) Cadel Evans
3) Chris Moreau

Green jersey

Each year I look for a reason to pick against Robbie McEwen. That’s dumb.
1) McEwen
2) Tom Boonen
3) Thor Hushovd

And just for fun, I predict Iban Mayo will abandon the Tour on Stage 9.

And finally, DOPING
The worst thing about cycling is that it is being destroyed by doping and zealous doping controls. It’s so bad that I don’t know who won the 2006 Tour. Every competitor is now a suspect, not an athlete.

I equate doping with cheating. I want the cheats removed from the race, and I want them punished. I think all riders are full of chemicals, but some are banned and some aren't. Plus, I'm sure lots of them play dumb by taking treatment from trainers who conveniently don't disclose certain information (nod, wink). Defining doping is a huge problem. For example, think about the Vinokourov/Astana episode from last year, or notice I said Petacchi is out of this Tour for a doping investigation. He is accused of doping after a non-negative drug test in the Giro. He tested positive for a steroid—one that is common in asthma medication. I’m not convinced that he cheated, but that doesn’t matter, now, does it.

The doping police ought to think about a concept we have in America—innocent until proven guilty. Currently, it seems the opposite is the norm in cycling. Another issue is with the testing. Not all tests are equally reliable. A test for a drug that is not naturally found in a human body is one thing, but tests for normal human chemicals, (EPO, testosterone, or a hematocrit) are another matter. Sure, science can tell us what is normal for human biochemistry, but it is not inconceivable that a world class endurance athlete would produce these things in elevated amounts. Just how reliably accurate are these chemicals as indicators of unnatural conditioning (i.e. cheating)? I don’t know. I’d like to think that the doping authorities would have their act together on this, but I simply don’t have confidence in them. The administrators punish people not just based upon evidence, but also upon accusations. Then they break their own rules by leaking information or employing labs that don’t follow protocol. So, no, I don’t have much faith in the riders, and I don’t have much faith in the authorities either. Unlike the doping police, the Tour organizers, media, or Greg LeMond I don’t condemn the riders based upon suspicion or accusation. But the sport is destroying itself with corruption at all levels. To top it off, check out the statement that the UCI is forcing all TdF participants to sign.

"As proof of my commitment, I accept, if it should happen that I violate the rules and am granted a standard sanction of a two-year suspension or more, in the Puerto affair or in any other anti-doping proceedings, to pay the UCI, in addition to the standard sanctions, an amount equal to my annual salary for 2007 as a contribution to the fight against doping."

Of course, the standard sanctions simply means the status quo for doping penalties, and the riders are already bound by this. The change here is that the UCI is forcing the riders to pay their yearly salaries to the UCI if they are caught. What a great strategy for fund raising! Really, this statement is an attempt to save face and make people think the UCI is doing positive things to fight doping. It’s cosmetic and, predictably, ineffectual. But it may allow the UCI to have extra cash for its Christmas party budget.

2006 TdF All-Star team

2006-07-23T23:34:00.000-05:00

It's like the all-Madden team, but with bikes.

GC rider:

Floyd Landis (Phonak): If you win the yellow jersey, you’re on the All-Star team. Yeah, he popped on one day; he made up for it.

Andreas Kloden (Telekom): Pereiro ended up ahead of Kloden on GC because of a 30 minute aberration. Kloden was outstanding in the time trials and very good in the mountains. He did slip a tiny bit a couple times in the mountains, but didn’t really bonk, and he was better than Pereiro in the mountains anyway.

Time trialist:

Serhiy Gonchar (Telekom): Duh! He won both time trials. If you combine the two time trials, his closest competitor (Landis) is 2:22 behind. So, you can argue that Gonchar wins by a mile, more or less.

Climber:

Carlos Sastre (CSC): Sastre was good in the Pyrenees and better in the Alps, where he worked himself into yellow jersey contention. Sastre made a habit of attacking and dropping people in the mountains.

Michael Rasmussen: (Rabobank): Once again I feel like a tool picking the polka dot jersey guy for this spot, but whom else could it be? Rasmussen paid his dues with an all day breakaway. He stayed with the contenders on most of the other climbs and did paced his man Menchov on a few climbs too.

Sprinter:

Robbie McEwen (Davitamon-Lotto): I thought he was too old, but he was automatic. This was supposed to be a deep field and a tight race. Instead, he won three stages and won the green jersey by 89 points.

Oscar Freire, (Rabobank): The only thing to disrupt McEwen’s dominance in the first half of the Tour was Freire, and he did it twice. I hesitate to put someone who abandoned the race on the All-Star squad, but since he left to be with his wife and newborn, I’ll cut him some slack.

Domestiques—the best category:

Jens Voigt (CSC): Jens Voigt is the type of guy you want on your team, because he’ll do anything he can to the best of his ability to help the team. He won stage 13 and set up 2 teammates in stage 15. Voigt can’t climb worth squat, but he rode in front all day in the breakaway so that he could lend his wheel to Schleck, who won the stage, and Sastre, who attacked on Alp d’Huez. He finished dead last in the first time trial; it was rumored that he was saving energy for later in the race. After doing his heavy lifting in the third week he still finished 14^th in the second time trial. Voigt is cool!

Michael Boogerd (Rabobank): I thought his best days were behind him, but Boogerd was a nice surprise in this tour. It was his pace that broke up the pack of elite climbers in stage 11. After that, it seemed he was always hanging around Menchov or Rasmussen to help them out.

Best rider not mentioned: I don’t think we mentioned Haimar Zubeldia once in three weeks, but he finished 9^th. He’s the one thing Euskaltel has going. And if he cares about his career, he’ll be going too.

Best moment of the Tour: It’s got to be the Floyd Landis suicide mission of stage 17. Take your pick of the image to remember: there was his attack on the first climb, the point where he reached the last summit with a 5 minute lead, or the moment when he showed anger and defiance pumping his fist as he crossed the finish line. However you remember it, it’s a day meant for TdF lore.

Worst moment: How about several contenders being yanked before the start because of doping allegations. I’d say the worst of them was Vinokourov because he wasn’t accused; it was the fact that the accusations against his teammates caused the expulsion of his whole team.

Worst crash: Bobby Julich’s was bad, but the worst was that 3 man crash involving Mattias Kessler, David Canada, and Rick Verbrughe. Two flipped over a barricade, and the third slid across the street. One had a broken leg; one had a broken collar bone; Kessler (former Iron Man Award winner) finished the race.

Iron Man Award: Last year we awarded none, so this year, we’ll award two. Obviously there is Landis riding with a degenerative hip that will be replaced with metal pipe next month. And then there is Stuart O’Grady, who broke his back in the first week but still finished the Tour.

Best Surprise: Just who is Cyril Dessel? He got the yellow jersey for one day as the result of the breakaway, then proceeded to ride with the contenders in the mountains as though he belonged. He finally cracked on the last day in the Alps, but still rode a fine time trial to preserve a 7^th place finish (plus best Frenchman).

Biggest Disappointment: Individual—Levi Leiphiemer almost won a stage, but was terrible in the time trials. He burned himself out in the mountains through frequent attacks and fell all the way to 19 minutes back. Team—Discovery Channel. I’ll mention more about them in the team review, but they were flat.

Mr. Free Agency: Marcus Fothen lost the white jersey by less than a minute to that guy who’s already a big name because he won the Giro. So if I want to steal a rider from another team, I take this fellow who’s just 25 but rides well in the mountains and on the time trials.

Best name (aside from Thor): Joost Posthuma.

Landis, Pereiro, Kloden

2006-07-22T19:38:00.000-05:00

Well, for a change, things went as planned. Landis is a better time trialist than Pereiro or Sastre, so he made up the difference and will wear yellow in Paris.

Carlos Sastre finally had a bad day, and it's too bad for him that Andreas Kloden had a great day. Kloden wins a spot on the podium. Oscar Pereiro had a really good race to save a podium spot. Pereiro's Tour shows what the yellow jersey can do to a cyclist. Before he got the 30 minute gift he was an MIA. Once he got the yellow jersey, he turned in the best performance of his life.

It's been an outstanding Tour to watch. Be sure to check this page after the Tour ends to see our team evaluation and the All-Star team.

Landis as Phoenix

2006-07-20T16:10:00.000-05:00

It is still true that if you play with matches you get burned. But the Phoenix rises from its own ashes to fly again.

image from wikipedia, adulterated by JG

When Tyler Hamilton went solo to win a stage in 2003, we thought that was one of the most amazing things ever. Floyd Landis makes Hamilton look mundane. Here's how...

The stage was harder. Landis attacked on the first of 4 big climbs. Landis set out on a suicide mission. All common sense predicts he cooks himself in the long breakaway and dies on the final climb.

The stakes were higher: Landis just suffered the worst day of his career. He had every excuse to sulk. Instead he gave it his all and ended up once again the favorite to take the yellow jersey to Paris.

The margin was bigger. Hamilton made about 2 minutes on the peloton on his ride; Landis toasted Sastre by 5 mintues and Pereiro by over 6 minutes.

Hamilton had a broken collarbone. Landis can match that with a degenerative hip. Plus, Landis isn't suspended for blood doping.

Floyd Landis accomplished something I didn't think was possible today. We questioned his tactics and his drive. Forget it. Stage 17 is proof that Landis wants to win this thing more than anyone else in the peloton. The Phoenix is a myth. Landis is the real deal; I stand corrected.

Landis should be the favorite to take the yellow jersey on the Saturday time trial. He's a better time trialist than Pereiro and Sastre, providing he can recover from the Alps. Comparing how these 3 got here is really interesting. Pereiro is the opportunist to exploited a 30 minute gift. Sastre is the guy who has been great and consistent throughout. Landis has been totally erratic: fine at times, remarkably dumb in tactics, dead in stage 16, brilliant and tough in stage 17.

One last note to Pereiro, Sastre, and Landis: Should someone like Kloden or Menchov or Evans attack the peloton 150 km from the finish on stage 18, chase him down, OK.